Best Picture: This could be a real open race, despite the universal acclaim for The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. I think it will be one of the two, and i think Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will take the prize. Get Out the surprise inclusion here but it was an outstanding film and for a horror to get such an honour is big news!
Not really any major films missing here although i would have liked to see The Big Sick added.

Best Director: I would give this to Nolan for Dunkirk, but Greta Gerwig or Del Toro would be equally deserving. Also happy to see Jordan Peele nominated, i'm going to keep saying this about Get Out.
I think Denis Villeneuve should have gotten in for Blade Runner 2049 which was beautifully directed, or Sean Baker for The Florida Project.

Best Actress: Aka, The guaranteed win for Frances McDormand. No qestions, she's genuinely outstanding in Three Billboards and it is one of the best performances of the last decade!
Sally Hawkins could win this as there's ever growing swell behind The Shape of Water, but the added comedic edge to Frances should hold her upfront.
And Meryl Streep proving she's a true force of acting yet again, even if The Post was a bit dissapointing around her and Tom Hanks.

Best Actor: Aka, the guaranteed win for Gary Oldman. Again his portrayal os Churchill is stellar and classic Oscar bait. He's the entire center of Darkest Hour and deserves every award he's getting for it.
Daniel Day Lewis, much like Streep, can't stop being brilliant and nominated. And i'm a huge fan of Daniel Kaluuya and have been going on about him for years since he was in The Fades and Black Mirror in the UK (and he's another former Skins actor gaining major success)/

Best Supporting Actress: Actually not much to say here. I'd like to see Octavia Spencer pick up the win, but it could easily go to any of the nominations in a strong year for supporting actresses.

Best Supporting Actor: Another really open and strong catagory. I'd give it to Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards, because he really elevates a character that in other hands could easily have been one-dimensional and hated and makes it complex and almost sympathetic.
Also Kevin Spac.... i mean Christopher Plummer's late surge could do the job as well and he's easily the best part of All The Money In The World.
Will say that Patrick Stewart's turn in Logan deserved a nomination to me, but really he needed more screentime to earn the nomination.

Best Original Screenplay: God do i want to read the screenplays for Three Billboards and Shape of Water, they must be incredible. So happy to see The Big Sick being recognised, because it's scripting is superb. Don't know where this will go, but all deserving winners.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Logan surprising with a nod here, but i expect to be beaten out by the more oscar style films. The Disaster Artist i also don't see winning, but that's because of the association with Franco. Should be either Call Me By Your Name or Mudbound with the latter the slight edge for me.

Best Film Editing: Baby Driver, next! Or Dunkirk! No disrespect to the other nominations but they don't compare. Now wait as it goes to I, Tonya...

Best Animated Feature: Further proof the academy has no idea what a good animated film actually is with both The Boss Baby and Ferdinand nominated... ugh... My hope is for Loving Vincent for doing something really unique and clever.

Best Cinematography: Dunkirk i hope, that film is stunning! Blade Runner 2049 was also stunning but not so natural.

Best Production Design: Dunkirk again for me, the level and scale of detail was insane. The Shape of Water also does some really interesting things here. Just not Beauty and the Beast please...

Best VFX: War For The Planet Of The Apes surely has to take this, because my god that film is mostly cgi and you really cannot believe that.
Also my chance to say that Andy Serkis has to eventually be nominated for Best Actor because that man is a legend!

Best Make-Up: couldn't care less

Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver, next! Or Dunkirk!

Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver, next! Or Dunkirk!

Best Costume Design: Actually think this might for to Beauty and the Beast but it should got to Phantom Thread, the film about fashion design...

Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer and his score for Dunkirk... the perfect example of how a score can elevate any scene to a new height and punch you with emotion and tension.

Best Original Song: Don't care at all.

Best Foreign Language Film: Not seen much of any of them, but i will be watching them all at some point.

Best Documentary Feature: Again, not seen much of any of them but will watch them all at some point.

Never care too much about Short's myself so won't comment.