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Mafia IV
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-07-2017 18:46
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
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PCM$: 700.00
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The police had a good hink about it and came to some conclusions. 
I've also been hinking about it and as the detective I investigated knockout because he didn't say anything and apparently he is mafia, bear in mind I could be the confused cop but it's a lead at least (and if I die tomorrow I guess we'll know for certain )
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 11-07-2017 19:24
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Anyone have a clue? We can't just keep closing our eyes, else the Mafia will take over the town
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| weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 11-07-2017 19:35
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1387
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What normally happens at this point is that I search desperately for a lead, and end up chasing down an off-the-cuff comment to within an inch of its life until I'm eventually murdered.
I can't deny that I'm tempted.
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 02:09
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-07-2017 20:11
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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trekbmc wrote:
The police had a good hink about it and came to some conclusions.
I've also been hinking about it and as the detective I investigated knockout because he didn't say anything and apparently he is mafia, bear in mind I could be the confused cop but it's a lead at least (and if I die tomorrow I guess we'll know for certain )
I didn't say anything because at the point I saw the day started there were already enough votes to not lynch anyone that I likely wouldn't convince enough guys otherwise. I think we should use a lynch every day as that is our only chance to avoid that the mafia takes out the townies one by one.
Tbh, I think it's quite suspicious to out yourself as the detective so early that I doubt that you're one of the two investigative roles. The detective is of great importance if he can make it to the mid/endgame and by outing yourself this early you can be sure to be killed early either by the mafia or by the town if your first lead is wrong. Also I think a real detective/cc would have presented both of his investigation results as he would fear to be killed soonish after outing himself.
Asking you directly Trek: Why did you decide to out yourself so early as the "detective/cc"?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-07-2017 20:31
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
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knockout wrote:
trekbmc wrote:
The police had a good hink about it and came to some conclusions.
I've also been hinking about it and as the detective I investigated knockout because he didn't say anything and apparently he is mafia, bear in mind I could be the confused cop but it's a lead at least (and if I die tomorrow I guess we'll know for certain )
I didn't say anything because at the point I saw the day started there were already enough votes to not lynch anyone that I likely wouldn't convince enough guys otherwise. I think we should use a lynch every day as that is our only chance to avoid that the mafia takes out the townies one by one.
Tbh, I think it's quite suspicious to out yourself as the detective so early that I doubt that you're one of the two investigative roles. The detective is of great importance if he can make it to the mid/endgame and by outing yourself this early you can be sure to be killed early either by the mafia or by the town if your first lead is wrong. Also I think a real detective/cc would have presented both of his investigation results as he would fear to be killed soonish after outing himself.
Asking you directly Trek: Why did you decide to out yourself so early as the "detective/cc"?
Because only the detective can actually provide a lead, if I say nothing, we are literally sitting ducks but if I get one guy out, then there are only 2 guys left and things are simpler for us and if I'm the CC, it's clearing out a major distraction who will lead to false information.
As for why I didn't post earlier results, I honestly forgot to investigate on the first night. 
Anyway, now we have a lead of some sort, I'm not accusing you, just sharing a piece of information and knowing that there's a 50/50 chance I'm wrong. But having 1 piece of information is better than having none.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-07-2017 20:49
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Considering that a confused cop has about a 50 % chance to get a mafia allignment (assuming some kind of coin flip, please confirm @jandal) and a detective has a 14% chance to get a mafia allignment when investigating a random participant in the first night (he can investigate 14 other participants, 11 townies and the godfather will appear townie while only mafia goon and terrorist show up as mafia) there is a much bigger chance for you to be the confused cop than being the detective.
(Not excluding the possibility of you being part of the mafia though )
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-07-2017 20:58
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Team Leader
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knockout wrote:
Considering that a confused cop has about a 50 % chance to get a mafia allignment (assuming some kind of coin flip, please confirm @jandal) and a detective has a 14% chance to get a mafia allignment when investigating a random participant in the first night (he can investigate 14 other participants, 11 townies and the godfather will appear townie while only mafia goon and terrorist show up as mafia) there is a much bigger chance for you to be the confused cop than being the detective.
(Not excluding the possibility of you being part of the mafia though )
Oh, I thought the confused cop was just always wrong. This is probably good though as it means that the other detective/CC can know that he has a good chance of actually being the detective without having to reveal themselves or anything.
(Unless of course you are mafia trying to convince me that you aren't )
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Waghlon |
Posted on 11-07-2017 21:06
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7694
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weirdskyfan64 wrote:
What normally happens at this point is that I search desperately for a lead, and end up chasing down an off-the-cuff comment to within an inch of its life until I'm eventually murdered.
I can't deny that I'm tempted.
So err... can I just accuse you then? I'd imagine we can save a lot of time, you get lynched rather than murdered
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| Reveille |
Posted on 11-07-2017 21:21
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Under 23
Posts: 90
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Lynching someone will obviously just be a shot in the dark at this point, so if we vote to lynch someone we may as well lynch someone who is not being active in the game. |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 11-07-2017 21:27
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knockout wrote:
Considering that a confused cop has about a 50 % chance to get a mafia allignment (assuming some kind of coin flip, please confirm @jandal) and a detective has a 14% chance to get a mafia allignment when investigating a random participant in the first night (he can investigate 14 other participants, 11 townies and the godfather will appear townie while only mafia goon and terrorist show up as mafia) there is a much bigger chance for you to be the confused cop than being the detective.
(Not excluding the possibility of you being part of the mafia though )
How can CC have a better chance to discover if someone is mafia than detective? That doesn't make any sense, at least for me
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-07-2017 21:31
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Grand Tour Champion
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Going off that idea I would say MountainMaster could be extracted from this game 
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-07-2017 22:00
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Aquarius97 wrote:
knockout wrote:
Considering that a confused cop has about a 50 % chance to get a mafia allignment (assuming some kind of coin flip, please confirm @jandal) and a detective has a 14% chance to get a mafia allignment when investigating a random participant in the first night (he can investigate 14 other participants, 11 townies and the godfather will appear townie while only mafia goon and terrorist show up as mafia) there is a much bigger chance for you to be the confused cop than being the detective.
(Not excluding the possibility of you being part of the mafia though )
How can CC have a better chance to discover if someone is mafia than detective? That doesn't make any sense, at least for me
He has a higher chance to get "He's part of the mafia" as a reply as that reply is completely random (think as if jandal flips a coin to decide his answer) while the detective will only get back "He's part of the mafia" for 2 of 14 roles if he scouted him the first time.
Doesnt mean he "discovers if someone is mafia" as the reply of the cc doesnt mean any discovery (-> there is no way to trust his report -> as soon as the cc is sure of his actual role he can simply ignore them) while the detective will always get the real assignment unless he investigated the godfather. Hope that clears it up!
I agree with Reveille that as long as we dont have any idea who could be part of the mafia we should either lynch someone inactive or someone we would suspect to be a weak player.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-07-2017 23:29
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World Champion
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CC results being right/wrong are decided by a coin flip.
I'll give 9 hours more as there's good discussion but no lynchings yet. Also gives our Aussie and myself time to catch up properly 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| MountainMaster |
Posted on 11-07-2017 23:55
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Free Agent
Posts: 106
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jseadog1 wrote:
Going off that idea I would say MountainMaster could be extracted from this game
I don't have much time right now for posting here, but I'm watching the discussion attentively.
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-07-2017 01:11
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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We still have no real leads so I'm wondering who you would lynch vote?
I'm tending to Waghlon or trek right now. Waghlon is the last one i expect to make any decent effort to find a mafia member but there's no higher chance that he's a mafia member than everybody else. trekbmc, as imo he is either the cc or mafia and none of those helps us really to identify the mafia members, giving us propably better chances for a mafia kill but losing him could be worse as i could see him a stronger & active member for the rest of the game. What do you guys think?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| ryant |
Posted on 12-07-2017 01:22
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Posts: 2322
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lynching knockout isn't necessarily a bad idea, it could confirm trek as a CC and of course if he is correct kill a mafia member.
Now, it goes without saying trek could be mafia impersonating a detective role to misinform town to lynch random targets under the guise of being a CC...
PS, I dont think we should lynch anyone yet but knockout should be lynch no 1
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Reveille |
Posted on 12-07-2017 01:22
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Under 23
Posts: 90
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No way we lynch trek, the odds are with you knockout, but I propose both trek and the other person who has been told they are detective scout knockout this next round. If trek gets mafia again, then the odds are high knockout is mafia. If trek gets innocent, we know for sure he is the confused cop. If trek gets innocent and the other guy gets mafia, than knockout has to be mafia as one of those reports must be true. If both are innocent we learn that trek is confused cop, and that knockout is not mafia.
I don't know who will be useless, but this is the only lead we have. |
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| Reveille |
Posted on 12-07-2017 01:23
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Under 23
Posts: 90
Joined: 14-06-2017
PCM$: 200.00
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ryant wrote:
lynching knockout isn't necessarily a bad idea, it could confirm trek as a CC and of course if he is correct kill a mafia member.
Now, it goes without saying trek could be mafia impersonating a detective role to misinform town to lynch random targets under the guise of being a CC...
PS, I dont think we should lynch anyone yet but knockout should be lynch no 1
I think we should use knockout to try and test who is confused cop and who is real detective, I say keep him alive. |
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| ryant |
Posted on 12-07-2017 01:26
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
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Reveille wrote:
ryant wrote:
lynching knockout isn't necessarily a bad idea, it could confirm trek as a CC and of course if he is correct kill a mafia member.
Now, it goes without saying trek could be mafia impersonating a detective role to misinform town to lynch random targets under the guise of being a CC...
PS, I dont think we should lynch anyone yet but knockout should be lynch no 1
I think we should use knockout to try and test who is confused cop and who is real detective, I say keep him alive.
What you said sounds very reasonable and something I'm on board with
lynch no one???
Not sure if this is the time to do it, but you can correct me
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-07-2017 02:25
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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ryant wrote:
lynching knockout isn't necessarily a bad idea, it could confirm trek as a CC and of course if he is correct kill a mafia member.
First part is incorrect. Lynching me can not confirm trek as CC, it will just confirm him to NOT be the detective. He can still be a mafia member.
Reveille wrote:
No way we lynch trek, the odds are with you knockout, but I propose both trek and the other person who has been told they are detective scout knockout this next round. If trek gets mafia again, then the odds are high knockout is mafia. If trek gets innocent, we know for sure he is the confused cop. If trek gets innocent and the other guy gets mafia, than knockout has to be mafia as one of those reports must be true. If both are innocent we learn that trek is confused cop, and that knockout is not mafia.
I don't know who will be useless, but this is the only lead we have.
I see two major problems with this :
1. I don't think it is a good idea to have the "other" detective come out yet just to confirm that I'm pro-town because we need him to find the mafia members and he should not come out until he has found at least one mafia members.
2. How should we know whether anyone who claims to be the detective is really one? I can see at least one mafia member fake-claiming to raise chaos and forcing me lynched / the real detective to present himself.
Also just keep in mind that there is a 50 percent chance that trek will get a mafia alignment for me again so that is no sure indicator about my role.
And if we go noone -> night kill -> me -> night kill then we're quickly down to a 8 vs 3 without many leads. The alternative of having our detective wasted on confirming that I'm a pro town guy isnt any better.
Instead I would want to propose that the other detective should search until he has found at least one mafia guy as well before coming out with my identity. There's a reasonable chance that he will still be alive in 2-3 days and that way we can actually have sth more out of our detective than just confirming the identity. Also we have the additional hint of the number of "protown" / "mafia" that can help us differating between CC & detective (someone with a 50:50 distribution is much more likely to be CC than the detective). Until then trek has time to figure out his role as well.
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