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Ollfardh was bored and looked at the PCT leaders 2020
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-10-2020 11:29
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World Champion
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The third year I'm doing this now, so let's see if I got any better at it last season:
https://pcmdaily....st_1344562
- Cobbles was quite accurate, even with Vanspeybrouck outscoring Stallaert. Spengler the biggest disappointment here I guess.
- In the hills, I like many others was not well informed about the new MO/Hill importance and ended up rating the likes of Beltran way too low and the likes of Claeys way too high.
- Mountains, well, who wouldn't predict Pluchkin here? I underrated Martin though, but all in all not too bad.
- For the Sprints, Ahlstrand defeated Degenkolb to my surprise, but I did get the top 3 right.
- The time trials were easy to predict as well, so all in all quite ok.
So how did all this translate in the rankings?
- I put Minions as a clear favourite for the title, but they never got close.
- The real champ ISA got a "fighting to stay in" rating.
- I'm not sure why I keep doing this.
- Really making a total fool of myself with these predictions.
- Anyway..
- Volvo was pretty accurate I guess.
- But the rest of the promotion spots were not entirely accurate
- I got Sauber set dead last and they didn't disappoint, thanks Sauber!
- Berg and Xero, the other teams predicted at the bottom, ended safe midtable though
- Europcar was close to going down, but Carlberg, Carrefour and Philips all looked safe.
- Meh
| My title favourite | | 1 | Minions (14) | | Set for promotion | | 2 | Desigual (11) | | 3 | Volvo (2) | | 4 | Iberia (15) | | In the promotion fight | | 5 | Delvaux (7) | | 6 | Philips (25) | | 7 | Rakuten (3) | | 8 | Andorra (21) | | 9 | UBS (4) | | 10 | Popo (6) | | Safe midtable | | 11 | ENI (20) | | 12 | Swisslion (18) | | 13 | Kraftwerk (13) | | 14 | Carrefour (22) | | 15 | Yorkshire (5) | | 16 | Carlsberg (23) | | 17 | Duolingo (9) | | Fighting to stay in | | 18 | Campari (8) | | 19 | Europcar (24) | | 20 | Kulczyk (19) | | 21 | Valio (10) | | 22 | Lierse (17) | | 23 | Isa (1) | | Doomed | | 24 | Berg (16) | | 25 | Xero (12) | | 25 | Sauber (26) |
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-10-2020 11:49
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Cobbles
One clear favourite here: Danny Summerhill with legendary support will be the clear favourite in every cobbled race he enters. But there is one catch though, much like Stallaert last year he will have to drop Matteo Trentin before the sprint. After those two, there's 5 riders who will regularly fight for the podium. There's Kristoff and Saber as well, but they're rated as sprinters.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Danny Summerhill | Andorra | | | 2 | Matteo Trentin | Mapei | | | 3 | Marcos Altur | Podium | | | 4 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | | 5 | Ruben Zepunkte | Minions | | | 6 | Maxime Daniel | Valio | | | 7 | Sep Vanmarcke | Repsol | | 8 | Vegard Breen | Bakkafrost | | | 9 | Mekseb Debesey | Xero | | | 10 | Eugert Zhupa | Kraftwerk | |
Hills
It's hard to look past last year's star Eduard Beltran, all in all I think the hills have become a bit weaker compared to last year since I was even considering putting Waeytens on the list. In the right circumstances, all these riders can get really close to a win. We might also see some climbers in a few races, but they're not listed here.
| Hills | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Eduard Beltran | Swisslion | | | 2 | Emanuel Buchmann | Mapei | | | 3 | Ion Izagirre | Polar | | | 4 | Pedro Miguel Paulinho | Berg | | | 5 | Simon Yates | Desigual | | | 6 | Dimitri Claeys | Minions | | | 7 | Maurice Schreurs | GCN | | | 8 | Cesare Di Maggio | Campari | | | 9 | Diego Ulissi | Aramco | | | 10 | Pello Bilbao | Kraftwerk | |
Stage Races
Did you think your 79MO guy would score big this year? Guess again, the PCT is stacked this year. Tenorio should take voer from Pluchkin this year, but guys like Gesink and kudus could be there as well. I think Monsalve as 10th best rider says it all.
| Stage Races | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Justo Tenorio | Desigual | | | 2 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | Popo | | | 3 | Robert Gesink | Duolingo | | | 4 | Merhawi Kudus | Repsol | | | 5 | Tim Wellens | Fablok | | | 6 | Stefan Denifl | DK | | | 7 | Mattia Cattaneo | MOL | | | 8 | Ryan Eastman | Azteca | | | 9 | Rigoberto Uran | Minions | | | 10 | Yonathan Monsalve | Bakkafrost | |
Sprints
This will be another very close division. With the sprint randomness and just so many riders close together, I put the best allrounders first and there Ewan has the speed advantage over Gaviria. Kump is not the fastest, but there will be many races where he's the only sprinter left. After that, it will all depend on form and luck.
| Sprints | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Caleb Ewan | Podium | | | 2 | Fernando Gaviria | Lierse | | | 3 | Marko Kump | Nordstrom | | | 4 | Ben Swift | Berg | | | 5 | Alexander Kristoff | Adastra | | | 6 | Ivano Lo Cicero | MOL | | | 7 | Oscar Guerao | DK | | | 8 | Oscar Alavino | Aramco | | | 9 | Lahcen Saber | Swisslion | | | 10 | Jacopo Guarnieri | Bakkafrost | |
Time Trial
Finaly the time trials. Coppel is gone, Zmorka is tke new alpha male. Fiedler is second best and then there's guys like Paillot and Fraile who can survive a few hills for a good GC. Repsol stacked here as usual, but I only accept their best rider. Also watch out for Tenorio if he shows up somewhere.
| Time Trial | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Marlen Zmorka | Repsol | | | 2 | Jacob Fiedler | Mapei | | | 3 | Yoann Paillot | Farfetch | | | 4 | Omar Fraile | Desigual | | | 5 | Jesse Sergent | GCN | | | 6 | Damien Howson | Duolingo | | | 7 | Lucas Schadlich | Kraftwerk | | | 8 | Emilien Viennet | Polar | | | 9 | Alexander Cataford | Podium | | | 10 | Hugues Mottin | Swisslion | |
Edited by Ollfardh on 26-10-2020 14:43
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-10-2020 12:31
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World Champion
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Then all that's left is the final ranking. Like before I will not give exact points but rather an indication. This year more than ever it shows the flaws of this system, as teams with 2 good riders will score very high while teams with great depth score too low. Furthermore there's definitely great riders who will score big but just missed the cut at some point. Still, I hope you enjoy my PCT leader preview, see it more as an indication of wins rather than final point rankings.
| Title favourites | | 1 | Mapei | | 2 | Desigual | | Having a shot at promotion | | 3 | Podium | | 4 | Swisslion | | 5 | Repsol | | 6 | Lierse | | 7 | Berg | | 8 | Popo | | 9 | Minions | | 10 | Duolingo | | 11 | Polar | | 12 | Andorra | | Safe midtable | | 13 | DK | | 14 | MOL | | 15 | Nordstrom | | 16 | GCN | | 17 | Fablok | | Could be in trouble | | 18 | Adasta | | 19 | Aramco | | 20 | Bakkafrost | | 21 | Farfetch | | 22 | Valio | | 23 | Kraftwerk | | 24 | Campari | | 25 | Azteka | | As doomed as last year | | 26 | Xero |
Edited by Ollfardh on 26-10-2020 13:11
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 26-10-2020 12:35
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TRUEEEEE 
I suspect you nailed Team DK position though
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| redordead |
Posted on 26-10-2020 12:48
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You predicted us 12th last year and you didn't even like Beltran that much. This year with Beltran nerfed we are suddenly in 4th 
I have to agree that your system is flawed so I will take this prediction with a large grain of salt 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 26-10-2020 12:49
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Tour de France Champion
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And thus the weirdness of predicting Podium Ambition is well underway. One review 19th, barely safe. Second review, 3rd and chasing promotion
Like Sykkel's you are definitely showing the PCT is a deep and competitive field this season with only a handful of outlying teams at either end of the pack.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 26-10-2020 13:08
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I don't know who this imposter Desingual team is but hopefully they don't stop us from promoting. In all seriousness, thanks for the overview. Always nice to see where our leaders stack up. 
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 26-10-2020 13:17
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Interesting to be 5th while being "robbed" of a leader because having two (or three) in the same category 
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| knockout |
Posted on 26-10-2020 13:27
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Lets see if this will be such a good random number generator as last year. At least Mapei at the top suggests that this year might be worse since that has a good chance to actually happen
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-10-2020 13:27
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World Champion
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Quadsas - I think so too, your team might actually work here 
Red - I'm thinking higher of Beltran now, so your rating goes up. But yeah, still lacking a bit of depth I think
TMM - The "teams with 2 good riders" part was just for you
MrE - oops
Aquarius - That can only mean big things for you
Knockout - I'm actually quite convinced Mapei will take the win this year. But then again, I had a good feeling about the Minions last year as well.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| fintas |
Posted on 26-10-2020 13:38
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I’m sorry but just like last year I think you’re going to fail badly in relation to my team.
If in the last season I did not agree that we were one of the teams to be relegated, this year too I think we are very far from having any chance to fight for one of the promotion places. In my opinion we will be again between 13th and 17th place.
Still thanks a lot for the preview
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:01
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Tour de France Champion
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I will point out we have a rider named in three categories!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:32
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If we're safe midtable come end of season then I'd be very amazed.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:51
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I see you're overestimating me again
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:59
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Fintas - Read the disclaimer
TMM - Yeah but you know, time trials..
White - Kump really does it for you. But I've seen two seasons of Kump vs. Van Asbroeck and I think he's a lifesaver if you use him well
Marco - Probably, but like Zepunkte I just can't see what's wrong with him looking at his stats.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 26-10-2020 15:03
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18th - not great, not terrible
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 26-10-2020 15:08
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I'll happily take safe in mid table. A good spot to be in 
.: Manager of :.
.: My Awards :.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 26-10-2020 18:42
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Small Tour Specialist
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You predicted Kraftwerk perfectly last year in 13th, hope you got it wrong with 23rd this year but I would not be too surprised as it's looking like a dogfight to avoid relegation.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 26-10-2020 19:49
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24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| Heine |
Posted on 04-11-2020 08:44
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I like predictions that put me on top, even though my team is top heavy. Leaders and then 50k riders, so it is a big risk
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
