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Tour de l'Avenir - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 28-05-2021 12:37
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Classics Specialist
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  Tour de l’Avenir
Welcome to France (and Belgium) for the 2020 Tour de l’Avenir! 163 future stars of cycling have come together for this nine-day spectacle, where they will try to show the world what their capacities are. Some of them come here with their regular team, others have switched teams for a brief period, and some others even agreed to join a non-existent team, which has been formed specially for this occasion. 21 teams in total, not only half of them will have the opportunity to win a stage. Speaking about, of course winning is once again what it’s all about. Sure, showing yourself to the outside world is nice, but winning a stage is something nobody will ever take away from you. Even more prestigious is winning the GC, so let’s dive in the different lists of favourites, starting with the GC riders.
| MTN | HILL | TT | STA | RES |  Inkelaar | 76 | 68 | 61 | 72 | 73 |  Bernal | 75 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 76 |  Sivakov | 75 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 74 |  Habtemichael | 74 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 70 |  Foss | 74 | 69 | 72 | 74 | 76 | | Almeida | 74 | 67 | 67 | 72 | 74 |  Van Niekerk | 73 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 75 | | Sosa | 73 | 73 | 66 | 73 | 77 | | Higuita | 73 | 72 | 64 | 74 | 76 |  Conci | 73 | 71 | 73 | 73 | 72 |  Pogacar | 73 | 71 | 71 | 74 | 74 | | Eenkhoorn | 73 | 70 | 65 | 72 | 74 |  Zimmermann | 73 | 70 | 61 | 75 | 75 | | Giannoutsos | 73 | 69 | 68 | 72 | 74 |  Fung | 73 | 68 | 72 | 66 | 70 |  Mäder | 73 | 68 | 71 | 70 | 72 |  Rikunov | 72 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 68 |
Inkelaar is the best climber in theory, but he can’t be considered the top favourite for the GC. His punching abilities are okay, but he’s a terrible rouleur and an even worse time trialist. Bernal is a slightly worse climber, but as he is the strongest of the bunch physically and also a strong time trialist as well as a decent puncheur, the Colombian is the number one favourite to win this year’s Tour de l’Avenir. Sivakov might be the number two favourite, as his skills are similar to the Polar rider, but just a bit worse in almost every department.
Foss will be riding for Carlsberg and is also a serious podium contender, being both a good climber and a good time trialist. If he’s having a really good week, he could be aiming for the win as well. Same thing can be said about Habtemichael, who’s among the best puncheurs on the favourites list, and is decent against the clock. Almeida is another 74 climber, but shouldn’t pose a threat for the throne when looking at his puncheur and time trial capacities.
Going down the list the chances of finding people being an actual threat for the win, or even the podium, decrease quickly. Conci, Pogacar and Fung are decent allrounders, but whether they will be good enough to finish on the podium is the real question. (Don’t let that guy Shakespeare fool you) One more name that has to be mentioned is Van Niekerk. The South African from Festina – OAKA isn’t an amazing time trialist, but could definitely make a difference with his amazing puncheur skills.
With a prologue as well as a real time trial, the GC will definitely be impacted by those TT km’s. It also gives the pure time trialists two opportunities to shine. Let’s have a look at the list of time trialists.
| TT | Prologue | | Mano | 75 | 73 | | Beniusis | 75 | 74 |  Norsgaard | 75 | 73 | | Bernal | 74 | 72 | | Conci | 73 | 73 | | Christodoulos | 73 | 74 |  Sajnok | 73 | 74 |  Erdenebat | 73 | 74 | | Sivakov | 72 | 71 | | Foss | 72 | 68 | | Fung | 72 | 70 | | Kiriakidis | 72 | 72 | | Akhmaevi | 72 | 68 | | Ferreyra | 72 | 71 | | Gamper | 72 | 72 | | Larsen | 69 | 75 | | Giannoutsos | 68 | 73 | | Storer | 68 | 71 | | Geniets | 68 | 71 | | Eenkhoorn | 65 | 71 |
For the opening prologue, sprinter Larsen might be the top favourite. Two interesting chances for him to take yellow in the two opening stages. Beniusis will be aiming for yellow as well, while the Zalgiris rider is also one of the favourites for the longer time trial. Mano and Norsgaard are two other important riders that will be going for a stage win, but both might come short in the prologue. So should Bernal, but it is definitely not unthinkable for the GC favourite to win the time trial, as he is clearly a mile ahead of the others when it comes to his physical abilities. Christodoulos, Sajnok and Erdenebat are the other names to keep an eye on in the stages against the clock.
The one and only top favourite for the hilly stages is already known, but that doesn’t mean the others have absolutely no chance of playing a role of importance in the two hilly stages. Let’s find out who will be trying to give Van Niekerk some competition.
| MTN | HILL | STA | RES | ACC | | Van Niekerk | 73 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 74 | | Sosa | 73 | 73 | 73 | 77 | 70 | | Storer | 70 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 70 | | Higuita | 73 | 72 | 74 | 76 | 71 | | Hirschi | 70 | 72 | 75 | 74 | 69 | | Mano | 68 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 65 | | Geniets | 67 | 72 | 71 | 74 | 65 | | Honore | 64 | 72 | 71 | 71 | 71 | | Habtemichael | 74 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 65 | | Pogacar | 73 | 71 | 74 | 74 | 68 | | Conci | 73 | 71 | 73 | 72 | 67 |  Valter | 70 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 71 | | Nikiema | 66 | 71 | 69 | 71 | 72 | | Bernal | 75 | 70 | 76 | 76 | 67 | | Eenkhoorn | 73 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 70 | | Zimmermann | 73 | 70 | 75 | 75 | 68 |
Sosa seems to be the Festina’s rider biggest challenger, even though his 65 flat might hinder the Carlsberg rider a bit. Storer, Higuita and Hirschi are also very interesting puncheurs with a bright future, but the gap between them and Van Niekerk just seems to be to massive.
Apart from other GC riders, Eenkhoorn and Zimmermann might surprise us with a strong result if they are having a good day.
One category remains, and that is the sprinting category. Three chances for the sprinters to shine, three chances to become immortal – or at least feel like it for a little while. Let’s have a look at the last list of this preview.
| FLAT | SPR | ACC | STA | RES | | Zariff | 66 | 75 | 76 | 69 | 63 | | Ovsyannikov | 70 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 71 | | Rajovic | 69 | 74 | 78 | 69 | 73 | | Kanter | 71 | 74 | 76 | 72 | 70 | | Larsen | 73 | 74 | 74 | 71 | 70 | | Philipsen | 68 | 74 | 74 | 68 | 67 | | Einhorn | 70 | 74 | 72 | 67 | 70 | | Banaszek | 70 | 73 | 77 | 68 | 70 | | Dainese | 69 | 72 | 74 | 69 | 72 | | Welten | 70 | 72 | 71 | 66 | 67 |  Nur Hasan | 67 | 72 | 71 | 69 | 71 | | Kiskonen | 70 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 74 |
His secondary skills might not be as good as some other sprinters, Zariff is the rider coming out as the top favourite looking at his sprint and acceleration. The only other rider matching his sprint is Ovsyannikov, who is quite strong physically as well. Although the golden boy is a bit weaker with his accelerating, he’s definitely a sprint favourite as well. Rajovic is another interesting name on the list, as the Swisslion rider is quite fast and knows how to accelerate as no other can. Kanter and Banaszek are quite similar sprinters. Other sprinters that are allowed to say out loud they’re aiming for a win include Larsen and Philipsen.
That’s it for today, let’s hope for a nice Tour de l’Avenir and many happy managers. Good luck to everyone, here’s the startlist for the interested people.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 28-05-2021 12:58
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Small Tour Specialist
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Damn right.
Conci should be in decent spot to do well. Really depends on how much time can he save on tough climbs.
Beniusis is obviously winning the TTs and Ovsya dominating the sprints (as he did last year AS LEVEL ONE)
Bernal should clean up here, clearly the best stage racer
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 19:57
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| tastasol |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:18
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Should be a good one. Might have a Scandinavian team riding for a Colombian though, but hopefully both Foss and Sosa can do good in the GC. Larsen also should be able to good on some of the stages and I hope Stokbro can be a good helper for all of them.
Bernal is the favourite, but not by a big margin. Should be exciting.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:19
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Team Leader
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Definitely hoping for a strong GC performance from Conci. He’s got the all round skills in the Mountains and on the TT bike to challenge the others. The hilly stages will be interesting as the gap between AvN and everyone else is massive!
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| MacC |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:20
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
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First Glanbia rider in the Avenir, hope he enjoys it!
His task is to get on TV
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:24
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Team Manager
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We got no favorites in any of the categories but a few nice allrounders, so I hope we'll feature heavily in breakaways. Either way, looking forward to seeing this race with a unique level of competition, it was a lot of fun reporting this last year. And I agree that Bernal should run away with this.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:28
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Directeur Sportif
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Feels great to finally have a team that can compete in this race, and to have something worth following in every stage. We don't expect Inkelaar to win, as the TT will kill his chances, but we hope a Top 3 to Top 5 spot is where he can stay. Eenkhoorn and Schelling should provide able support, along with Storer in the hills. Welten should be an interesting rider for the sprints, and the likes of Per and Scaroni can make themselves famous in one of the breaks. Really looking forward to this.
Thanks for the preview Nemolito 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 28-05-2021 13:34
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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And we're a time trial team now! Let's hope for some breakaways 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 28-05-2021 14:22
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Team Leader
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This will be interesting!
Foss and Sosa should both be contenders for the top 5 overall. Really hope the AI can work it out and prioritize one of them, if it's needed. Also curious to see Larsen on the flat stages. Will he sprint, or will he be handled as a rouleur? Hopefully he won't be affected by the Kragh curse despite having the Carlsberg jersey on, seeing how Carlsberg and Kragh have "solved" the sprints this season.
For me, Van Niekerk is the GC favourite. Though, it all comes down to how the hilly stages are raced. If he can gain big time on stage 4 and 6, he could defend the jersey all the way, I think.
Great to join forces with bbl and tastasol. Hopefully we can deliver a stage win or a great GC  |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 28-05-2021 14:23
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8058
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 650.00
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Any mention of our three riders is a win here. Good luck to everyone!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 28-05-2021 14:40
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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Going in here with no expectations, just to have fun.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-05-2021 14:49
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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I love how our team is stacking the favorites list despite none of the riders included actually being from our team. 
Selfishly, I hope they ride for Foss, since he's both a Scandinavian and a former Carlsberg trainee. But Sosa could be very successful too. Just hope the team puts together a good race.
As far my own guys, all of them are stags. They should seriously be considering this an audition (and competitition) for a full contract next year, cause I won't be able to sign on all 4 of them. |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-05-2021 16:21
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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There are some really scary looking guys at only 23 y.o... Didn't realize that during most of the season tbh. I hoped that Mäder would be a bit higher on the GC favorites' list, but well. I guess we're going to support Hirschi in his quest for stage/KoM wins then. But you never know, we're of course happy to take some positive surprises
Bernal or Sivakov should run away with the win I guess.
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| roturn |
Posted on 28-05-2021 16:48
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Team Manager
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Bernal looking best closely followed by Sivakov. First having better support as well but as my talents, mainly Vanhoucke are in support duties of later, I will be cheering for the Tinkoff guys.
Inkelaar just as much a questionmark as Van Niekerks strengths in the climbs.
Looking forward for some surprises. And couple breakaway wins. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 28-05-2021 18:21
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Christodoulos has a chance at the opening prologue, but I'm more interested in how Rajovic will do in the sprints. Siric is the only viable leadout for him, so that's not ideal.
In the GC I'm afraid Pogacar might do even worse than last year, but his main chance to win it will be next year anyways
Thanks to everyone organising this race, and for the preview and upcoming reports Nemo
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 28-05-2021 19:30
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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Hopefully its a wide open race. Glad to see Lyu and Barbier will be riding, I know it was tough to find a team for them, so any action from them is a bonus.
Edited by valverde321 on 28-05-2021 19:39
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-05-2021 23:19
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Sadly we're not here. Good luck to everyone involved.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 29-05-2021 05:45
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
Joined: 31-12-2007
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Let's see if Sivakov can make this race interesting!
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| beagle |
Posted on 29-05-2021 10:10
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
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And here we are, the race I ´m looking forward the most from MG Calendar.
On paper Bernal should be #1 contender, but competition is not easy at all. I expect hard and exciting fighting for the win!
Thanks Nemolito for great preview.
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 29-05-2021 10:31
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World Champion
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Always a unique and fun race during the season and very much looking forward to it, thanks for the great preview Nemolito and can't wait for the reports!
We're usually a little less good than we should be here but it's a decent squad so hoping for at least some fun even if it crumbles a little in terms of the GC as it usually does. Expecting AVN to take it out given his general beastliness compared to his stats, but to be fair Bernal should have it in the bag with +2MO and +9TT plus a lieutenant and a half in Almeida if they are treated right by the AI.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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