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The Rider's CT Preview
The Rider
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Welcome folks to The Rider's Crystal Ball Continental Preview. With this bare bones preview don't expect scientific mumbo-jumbo or sophisticated analyses. This preview does not take account individual team's planning, hell I haven't even given the CT calendar a good look over! .... However, I covered a lot of CT races last season so I know what it is all about and I feel pretty sure I can make a reasonably accurate prediction of where each team will finish based on each team's roster.

From the bottom of the rankings (the dirt!) to the top (the contenders) I will briefly ramble about each team and where they are likely to finish before showing the predicted final rankings.

If you think I am exact, well off or somewhere in the middle feel free to say so, it is all in good fun. So what order will the CT teams fill this table:

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The Rider
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Places: 26 - 21


The continental division is the bottom. The good news for the teams who finish at the bottom is that there is no falling down a division, that said no team really wants to finish in the bottom five. No team wants to finish in the dirt!



26: Fox Sports – Golomt Cycling
Fox Sports – Golomt Cycling can be very happy if they manage to avoid the bottom spot in the continental division. They do have one of the best cobblers in the division, De Vocht, and Steegmans is no slouch, however, it is difficult to see many points coming from elsewhere in the squad. The two aforementioned will need monster seasons if this team wants to get anywhere near 20th place.


25: Team Type 1
Definitely not a team for a promotion run. With no big names to speak off, satisfaction for this team will come from unexpected breakaway wins. That said we might see Peterson and Barton ride a decent top 10 GC here and there. Quite similar to how the Wounded Warrior team was set up last season. All about some good ol' sponsor exposure here.


24: Sodexo ProCycling
This French-African combo certainly have more depth than Fox Sports, that said they will need some big performances from their top riders if they want to crack the top 20 and avoid the dirt. Sodexo's top riders being Turgot, very capable on the cobbles with a solid sprint, and Cherel, one of the better puncheurs on the flat in the division. Baz could get some good results for the French outfit in the mountains, aside from that points from anything other than breakaways will come very slowly. Though some good shows their leaders may seem them avoid the dirt yet!


23: Lierse SK – Pizza Ullo Cycling Team
After showing little ambition in the transfer market last season's 18th place finishers look poised to finish lower down this time around. Their squad is mostly identical to last season. They will rely heavily on Joseph for points on the cobbles, however, the continental cobble sub-division is more competitive this season, to this team's disadvantage. Peeters and, new signing, Pelucchi are the team's best bets for points, but there are faster sprinters out there. De Greef and Rosa will need to make some decent mid-stage mountain breaks for this lot to avoid the dirt!


22: Verkefnid Iceland
The first Icelandic MG team are most renown as they have signed, MG legend, Amadou Bakari, worrying for them he may turn out to be one of their best bets for points! This team do possess some sprinters capable of placing against the best in the division, however, their most points will surely come from, climbers, Bagot and Løwik. Certainly a team we will see fluctuating down the bottom half of the table all season long really, in a desperate attempt to avoid the dirt!


21: Elta – Hellenic Post
This Greek team possess one of the hottest continental riders from last season, Kulhavy. The over-performing Czech will have to have another stellar season if this team wants to finish much higher than 21st place. Certainly possessing more quality than some teams in the division they can expect a steady stream of points from the likes of Ilias and Simontirakis.


20: Team Carlsberg – Danske Bank
Finishing in 23rd place last season we expect this Danish team to narrowly avoid the dirt this time around, this is largely down to the late, late, signing of Koep who really could mop up plenty of points in stage races. That said we are predicting a great season for rouleur-puncheur, De Maar: without a good season from him the dirt could be on the cards.
 
The Rider
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Places: 19-14


This batch of teams will have a major nightmare of a season to end up in the dirt. Alternately they will have to have a Euskaltel of a season to make any inroads into the top half of the table.


19: Chiquita – Universal p/b Minions
We are now getting to the teams which really should be safe in the top 20. Chiquita – Universal p/b Minions finished 24th last season and with some good additions can look to finish much higher this time around. Most of their points will likely come from, new signings, Kinney and Martinez. Aside from Chad Haga we don't see too many nailed on points scorers which explains our 19th place prediction, but with their leaders there is definitely scope to finish much higher.


18: Gatorade - SIS
An 18th place prediction for Gatorade - SIS, and thinking about it that might be a bit generous! In Aramendia they have one of the top TTers in the division and in Brandt they have someone who will look to score points in GCs more often than not. Some good depth in the mountains and hills, with no big names, may be to the team's advantage if breaks are as common as last year, and perhaps necessary as victories look difficult to come by for the team. Keep your eyes on Weiss, seen attacking late out of the bunch in PCT races, how will he fare at CT level?


17: Fred Whitton Race Team
Fred Whitton Race Team are rated as high as 17th mainly because of great performances expected from their star riders, Meyer and Moreno. Meyer's unique combo of being a top sprinter and good against the clock will probably see him being even more effective than he was last season. A rider for the cobbles, some depth in the hills and mountains should allow Fred Whitton Race Team to score in more terrain than plenty of teams, mid-table material.


16: Akzonobel – Statoil
Akzonobel – Statoil possess one of the very best TTT squads in the division. In addition they also have two of the very best continental cobblers in their team. We are putting our neck on the line by predicting that Akzonobel – Statoil will finish so high, with not many points likely to come from the sprints, hills or mountains. Consistent, fantastic, victories on the cobbles will be needed for this team to finish on the cusp of the top 15.


15: BelarusBank Pro Cycling
We really can't see this team, which was PCT last season, bouncing straight back. Their best bet for points will come from Ochoa Quintero, one of the top climbers in the division, however, he certainly isn't amongst the very best GC men in the division. They can bank on a small stream of points coming form Bazhkou, in the hills, Masuda, in the mountains and Hutarovich, in the sprints. We really don't see their armada of fast sprinters who can't handle the flat scoring many points, but they did last season, so who knows!


14: OTP Bank – Slovnaft
If we feel regretfully about placing any one team in this list then it is surely OTP Bank – Slovnaft. They are ranked so low down because apart from their two big guns we don't see many points coming in. However, their top riders are something special. They possess Simon, who really could challenge Mendes for being the top scoring puncheur in the division, he will be well supported in the hills. With the other big name being Mezgec, he may nab a podium here and there, but you can't really say he is in the top several sprinters in the division. Great depth in the hills but virtually no points likely in mountainous races and many GCs means a, perhaps surprisingly, 14th place prediction.
 
The Rider
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Places: 13-9

Inside the top half, but missing out on automatic promotion by a distance, any team which finishes here can be pretty pleased. Who knows, with some likely abandonments some teams which finish in these places may be promoted by default.


13: SanCor Cycling Team
We predict SanCor Cycling Team to finish slap-bang in the middle of the diddle this season. Lets not beat around the bush this a team built around, B-world champion, Richeze. The lead-out train looks fantastic and in Richeze they may well have the best sprinter in the division. However, Richeze is not very far ahead of the competition, so winning every other sprint certainly isn't on the cards. Points elsewhere don't look to be bountiful in prospect. Rodas should be good for some action/points in the mountains. Overall, good enough to well avoid the bottom 20 but some ways off a top 10 finish. 13th.


12: Actavis – DKSH
Actavis – DKSH certainly have no massive names, however, their depth is stunning, perhaps good enough to see them into the top 10. They have a good 5 riders who could do plenty of damage in mountainous races, including Marentes, who was one of the most stand-out riders in the CT division last season. This is a team built for late attacks, winning late attacks. Watch out for Kuboki, the sprinter, who can handle the hills and ride against the clock, could be one of the top CT riders this season.


11: Novatek – Panarmenian.net
In a stark contrast to last season this team should be knocking on the door of the top 10. Pure sprinters Serebriakov and Hochmann should be a formidable duo this season in the sprints, if they aren't sent to a million PCT races which may see them score less than they might. Rabon will be a massive card for the team and will be one of the better puncheurs in the division, he packs a decent sprint to boot. Aside from Pozdynakov and the above mentioned there isn't too much scoring to be had, but that should be enough to mount a decent challenge for a top 10 place.


10: In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered by Carrefour
Not too different from last season's squad we expect a similar season from In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered by Carrefour. That said it does look like they have slightly improved with Novak and Hardy being improvements on the outgoing Rodas and Di Gregorio. They keep Gaimon who will be a good asset to have on the hills. It will be a challenge but 10th should be in this team's sights.


9: Fablok – Dunlop
Lavoine, who outsprinted some of the very best at the PCT level last season, leads a quality looking lead-out at Fablok – Dunlop: where many of their points are likely to come from. In the hills they have Lejman, who won multiple c2 races last season, however, we don't reckon he will be nearly as effective this time around. Good depth in the hills and mountains with riders like Feillu may well see this team challenge the top 10, anything further will need some heap of luck from where we stand.
 
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The Rider
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Places: 8-1

We now move on to the top of the table contenders. These are the teams who will likely have any eye on the rankings more than anyone else, keeping tabs on where they stand in relation to the fabled automatic promotion places.


8: Strava
We are predicting a top 10 finish for Strava, we could be well off if continental cobblers have as little effect as they did last season. Strava notably possess: a great cobbled team led by Langeveld & De Backer, Favili who is one of the top puncheur/sprinters in the division and Tennant, the top rouleur/TT man in the division. No fantastic climbers or sprinters here, but they do possess some decent depth in the hills which should keep the points ticking over. Who knows? If Tennant takes an unexpected win in the flat stages here and there, this team might be sniffing around the automatic promotion places.


7: Severstal – Mercator
Severstal – Mercator posses one of the stand-out continental riders from last season, Jose Mendes. The Portuguese puncheur will be looking to continue on and mop plenty of podiums in the hilly terrain, though this team can count their lucky stars he stays after being the only team to end the transfer window in the red. Mendes's scoring prowess combined with Bole, 11th in CT rankings last season though that rank will be much harder to attain this time around, are two key reasons why we expect this team to finish high up in the top 10. Some great displays from the likes of Hirt and Golas will be needed to contemplate the top 6 though.



6: Generali – Kronenberg 1664
Points looking likely to come from a wide array of riders here make Generali – Kronenberg 1664 certain top 10 contenders for this season. In Taillefour they have the tops when it comes to the cobbles, in Rolland and Boaro they have two of the best TT men in the division. Moser will mix it up in plenty of sprints. Rolland and Malacarne could secure plenty of points in GCs, though not enough as the top favourites. Certainly the most rounded team in this preview so far, scoring points in all terrains could see Generali – Kronenberg 1664 finish around 6th.


5: Alpina – Avianca
With Soler and Weber looking likely to be great consistent scorers in the mountains and GC races and with Acevedo set to be a massive player in the CT hills - not to forget Godoy who is in the middle of the two: this is our first pick for an automatic promotion place. The aforementioned and Forero, who will likely pick up a good tally of points in the sprints, will be the mantle of this team's promotion challenge. Alpina – Avianca will have their eyes firmly on automatic promotion, following on from Bonsucro and Nutresa last season as another South American team to go straight up.


4: Indosat – ANZ
One of only two new teams to the MG that we are predicting to automatically promote. With Atapuma being just about good enough on the flat to be called one of the best climbers in the division, supported by a great climber in Nieve in addition Kruopis could be one fantastic sprinter at CT level: this team has many components to mount a real promotion challenge. No stand out riders in the hills, but plenty of depth for those mid-stage attacks - yes, sir this team should challenge for a spot well inside the top 10.


3: Netia – Norske Skog
Of the new teams we are really confident that Netia – Norske Skog will finish the highest, all the way up in 3rd. With Sinkewitz and Zeits, not to forget a good supporting cast including Der, Netia – Norske Skog comfortably have the best hill squad in the division. Domagalski should score decent points in the mountains and GCs, leading a squad with good mountain depth. Sobota will get some good placings here and there in the sprints with Morkov and Gil looking to be good cards to play on the cobbles. Bad planning alone, in our view, will only fail to see this team miss out on automatic promotion.


2: DeLaval – Kiitokori
Can DeLaval – Kiitokori go from bottom in the rankings to the very top? Well, we don't think so, not quite, but we certainly think they are shoe-ins for automatic promotion. Want to finish high up the rankings in the CT division? - Then get the top climber! That is exactly what DeLaval – Kiitokori have done in acquiring Anacona, who we predict will win the CT individual rankings at a cake walk. Last season there was Rodrigues, Arroyo and Iglinskiy - this season Anacona looks a class apart from the other climbers in the division. Rodrigues, almost single-handedly, enabled Siam Cement to move into automatic promotion last season with more than 50% of his team's points.

However, DeLaval – Kiitokori are not just Anacona. In Vastaranta they have, arguably, an improved version of Geshcke (4th in the CT rankings last season) who will be a force to be reckoned with in any hilly/flat stage - despite an increase in quality of hilly quick-men in the CT division. With the likes of Sørenson and Samoilev looking like great options for stage races, the fact they won't really score in cobbled races or pan-flat sprints doesn't matter. Surely 2nd place is the minimum for DeLaval – Kiitokori.


1: Compal - Merida
Finally we are on to our favourites for the CT division. When we say favourites, I mean top favourites. We view Compal - Merida as the most comfortably rounded team in the division, in Gilanipoor they have one of the top climbers, in Lowe and Dyachenko they have two riders who could feasibly top 5 in 90% of mountainous GCs. For the hills they have Shushemoin and Khalili... - who should be really competitive. For the sprints they have Matthews, one of the very top sprinters in the division who will be well supported. They even have one of the top 15 cobblers in the division - Kozontchuk - who could be a great points scorer. Not to forget Bauer, the great rouleur may win a TT here and there.

Yes, sir, this is the team to beat. Being able to renew riders like Dyachenko at CT level for just 50k, is almost on par with winning a small fortune. Late on in the transfer window they also had Zeits, one of the top puncheurs in the division, who they had to get rid of. If they had managed to keep hold of him we reckon Compal - Merida could have taken these rankings by 200 points + any day of the week. As it is Compal - Merida are our favourites for the CT title.


Predicted Rankings:


1Compal - Merida
2DeLaval – Kiitokori
3Netia – Norske Skog
4Indosat – ANZ
5Alpina – Avianca
--
6Generali – Kronenberg 1664
7Severstal – Mercator
8Strava
9Fablok – Dunlop
10In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered by Carrefour
11Novatek – Panarmenian.net
12Actavis – DKSH
13SanCor Cycling Team
14OTP Bank – Slovnaft
15BelarusBank Pro Cycling
16Akzonobel – Statoil
17Fred Whitton Race Team
18Gatorade – SIS
19Chiquita – Universal p/b Minions
20Team Carlsberg – Danske Bank
21Elta – Hellenic Post
22Verkefnid Iceland
23Lierse SK – Pizza Ullo Cycling Team
24Sodexo ProCycling
25Team Type 1
26Fox Sports – Golomt Cycling


Preview = Fin
 
SportingNonsense
Great to see the first preview and predictions on the board - a nicely written length to read in one go. Your predicted spread of existing teams is quite interesting, with so many of the new teams set for really strong seasons.

'Battle to avoid the dirt' may well catch on in my rankings updates through the season!
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sgdanny
Quite satisfied with a 9th prediction, where our competition on both sides is scary. Great and simple preview, thanks Grin
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Bjartne
Now I have read the previews for all the teams. Thank you! Very interesting to see how the division looks like.

But this was terrifying to read: "Compal-Merida is the team to beat"
Stop putting pressure on us, we have always been underdogs and will always be Pfft
 
Marcovdw
Anything above the dirt will do for us, so I would sign for 19th place right now Wink
Manager of Minions
 
Ian Butler
Great and interesting preview.
Middle of the pack sounds good to us Smile
 
Jakstar22
Oh Sad I see how it is Sad Well we gonna prove you guys wrong. I know it!
 
matt17br
Dammit, just out of the automatic promotion spots! Pfft
Jokes aside, that is a very nice preview The Rider! 6th is exactly where I think we'll stand at the end of the season Wink
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Shonak
Very entertainingly written CT preview, enjoyed it reading all the way. I'd gladly take 8th at the end of the first season, although I think you see the team too good. Cobblez allez!

'scientific mumbo-jumbo' lol
Edited by Shonak on 31-05-2015 13:49
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Silvio Herklotz
Very nice preview!

I would have rated some stuff a bit different, however, that's always gonna be the case Pfft
It looks like depth plays a rather big roll in your ranking, we'll see how that stuff will turn out...

By the way, yes, I've been pretty lucky SN removed Khripta and not Bole or Mendes. Embarassed
 
baseballlover312
Not dirt! Grin
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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Atlantius
Thanks for a good read.

I think you're largely right- Not quite sure that Anacona will be as dominant as you think though. His low acc will be a problem for him on several occasions I fear...

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Eden95
Very enjoyable read and predictions. I think Compal are definitely the team to beat on pretty much any terrain.

And 4th? You're too generous! We may struggle on the flat and won't factor in cobbled races.
Indosat - ANZ HQ

"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
 
roturn
I like the prediction. Nice length to read through it in once.
3-4 teams we disagree quite a bit. But most I would rate similar.
Nicely done!
 
Stromeon
Nice to see a manager who was successful at this level last year cast an eye over the CT this year and offer a concise and to-the-point overview. Would be really really pleased with 5th, there are lots of quality teams around and the fight for promotion should be very intense.
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matt17br
Eden95 wrote:
And 4th? You're too generous! We [...] won't factor in cobbled races.

At this level cobbled races are just not enough to build an entire team on. You could easily avoid them all just like 90% of the teams did this year and in the past Wink

IMO, 4th is not unrealistic for you, not at all. Atapuma is the 2nd best climber in the division and Signorini a very decent stage racer, although he is a huge question mark considering his flat stat. Still, 4th is probably where I'd place you at the moment.
Edited by matt17br on 31-05-2015 18:03
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