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Paris - Nice Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 13:25
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 Paris - Nice
1 MTN (1MTF) | 1 MED MTN (1HTF) | 1 HIL | 3 FLT | 1 PRL | 1 TTT (24km)
Paris - Nice! A race that needs to introduction, which is good because I'm under time pressure writing this. One of the traditional two openers of the PT stage racing calendar along with Tirreno - Adriatico, and in the MGUCI era part of a triple header with the Classique du Grand-Duché. This year it's one for the climbers, with a Team Time Trial and a prologue bookending the race, and plenty of opportunities for the sprinters. It's attracted plenty of the second and third tier riders of each of those categories - that's no insult, as I do mean the slightly-below-best-in-the-world stars. Let's meet our protagonists for the week.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | AC | PL | TTT Avg. |  Phinney | 83 | 75 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 81 | 73.6 |  Haig | 83 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 77 | 72.4 |  Pogacar | 82 | 76 | 79 | 80 | 72 | 75 | 76.0 |  Eastman | 82 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 69 | 73 | 76.4 |  McNulty | 81 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 68 | 75 | 75.0 |  Latour | 81 | 75 | 80 | 78 | 74 | 74 | 71.7 |  Galta | 81 | 73 | 78 | 79 | 66 | 71 | 70.7 |
The list of top favourites here comprises really four names. First the 2021 winner, the legendary Taylor Phinney, who proved he still is one of the best in the world last week in Portugal, repaying his new team Fastned's faith in him at age 34 with a big victory, with two stages and the points jersey in addition. Jack Haig, the €1.3m man in free agency this year, in his first year ever outside of the dearly departed Amaysim team, will be looking to challenge him - these two are clearly the strongest riders on paper, but both are threatened by only having solid TTT squads behind them.
Ryan Eastman also had a solid start to his season last week in Portugal, runner-up to Phinney and not particularly looking like anything more. However, his Oxxo TTT unit is a premium one, and if he can stick to the wheels of the top two then he has a real shout at GC glory. The same goes for the only rider in this quartet who isn't riding for a new team this season, Tadej Pogacar, who will be looking for a symbolic upset of Taylor Phinney, proving that the new stage racing generation has arrived after his highly publicised off-season traning camp.
Brandon McNulty is also here in new colours after his shock move away from McCormick in transfers, and his King Power squad is another top TTT contender. Even younger than Pogacar, he too will be looking to prove that the future is now - especially if he could assert himself as an heir to Taylor Phinney's throne as the best rider in the USA. More likely though he's fighting just behind the front with Latour and Galta, this trio elevated into the favourites tier thanks to solid TTT teams compared to the other challengers for a Top 5 position.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | AC | PL | TTT Avg. |  Rodrigues | 81 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 66.4 |  Novak | 80 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 64 | 63.9 |  Hirt | 80 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 69.6 |  Ranaweera | 80 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 65 | 73 | 65.6 |  Warchol | 80 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 70 | 67 | 73.1 |  Kirsch | 79 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 67 | 71 | 77.4 |  Faglum Karlsson | 79 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 68 | 79 | 70.0 |  Stüssi | 79 | 73 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 69 | 74.1 |  Cort Nielsen | 78 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 71 | 72 | 72.7 | | Johannessen | 78 | 72 | 72 | 80 | 76 | 65 | 63.9 | | Chaiyasombat | 78 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 74 | 70 | 75.0 |  Foss | 78 | 72 | 77 | 79 | 69 | 72 | 71.5 | | Leknessund | 77 | 74 | 77 | 81 | 69 | 78 | 73.1 |
A host of other interesting names here - subtop contenders, leaders of most of the teams, and our U25 contenders. Notable names include Kirsch - not necessarily even a Top 10 stage racer here but riding with the strongest TTT unit at EA Vesuvio, Rodrigues, Novak, Hirt, and Ranaweera (the first and last the PCT wildcards Everesting and Ekoi) all strong riders with terrible TTT squads.
Meanwhile, all three top U25 contenders are not the leaders of their team, so a lot will come down to how much they have to sacrifice for their leader. Johannessen and Chaiyasombat both have very strong contenders in Novak and McNulty respectively, while Leknessund is with the also very dangerous Warchol. Chaiyasombat probably has the best TTT team, while Johanessen has by far the worst and will need to do some work on the road stages to stand a chance of claiming the white jersey.
| SP | AC | Leadout | SP | | Groenewegen | 82 | 81 | Santos | 77 |  Manninen | 81 | 80 | Hamza | 77 |  Van Poppel | 81 | 78 | Kooij | 75 | | Kemboi | 80 | 80 | Dekker | 77 | | Walls | 80 | 78 | Forssell | 77 | | Bol | 79 | 77 | Chavanne | 76 |  Steimle | 78 | 80 | Cavagna | 73 |  Prasad | 78 | 79 | Konychev | 76 |  Hesters | 78 | 78 | Castrillo | 70 |
Two big names here in Groenewegen and Manninen, fresh up from massive seasons leading teams to PCT promotion, but both actually on new teams now. Both looking for some redemption after pretty disappointing to disastrous weeks in Qatar sprint-wise. Kemboi and Van Poppel also are both more than capable of being the best sprinter here in their best form, with the former also a strong candidate for the yellow jersey at some point with his prologue skills.
| PRL | | TTT Avg | # Riders | | Andersen | 83 | EA Vesuvio | 77.4 | 8 | | Chavanne | 82 |  Tinkoff Team | 76.9 | 8 | | Leung | 82 | Oxxo - Frisby | 76.4 | 8 | | Kemboi | 81 | Cedevita | 76.0 | 8 | | Phinney | 81 | King Power | 75.0 | 7 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | Puma - SAP | 74.1 | 8 | | Sütterlin | 80 | Jura GIANTS | 74.1 | 8 | | Thomas | 79 | Fastned | 73.6 | 8 | | Groselj | 79 | ZARA - Irizar | 73.4 | 8 | | Matsuda | 79 | Gazelle | 73.1 | 8 | | Tanfield | 79 | Grieg-Maersk | 72.7 | 8 | | Kukrle | 79 | MOL | 72.4 | 8 | | Zakarin | 79 | Polar | 71.7 | 7 | | Razumov | 79 | Evonik - ELKO | 71.5 | 7 | | Lammertink | 79 | Carlsberg | 70.7 | 8 | | Faglum Karlsson | 79 | Lidl Cycling | 70.0 | 8 | | Erdenebat | 79 | Moser - Sygic | 69.6 | 6 | | Yatsevich | 79 | Everesting | 66.4 | 8 | | Goldstein | 79 | Rabobank | 66.3 | 7 | | Christodoulos | 79 | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 65.6 | 8 | | Forssell | 78 |  cycleYorkshire | 64.0 | 7 | | Vernon | 78 | Aker - MOT | 63.9 | 8 | | Rekita | 78 | Assa Abloy | 63.8 | 6 | | Cosnefroy | 78 | Xero Racing | 62.2 | 6 |
Some big names here for the prologue - Phinney would love to have yellow for 8 days but it seems more likely he'd pick it up and lose it, as Kemboi will be trying to have a spell thanks to sprinting bonuses. However it's Andersen, Chavanne, and Leung who are the top favourites.
Meanwhile in the TTT as mentioned EA Vesuvio, Cedevita and Oxxo all bring top quality chrono outfits, alongside Tinkoff, who really have the stage win as their main target for the race. Meanwhile cycleYorkshire have a terrible TTT squad for perhaps the first time ever.
The reports for this one will be brought to you by the wonderful roturn, I can't wait. Let's go racing! |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 13:45
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Some interesting things going on here. Galta obviously needs a good race. He seems to be pretty strongly the 7th-8th best GC guy here, so let's say 8th place is the minimum acceptable and 7th place is our goal. It will be hard to crack about that without significant luck, as all the riders above him are both stronger and have better TTT setups.
Then the side plot is the sprints, where Walls makes his debut for us. Obviously does not have AKA's backups so not really sure what to expect, but he falls into a similar tier of sprinter and so my hope is can also benefit from the sprint lottery at some point.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 03-11-2024 20:20
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Guess the first stage will be a pretty crucial day for us - on one hand, it's a prologue, so another podium chance for Chavanne. On the other hand, it's the only day of the year where all of our riders are racing and hopefully will net us some highly needed points in the fight for survival.
Stüssi is the 15th best climber on the list, and a Top 15 should indeed be our goal. Darbellay is here to back him up as the far stronger prologue rider, but he's just shown in Portugal that his training to 78Mo rather made him a 75 climber or so... So we'll see.
Bol for the sprints, looks to be in a pretty good spot, not at the top of the list, so no train needed (as usual). Him and Gabby should be dropped quickly in the TTT, which should be even stronger if just the Top 6 riders stay together. We'll see where that leads us, but some better mountain stages than in Portugal would be welcome.
Thanks for the preview!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 21:14
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First I wanted to send Formolo here, but then I realized our support for the TTT will be really weak so it will be very hard for him to ride a good GC here. Then I thought about sending Champoussin before realizing his race days would be better used elsewhere rather than possible stage hunting here.
So we ended up with our worst lineup in the triple header here. We are all in for the sprints. Let's go Danny!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2024 22:38
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Hoping that Cort can show that he just had an off day in Portugal. Otherwise it's going to b a long season.
Excited to see Pog here ...
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 23:20
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For us it's all about Manninen here. If he sprints properly (which he hasn't done at all this season) and grabs 3-4 stage podiums with 1-2 stage wins and top 2 in points then it's a great race for us. If not then it's a terrible one and I'm really worried about our season overall if he isn't working for a fourth straight race.
Pomoshnikov is our only non-sprinter/rouleur, no expectations on him to do much but a breakaway or minor GC surprise could be nice. A bit of a sight into what he can do in GTs without Fouche (which I think happens once this year) though expect less from him over one week than three.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
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| ember |
Posted on 04-11-2024 06:09
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Kind of nervous to see how Groenewegen does here after our failure in Qatar. We should have something for everything here except the TTT, with Kragh for the prologue and Novak for the GC stages. Looking forward to see the racing! |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-11-2024 06:43
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We are all in here to try and win the GC with Pogi. With Phinney and Haig both stronger on paper and Oxxo having a better TTT it doesn't seem realistic, but I still hope we give it a really good try!
Thanks for the preview 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:14
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Hoping Conci can do enough to stay in contention in the Mountains and then it's up to him and the team in the TTT to get a big performance in. Hesters also here for the sprint stages. Let's see what we can do!
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:43
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Looking forward to what Foss can do here. Having a TTT in the triple header is cruel so we only have 7 guys for the TTT which might cost us a decent race here.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:54
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I am hoping for a GC top-5 here by Eastman, but as seen in jandal's great preview, the competition is definitely hard. Hold on with the best/better climbers in the mountains (as well as the hilly and flat stages preferably) is the plan, and hopefully we can then indeed finish the race with a top-3 in the TTT. Good luck to everyone!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-11-2024 03:25
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-11-2024 08:08
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Thank you for the preview!
Regarding my own team, Phinney usually is there in any race to win or minimum get the podium.
This race here is the same, even though his biggest advantage of high ITT it not ideal with a prologue and a TTT, where other teams are just better.
Still goals remain same.
Team with Cras and Schelling is solid for the mountains, Salas and rest for the TTT.
First stage was promising with Salas having now basically 100 % of very good TTs, which is nice to see. Phinney as well having another good one after Portugal, showing that the Tasmania one was just far off and must have had other impacts such as high wind changes etc. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-11-2024 08:14
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World Champion
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Good to see Manninen is within striking distance of yellow. No excuses now 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-11-2024 08:17
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Prologue lengths change, Andersen stays on top regardless. Congrats once more to Aker, must feel good to have 5-6 stage wins for granted already
Will happily take 2nd by Chavanne (although beating SKA once remains the goal), looks like we offered enough money to the officials to revert the live timing order. These points take some pressure off the other riders' shoulders, although it shouldn't be an excuse for the climbers not to deliver.
Darbellay once again did well in a prologue, Stüssi a little less, as expected. Still, 15" isn't that much.
A bit sad Vernon couldn't take white, and even misses out on Top 3 points, but alas. If he gets it at the Tour, that's fine, too.
Thanks for the report.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 04-11-2024 09:21
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Looking to find some XP here in France and try and get some fun as well. Rodrigues was solid enough in Portugal so maybe he can fight for a top10 here as well. We're far from the TTT prowess of the Duolingo era so it's difficult to see us being competitive on a higher level.
SKA doing his thing as per tradition. Congrats on another win and YJ, ember!
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-11-2024 10:57
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Pogacar was always going to lose time here to Phinney and Haig, hopefully we can get that time back in the other stages.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-11-2024 12:02
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Rather low prologue stat for Eastman so losing some seconds was to be expected. Decent ride by Sütterlin and Erdenebat
Congratulations ember, and thanks for reporting this, roturn!
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-11-2024 14:55
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Hard to predict what we can do here.
Leknessund probably gets dropped in the mountains and Warchol might get dropped from our mediocre TTT squad.
But if we're lucky, neither happens and we score well in GC.
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| ember |
Posted on 04-11-2024 15:42
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Kragh is just perfect! Brilliant win, and he adds another one. Mighty impressive, to have win these prologues again and again and again.
Thank you for your messages! |
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| ryant |
Posted on 04-11-2024 16:59
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This is a write off as a race for us really, only here for break aways and hopefully a stage win or KOM win that could bring with it
Good luck to the others, the TTT scared me away from using Morton here and that stage could really bring both Pogacar and Eastman into winning this race proper.
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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