Bushwackers wrote:
Chill out guys I'm not claiming to be Nostradamus. I just made a formula that I thought made some sense (which it seems it doesn't), did a little eyeballing, and gave a prediction. I did not put any personal bias into this, so don't take anything personally.
I don't think its right either, and Ollfardh in my heart I don't think you'll end up last
Fixed the Indostat btw
Your formula is perfect, I've already embraced the fact we'll end up in 2nd
Some interesting predictions here. Matt underrated my team last season quite a lot in his preview, this time I think he is more accurate. Mid table is also my expectation. I hope however he underrated us again compared to the final rankings. Bushwacker's table may have some odd placings but he also puts us midtable, so I guess at least for SPAR, he has done quite a good job.
It took me some time to find myself in tastasol's ranking, I didn't even bother first to check the top placements. Thanks for the trust in my team, but I do not think I can come close to your projected 3rd place.
Matt underrated my team last season quite a lot in his preview, this time I think he is more accurate. Mid table is also my expectation.
You just finished 5 positions above where I predicted you, I mostly thought Denifl would score a bit less in general But I'm happy that he didn't flat out suck and still brought enough points to avoid relegation considering his wage
This year I reckon he might actually score even better considering the climbers field didn't improve in the division, and of course, your team was easily one of the ones that improved the most with the additions of Daniel especially and Guerao - who however will not have easy life in the kind of sprinters field PCT offers.
After I did CT I can't not let PCT enjoy this boring statistical preview
Because everyone's prediction is so full based of subjective things and very difficult calculations, I based my prediction relying on one stat: OVL. Which I know is not a 100% accurate reflection of the actual strength but it's good enough for me. I'll call it "Marco's overall ranking based on overall"
There are three individual rankings in the spoilers. They are all based on the average of the first n-riders of the team. The final ranking is a combination of those three rankings
This one looks fine to me! You can definitely see my depth in the domestiques category, just hoping that gets me enough points to offset my leaders sucking and I can somehow avoid relegation.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Using Marco's ranking PCT and CT system, his 'final ranking indicates that Netia (PCT) are 'worse' than the top CT teams. Really relying on Vantomme and Kwaiatk to both have a stormer of a season or could well be in a lot of trouble!
Is a very simplified approach relying on just the 'overall' stat as ignores many impacting factors, but still gives results in both divisions that have who I'd guess most would subjectivally place at the top in those positions and similarly for those at the tail-end. Sometimes simple is elegant
Scorchio wrote:
Using Marco's ranking PCT and CT system, his 'final ranking indicates that Netia (PCT) are 'worse' than the top CT teams. Really relying on Vantomme and Kwaiatk to both have a stormer of a season or could well be in a lot of trouble!
My leaders have bad averages since they rely highly on back-ups rather than main stats, same goes for our domestiques, this gives them more race days, I see this as an advantage. I also only focus on two terrains, hills (especially if there's something like a timetrial or mountain to accompany them) and sprints. Many previews expect high average riders and teams who are very diverse but really you don't need them unless you are planning on promoting. I'm not critiquing that in other previews, Marco's and other formula-based previews are very good.
However, these previews often predict me very low, last season should be evidence enough that this is not a problem, LLS finished 5th in the PCT rankings, Vantomme 22nd and our team got 16th place overall. This season we are actually stronger, Kwiatkowski is likely a better rider than Sanchez last season (although there remains the question of how he'll perform in hill classics, with +1 Hl, +1 ACC, +1 Mo but -1 Res, -2 Sta, -2? Flat), while Sanchez declined but should still be useful, with about a 50/50 split of RDs as super domestique/co-leader and leader. While Vantomme has the exact same train as last season, although it's always a risk with PCM being very temperamental.
Not having a go at you, or anybody, I love seeing these previews and hearing opinions. But last season we were predicted as 29th by 'the most accurate preview' and we finished safe in 16th (would've been higher if not for Czech Republic ). We aren't a great team and I don't want to aim to promote until Kaspa and Peda are ready to lead the team, because we want Polish and Danish leaders. but I think something like Matt's prediction of 17th is going to be the most accurate.
The basis of this ranking prediction is a subjective evaluation of each team in different sub-areas which are then put through a formula with different weightings depending on individual team strengths.
A note is that it is probably a bit skewed towards team with leadership potential on 2-3 areas and mediocre leaders in other areas. My own team is one that probably/hopefully benefits a bit too much from that just.
Some teams will be worse ranked in this than more directly stat-based as I have put a good bit of weight on acc for especially climbers and hilly riders as well as including a small "gut-feeling" factor on riders with a known history of under-performing as well as a general feeling on team level.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
