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Slightly Mathematical PT Preview 2020
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2020 00:20
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Format
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders receive a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- I've also taken a dip into some of race planners, to help inform some of these decisions
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Moser - Sygic | 1 |  | Gazelle | -16 | | 2 |  | Isostar - LimeBike | 2 |  | Grieg - Maersk | -10 | | 3 |  | Air France - KLM | 3 |  | Team Puma - SAP | -4 | | 4 |  | T-Mobile | 4 | | Air France - KLM | 1 | | 5 |  | Festina - OAKA | 5 | | Isostar - LimeBike | 3 | | 6 |  | eBuddy | 6 | | Moser - Sygic | 5 | | 7 | | Team Puma - SAP | 7 |  | Aker - MOT | -9 | | 8 |  | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 8 |  | Generali | -11 | | 9 |  | SPAR - Siam Cement | 9 | | Festina - OAKA | 4 | | 10 |  | Farfetch Pro Cycling | 10 |  | Aegon - Lavazza | -3 | | 11 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 11 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 3 | | 12 | | Grieg - Maersk | 12 | | eBuddy | 6 | | 13 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 13 |  | Team Tinkoff | -1 | | 14 | | Team Tinkoff | 14 |  | EA Vesuvio | -6 | | 15 |  | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 15 | | Evonik - ELKO | 4 | | 16 | | Aker - MOT | 16 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 1 | | 17 | | Gazelle | 17 | | SPAR - Siam Cement | 8 | | 18 |  | Repsol - Netflix | 18 | | T-Mobile | 14 | | 19 | | Generali | 19 | | Farfetch Pro Cycling | 9 | | 20 | | EA Vesuvio | 20 | | Repsol - Netflix | 2 | | 21 |  | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 21 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 0 | | 22 |  | Podium Ambition | 22 | | Podium Ambition | 0 |
Well, the good news for teams who don't like what they read later in the thread, is that these predictions were pretty terrible for a few teams 
Gazelle didn't dodge relegation, they won the title. Generali didn't relegate, they were Top 10. And T-Mobile did relegate, far from a 4th place finish.
Some teams were accurate though!
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2020 00:21
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Team Manager
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Category Tier Lists
Hills
| Evonik - ELKO | | | Aegon - Peroni | Air France - KLM | | Moser - Sygic | King Power | Team UBS | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | EA Vesuvio | Isostar - Specialized |
The combination of MAL and Skujins sees Evonik top our tier list - no team comes close to having two strong options on the hills this year.
Next up are the teams of the two top puncheurs on paper, De Bie and EBH for Aegon and Air France. Moser, King Power and UBS are next, and while Kinoshita will be up there with Sagan, Lutsenko and Ponzi, Rakuten's support is not quite as comparable, just pushing them down to the next tier with Vesuvio and Isostar.
Stage Races
| | Aker - MOT | | | | | | Gazelle | Festina - OAKA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Bennelong | Puma - SAP | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Air France | Moser | Generali | Indosat Ooredoo | Tinkoff | eBuddy |
There's an interesting spread in the tier lists here, with three teams topping out - the teams of Taaramae, Madrazo and Lecuisinier.
Taaramae is rated as third of the three, but Aker can also call on Galta, and that takes them just above Gazelle and Festina.
There's a gap to the next two. Bennelong have the strongest #2 in Haig, backing up Morton to give them good options through the year. Herklotz will of course be a threat for Puma, but they do then have less in support than others.
There's quite a gap to the next set that I could even leave the tier list at 5, but we can't have that, so the next set of 6 teams are included too.
Sprints
| Festina - OAKA | | | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Evonik - ELKO | ISA - Hexacta | | | eBuddy | Moser - Sygic | | | EA Vesuvio | | | | Puma - SAP | Bennelong | Aegon - Peroni | Air France - KLM |
There've been nicer years for Sprinters in PT - none of the Grand Tours looked particularly appetising to a top pure sprinter, which is a shame. We'll have to see how that has affected the sprinters field across the races this season.
When we do get sprints, Festina top our tier with Coquard, followed then by Volvo, Evonik and ISA with their leads in Ahlstrand, Van Stayen and Degenkolb.
It's Grosu and Bewley for eBuddy and Moser, before the next teams down. Now Groenewegen was the top scoring sprinter in PT last year - if he can repeat that, then we'll have to see that Aegon were underrated on this list.
Time Trials
| Isostar - Specialized | | | | | | | | | | | | Grieg-Maersk | | | cycleYorkshire | Generali | King Power | | | | | EA Vesuvio | | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | |
The first of two categories where there is a clear gulf between first and second in our ratings. Phinney may have been trained in the Mountains, but it his time trial skillset that his season looks to be mostly based around - and for good reason too.
The talents of Wurtz place Grieg into 2nd, just clear of cycleYorkshire (Coppel and Durbridge), Generali (Dennis and Oliveria) and King Power (Brändle).
Wirtgen is already fairly well thought of by the formulas, and leads Vesuvio into 7th on the tier.
Cobbles
| Grieg-Maersk | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Tinkoff | Moser - Sygic | | | | | | | Evonik - ELKO | | | | Isostar - Specialized | Team UBS | eBuddy | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Gazelle | Generali | |
Grieg dedicated their transfer season to the cobbled terrain, most notably with the training of Wisniowski, but also with the signing of Pedersen. They have a clear gap in our ratings as a result.
Tinkoff have second place with the three-pronged attack of Senechal, Kamyshev and Sulimov - which means Moser have slipped down to third, Bewley no longer the leading favourite for these races.
Evonik have Blythe to ensure they rate 4th, and just ahead of the pack behind, with Per and Polanc placing Isostar in 5th, ahead of the terms of Spengler, Gerts and Stallaert.
Climbs
| Moser - Sygic | | | Festina - OAKA | | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | Gazelle | Team UBS | | Aker - MOT | Generali | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Isostar - Specialized | eBuddy | EA Vesuvio |
This category prioritises more of the mountain-only ability, as well as depth in that terrain - as a rider can't be seen as a team's best rider in this category if they are the best in another category. It has the smallest weighting of the six to overall predictions, and might not make as much sense in isolation - but I'll include it for completeness!
Such is the system, that the top rated Climbers taking their 'Team Rank 1' position for this category are Barguil, Amador, Galta, Schleck and Shikai. A sign of depth for those teams, for none of those riders are top ranked for their team in Stage Races. The partnership of Barguil with Hirt places Moser top here.
All Category Positions
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL |  Aegon - Peroni | 2 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 15 |  Air France - KLM | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 17 |  Aker - MOT | 10 | 1 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 6 |  Bennelong - Mitchelton | 12 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 13 |  cycleYorkshire | 15 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 22 |  EA Vesuvio | 8 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 11 |  eBuddy | 16 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 10 |  Evonik - ELKO | 1 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 20 |  Festina - OAKA | 13 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 2 |  Gazelle | 14 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 4 |  Generali | 20 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 7 |  Grieg-Maersk | 22 | 22 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 21 |  Indosat Ooredoo | 11 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 18 |  ISA - Hexacta | 17 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 14 |  Isostar - Specialized | 9 | 14 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 9 |  King Power | 5 | 15 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 19 |  Moser - Sygic | 4 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 |  Rakuten Pro Cycling | 7 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 11 | 3 |  Team Puma - SAP | 18 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 12 |  Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | 21 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 16 |  Team UBS | 6 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 |  Volvo acc. by Spotify | 19 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 8 |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2020 00:21
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Team Manager
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Overall Predictions
R1 and R2 of my overall ranking positions are just based around those last specific position ranks, while R3 and R4 look at the rating scores awarded to teams across those categories.
The next graph shows R3 against R4, and gives a suggestion for an overall tier list.
My formulas have always loved Moser - and this will be the third successive year they've placed them as top. It's never quite played out that way though. Whether they can score enough points in one terrain may be the key question, but the fact is that they don't have a weak terrain. They are rated Top 10 for all six categories, while every other team has at least one category outside the Top 15.
That results in quite a jumble behind, where I think the main takeaway should be that a lot of teams have a big range for where they might end up.
The formulas' next areas of confidence are to place Festina in 2nd, just ahead of Evonik. And at the bottom end of the division, it's with the relegation of ISA and cycleYorkshire.
There are some teams with quite some contrasts. The x-axis above shows R3, with Grieg placed 10th. However the other three rankings put them down for relegation. Volvo and UBS two other teams with one scale saying Top 10, and another saying relegation.
All balanced together in the overall prediction, it is 4th for Isostar, 5th for eBuddy. Bennelong tipped to finally break the Top 10 across all predictions, and a much better expectation for Gazelle this season, with they and Puma - the last two division winners - 7th and 8th.
The relegation mix does have Grieg in there, with cycleYorkshire, ISA and Indosat. And for the final spot, King Power narrowly surviving - at the potential expense of Aegon!
I think we can safely say that it's going to be an interesting season.
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Moser - Sygic | | 2 | Festina - OAKA | | 3 | Evonik - ELKO | | 4 | Isostar - Specialized | | 5 | eBuddy | | 6 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 7 | Gazelle | | 8 | Team Puma - SAP | | 9 | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 10 | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | 11 | Aker - MOT | | 12 | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | 13 | Team UBS | | 14 | Air France - KLM | | 15 | EA Vesuvio | | 16 | Generali | | 17 | King Power | | 18 | Aegon - Peroni | | 19 | Grieg-Maersk | | 20 | Indosat Ooredoo | | 21 | cycleYorkshire | | 22 | ISA - Hexacta |
Contributing Ranking Predictions
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | 1 | MOSE | MOSE | MOSE | MOSE | | Moser - Sygic | | 2 | FEST | FEST | FEST | FEST | | Festina - OAKA | | 3 | ISOS | ISOS | EVON | EVON | | Evonik - ELKO | | 4 | EBUD | EVON | ISOS | EBUD | | Isostar - Specialized | | 5 | BENN | GAZE | EBUD | BENN | | eBuddy | | 6 | GAZE | BENN | VOLV | AIR | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 7 | PUMA | RAKU | GAZE | PUMA | | Gazelle | | 8 | EVON | AKER | BENN | VOLV | | Team Puma - SAP | | 9 | AKER | UBS | TINK | GAZE | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 10 | RAKU | EBUD | GRIE | TINK | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | 11 | GENE | GENE | VESU | ISOS | | Aker - MOT | | 12 | VOLV | KING | UBS | AEGO | | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | 13 | UBS | VESU | PUMA | VESU | | Team UBS | | 14 | TINK | AIR | RAKU | AKER | | Air France - KLM | | 15 | KING | PUMA | GENE | INDO | | EA Vesuvio | | 16 | VESU | AEGO | AIR | RAKU | | Generali | | 17 | AIR | TINK | AKER | KING | | King Power | | 18 | AEGO | VOLV | AEGO | UBS | | Aegon - Peroni | | 19 | INDO | INDO | KING | GENE | | Grieg-Maersk | | 20 | GRIE | GRIE | INDO | ISA | | Indosat Ooredoo | | 20 | CYCL | CYCL | CYCL | GRIE | | cycleYorkshire | | 20 | ISA | ISA | ISA | CYCL | | ISA - Hexacta |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 29-10-2020 01:19
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Directeur Sportif
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Always eagerly look forward to this preview, although it's no secret that SN's model never liked my team; if anything, the fact I'm out of the danger zone in the maths preview possibly confirms I did improve my team over the off-season  Either that or the formulas got some nice adjusting which I guess would explain my team making a sharp climb up the time trial rankings despite losing my 'best' TTists Viviani & Gesink 
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 29-10-2020 03:09
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World Champion
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10th, looks good to me. I dont think we even need to run the season anymore
Nice to see us 3rd in climber "depth" essentially, and while our hills rating is lower due to our weaker support, we only have one hill race that Kinoshita isn't riding, so Im not too worried. Serry and Kratochvila are both good support in my eyes, with a good combo of MO+HIL to help him. I think a lot is riding on our depth, since I dont have many big scorers
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| roturn |
Posted on 29-10-2020 05:51
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Nice to see those numbers for PT teams as well. Thanks for that effort SN!
I fear that this might happen indeed due to lots of questionmarks.
Let`s just hope for R4, which likely is the one where Groenewegen performs as last year.
Must admit when only looking at the terrain rankings I was a lot more confident by only sucking at TTs. The overall prediction was then a bit terrifying.
A lot depends how the training works out. On paper it should work out well, though on paper Groenewegen won`t overperform. So I guess no matter if relegation or not, the prediction of Aegon will be less than 3-4 spots off. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-10-2020 07:49
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7766
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I love the look of the terrain rankings. Year after year Evonik is (rightfully) top5 in half of them and bottom 5 in the other half. Good to see the rise in our grades for sprint and hills - probably mostly due to Lopez and Eislers leveling up. Nice to defend the last place in TT for the - how many times have it been?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 29-10-2020 10:49
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Classics Specialist
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Our biggest goal this season was that number 1 spot for the cobbles Not nice to see 22-22-21-17 for the other categories, but I do like the cobbles and TT rating. Also like that 3rd round We overperformed from the formula prediction last year, so hopefully again this year.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 29-10-2020 11:16
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World Champion
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Let's hope we'll be closer to your prediction this year
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2020 13:06
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matt17br wrote:
Either that or the formulas got some nice adjusting which I guess would explain my team making a sharp climb up the time trial rankings despite losing my 'best' TTists Viviani & Gesink
Certainly the TT formulas are favouring the more all-round time triallists this year a bit more - which helps with Dennis and Oliveira, both seen as better than Viviani now. And Gesink wasn't factored into your TT rating last year.
Repsol not being PT pushes you up one spot too!
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-10-2020 13:59
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I can't see how Moser should win or we could get 2nd, but I'll happily take that!
Moser was 6th last season (I think) and have only gotten worse from Bewley decreasing, and then nothing else basically...
I think the PRL stat is ignored, which would put some teams higher. As there is a big number of fairly short TT's planning accordingly could see big changes here and there - That IMO is a big gain for Evonik f.e. - but others too...
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 30-12-2024 16:59
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| viking90 |
Posted on 29-10-2020 16:25
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Well, I would be happy with either R1,R3 or R4 as "answer" to our season did not expect us to be outside 20-22 place in any prediction this year maybe I have underestimate my own team but on the other hand I know how much I suck at planning my season |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 29-10-2020 18:22
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Small Tour Specialist
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Seventh might be our best spot in the PT mathematical prediction ever. Definitely happy with that; it's a good sign.
Is -16 a record?, SN?
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-11-2020 14:03
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DubbelDekker wrote:
Seventh might be our best spot in the PT mathematical prediction ever. Definitely happy with that; it's a good sign.
Is -16 a record?, SN?
It may have been a record, until I just looked at how my PCT ones did last year
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 01-11-2020 14:27
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Nice, thanks for the preview. Thought we might end up a little higher on TT, but we do have more depth than real top-tier guys. I would be happy with the 13th that you have us predicted, really just want to avoid immediate relegation.
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| ember |
Posted on 01-11-2020 16:26
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This is always nice to have a look at! Happy to see us ahead of the relegation places in all rounds. Admittedly I'm not that confident myself, but we shall see, hopefully the formula proves correct for us  |
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