What I forgot is to mention who actually did the most accurate preview considering the current standings.
For PT, it's SN's Slightly Mathematical PT Preview 2020. This prediction has an average deviation of 3.82 places per team - which is about 0.5 spots worse than the "community preview".
In PCT, jandal's Expert prediciton in the PCT Roundtable analysis 2020 p/b “The Conglomerate” is more accurate than "common sense", though, deviating by 4.3 spots on average compared to the 4.5 of the community preview.
And finally, the most accurate CT prediction so far was one that was sent in by PM, with an average deviation of 3.8 places - which is well below the community's 4.5. As I initially said these will be anonymous, I won't publish the contributor's name for now - I'll ask all of them if they're OK if I do so in the next posts. The best "public" prediction once again came from SN, with his Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2020, having an average deviation of 4.0 (which is still very good).
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
One of your previews I have to questions because if 7 out of 8 had us last and our average is 19.25 I think that means somebody put us 14th. They were clearly in a post-election fog.
Thanks for the update, obviously most cobbled races are over, but I still hope Baugnies redeems himself in C2HC and scores big in Faso We'll see where we end up, but like I said before, top-10 would be great!
After the GT season is done - and thereby lots of race days of the corresponding team leaders - let's take another look at the current standings vs. predictions. Just as last time, the latest rankings are compared with the median prediction. Let's again start with the PT:
PT Rankings #7 vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Evonik - ELKO
1
1
0
Isostar - Specialized
2
3
-1
Team Puma - SAP
3
8
-5
Gazelle
4
5
-1
Festina - OAKA
5
7
-2
Moser - Sygic
6
2
+4
King Power
7
17
-10
eBuddy
8
4
+4
EA Vesuvio
9
11
-2
Bennelong - Mitchelton
10
9
+1
Generali
11
6
+5
Air France - KLM
12
12
0
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
13
13
0
ISA - Hexacta
14
20
-6
Aegon - Peroni
15
19
-4
Volvo acc. by Spotify
16
15
+1
Aker - MOT
17
10
+7
Grieg-Maersk
18
16
+2
Team UBS
19
14
+5
cycleYorkshire
20
21
-1
Rakuten Pro Cycling
21
18
+3
Indosat Ooredoo
22
22
0
While we had 8 teams predicted correctly last time, we're down to 4 - but that's just half of the truth. Because on average, the predictions even have improved - from an average deviation of 3.37 places, we're down to 2.91! Moreover, only three teams have a deviation of more than 5 spots (compared to 4 last time) - and none is more than 10 spots away from the prediction anymore.
ISA - Hexacta, who were 15 places higher than predicted last time, are still 6 spots above the estimated 20th place; the most underestimated team is now King Power, who instead of being involved in the relegation fight are pretty safe in 7th place!
It's the other way around for Aker - MOT, who are far from being safe despite a GT win! Gazelle, who were the most underperforming team last time (+13) now are even one spot above the predicted 5th place, while Generali have at least moved up five spots and "only" trail the prediction by 6 places now.
In terms of overall win, Team Puma - SAP obviously were pretty much underestimated, but Herklotz with a huge, huge TdF definitely put them in the title fight. Evonik - ELKO and Isostar - Specialized on the other hand were expected that high up, while Moser - Sygic are rather below expectations
Unlike at the previous update, the community prediction no longer is the most precise one - it's even down to 3rd place! Two proven MG experts - knockout (by PM, avg. deviation 2.36) and SotD (PT Preview 2020, avg. deviation 2.73) - have submitted a prediction that's more accurate currently - let's see if that still is the case by the end of the season!
Let's head one division down and take a look at the PCT:
PCT Rankings #4 vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Farfetch Pro Cycling
1
2
-1
Repsol - Netflix
2
3
-1
Mapei
3
1
+2
MOL
4
6
-2
Bakkafrost
5
12
-7
Xero Racing
6
11
-5
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
7
4
+3
Duolingo
8
10
-2
Polar
9
7
+2
Minions
10
14
-4
DK - SVA Zalgiris
11
16
-5
Podium Ambition
12
15
-3
Berg Cycles
13
9
+4
Desigual
14
5
+9
Valio - Viking Genetics
15
20
-5
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
16
8
+8
Kraftwerk Man Machine
17
18
-1
Andorra Cycling Project
18
26
-8
Swisslion Cycling Team
19
13
+6
Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
20
17
+3
GCN Racing
21
21
0
Nordstrom - CA Technologies
22
23
-1
Azteca - NBCSN
23
24
-1
Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling
24
19
+5
Aramco DP
25
22
+3
Campari Asahi Procycling
26
25
+1
There's only one single team whose current position corresponds to the prediction - does that mean that the community prediction is bad? Not that much; another fact is that we have no single team that's 10 or more spots off the prediction, compared to 4 last time. In terms of average deviation, we're down from 4.5 to 3.5, so the prediction has become more precise as well.
Andorra Cycling Project were the huge overperformers last time, being 17 spots above the predicted last place. They're still 8 spots ahead, but the trend doesn't look good for them. It's a similar story for Valio - Viking Genetics, who were 15 places better than expected - that margin is down to 5. So the most surprising team currently probably is Bakkafrost, who are still well inside the Top 10 and even still in the promotion fight!
The most underperforming team according to the prediction is Desigual, just like in the previous update. They will have to fight for a Top 10 instead of being in the promotion mix. But Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam probably had the most disappointing period, as they have dropped from -1 to +8, which is only marginally better than Desigual.
On the other hand, MOL, who were the most underperforming team in the last update (+12), are even two spots higher than predicted now - gaining 14 places in this period definitely is a great result!
Last time, jandal had the most precise preview, which was part of the PCT Roundtable analysis. It's even still better than the community preview - but by a very tiny margin (3.46 vs. 3.5).
And last but not least, the lowest division, CT:
CT Rankings #4 vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Carrefour - ESPN
1
2
-1
Centovalli - Fiat
2
4
-2
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
3
3
0
Philips
4
1
+3
Tryg - Ritter Sport
5
5
0
Los Pollos Hermanos
6
15
-9
Project: Africa
7
11
-4
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
8
13
-5
Sauber Petronas Racing
9
7
+2
Strava
10
9
+1
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
11
19
-8
Guave's Sunlight Cycling
12
12
0
BNZ Cycling Team
13
8
+5
Trans Cycling Team
14
14
0
Team Europcar
15
10
+5
Eddie Stobart
16
17
-1
Nordica - Enel
17
6
+11
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
18
16
+2
McCormick Pro Cycling
19
20
-1
Sotto il sole di Riccione
20
18
+2
As in PT, four teams currently are exactly on their predicted place. However, we also have the single worst prediction across all divisions - a deviation of 11 spots, which is quite a lot in a league with just 20 teams... Overall, it's a deviation of 3.1 places, compared to 4.5 in the previous update.
And that single worst prediction still concerns Nordica - Enel, who are in the same spot as last time. The one-dimensionality of many of their riders was always mentioned as a potential issue - it's probably safe to say that it's no longer a potential, but a real issue.
The other most underperforming teams are BNZ Cycling Team and Team Europcar, who both are 5 spots behind the expectations - which must feel really bitter especially for the latter, who definitely were rather expecting to fight for promotion.
Sauber Petronas Racing were even ranked behind Nordica - Enel in the previous update, but they have clearly woken up and are just 2 spots behind the expected 7th place now.
On the other hand, we still have the same two teams who are punching way above their expected weight: Los Pollos Hermanos, who still have an outside shot at direct promotion, and Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team, who didn't get a lot of credit pre-season.
Overall, we have exactly the five predicted teams on the direct promotion spots - and given the projected scores and current shapes of the teams, that doesn't look very likely to change.
Once again, knockout (by PM, avg. deviation 2.7) proves his well-deserved expert status, while baseballlover312 (by PM, avg. deviation 3.1) and SportingNonsense (Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2020, avg. deviation 3.1) exactly match the community preview's precision. The post-season update will show us who's our Top CT expert!
The 2020 season is over, and I still owe you the results of the community prediction! Let's see whether the common wisdom was better than any single predictor - and we'll also find out whose upcoming prediction for the 2021 season should be taken more seriously than others!
Final PT Rankings vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Isostar - Specialized
1
3
-2
Evonik - ELKO
2
1
1
Team Puma - SAP
3
8
-5
Moser - Sygic
4
2
2
Festina - OAKA
5
7
-2
Gazelle
6
5
1
King Power
7
17
-10
Generali
8
6
2
eBuddy
9
4
5
EA Vesuvio
10
11
-1
Bennelong - Mitchelton
11
9
2
Grieg-Maersk
12
16
-4
Air France - KLM
13
12
1
Aegon - Peroni
14
19
-5
ISA - Hexacta
15
20
-5
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
16
13
3
Volvo acc. by Spotify
17
15
2
Team UBS
18
14
4
Aker - MOT
19
10
9
Rakuten Pro Cycling
20
18
2
cycleYorkshire
21
21
0
Indosat Ooredoo
22
22
0
From 8 correctly predicted teams in the first intermediate standings to 4 in the previous down to just two this time - exact predictions seem to be really difficult. One reason obviously was season-long leader Evonik dropping to 2nd in the final part of the season. Finally, only the bottom two were predicted accurately. Although the number of deviations of more than 5 spots dropped to 2 (was 3 last time), the average deviation went slightly up again, from 2.91 to 3.09.
Nonetheless, we have a total of 13 out of 22 teams predicted within 2 spots of their final outcome - a really good result I'd say!
Who are the two huge outliers, though? On one hand, we have King Power, who finish a whopping 10 spots above the predicted outcome - and this despite a really fluky Rafa Reis! Lutsenko - 7th in the PT individual standings being the division's top puncheur - obviously was the main contributor, but also breakaway hero Dion Smith did a great job.
Fun fact: the prediction that was most accurate for King Power was... the_hoyle's lazy man predictions He saw them in 8th place, so only one spot away! Also jph who put them in 9th was very close - all others had King Power outside the Top 10, most even outside the Top 15... Surprise, surprise!
It was completely the other way round for Aker - MOT. Two main issues contributed to them not only slightly disappointing, but even relegating: The Giro - despite Taaramäe's win - was not good enough in terms of total points. No stage win, yellow jersey claimed only very, very late in the race - that was a big factor. But also Taaramäe and Kwiatkowski not working very well together resulted in a loss of points - it's not unlikely they would both have scored more if they had raced together less often. We'll never know...
Nobody saw them relegating; the one who came closest was myself, as I had them in 15th (despite my prediction being by far the worst for PT ^^). Well, shit happens - let's see if they can bounce back directly!
Overall, 3 of the top 5 and 3 of the bottom 5 were predicted correctly. However, whereas the bottom two even were an exact match, nobody had PT winners Isostar - Specialized on top - SotD came closest, predicting them to finish 2nd. As said before, pre-season favorites and long-time leading Evonik - ELKO dropped down to 2nd, which was only predicted correctly by... knockout himself
But who's the overall PT prediction winner? As we said before, the community prediction had an average deviation of 3.09 spots per team. Two predictions were slightly more precise, so individual wisdom triumphs over the collective one! We have SotD's Pro Tour Preview 2020 in 2nd place, with an average deviation of 3.00.
And the winner is... knockout, who submitted his predictions by PM! With an absolutely fantastic average deviation of only 2.09 spots - almost one spot per team closer than SotD - he proves that he's a true MG expert. Congratulations! And just to say - he correctly predicted the final outcome for 8!!! teams! (whereas SotD had just 1, but many 1-spot deviations)
Now let's move on to PCT - the division with the most teams, and probably the hardest one to predict. How did we do here?
Final PCT Rankings vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Farfetch Pro Cycling
1
2
-1
Repsol - Netflix
2
3
-1
Mapei
3
1
2
Desigual
4
5
-1
Xero Racing
5
11
-6
MOL
6
6
0
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
7
4
3
Kraftwerk Man Machine
8
18
-10
Bakkafrost
9
12
-3
Duolingo
10
10
0
Polar
11
7
4
Valio - Viking Genetics
12
20
-8
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
13
8
5
Minions
14
14
0
Berg Cycles
15
9
6
Podium Ambition
16
15
1
Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
17
17
0
DK - SVA Zalgiris
18
16
2
Swisslion Cycling Team
19
13
6
Andorra Cycling Project
20
26
-6
GCN Racing
21
21
0
Aramco DP
22
22
0
Azteca - NBCSN
23
24
-1
Nordstrom - CA Technologies
24
23
1
Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling
25
19
6
Campari Asahi Procycling
26
25
1
What immediately hits in the eye are the 6 exact predictions - whereas we only had 1 in the previous intermediate standings. On the other hand, we also have 7 teams with a deviation of more than 5 spots (thereof 5 with a deviation of 6). 15 out of 26 teams were predicted within just two spots of the final outcome - again, that's a very good result!
On average, we have a deviation of 2.85 spots per team - which is clearly better than what we did for PT! And also clearly better than in the intermediate standings #2, where it was 3.5. It also has to be said that it was the division with the most "raw material", hence a single bad prediction (this time it wasn't me ) has less of an impact on the overall outcome.
As in PT, we have two major outliers, with a deviation of 8 and 10 spots. And this time, both are actually positive surprises!
Let's start with Kraftwerk Man Machine. What's the reason why the team finished 8th instead of 18th, as predicted? Well, we can't name a single reason, as the entire team is the reason! It's really hard to value team depth in the predictions - and it was exactly that depth that once again paid off for them! And of course Nerz' ToA win, we still have to mention it
jph (7th, via Skype) and myself (9th) were closest to their actual result, while the other predictions reached from 1st to 25th; most seeing them outside the Top 15, however.
But also Valio - Viking Genetics had a really good season, way better than predicted - which makes their disband even sadder
Of course, Manninen was the main reason for their overperformance, being PCT's strongest sprinter. But also Penasa's 2nd place in ToA has to be mentioned. They did a great job - too bad they're gone now!
Quite a lot of predictions saw them as relegation candidates, and definitely most had them outside the Top 15. The highest prediction for Valio was actually... 12th place jandal (by PM), Sykkel_Freak in Sykkel's 2020 PCT Preview and myself got it right.
In the end, we had four promoting and four relegating teams each predicted correctly, although only Aramco DP finished exactly on the predicted spot (I'm sure they'd have preferred it otherwise). The surprising promoting team is Xero Racing, who weren't even inside the Top 10 according to the prediction. However, redordead (PM) and jph (Skype) had full faith in them and accurately predicted their final spot, while ivaneurope's completely inaccurate preview (PCT) had them even one place higher. Nobody else saw them as promotion candidates - and even jandal only had his team in 13th.
The slightly surprising relegating team is Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling. However, predicted to finish 19th, relegation was always a real danger - and especially Preidler being really, really bad in too many races was too much of a handicap for the team. And while nobody predicted them that low, 4 predictions actually saw that relegation coming, with SN's Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2020 getting closest, having them in 24th. redordead, Sykkel_Freak and jph saw Adastra relegating as well.
So, what about the overall outcome? As already written above, the average deviation of the community preview is 2.85. And we have two predictions averaging below 3.0 as well; one is redordead, whose prediction submitted by PM resulted in an average deviation of 2.92 spots. And we have Sykkel's 2020 PCT Preview, exactly matching the community preview's result of 2.85! Congrats!
And last but not least, the lowest division. The fewest teams - the best result? Let's take a look!
Final CT Rankings vs. Median Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Carrefour - ESPN
1
2
-1
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
2
3
-1
Philips
3
1
2
Centovalli - Fiat
4
4
0
Tryg - Ritter Sport
5
5
0
Project: Africa
6
11
-5
Los Pollos Hermanos
7
15
-8
Sauber Petronas Racing
8
7
1
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
9
13
-4
Guave's Sunlight Cycling
10
12
-2
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
11
19
-8
BNZ Cycling Team
12
8
4
Team Europcar
13
10
3
Trans Cycling Team
14
14
0
Strava
15
9
6
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
16
16
0
McCormick Pro Cycling
17
20
-3
Nordica - Enel
18
6
12
Eddie Stobart
19
17
2
Sotto il sole di Riccione
20
18
2
Despite CT being the smallest division, we actually have the biggest outlier across all division, with a 12 spots difference between prediction and reality. With two 8 spots deviations added to this, things don't look that great...
On the other hand, 4 out of 20 teams were predicted accurately, and 11 teams finishing within 2 spots of the prediction isn't bad, either. But still, with an average deviation of 3.2 spots, the CT's community prediction is the worst of the three. How did this happen?
Well, there's Nordica - Enel - THE big mistery pre-season. Lots of red stats, which made a lot of predictors think they'd finish much higher up - three of them even saw Nordica as promotion candidates!
jph's approach of valuing backup stats - RES rules - proved to be most accurate, as he saw then in 16th. With the second lowest prediction having them in 11th, we see that common wisdom not always is best ^^
But we also have two positive surprises! First are Los Pollos Hermanos, who, due to some disbands, even achieved first-season promotion (along with two other teams, to be fair)! Their success is mainly linked to one name: Baugnies. The Belgian turned out to be an even more amazing weapon on the cobbles that many thought, even achieving big results in the HC category as well as dominating multiple CT races.
However, SN saw this coming, as his Slightly Mathematical CT Preview had them exactly in 7th! bbl (PM) with a predicted 9th place wasn't that far off, either.
The second team finishing 8 spots higher than predicted is Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team. Katrasnik is obviously the name everybody thinks of, but the team's best scorer (by far) was Eiking, finishing 3rd best puncheur of the division.
The only one who saw this coming was Nemolito (PM), who even ranked them in 10th place in his prediction! Nobody else saw them inside the Top 15 - you definitely proved them wrong! So I don't know if hillis will be happy if everyone should predict Gjensidige to promote this year
We already said it - the overall 3.2 average deviation isn't really good, given that CT is the smallest division. And it therefore is no surprise that we have a total of 3 predictions with a better outcome - and actually all three of them have an average deviation of 2.7 spots! These are the predictions by bbl (PM), knockout (PM) once again, and SN's Slightly Mathematical CT Preview!
Congrats especially to knockout who submitted the most accurate prediction in two out of the three divisions; only his conglomerate contribution for PCT wasn't really good - or even not good at all by his standards
Thanks to all who participated - I think I'll do a "meta-prediction" again this year, collecting all the published predictions around as well as predictions in the corresponding thread, by PM or Skype. See you soon!
Happy to see I at least tied for best CT preview, and also overperformed the community prediction by a spot! Some very surprising results though when it comes to a few teams.
Great read and great initial overall. Thanks for putting this together!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
We'll see where we end up, but like I said before, top-10 would be great!
He saw them in 8th place, so only one spot away! Also jph who put them in 9th was very close - all others had King Power outside the Top 10, most even outside the Top 15... Surprise, surprise!
) has less of an impact on the overall outcome.
