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Tour de l'Avenir Discussion
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 09-10-2015 00:29
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The Tour de l'Avenir is a race with a lot of history in the ManGame, as the class of 2015 now prepare to line up for the much anticipated Under 23 stage race.
Last year Alex Kirsch secured victory in a dramatic final stage on Mont Ventoux, tearing the race lead away from Frenchman Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier. Kirsch is now ineligible to ride as a former winner, but the rest of last year's Top 5 return. Lecuisinier and Olivier will hope to emulate Kirsch in going from podium to winner, Lutsenko will again hope to exploit the hills which helped him to 4th overall and the Points jersey, while Morton will be keen to make up for a disappointing 5th.
Looking further back, some big names have battled for the victory here in the past with 3 GT winners (Tenorio, Phinney and Pluchkin) as former winner, and 2 others (Madrazo, Alarcon) having podium places.
|  | 2 | 3 |  |  | | 2014 |  Kirsch |  Lecuisinier |  Olivier |  Lutsenko |  Dieteren | | 2013 |  Kennaugh |  Cattaneo | Kirsch | Zabel |  Waeytens | | 2012 |  Eastman |  Scarponi | Pinot |  Sagan | Scarponi | | 2011 |  Tenorio | Madrazo | Schreurs | Tenorio | Madrazo | | 2010 | Phinney |  Henao |  Alarcon | Phinney | Henao | | 2009 |  Pluchkin | Uran | Henao | Pluchkin | Bellis | | 2008 | Gesink | Intxausti |  Rodrigues | Gesink | Dees |
It's the same template as last year with an opening prologue, 3 flat stages, 2 hill stages, 3 mountain stages and a longer time trial.
La Planche des Belle Filles and Annecy-Semnoz are the two summit finishes, but the race also features Alpe d'Huez, with Stage 8 built around the historic mountain. There are ascents of both Alpe d'Huez and the Col de Sarenne, before a final stage ending descent down the famous hairpins.
Ignore the fact it says Langkawi. Was faster to use that than edit the DB to add Avenir in separately!
We are set for one of the strongest editions for a few seasons - and one that is likely to be stronger than at least next year's race as well - with most of the top contenders racing their final Avenir this year.
Lecuisinier recently finished narrowly ahead of Morton in the Tour de France after a late breakaway saw the Aussie claw back time lost after the Frenchman looked stronger for much of the race. How will their fight go, now that they are the strongest? Shikai will be their closest rival and will hope to avoid early incidents given that he ended last year's race as the strongest rider over the last two days, while Olivier has been riding well in PCT after a podium here last year acted as a breakthrough performance for him. Galta will hope to be in the mix too, while it is clear that Lecuisinier will have the strongest support in Vasyliv and Herklotz. The German, and Kudus, are strongest of the riders who get to come back next year.
| Mo | Hl | TT | | | Mo | Hl | TT |  Morton | 80 | 74 | 71 | |  Carapaz | 75 | 68 | 68 |  Lecuisinier | 79 | 73 | 75 | |  Kolar | 75 | 73 | 61 |  Shikai | 78 | 71 | 76 | |  Pereyra | 75 | 65 | 61 |  Olivier | 77 | 74 | 67 | |  Ikibe | 74 | 73 | 70 |  Galta | 76 | 70 | 69 | |  Kung | 74 | 74 | 66 | | Vasyliv | 75 | 73 | 70 | |  Dzhus | 74 | 68 | 64 |  Cort Nielsen | 75 | 73 | 70 | | Haig | 73 | 71 | 73 | | Herklotz | 75 | 71 | 68 | |  Heymes | 73 | 70 | 71 |  Kudus | 75 | 72 | 68 | | Formolo | 73 | 72 | 66 | | La Lavandier | 75 | 73 | 61 | |  Ndayisenga | 73 | 70 | 64 |
Many top sprinters have Avenir stage wins to their name - Cavendish, Ciolek, Vanderbiest, Swift, Van Stayen, Rowe, Kennaugh and Bennett to name a few. But last year saw no sprinter stage wins, as breaks ruled supreme.
This was disappointing for Rick Zabel, who did get a win in 2013, and he returns as the fastest rider here. Groenwegen, Enger and Van Poppel will lead the challenge, while Grosu will have particularly high hopes for the harder Stage 7.
For the race against the clock, Bob Jungels won last year's prologue and will aim to do so again - but Marlen Zmorka is out for revenge. Jasha Sutterlin is also likely to feature. Shikai won the longer time trial last year and may hope to do so again this year too.
| Hl | Sp | Ac | | | Hl | TT | Pl |  Zabel | 69 | 81 | 79 | | Zmorka | 64 | 80 | 80 | | Groenewegen | 65 | 80 | 79 | | Jungels | 68 | 78 | 78 | | Grosu | 72 | 79 | 78 | | Sütterlin | 64 | 78 | 78 | | Enger | 68 | 79 | 76 | | Shikai | 71 | 76 | 76 |  Van Poppel | 63 | 78 | 76 | | Lecuisinier | 73 | 75 | 75 |  Ewan | 68 | 76 | 75 | |  Verona | 61 | 75 | 75 |  Carsi | 54 | 76 | 78 | | Cataford | 68 | 74 | 74 |  Afewerki | 62 | 75 | 78 | | Haig | 71 | 73 | 73 |  Altanzul | 68 | 74 | 71 | | Mullen | 68 | 73 | 73 | | Räim | 66 | 73 | 73 | | Hamza | 62 | 72 | 75 |
Stage 3 offers a great opportunity for a puncheur to take a stage win, just as Sagan, Van Garderen, Ben Nasser and Boasson Hagen have managed in the past - and this often leads to the race leads. Well, Alexey Lutsenko is the expert at this having won the first hill stage two years on the bounce. Jay McCarthy has often been absent from Avenir, but not this year, and will back himself to end the Kazakh's run.
| Mo | Hl | Sp | | | Mo | Hl | Sp | | McCarthy | 67 | 81 | 63 | | Tanovitchii | 67 | 74 | 61 | | Lutsenko | 72 | 78 | 71 | | Lecuisinier | 79 | 73 | 67 | | Gougeard | 61 | 75 | 58 | | Vasyliv | 75 | 73 | 62 | | Hoelgaard | 72 | 75 | 68 | | Cort Nielsen | 75 | 73 | 54 | | Le Gac | 67 | 75 | 64 | | Ikibe | 74 | 73 | 62 | | Dieteren | 69 | 75 | 63 | | Watson | 63 | 73 | 60 | | Morton | 80 | 74 | 57 | |  Bablidze | 71 | 73 | 59 | | Olivier | 77 | 74 | 64 | | La Lavandier | 75 | 73 | 53 | | Kung | 74 | 74 | 63 | | Kolar | 75 | 73 | 54 |  Mohoric | 69 | 74 | 65 | | Pellaud | 63 | 72 | 63 |
A few other strong riders to mention are Zepuntke, Senechal, Altur and Ferreira. No cobbles for them to shine in, but they can still use their strengths elsewhere, perhaps in breakaways - Baugnies, Vanspeybrouck and Summerhill have shown it can be done, and indeed Altur was a stage winner last year.
Edited by SportingNonsense on 09-10-2015 00:41
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-10-2015 00:47
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I have no vested interest this year, but of course will pay close attention tot he young talents of the sport!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 18:34
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 09-10-2015 00:59
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Not much here for our "talents" but I'm excited for this race, I'm hoping to see our riders joining the break, or maybe (a very big maybe) Loizou can take part in a sprint (too hopeful there  ) Really just hoping that they get themselves some. TV time.  And I'll also be supporting their Bouygues teammates and any Eastern European talents.
Thanks for the great preview SN. 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 09-10-2015 00:59
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Lutsenko loves it here, bust up the hills again please. Thanks for the preview SN.
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 09-10-2015 01:54
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Looking forward to this race! Hopefully my younger riders can get some nice results here!
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 09-10-2015 03:17
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I really should have started a petition for cobbles at Avenir. 
Always a funny race to watch even though my guys are usually just here for the EXP. One-day I might give in to temptation and an invest into a superstar young climber.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 09-10-2015 04:23
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Lets hope Shikai can grab a Top 3, or maybe the overall win, even though it doesn't count for rankings.
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| SotD |
Posted on 09-10-2015 05:43
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Yes! Its here! The most Wellsought race of the entire season for us.
I have a historically strong team here this time around (from a Festina point of view)
Anything but the overall win here will be dissapointing after so narrowly missing out. Let the games begin!
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 09-10-2015 06:56
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Avenir time, one of the best things to look for in the season. 
This could be the year where Metinvest will have its best lineup ever ready to get a stage win. Honestly we are a bit gutted to see the same ASO-like template being used for stages, which means no longer TT for the specialists against the clock, because the TT after two hard mountain stages and several hilly ones is for the GC men, who are still somewhat fresh and thus have another stage to fight for next to those climbing stages. While 7kms long prologue is (especially in PCM15) a dice roll fest and short random thing, where anybody with 75+ prologue and great +5 day can win. Hopefully Zmorka will use the best odds and wins the dice roll.
Grosu should be the podium favourite for flat stages, so fingers crossed for proper pack sprint finishes, instead of last years breakaway fest.
Dzhus and Tanovitchii are also pretty strong riders, first for maybe top15-20 finish in GC and second one for one of his trademark attacks.
Good luck to all and see you in France!
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| roturn |
Posted on 09-10-2015 07:22
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Let`s hope Olivier can repeat the podium. Therefore I guess, he mainly needs to beat Shikai as Morton and Lecuisinier are a level above. Groenewegen for the sprint is another nice option as I hope he can battle Zabel/Grosu for the win.
Oz, Meiji and Aegon should try to work together against Festina`s super team. 3x 5 riders against 1x 7 riders is fair I`d say.
Matte and Cataford are of decent support for my team. Nothing as dominant as the other GC teams, but should work out well. Thanks for letting them ride for my team.
Edmondson being back in my colours is some kind of Avenir highlight for me. Could be of nice help in Groenewegen`s sprint train and gives Smowz some mentions as well I hope. |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 09-10-2015 07:36
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I'm not expecting too much of my riders here. Campos (who practically isn't even mine ) should hopefully attack somewhere and get lucky with a stage win from a break. Räim should hopefully be a good lead-out for Grosu, and seeing the lead-out for Zabel and Groenewegen I have a feeling he could turn out to be very valuable. Hopefully Grosu takes some wins then
For the overall, the battle will probably be between Morton and Lecuisinier, I think the Frenchie should just about be able to take the win here.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 09-10-2015 07:52
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I hope Essa and Sakari can be of good help to Magnus Cort - would be great to see the jersey shown here even though it will probably be a Swedbank rider wearing it when it happens.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-10-2015 08:16
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Not expecting anything from my 2 Minions here, hopefully they'll be decent support for Carapaz.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 09-10-2015 08:54
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Only 1 rider here, so hopefully he can shine in the breakaway. Looking forward to his new NC jersey as well
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 09-10-2015 09:03
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Expecting a battle between Morton and Lecuisinier for the overall win. Galta is on paper a top five contender, but he will get very limited support from Hoelgaard, Holst Enger and Skjerping, so it looks difficult.
With only four riders on the team, I don't expect to see any of them in a breakaway, especially as both Galta and Holst Enger will probably be counted as contenders on the GC stages and flat stages. Hopefully they'll be able to deliver some kind of result there, thinking that they will limit Skjerping's and Hoelgaard's chances.
Very nice preview, SN! |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 09-10-2015 09:30
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Yay looking forward so much to this! Not that GazTaviRali is going to fight for anything, even though we don't miss some decent enough riders, but to see the youngsters fighting on the big mountains is always so exciting
Hoping we can get some TV time by getting in the breakaways or grabbing some unexpected top 10s but I'm especially hoping that the GC fighters will deliver some nice action
Thanks for the very nice preview SN!
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 09-10-2015 09:41
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The team lining up in BLK colors is pretty damn good. Ewan is a ways off the top Sprinters but he can pop in surprises here and there, certainly he should at least be contesting the flat finishes.
Lutsenko and Senechal arn't ours but wear the colors. Alexy will be great to watch and Florian pounding the pedals hard as well i expect. Hopefully we can provide a platform from which both can impress.
Then it's over to our lesser talents in Robov, Fritsch and Fox's Losch. Possible attacking options, especially in Robov who was very close to a stage win last year. Will be good to see the trio continuing their progress at Avenir.
Should be a cracking race all round!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 09-10-2015 11:23
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Unfortunately, we didn't have anyone eligible to step in this year, but we will definately be present here scouting this race for future talents, and we'll especially keep an eye on the riders of Meiji, Oz and Fox Sports |
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 09-10-2015 11:23
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Unfortunately, we didn't have anyone eligible to step in this year, but we will definately be present here scouting this race for future talents, and we'll especially keep an eye on the riders of Meiji, Oz and Fox Sports |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 09-10-2015 11:38
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Will be fun to see if Magnus Cort Nielsen will show his talent here and get a decent result riding in De Lavals Jersey. |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
