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ICL20 - Previews & Statistics
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| redordead |
Posted on 18-02-2021 09:09
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Ripley wrote:
Certainly not, Senechal will surely score so many points that your team will do much better. Predicting CT teams is tough because they have a lot of flexibility booking their races and can play to their strengths and mostly avoid their weaknesses. D2b's prediction would be more accurate if you had to race a rigid calendar, like the WT teams have to.
I wasn't trying to say we will for sure finish last in the end season points ranking, that's also of course down to race selection, planning and luck.
I simply agree that any previews taking into account squad depth should place us at the bottom, since we don't have any 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 02:24
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 19-02-2021 00:25
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DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING
I suspect I might be the only manager who cares about this but here goes.
The model predicts PureBlack Racing edging out Suntory Orangina in a tight two horse race. The final podium spot is between 5 teams, the model gives Deutsche Bahn Development Team the 3rd place.
The model uses the same Terrain weightings as for WT and CT but I suspect these could usefully be tweaked to better represent U23 scoring opportunities, maybe next year.
The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.
| Team | Score | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | Diff | % | | 1 | PureBlack Racing | 2831 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 2 | | | | 2 | Suntory Orangina | 2809 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -22 | -1% | | 3 | Deutsche Bahn Development Team | 2463 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 6 | -368 | -13% | | 4 | Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team | 2418 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -413 | -15% | | 5 | La Fundación | 2404 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 5 | -427 | -15% | | 6 | Équipe Development Citroën | 2365 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -466 | -16% | | 7 | Aru4Ever - CPA | 2240 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 19 | 1 | -591 | -21% | | 8 | Giant Asia Racing Team | 2103 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 15 | -728 | -26% | | 9 | Aviva Futura Project | 2037 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 12 | -794 | -28% | | 10 | Astana U23 | 2036 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 22 | -795 | -28% | | 11 | Los Gauchitos | 1992 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 16 | 8 | -839 | -30% | | 12 | Alpine Boys | 1986 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -845 | -30% | | 13 | Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar | 1930 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | -901 | -32% | | 14 | Podravka Cycling Team | 1850 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 13 | -981 | -35% | | 15 | Magnum - Madshus Youngsters | 1760 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 23 | -1071 | -38% | | 16 | Síragon Project | 1667 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 19 | -1164 | -41% | | 17 | LBO Development Team | 1583 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 22 | 16 | -1248 | -44% | | 18 | Omroep Zeeland - Lammerts Youth Team | 1579 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 7 | -1252 | -44% | | 19 | EF Cycling School | 1532 | 17 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 18 | -1299 | -46% | | 20 | Team Privatbank | 1438 | 21 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 9 | -1393 | -49% | | 21 | KBC - 23 | 1157 | 22 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 14 | -1674 | -59% | | 22 | BlackBerry Limited U23 | 1156 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 12 | 19 | -1675 | -59% | | 23 | Bora - Argon18 Development Team | 1018 | 20 | 21 | 6 | 23 | 17 | -1813 | -64% |
U23 Team Top Rider per Terrain
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | | PureBlack Racing | Christian Lecomte | Loïc Astier | Loïc Astier | Loïc Astier | Jeffrey Ross | | Suntory Orangina | Luis Crawford | Luis Crawford | Jonathan Wright | Mark Safford | Salif Mane | | Deutsche Bahn Development Team | Jürgen Reuter | Jürgen Reuter | Carl Ilsanker | Lutz Berg | Pantheras Dimas | | Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team | Geoffrey Razic | Henk Vanden Boer | Noah Thompson | Neil Whittaker | Samuel Willems | | La Fundación | Alex Ortega | Alex Ortega | Wenyan Liu | Mark Parreño | José Miguel Patrick | | Équipe Development Citroën | Bernard Schauls | Guillaume Amar | Bernard Schauls | Sébastien Hochart | Eric Dufour | | Aru4Ever - CPA | Xavier Ela | Vjatsheslav Kovlenko | Matteo Savino | Gratien Casse | Simon Eden | | Giant Asia Racing Team | Dion Koejoe | Chinnawat Wongsa | Ulrich Brouwers | Dinar Nitsesky | Dong-chul Won | | Aviva Futura Project | Max Fritsch | Max Fritsch | Max Fritsch | Andrew Shelton | Peter Broomhead | | Astana U23 | Stefano Zappino | Carl Ibraev | Rustyam Ivanov | Aidyn Sarsenbaev | Aidyn Sarsenbaev | | Los Gauchitos | Ernesto Urízar | Ernesto Urízar | Germán Ollero | Rubén Gorriarán | Andrés Cruz | | Alpine Boys | Fabian Auinger | Maximilien Nogues | Sebastiano Malnati | Marco Scrivano | Marco Scrivano | | Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar | James Smith | James Smith | Kirill Makukhin | Kirill Makukhin | Elias Leinonen | | Podravka Cycling Team | Stanimir Maričić | Stanimir Maričić | Walenty Kuranty | Walenty Kuranty | Janez Horvat | | Magnum - Madshus Youngsters | Jacob Brundby | Jacob Brundby | Henning Sundbaum | Erkan Karlsson | Fredrik Sundqvist | | Síragon Project | Markus Vega | David Frígola | Markus Vega | Vsevolod Butenko | Vsevolod Butenko | | LBO Development Team | Toomas Tohver | Toomas Tohver | Aras Butkus | Gijsbrecht Michiels | Otto Pichlmann | | Omroep Zeeland - Lammerts Youth Team | Nico Roembiak | Nico Roembiak | Nico Roembiak | Geoffery Janssens | Matt Wadsworth | | EF Cycling School | José Agustín Gonzalez | Zdzislaw Kolodziejski | Marcel Hornig | Susumu Yamazaki | Zdzislaw Kolodziejski | | Team Privatbank | Bronislav Polach | Ilari Kolesov | Bulat Saigidov | Bulat Saigidov | Ignác Kolecko | | KBC - 23 | Zoltán Koncz | Zoltán Koncz | Zoltán Koncz | Philippe Ousemane | Erich Vychodil | | BlackBerry Limited U23 | Mike Payne | Robbie O'Mao | Jules Mathieu | Danny Page | Charles Logan | | Bora - Argon18 Development Team | Rafael Diaz | Julian Jansen | Marc Kümmel | Rafael Diaz | Daniel Kopp |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 19-02-2021 00:38
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U23 battle looks super-hard...I didn't realize that I had the worst MO skill, but yeah, I didn't find anything close to a decent level with scouts in my focus regions, and that's it. I was hoping for something higher in sprints and hills anyway.
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| OZrocker |
Posted on 19-02-2021 02:52
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It's amazing what a year in the development system can do, Giant Asia were one of the lower teams last season but now we have the top hill rider, 4/5 capable leaders (even if I had to alter their development to stay under 72.1 ) and might even finish top 10. Holding on to pot 5 and 6 talents for an extra year really can make a difference, but it means we probably won't be as good for season 2021.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 19-02-2021 03:05
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That U23 prediction looks very accurate for KBC since the only actual talents on the roster are TT riders. But darn it we are going to be fierce in all the team time trials.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 19-02-2021 05:57
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If we get 3rd in the U23s, I'll be delighted 
Thanks for the great work again D2B!!
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| Shonak |
Posted on 19-02-2021 06:19
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Tour de France Champion
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Thanks D2B, the merry U23 shuffle continues. Usually Fundacion's talents leave earlier the squad than most competitors but I am happy that after last year with a heavy focus om hills and tts we are now.compeitive in three.completely different terrains.
Hopefully racing will be good and not feature too much weird AI 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 20-02-2021 13:32
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Nice to see that we'll be somewhat competitive in the hills and on the cobbles during the U23 season  Last place in sprinting is even worse than the main team, but that was expected. Thank you for the preview(s)!
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| Vali |
Posted on 20-02-2021 13:41
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Well relegation has to be the goal again for us seemingly.
Hopefully our Talents can show themselves in the U23 circuit.
Credits to the_hoyle for my avatar. |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 20-02-2021 14:26
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Mid-table for a new U23 team looks pretty decent, especially given that we only have two 22y.o. riders, all others being younger. Just have to somehow keep Ollero below 72.1 next off-season
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 20-02-2021 14:28
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Thanks for all the thanks.
The modelling gave my excel skills a good runout
Pleased to see the U23 preview gained some interest.
Good luck to everyone in the coming season and feel free to point out where the model didn't do a good job and I might be able to improve it for next season
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 20-02-2021 16:45
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Continental Tour 2020 Preview
Climbers
Leader rating:
- MO;
- RES and ACC primarily;
- STA REC secondly to allocate borderline cases.
Team rating:
- Quality of the leader;
- Number of domestiques with high MO skill (>74);
- MO skill valor of the best domestique;
- Possibility to line up a second rider as leader in another race, without weakening too much the team around first leader.
Versatility bonus:
I took TT as the obvious choice. It's surely the skill that can help a GC contender to score good points in some stage races and surely in GT.
Bosch ahead with the best stage racer of CT, but Shell following with two super strong leaders but problems about deep scoring, Magnum is near with another great stage racer, then many teams with good riders who can score well, race planning will be crucial here. Polestar and ICBC without a top scorer but with a solid team for mountains. EF, Pedal Africa and Tierra del Fuego can really break into top spots with a good planning. Latvijas looking for points with clever choice of the calendar.
Punchers
Leader rating:
- HIL;
- ACC;
- STA and RES for finishing touches.
Team rating:
- Quality of the leader;
- Number of domestiques with high HIL skill (>74);
- HIL skill valor of the best domestique;
- Possibility to line up a second rider as leader in another race, without weakening too much the team around first leader.
Versatility bonus:
Again I took TT, for the chance to score points in short stage races with a TT stage, where there aren't big mountains.
Often this follows what MO skill already shown us, and that's for Bosch, but they have to take care about available race days, same for Magnum. Guinness will try to score his best here with a top rider for CT. Again Pedal Africa and ICBC with the deepest teams, matched by Magnum, with likely the best top3 in this terrain. Mid table very crowded, can bring some unexpected results also to one-star-rated teams, with luck and good planning.
Time Trialist
Leader rating:
- Considered a kind of 75/25 TT/PRL;
- RES and FL for adjustements.
Team rating:
- according to the best team that is possible to line up in a TTT.
Versatility bonus:
MO because it is fundamental when there are climbs in the TT route.
Usually not many surprises here, Brugse Zot in front with the best rider in TT/PRL combo, but the real difference is in secondary stats. Magnum, Polestar and Strava are anyway very close and they should score massively in TT. Then many teams aiming for podiums: Millenium, Nordea, Equinor and Guinness over others. Many stage races riders can skip pure TT races due to race days problems. Tierra del Fuego, Visit Ukraine and Polestar with great teams for TTT. Magnum and Bosch can destroy enemies in uphill TT with great climbers.
Northern Classics
Leader rating:
- COB;
- FL and STA;
- HIL and RES.
Team rating:
- 3 stars to best teams;
- 2 stars to those who can race with at least 2 good riders/3 decent ones;
- 1 star for both who has just a leader or not at all.
Versatility bonus:
SP, a real powerful gun when the race is decided in reduced bunch, that's quite a frequent scenario in many northern classics.
VIP Mobile with one of the best northern specialist that CT has ever seen, moreover well supported by the team. Brugse Zot is getting ready to clash with a strong leader and likely the best team. Magnum and Trans Cycling will try to profit by this rivalry with solid leaders and decent teams, Guinnes can score some deep points too. Most of the other teams are unprovided to deal with this kind of races, except for EF, Nordea and Tierra del Fuego.
Sprinters
Leader rating:
- 60/40 for SP/ACC;
- in order of importance FL>RES>STA.
Team rating:
- Not everytime more good sprinter you have more stars you get;
- Quality and number of domestiques with high FL skill;
- Presence of a good leadout man with decent SP/ACC plus good FL/RES;
- Possibility to bring more sprinters in clashing races at the same time without weakening too much the team around first leader.
Versatility bonus:
HILL, not every race/stage decided by a bunch sprint is flat like a wooden board, that can be weighty in saving energies for the last kms or even to don't get dropped if the race turn harder.
Equinor and Cymru Wales dominating with the best trains and finishers. Shell and Strava right a foot behind with sreat sprinters as well. Guinness with good alternatives emerges from the bunch, where almost every team can soon or later catch a win. Tierra del Fuego and in particular Visit Ukraine looking to make life hard to pure sprinters in hilly routes.
Continental Tour 2020 Prediction
- Looking at the calendar;
- Counting how many races should reward points to each skill (taking in account also secondary classifications and single stage bonus points).
- Setting a weighted numeric value to each stat;
- Multiplying the total number of stars of each category to his related factor;
- Summing all 5 absolute valors.
Skill Values
MO -> 10
HIL -> 10
TT -> 4,5
COB -> 4,5
SP -> 8,5
Final Output: the Ranking
| 1 | Magnum - Madshus | 238 | | 2 | Bosch Cycling Team | 225,5 | | 3 | Brugse Zot - Trek | 210 | | 4 | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 187 | | 5 | Equinor Pro Cycling Team | 179,5 | | 6 | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 173 | | 7 | Shell Pro Cycling | 169 | | 8 | Trans Cycling Team | 164,5 | | 9 | Guiness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 161,5 | | 10 | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 155 | | 11 | Tierra del Fuego | 150 | | 12 | Education First x Palace - Nippo | 148 | | 13 | Team Cymru Wales | 140,5 | | 14 | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 134 | | 15 | Strava - Avanti | 132,5 | | 16 | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 128 | | 17 | ICBC Cyling Team | 125 | | 18 | Nordea Bank – SAP | 118,5 | | 19 | VIP Mobile | 106,5 |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 20-02-2021 19:47
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Nice work Trek, logical and well presented.
Interesting your top 3 are the same as my model.
You rated Hills higher than I did which probably explains some of the variance. I didn't create separate terrain ratings for each division which is one of the many weaknesses of my model. It will be interesting to see who has the more accurate predictions
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 20-02-2021 20:24
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I enjoy df_Trek's preview the most so far.
In all seriousness, I'm fine with the low rankings most previews have put me in. As we stated previously, this first season was all about RP and just building regional foundations going forward. You can especially see that in my dev team. We have no particularly good prospects on any terrain, but I'm just happy to be giving more young Irishmen and Canadians ride so that the talent pool develops.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 21-02-2021 00:13
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@D2B I noticed that our ranking is very similar, and actually yes, hills seems to be linked to most of the variances (Guinness case is proof of that). Anyway the real weakness of every model is that it's impossible to take into account about race planning, which can change everything.
Also I don't think that the biggest gap will be between 3rd and 4th team...this may lead to a "boring" promotion fight, but I'm sure is going to be much entertaining.
Another weak point can be that I doubt VIP Mobile will score the lowest, with a so high AVG rider who can score big points in WT races too.
@BBL your team isn't easy to judge, considering that HIL stat can be tricky to predict, and Guinness has an average team for every terrain but Mountains. But in CT you can score well with a shrewd calendar.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 21-02-2021 01:09
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This prediction uses an approach I developed to estimate points scored based on OVL rating and rider type. Because each rider is predicted separately it does not take into a account team structure. So it is likely that teams with a lot of depth in one area are over-predicted (e.g Team Cymru). Since I had already done most of the work for this figured I would post the resulting predictions. Likely flawed at a team level, don't stake your fortunes on it.
System doesn't work for U23, so sorry no prediction there.
Scarily my own system has KBC much closer to the bottom than the others.
| WT | | | 1. Grupo Argos - Quala | 10,941 | | 2. Italo | 9,356 | | 3. Allianz - BMW Cycling Team | 8,756 | | 4, Alitalia | 8,368 | | 5, Baku Synergy Plus | 7,915 | | 6. Team BP | 7,828 | | 7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 7,821 | | 8. Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - Cipollini | 7,713 | | 9. Deutsche Bahn | 7,702 | | 10. Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | 7,551 | | 11. Sevilla Cycling Team | 7,221 | | 12. Suntory Lucozade Sport | 6,996 | | 13. KBC Godiva | 6,914 | | 14. Liberty Seguros | 6,857 | | 15. Credit Suisse | 5,845 | | 16. CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 5,497 | | 17. Santos - Euskadi | 4,740 | | 18. Vegeta Cycling Team | 3,302 | | CT | | | 1. Equinor Pro Cycling Team | 4,456 | | 2. Brugse Zot - Trek | 4,190 | | 3. Team Cymru Wales | 3,871 | | 4. Shell Pro Cycling | 3,693 | | 5. Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 3,115 | | 6. Bosch Cycling Team | 2,999 | | 7. Magnum - Madshus | 2,827 | | 8. Trans Cycling Team | 2,665 | | 9. Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 2,570 | | 10. VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 2,496 | | 11. Tierra del Fuego | 2,423 | | 12. Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 2,404 | | 13. VIP Mobile | 2,295 | | 14. Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 2,289 | | 15. Strava - Avanti | 2,287 | | 16. Nordea Bank - SAP | 2,259 | | 17. ICBC Cycling Team | 2,176 | | 18. Education First x Palace - Nippo | 2,146 | | 19. Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 1,599 |
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Ripley |
Posted on 21-02-2021 07:55
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Thanks, Ulrich! Solid method, I like it.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 21-02-2021 08:22
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Just a small table with the top 11 riders by their total stat points, plus a few selected riders with a lot of stat points for their wage:
| Last Name | Team | Total | AVG | Wage | | Sagan | Team BP | 998 | 80.0 | 1915 | | Kwiatkowski | Ceramica Panaria | 987 | 80.9 | 2150 | | Phinney | Brugse Zot - Trek | 983 | 79.8 | 1290 | | Mohoric | Grupo Argos - Quala | 983 | 79.6 | 1675 | | Boasson Hagen | Trans Cycling Team | 981 | 77.1 | 700 | | Aru | Ceramica Panaria | 979 | 81.7 | 1670 | | Van Keirsbulck | Filliers – Mora | 977 | 81.0 | 1400 | | Quintana | KBC Godiva | 977 | 81.8 | 2005 | | Ludvigsson | Alitalia | 974 | 79.0 | 950 | | Herklotz | Bosch Cycling Team | 974 | 80.4 | 1280 | | Degenkolb | Deutsche Bahn | 974 | 80.0 | 1425 | | | | | | | Jungels | Credit Suisse | 968 | 77.8 | 600 | | Komisarek | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 966 | 78.6 | 540 | | Puccio | Credit Suisse | 959 | 76.5 | 400 | | Pöstlberger | Team BP | 953 | 74.9 | 250 | | | | | | | Würtz | Deutsche Bahn | 935 | 73.4 | 160 | | Hansen | Team BP | 931 | 72.6 | 130 | | Hnik | KBC Godiva | 921 | 71.9 | 100 |
Is it any wonder that my first two targets were Sagan and Lasse Hansen? And my last pick just had to be Pöstlberger instead of a TT specialst?
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 21-02-2021 12:19
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Well, 11th seems to be the most common outcome for my team - I'd be absolutely happy with that!
Quite much agree with trek's evaluation of TdF, although I feel that just one stat point more for a leader would have given us one star more in some categories. Hence, I believe a lot could be possible with good daily form on various terrains - which obviously holds for anyone, though. It will come down to good planning - a domain I'm not quite mastering yet
Thanks to all those who post some predictions here, really interesting to read and to watch the differences according to the model used
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| OZrocker |
Posted on 21-02-2021 12:35
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
| WT | | | 1. Grupo Argos - Quala | 10,941 | | ... | | 5, Baku Synergy Plus | 7,915 | | 6. Team BP | 7,828 | | 7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 7,821 | | ... | | 13. KBC Godiva | 6,914 | | 14. Liberty Seguros | 6,857 | | ... |
I like this prediction! Don't expect it will actually come true, but it's nice to be in the top half of the table again
I'm not sure how we got into 5th here, because aside from Dumoulin most of our leaders are really 2nd tier riders at best and are spread evenly across rider types. Even with their recent shift to a new generation I would be very surprised if Liberty Seguros finish that low. Betancur and Herrada will likely be split between races due to their low number of RDs, and top climbers can be very valuable for WT points through the Grand Tours.
The whole WT looks a lot more even this year, with only a few teams who are clearly above or below the average. Argos and Allianz aside, I think 3 of the top 5 spots could be very close and I think the previews so far are showing that. CT is a bit less even, with Equinor and Brugse the clear standouts. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedal Africa finally get promoted too - the years of development have left them with very nice squad depth.
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