baseballlover312 wrote:
You stay off the internet for most of a day and you come back to this sh*tshow.
I gotta say, after playing so well as mafia last game, I no longer can tell anymore who is telling the truth because I know how as mafia, we tricked the town. That makes this very difficult. I don't wanna be so quick to subscribe to the idea that either TMM or Trek is right in this case, and the other is mafia. It reminds me a lot of several rivalries last game - and those were exactly what we mafia wanted as the mafia.
That being said, I also have no other leads. I keep psyching myself out. If I had to pick a side here, I'd probably lean towards TMM, if only because Trek seems adamant on defending hillis, who I don't see as trustworthy. Not confirmed mafia or anything, but trek is acting as though another CC would immediately claim, which isn't the case. He's basically making evidence where there isn't necessarily any.
but it is the case... If there is the CC alive right now and saw a fake claim (which would be instantly very suspicious) and not call it out, then they really are dumb beyond belief. Not sure what I can think of that bolded sentence alone... town are in a good position, we dont need to lynch, nor do we need to be stupid either :/
hillis is to be trusted, because he's either extremely lucky that he killed the CC or wait... he is the CC as there is no counter claim
If you want to peddle that hillis is suspicious, be my guest, but you'd be one of the first people I'd shoot if I had a gun (after TMM)
I meant to put a modifier there - it isn't necessarily the case. It probably would be, but isn't confirmed. A couple of games ago we had three different people claiming CC at one point. Possibly they thought it would cause more confusion than good, or are still trying to figure out if they're detective despite mounting evidence of Ian. Or they could just be slow/not apt to the ways of the game. It's unlikely, but not a 0% chance as people are making it out to be.
Glad to know I'm being shot though. A word of advice to the gunsmith, be smart with whose hands you put a gun in. Be 100% sure before you do anything. If you learned anything from last game, it should be that.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Okay, here's why Hillis is one of the least suspicious players right at this moment.
Imagine if, hypothetically, Hillis was a member of the mafia, he's just seen Ian Butler claim as detective and catch one of his mafia buddies (remember that this makes him a mostly confirmed detective for mafia like he is for us now), so he now looks at the game, he knows that the detective is alive and he also knows that there are 10 other townies (BBL, Selwink, Marco, Jesa, Bikex, Waghlon, TMM, trek, ryant, Aqua, Raziz which makes 11 but you subtract his mafia buddy), he doesn't know for sure about the existance of the doctor or anybody else yet. That means that any one of those townies could be the CC, while it is also possible for Sammy or Croatia to be the CC, that's a 10/12 (83%) chance that the CC is alive and a 2/12 (17%) chance the CC is dead*. Any reasonable CC would immediately call out a false claim because their role isn't that important anyway, so he is safe to assume that if he claims to be the CC, there is an 83% chance that the real CC would be able to call him out and thus he would be lynched.
Imagine you were in this position a mafia, knowing that a CC claim would have an 83% chance of immediately getting you lynched and on top of that, one of your other mafia is already about to get lynched, would you claim to be the CC?
Now I know the argument against this, something along the lines of, "What if hillis is just playing risky and on the edge?" And yeah sure, that's a possibility, but it's not like we've crossed him off the list of potential suspects, we've just accepted that at the moment it is unlikely that he is one of the mafia.
baseballlover312 wrote:
You stay off the internet for most of a day and you come back to this sh*tshow.
I gotta say, after playing so well as mafia last game, I no longer can tell anymore who is telling the truth because I know how as mafia, we tricked the town. That makes this very difficult. I don't wanna be so quick to subscribe to the idea that either TMM or Trek is right in this case, and the other is mafia. It reminds me a lot of several rivalries last game - and those were exactly what we mafia wanted as the mafia.
That being said, I also have no other leads. I keep psyching myself out. If I had to pick a side here, I'd probably lean towards TMM, if only because Trek seems adamant on defending hillis, who I don't see as trustworthy. Not confirmed mafia or anything, but trek is acting as though another CC would immediately claim, which isn't the case. He's basically making evidence where there isn't necessarily any.
but it is the case... If there is the CC alive right now and saw a fake claim (which would be instantly very suspicious) and not call it out, then they really are dumb beyond belief. Not sure what I can think of that bolded sentence alone... town are in a good position, we dont need to lynch, nor do we need to be stupid either :/
hillis is to be trusted, because he's either extremely lucky that he killed the CC or wait... he is the CC as there is no counter claim
If you want to peddle that hillis is suspicious, be my guest, but you'd be one of the first people I'd shoot if I had a gun (after TMM)
I meant to put a modifier there - it isn't necessarily the case. It probably would be, but isn't confirmed. A couple of games ago we had three different people claiming CC at one point. Possibly they thought it would cause more confusion than good, or are still trying to figure out if they're detective despite mounting evidence of Ian. Or they could just be slow/not apt to the ways of the game. It's unlikely, but not a 0% chance as people are making it out to be.
Glad to know I'm being shot though. A word of advice to the gunsmith, be smart with whose hands you put a gun in. Be 100% sure before you do anything. If you learned anything from last game, it should be that.
I completely understand that your point, but I think a CC would come out by now, it's reasonably likely that Ian is the detective as this point and the CC role isn't worth much more than being a townie who has the ability to make themselves a little bit confirmed past that.
The main thing though is the part I've bolded in your post, why are we judging hillis as if the situation that is "unlikely but not a 0% chance" is true? Shouldn't we base it more on the perspective that most people as the CC would've revealed by now, unless one does happen to come out?
Again as I said in the last post, he's not 100% yet, but surely he is much less likely to be mafia then some.
Spoiler
btw, I forgot to add this to the last post, but I just wanted to mention that if I made any mistakes, I think you get the picture that it is roughly the numbers I gave and I'm reasonably sure it's correct.
I know the fella well enough privately to know, that if he had wanted to distract town from himself, he would had played stupid instead of digging himself further into the ground.
You know what, that actually makes sense. As I said before, the logic isn't foolproof, but with what we have to go on, I think it's the best we have. Obviously as TMM said, the chance of the dead being CC is technically higher than specifically Hillis, but with the mafia having no way of knowing who the CC is, it would be incredibly risky to claim it without reason, as the chances of it being anyone BUT those two are very high, and the claiming of other would be likely. So trek is right.
The problem I still have is I don't think believing trek means TMM is necessarily mafia, as I said before. Often the biggest rivalries are two town members. but we have no other leads to go on, and his little witch hunt, which admittedly convinced me last night, seems far less coherent after a good night's sleep. Plus we know he's a loose cannon from previous games. I don't like being the flip flopper here, but...
Lynch TMM because something needs to be done and time is running out, but feel free to rebuttal back for my vote.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Treks explanation is satisfactory for me atm, still I won’t change my vote as I believe TMM more than trek to be town. Also treks pretentious way of talking about TMM is little annoying. It’s not like the rest of the town played much better in the last game. Both are more likely town. I believe the real mafia is staying away from the discussion atm.
Main suspect is Aquarius in my opinion, if we’re able to shift votes to him, I’d remove my vote on trek.
Also I’d like to see the masons show themselves.
Hillis' role is very clear for me, the chances of him not being the CC are very low for not being him. I suggested investigating him when Ian asked for suggestions, but it's logical that he should focus on other players, in order to use more smartly his investigations.
About TMM and Trek, as i have to vote for one i'd go with TMM. He seems too focused on Hillis not being the CC and looks like a big distraction for the won. But i'm holding my vote at the moment, maybe i'll change my mind later
Also, if you are voting for Trek because he didn't lynch wsf even if he posted that day, you should do the same with Marco, who did the same as Trek, but has gone unnoticed for it. At least Trek explained why he didn't vote for wsf, but Marco didn't
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Hey all,
I've got little to no internet access for the next five days. I may pop online but I also may not be able to, so until I get back knockout has kindly agreed to host. If you have already submitted night roles he has the details, if not do that to him tonight as well as next time. Good luck to you all and a huge thanks to knockout for doing this!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
The mafia definitely made things a bit easier and a bit harder for us. Waghlon had already been investigated by Ian and that resulted in town. With this kill we know that he wasn't the godfather (which was still possible) and that it's more likely that Ian is the actual detective and not playing with us. However it gives us less suspects to eliminate due to detective's investigations.
If they continue this trend then trekbmc will be klled next unless he's the godfather or Ian is lying (and in that case we know both remaining mobsters). So I think we have to not lynch him today, and I'll break the promise I made when I lynched TMM for now
It's a shame the last lynch vote was decided by feelings of personal resentments and not by reason, I hope we can go back to a constructive discussion desirably leading to exposing another member of the mafia.
I'd have preferred someone else than trekbmc to be investigated, but at least he is cleared for now.
Regarding my suspicions nothing has changed, Aquarius and Marco still top the list. I'm gonna go ahead and start the lynch voting with lynch Aquarius
Additionally it would be great to hear something from the people that are staying in the background at the moment. I agree with jseadog that members of the mafia's try to hide there.
Also I'd like to repeat my request for the masons to expose themselves, imo there is no point to keep wasting Ian Butler's investigations by not coming out. I hope the gunsmith has by now provided Ian with a gun and so can also show himself. If Ian hasn't received a gun yet we have to assume either sammy or Croatia was the gunsmith.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
