I wanted to have my own say on this year's Continental division. Nothing more. Then I realised that the comeout was so awesomely accurate that people wouldn't even need the final standings and we could just skip forward to the 2016 season. Therefore I decided to make it a bit less accurate to make them enjoy the MG season anyway!
Jokes aside, I hope that you'll enjoy this. It will never be really accurate because I don't really have the same experience in this game, being this my first year. Nonetheless, I tried my best comparing this year's team to last year's ones in order to find out how a team had to be built to be successful. Well, I must say I didn't really find a definite answer. I just know that both good leaders and depth in each field have an equal role in a team's final score, thus believe me when I tell you that I took all these variables into account while writing my previews.
The preview will be split up into 5 "color zones". The red zone will be made up of the teams that are in real risk of ending up in the last 5 spots. In the orange zone you'll find other 5 teams that could well be in the last 5 positions at the end of the season. The yellow zone will feature 6 teams that are mostly safe unless their manager f*ked up everything but that could even promote if their manager was so clever to send the right team to the right race, everytime. Just above the yellow zone there will be 5 ambitious teams that could easily promote if they have a decent season. They make up the blue zone. And if you're clever enough you probably already found out that only the teams that had the best off season made it into the green zone. Some of them will surely promote, some others will have not to disappoint if they want to keep the positions I have predicted for them.
Then, I'm sure you're wondering "but how did you decide how the standings would look like?!". The answer is easy my little naive friend. Each field gives a certain score that sums up and finally gives the total score. Stage Races strength and depth can give up to 350 points, as the hill classics and the sprints do. Then time trials can assign up to 250 points and cobbles even less, 200. As the results of a cold mathematical analysis will never be completely correct, I added a 6th ranking, called "The Matt's Score", that assigns up to 1000 points.
Most of all, the reason why this preview won't be 100% accurate is that I don't know how many managers f*ked up their planners. And I don't even know if I did well myself.
Aargh, let's stop this. Just enjoy! If you disagree with anything you'll read in the next few posts, then don't hesitate to let me know about it!
Edited by matt17br on 01-06-2015 12:18
This is definitely the worst team of the continental division... I've never seen a team whose only option is a... cobbler. De Vocht is among the best cobblers of the division and could score them a bit of points. But as you know there are about 2 races he could end up scoring decently for Jakstar's team. They might have a decent sprint train but 77 sp is not enough for their leader to get more than 3 top tens throughout the whole season. Anything above the 25th position will be a miracle for this team. Sorry Jakstar...
25. Team Type 1
I must confess I really like the concept of this team. About half of the team is made up of real life's diabetic riders so kudos to Josh for this, Now to the sore points though: they miss a leader, even more than Fox Sports. Although Wynants is yet another nice cobbler, and Peterson is a very nice stage racer that could consistently be in GC's top tens, they don't really have neither a puncher nor a sprinter. Their best option is time trials but I can still see better teams than them. Hope they'll learn from their mistakes for the next season but for now I can just forecast a Novo Nordisk-ish season. But I really like their concept so I hope they'll grab some deserved wins!
24. Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo
Very ni.. oh wait, we're not in 2017 yet, sorry. For now, this team is just meh, although in a few years from now all Ollfardh's talents could turn into stars. I like both the focus of the team and its long term plans, but as you may know I gotta rate this year's team without looking at all those weird numbers under the XP Points and the Potential columns of the official db. Surely the team has got one of the best sprinting squads and with Stijn Joseph one of the best cobblers in the division, but Ollfardh could have bought a fair amount of punchers/climbers to secure him some points in the remaining 75% of the races he will take part to.
23. Fred WhittonRace Team
Shortly, they have Cameron Meyer and other 14 riders. Other 2 of them 15 riders are decent climbers even though will hardly top ten more than a single stage race because of the rest of their stats. Another one of those is a top time trialist for the continental. Not a completely bad team then, for the first time around they even have a definite leader, and they can aim to compete in mostly every field - except hills actually - but there's something I don't really like of the team as a whole.
22. Gatorade - SIS
The overload of Anglo-American teams didn't do well to any of them, in fact 3 of those are in the red zone as you can see. Gatorade limited the damage and secured themselves a deep mountain depth with a great leader in Brandt and an as good support cast Bizyiaremeyeirey, Ardila and Mate. They even have a decent sprinter that will suffer his low acceleration of 73 though. The rest of the team is really, really meh though, except Aramendia who will score a lot of points in the time trials. Seems like this year the new teams forgot to buy some punchers, or didn't know that hilly stages/classics make up half of the MG calendar!
Edited by matt17br on 01-06-2015 14:48
Wow, an Icelandic team! You can't tell how much I love this project, The Hobbit had such a fantastic idea, really. The best part is that more than half the team is actually Icelandic and only one riders lives a bit further from the astonishingly mysterious region of Iceland. He'll surely have a hard time to get acclimatized there, but the Man-Game legend Bakari never has a hard time anywhere, as someone said. Bakari in CT is one of the riders that everyone should watch out for. His uniqueness of being incredibly good on the cobbles, yet incredibly weak anywhere else is particularly notable and who knows, thanks to SN's idea of upping cobbles' difficulty for every race. he could keep up with the other guys. Still, I don't really think so and I actually think he'll miserably fail and those 50,000 bucks could have been spent on another Icelandic. On another note, the rest of the team is really nice! They have a decent sprinting depth, and 3 interesting climbers. The rest is not really as good but had to be expected when your team is as Icelandic as possible.
20. Sodexo ProCycling
This team is just the opposite of any other team. No leaders, but quite some depth everywhere. You could be wondering "how the f*ck is this possible Matt?!". Well you should ask the award winning graphic maker the_hoyle. This could have been a really terrific team if the manager had bought a real leader but still, just like you're not successful without depth, in this case, you're not successful without leaders! Nonetheless, I can see 2 interesting riders in Cherel and Gougeard and at least in this case the manager recognized the importance of the hilly classics. But the sprint train is one of the meh-est of the division.
19. Elta - Hellenic Post
The 2015 Man-Game season proves to feature an incredible amount of interesting concepts by teams with unseen focuses from obscure region. The young manager roro_352 from France had a very smart idea and his team turned out better than expected! He really seems to have understood how the MG works and bought valid riders in all areas, giving all the leaders a perfect support cast. Kulhavy and Rienda are two complete climbers and the first one may hopefully repeat his stunning 2014. Besides, they have a big question mark for the sprints, Volikakis. Just like a bunch of other sprinters in CT, he can sprint very well but can't do anything else. Luckily for roro, riders like Bouglas and Saramotins will always be with the Greek to help him.
18. Akzonobel - Statoil
I don't really know about this team. I had some serious difficulties placing it anywhere because at first glance it looked very good. I first noticed that they had the best TT line-up and one of the best cobbles' ones. Then I saw that they even bought a decent climber. The problem is that looking twice, and thrice, and four times again it had gotten far worse in my eyes. Let me explain: their top sprinter can't survive a single speed bump, neither can his leadout, and the rest of the sprint squad. Then I noticed the leading climber is the worst TTist in the world basically. I think that Cav-Fan made the mistake of buying too many riders instead of looking for better ones. Nonetheless, Lindeman could dominate the easier cobbled classics of the division, if they end up with a tight sprint, and that's something wow! Also, I really like their jersey, and PCM AI could take it into account when it decides who gets in the breakaway.
17. BelarusBank ProCycling
This team is mostly known for being very good in the flat criteriums that are long less than 10 kms. MG legend Thorsen can't survive the stairs in his house so let alone he will have quite a hard time with his 52 mo, 54 hi stats. Allegedly, they say he can't even survive the flat with his 61 stat. He just likes to sprint. Not that Kankovsky and Clarke are much better, huh. Hutarovich is their best bet in the flat races for all these reasons, but imo the rider who will score the most will be Ochoa Quintero that really misses some depth behind me. After relegating from PCT one year ago, looks like Ste didn't learn from his mistakes and is still too reliant on that kind sprinters. But I'd love to be proved wrong!
Edited by matt17br on 01-06-2015 13:19
Ohh, how couldn't I place this team in the Yellow Zone? This is by far the happiest team of the division, and after last year's failure they're back stronger than ever. This transfer season got them an amazing mountain depth, that will definitely pay off, and a top level leader for the stage races, Yasmani Martinez, coming from a great 2014. Sadly the sprint train is one of the worst ones in the division, with no real leader in this field, yet they can offer a decent hill depth, with Kinney being their leader and a decent TTT lineup. They will comfortably avoid the last 5 spots this year.
15. Team Carlsberg - Danske Bank
I'm sure that I'll regret placing this team at 15th at the end of the year. I'm already regretting now lol. In my defense I can say that none of my formulas could make them lower. If I wasn't the first one to post a preview, well it's just because of them, shame on you BBL! But anyway, they do have one of the best stage racers of the division, although far from being the best one, Thomas Koep. He is one of the late deals of the transfer season, and BBL has to thank Roturn for this. Meanwhile they have a decent cobbles depth, although they miss a leader that could win them a race in that field and the same could be said for their sprint train. Finally, De Maar with 74 hill is their lead puncher. So bad he doesn't have 1 or 2 points more there, cause in that case he would definitely be the strongest puncher in the division, look at his support stats!
14. Actavis - DKSH
All the guys in the team can go uphill. I think there've been veery few teams capable of offering that depth at this level: and this could both pay off and fail miserably. Fail miserably I mean in the overall standings, because there's no doubt they'll skytrain all stage long. I'm afraid that although they have 70+ puncher, they miss the 75+ guy that we usually call the leader. I could accept this for a team whose main focus are not mountains and hills, or at least have more than 1 field where they go well. But they can just aim to compete seriously in the stage races, at the very least Kuboki could deliver quite some points in the time trials. By the way, Kuboki is a terrific rider. His uniqueness could really pay off in CT.
13. OTP Bank - Slovnaft
Yet another interesting team. 4 teams, this one, Severstal, Fablok and Netia, had to divide between them the North European riders in the market, and all of them managed to build a competitive team, unlike I was honestly expecting. The exact opposite happened with the Anglo-American teams, all of them being in the whereabouts of the red zone. This team's leader for the hills is Julien Simon, who will deliver the majority of the points of the team for sure. Don't forget about the, in my honest opinion, overpaid Mezgec. Most of the teams we've talked about above were interested in him, and this contributed to inflate exaggerately his wage. The Slovenian can count on a good sprint train. Let's not forget about other riders like Fankhauser and Fejes though! I really like this team's leaders but imo they have the problem of missing some depth here and there, and this could be their biggest problem. If it wasn't for that, they could have aimed for a top 10, and why not, for a direct promotion with a wise planning.
12. Strava
Another team I found hard to place, and another team that will be interesting to follow. Strava's junkie Shonak radical abandon of the climbers, integral part of his teams in other story games, is definitely a bold decision, but I like it. I like it because, unlike other teams, the manager built a strong core around all the other scoring grounds. Favilli will be a key riders for them, besides being one of the few guys who is potentially capable of giving trouble to Vastaranta. Still probably not as strong as him, but we're really close I think. Those characteristics could win him several points jerseys, I love that 82 rec for instance. A strong core has been built around him to make sure the team will be able to battle the likes of Netia and DeLaval in the hilly classics. Then they do have the strongest time trialist of the division, Tennant. 78 tt and 77 fl is enough to scare away any other time trialist of the division. Now let's get to the serious stuff: the cobblez. Langeveld and De Backer duo is strong enough to easily be the best of the division. But that's not all: the manager got himself 4(!) other strongmen to etixxtrain the cobblez. Hopefully they won't end up 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th in all the races they take part to, even though there incredibly are better leaders in the division that could spoil them the party. Finally the old but experienced Claudio Corioni has some impressive stats, besides his 79 sp.
Now to the big question mark: if I like this team so much, why did I predict them to end up just 12th?! Well for the simple reason that despite their terrific depth and amount of riders to watch out for, they kind of miss the big points scorer. Favilli could, but sadly the division is full of that kind of riders and hilly races with a flat finish are just not enough. Tennant could be their big points scorer as well, but then again, the time trials are not enough at this level, and let's not forget that there is a shitload of valid time trialists challenging him. Finally, this is one of my favourite teams of the division, and I hope their big riders will deliver, because if they do, imo this team could aim to the direct promotion, considering I'm sure Shonak is clever enough not to f*ck up the planning.
11. Novatek - Panarmenian.net
The 2nd transfer season in CT for Selwink's East European creature got him some nice changes that should secure him an upper-half finish. The sprint train he built is impressive. Serebriakov and Hochmann are two beast sprinters for the Continental Tour. He'll inevitably face the widespread problem of the GC hating sprinter though, with especially Hochmann being quite allergic to the speed bumps. 3 riders like Sinelobov, Rudaskov and Rabon love them though. They are respectively his best 2 climbers and his best puncheur. The first and the latter do like attacking a lot though, and it's quite important when especially he could use some more depth around the 2 lead climbers. Rabon is another impressive rider for his division: 76 sp, 72 sp, 77 acc and high support stats will make us see him often in the top 10s of many races!
Edited by matt17br on 02-06-2015 21:33
Last year's beast puncher Jose Mendes found his way in talented manager Silvio Herklotz' team. Whereas last year his advantage on any other puncher was huuuge, this year he'll have a hard time repeating his amazing 2014. Nonetheless, I think he'll be yet again a key rider and he would have been so for every CT team. To be really completely completely completely honest, I don't expect this team to end up 10th. If Mendes doesn't deliver, they'll hardly find themselves in the bottom of the top 10. They can still count on valid riders like Hirt, potential top 10 finisher in a stage race, or especially on Bole, who found himself in the same situation of Mezgec, as every north european ct team wanted him. Unlike the Slovakian though, his wage isn't that inflated. Everyone makes mistakes, and what looked a flawless transfer season for the team manager, was tainted by the incorrect use of the Transfer Sheet. That costed him what would have probably been his 2nd team leader, Khripta, a stage racer that everyone would like in its team but that sadly no one will get for this year. They have a nice depth in most areas but miss a real super domestique imo.
9. Sancor Cycling Team
Brilliant and gifted storywriter Ian Butler decided to step into the Man-Game after 3 years of honoured PCM.Daily membership. The team he built is really likeable I must say: Richeze will probably win more than half of the sprints of the division and will make up more than half Sancor's points. Fortunately, he didn't make the common mistake of being too dependent on his season: he can count on a super strong sprint train, as well as a good mountain depth which includes 3 climbers whose main stat is 75. None of them will be any good in the stage races though, and even worse is that they will even struggle to get into any breakaway because of their non particularly high ftr stats. Ian can count on a good TTT lineup even though he misses a clear hill classics' leader. Consistent team, top 10 is more than doable imo.
8. In-n-OutCycling Team Powered byCarrefour
Definitely a step forward since last year's team. Maxime managed to get Novak for about 900k, probably the best stage racer of CT at the moment, thanks to his 76 mo and 76 tt. who will get him most of his points, too bad he only has 47 race days though. He isn't his only real option though: Romain Hardy is quite a good climber, Philip Gaimon a very decent puncher, and especially Alexandre Aulas could perform well in the easier cobbled classics relying on his sprint stat. He does have a decent sprint train, where the Egyptian Abdullah is the leader, but I'm afraid he won't go that far against the strong opposition of this year's sprinters. I think that this team has valid riders in every field, but if it wasn't for Novak's deal they could just aim for a lower half finish. That's why I don't think they'll go much further than the 8th place, especially if the Czech doesn't deliver as he should. Yet, I like his hill depth, and this could save him in the worst of the cases.
7. Alpina - Avianca
And finally we get to the mountain goats' team! I love this team so much, they're just so perfect imo! First off, they do have one of the best Sky-Trains of the division: no one has so many good climbers, if we don't count Indosat or Compal probably. Secondly, they have one of the club-80 sprinters, Forero, who will surely give his contribution and will be supported by the best leadout you'd wish, Cancellara, who is one of their best cobblers as well. That said, the team will stand out in the hilly classics as well, thanks to the recent additions of Janier Acevedo and Sergio Godoy. I'm sure that only a bad planning, that I'm not expecting from Stromeon, would get us to see this team out of the top 10. Most likely indeed, if all his riders do well, we'll see him in the top 5.
6. Fablok - Dunlop
DBs whizz sgdanny had a fantastic transfer season, managing to take home quite a lot of bargains. The most notable one is Lavoine, whom I'd have loved to get myself as sprinting leader. Fablok bought him for just 75k, about one sixth of Richeze's wage. He got himself a particularly strong support train made up of people like the experienced Mathieu Drujon. Besides, Fablok isn't really a big sprint train at all. Lejman will be one of the strongest punchers of the division this year, I'm just a bit concerned about his backup stats, but it's nice to see that he will count on a high fighter stat, especially considering how many wins came from breakaways in the recent years. Durasek is a Kuboki that can't sprint, meaning that he is a good climber/puncheur and also a very decent time trialist and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Fablok's points came from him. Juraj Sagan is a very good domestique for the flat races and he's the best time trialist of the team, with his 75. Finally, the team appears to have 2 very good climbers. Berard and Feillu, whom won't really score too many points but that will have more than a few opportunities to prove their strength. To finish it off, I'm a bit surprised that Danny didn't somehow use up all his cap, with about 200k (!) left to use. His team would be frightening, if he used them all. A proof is that the team looks good for a top ten already.
Edited by matt17br on 05-06-2015 20:57
