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PCM.daily Stats Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 26-05-2018 09:39
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
Looks like I'll have to do a severe adjustment of Yates' stats after this stage.
Stars are never ever based off one stage! The only stat that will take a drop is REC, and even then if he bounces back to a Top3-5 rider today i'd question whether that's even needed.
It was more my amazement at what was happening on the stage rather a balanced statement!
His 7th place in the last Tour shows that his rec is decent and I was expecting that after this Giro it would be raised but the 72-73 which he already had looks more likely now. All the other stats I think look fine for him.
Rec is an unexplored stat imo because to really make a difference there, wider differences need to be made but that is risky to do for the GC riders which is why nearly everybody is bunched in the 70s
Edited by Tafiolmo on 26-05-2018 09:57
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 26-05-2018 10:30
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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Thats true.. but still I think 73 is the way to go. He obviously started the Giro in great form and that-s what costed him in the final week. If he had peaked later, he could-ve been in the fight for Top5 (or even better) like last year's Tour. Remember he also had a 6th in a Vuelta 2 years ago so he seems more than fit for 3 weeks
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| jeremyrobin |
Posted on 27-05-2018 19:11
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Under 23
Posts: 59
Joined: 29-09-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Pinot : 73rec<74
Meintjes : 78mon<77 or 78mon with 73/74rec
Chaves : 75rec>74
Geniez : 76mon<77, 72rec<74
Formolo : 78rec>75
Woods : 76rec>74
Bilbao : 72rec<74
Aru : 72rec<74 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 27-05-2018 19:16
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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I wouldn't downgrade too much based on this giro, it was tough as f.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 27-05-2018 20:01
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Upgrade Simion's SPR for sure  |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 27-05-2018 20:17
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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I think it's a good idea to be careful with downgrading recs because a number of these riders like Woods etc have shown good rec last season and most stats for last season are still relevant. Also if anything Formolo needs very good rec was bad early on but surprised me how strong he was on the last two mtn stages.
Also welcome suggestions about Carapaz for example better 78 or 79 mtn and suggested acc and res for him.. I think he should be graded similar to Lopez but not quite as good as Lopez does have more of a track record.?
Will look at Simion when next doing some stats
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| jpgm97 |
Posted on 27-05-2018 22:10
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Free Agent
Posts: 100
Joined: 14-08-2015
PCM$: 200.00
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I don't really understand why Quintana mountain stat was lowered, when he hasn't raced any grand tour. I mean compared to other 81 climbers he has the lower resistance stat. altought he has a high recovery, but similar to Nibali, Landa and Bardet. I think it's too soon to tell, and you should wait for the Tour, where he should be in top of his shape, to decide if he deserves a downgrade/upgrade. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 26-11-2024 09:36
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 27-05-2018 23:03
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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jpgm97 wrote:
I don't really understand why Quintana mountain stat was lowered, when he hasn't raced any grand tour. I mean compared to other 81 climbers he has the lower resistance stat. altought he has a high recovery, but similar to Nibali, Landa and Bardet. I think it's too soon to tell, and you should wait for the Tour, where he should be in top of his shape, to decide if he deserves a downgrade/upgrade.
It's not actually lowered!!!
I'll explain, I've decided until the Tour to only have Froome on 82 mtn. Riders like Quintana, Landa, Bardet and Porte etc are all 81 so I can have all of them ready to compare their stats with the same mtn (they have notes next to them) If you look I have done some changes on their acc, res and rec and I will see how they go over the races upto and the Tour.
Also it will be interesting to see who Movistar have as leader and how Quintana and Landa will compare and how the other riders interact.
As there is no DB coming out till after the Tour, think of the top mtn stats as work in progress. As long as Quintana does not have a disasterous Tour he will be back on 82 for the next DB.
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| gvarv |
Posted on 06-06-2018 05:57
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Amateur
Posts: 20
Joined: 22-06-2015
PCM$: 200.00
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I think overall that the game is too kind on REC stats. It is virtually impossible to have rider crack like Yates did during the Giro, and very little reason to try to save your rider for a later stage as long as you have a 70+ REC. |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 06-06-2018 07:42
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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if you don't handle properly shape peak you can, I lost an easy top 5 in third week with a several series of -3/-5, falling 12th (79 MO / 77 HI / 75 RES / 75 STA / 74 REC my main stats for GC) with riders like 75/74 MO breaking me over 3/4' in 12km mountain finish
not sure how REC effectively make difference, in particular in short stages
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 06-06-2018 14:36
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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I agree about the rec stat but have no actual proof of how it would perform with greater differences. I have spoken a number of times with the other members of the team (mostly Matt) in the past about widening the rec stat but in general the overall opinion is that it would be risky and could ruin the game if not done well.
Imo to really make a difference the gap between high rec riders like Nibali and lower rec riders like TVG should really be greater but just how big a difference should there be? are we taling 15 pts, 20 pts etc.
The riders that really need good rec are GT contenders over the three weeks (consistency) top sprinters, some top doms and TT specialists that perform in the final week.
Most of the time I have free to focus on PCM is taken up with updating stats with little time for anything else like in depth testing that the rec stat really needs. If anybody has done any rec testing over a GT that would be brilliant to use as a case study, maybe one has already been done if so point me in the right direction.
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| oreclub |
Posted on 07-06-2018 15:47
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Junior Rider
Posts: 41
Joined: 03-02-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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I think Xandro Meurisse should be upgraded in MON from his current 68. |
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| clappy2191 |
Posted on 10-06-2018 16:23
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Amateur
Posts: 3
Joined: 03-06-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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GThomas deserves 80 mountain |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 10-06-2018 16:40
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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I disagree, imo 78 or 79 maximum |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 10-06-2018 16:40
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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I disagree, imo 78 or 79 maximum |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-06-2018 16:41
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Wait until le Tour would be best.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| purepasd |
Posted on 10-06-2018 17:08
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Domestique
Posts: 541
Joined: 23-01-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Thomas has been one of the very best climbers for a while now. I agree on 80 if we only consider MO stat, but taking his very powerful secondary stats (res, flat, end) in mind, I'd go for a strong 79 instead. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 10-06-2018 22:16
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Thomas as things stand at the moment will be 79 mtn and as said his secondary stats are very high (like Dumoulin and Jungels) so effectively he'll ride at least 1 point better than he actually is.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-06-2018 22:43
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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How about an upgrade for Tim Merlier? His results this year have been quite good. He does slighly better in uphill sprints, but all in all I think he's the fastest Belgian sprinter at this point (and yes, I know how bad that is).
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| clamel |
Posted on 11-06-2018 17:26
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1361
Joined: 13-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Now first I haven't read all the 29 pages so it might already been addressed.
The two different DBs, one for 2016NC and one for 2017NC. Are the riders having exactly the same stats in these both DBs ?
If you have the 2016NC then I think Miles Scotson shouldn't have the Aussie champion jersey since he won it in 2017. Perhaps it's academical if ones DB starts with the Aussie NC and no other races before gives Miles the shot of wearing a jersey that should have worned by Jack Bobridge who of course is suspended.
Then testing out some races when converting Paris-Nice and Giro for Leon40 I reacted on two things very fast.
This years breakaway king in the Giro,Ballerini surely didn't have any issue in going on breakaway in any of the stages I saw him compete in. I do think he perhaps should be having a little increase even if this DB is for 2017. He surely not pop up much more aggressive riding based on the stats he now got playing him in career.
Then on the other side Lars Bak made several breakaways and fought for KOM points. Even had the jersey for some stages. I think he should not show that big breakaway lust since he is more known for pulling the peloton in the later stages.
Not sure if it's the high Fighter-stat on Bak that should be lowered and perhaps higher flat making him more what he really is IMHO. A super-engine. He should be a power for Greipel in the sprint-train, even when the AI handling this.
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“We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” 
"If thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee."
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