Welcome to the 2019 edition of Tour de Slovenie! As last year, the parcours features a ton of time trial kilometers, a flat stage and two uphill finishes.
However, there is an important difference - the first stage will be a hilly TTT, instead of last year's ITT! Therefore, not only are ITT and puncheur abilities still very important - a rider without a decent TTT squad supporting him might lose the race on the first stage already!
Let's see what this looks like in detail:
The only former winner present this year is 2015 champion Rolland. He will certainly like the many ITT kilometers, and even though having declined this winter, he may still have some hopes of taking home a good result.
If a prediction was already hard last year due to the lack of knowledge of the TT - puncheur mix it would take to win the race - it was finally a puncheur ahead of two TTers and another puncheur - it is even harder this year, as the teams' TTT capabilities have to be added as an additional factor. And as if that wasn't enough, it had to be a hilly TTT stage, where it's even harder to predict which teams will be up front.
But as every challenge makes you stronger, let's accept it and try to group the teams by their estimated potential of this first stage, before going into more detail on the individual riders. For this, the teams get a rating from 1 to 5 for Hills and TT, based on their 6 best riders per discipline. Finally, the hill rating is weighed twice as much as the TT one to get an average rating - which could be completely wrong, but at least we tried:
Team
Hills rating
TT rating
Avg. rating 2x Hills + TT
Kraftwerk Man Machine
*****
**
****
Valio - Viking Genetics
****
****
****
Euskaltel - Elior
****
***
****
Duolingo
***
*****
****
Philips
****
**
***
Rakuten Pro Cycling
***
****
***
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
****
*
***
Campari/Asahi development
****
*
***
ISA - Hexacta
***
***
***
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
***
***
***
Xero Racing
***
***
***
Berg Cycles
***
**
***
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
***
**
***
Andorra Cycling Project
***
*
**
ENI - MOL
**
***
**
cycleYorkshire
*
*****
**
Delvaux
**
**
**
Swisslion Cycling Team
**
**
**
Sauber Petronas Racing
**
*
**
Team Europcar
*
*
*
Carrefour - ESPN
*
*
*
Kraftwerk have brought a huge hills squad. Most of them aren't top time trialists, though, so they certainly will hope that the uphill parts will make the difference. There aren't that many flat kilometers, so this strategy might work - which would be great for Philips, Lierse and Campari, too, as their line-ups consist of great puncheurs and mediocre TTers as well. Valio, on the other hand, have probably nominated the most balanced squad of the expected top teams, closely followed by Euskaltel. Duolingo are probably among the two most powerful pure TT teams, but their puncheurs are rather mid-tier - they will certainly hope for the pure TT capabilities to be more important. The same holds for Rakuten and especially cycleYorkshire, the other very TT-heavy squad.
Will one of these teams take it, or are we completely off target with this prediction?
Now, let's head over to the top puncheurs and time trialists. There are many of them, so we can expect a highly interesting race:
Puncheurs
Hi
TT
Acc
Time trialists
Hi
TT
Acc
Kelderman
82
70
72
Durbridge
67
81
64
Izagirre
81
77
64
Kittel
64
81
73
Dowsett
80
64
71
Viennet
67
80
64
Flügel
80
64
72
Schädlich
64
80
76
Waeytens
80
65
73
Cornu
70
79
70
Gautier
80
64
77
Dempster
64
79
72
Barrio
79
58
67
Mottin
61
79
55
Trofimov
79
73
70
Robert
60
79
55
Gebrezgabihier
79
66
69
Ignatiev
73
78
79
Costa
79
75
70
Tennant
69
78
68
Bilbao
79
65
75
Balloni
66
78
67
Pichon
78
63
74
Sterobo
63
78
73
Ben Nasser
78
65
76
Li
61
78
75
Palini
78
66
74
Golovash
60
78
76
Serry
78
63
69
Ligthart
58
78
74
Zordan
77
55
74
Izagirre
81
77
64
Duchesne
77
68
79
Nepomnyachsniy
74
77
75
Kratochvila
77
70
64
Koren
73
77
65
Gougeard
77
67
68
Pokälä
71
77
65
Sepulveda
77
75
73
Christian
69
77
72
Zakarin
77
68
73
Cheung
67
77
66
Moscon
77
66
71
Nascimento
66
77
56
Le Gac
77
60
69
Hussein
64
77
53
Bratashcuk
77
58
67
Archbold
62
77
75
As you can easily see, one rider is in both lists: Ion Izagirre. He's probably the second best puncheur after Kelderman, but his lack of acceleration may deny him some bonus seconds in the hilly stages. However, he should get some massive gains on most other puncheurs in the long ITT.
However, Iberia is expected to lose some time in the first stage. He might be able to get back a lot of it on stage 4, but will it be enough?
We already mentioned Wilco Kelderman as the strongest puncheur on this year's startlist. He definitely is one of the top favorites for the hilly stages, as besides his pure hill capabilities he's got a decent acceleration and great resistance as well. And he will need to do some good things in these stages, as he won't be able to keep up with the best in the ITT. However, even though the ITT is rated flat, it looks quite hilly, which he will certainly like.
We expect Philips to lose some time in the opening stage as well, but they can even be considered to be promising outsiders on that one as well. Can Kelderman gain more time on Izagirre on this stage and in the hills than he'll lose on stage 4?
Zico Waeytens is one of four "80 puncheurs". But whereas he definitely should be in the mix on stages 2 and 5 - especialy with his nice kick - he definitely lacks some TT skills to really hope for a good GC result. Except if the stage should turn out to be hilly enough for him. We'll see. Lierse SK was rated somewhere in the upper midfield for the TTT, which isn't too good news for Waeytens in terms of GC, either. Still, we're looking forward to some fireworks in the uphill finales.
In Alex Dowsett, we have a very similar rider coming next. A bit less acceleration, even a tad weaker in the ITT - but he should be fighting for stage wins in the hilly stages as well, and take some time on most of the TTers there.
However, his GC ambitions will probably not be boosted by Andorra's TTT result, as we expect them to be in the midfield as well. He'd have to gain a lot of time in the hills for this - let's see what's possible!
Aleksandar Flügel belongs to the same group as well. As his resistance isn't too high, he should be happy that the final uphills are rather short, so he's another candidate for stage wins. As the two previous riders, he is not among the top TTers, either.
However, Kraftwerk definitely is among the stage favorites for the opening TTT. The hills support they have brought is excellent as well, so they may be able to do the damage on ITT specialists that Flügel requires.
And then there is Cyril Gautier. The Frenchman has already proven his excellent punch this year, and due to his great acceleration, a stage win or two definitely wouldn't come as a surprise. As the aforementioned candidates, he isn't famous for his TT skill, though. Can the hills compensate for this?
At least, Valio seems to be ready to help their captain, as they are among the stage 1 favorites, too. So Gautier could be in a very similar situation as Flügel. Let's see if he continues to impress us.
Rui Costa has slightly declined, but he shouldn't be ruled out either. He could best be compared with Izagirre - i.e. strong on the hills and decent in ITTs - but a tad weaker in both. Still, if he's able to keep up with the top puncheurs, he'll definitely be able to target a good GC position due to his TT strength.
And Euskaltel could very well make a great job in the TTT, maybe even allowing Costa to have a shot at the leader's jersey, e.g. after stage 4.
Yet another good hybrid rider we have in Yuri Trofimov. His stats are very similar to Costa's, except that he's a better climber - which shouldn't really matter in this race. His TT is decent, too, but inferior to the former's. The question will be if he's able to keep up with Kelderman & Co. and gain enough time on the TT specialists to stay ahead in the GC.
It will surely be reassuring for him that Duolingo is expected to finish high up in the TTT, so he may get a head start on some great puncheurs.
The final puncheur we're taking a closer look at is Eduardo Sepulveda. Even though he's got a weaker hill stat than all of the aforementioned riders, he's a pretty good hybrid, matching Costa's TT capabilities. And as his physical values and acceleration are even stronger, he might be good for a surprise in the hilly stages. If he can more or less keep up, it will be interesting to see what he could get out of the TT. ISA - Hexacta seems to bring one of the midfield TTT squads as well. Not great, but not too bad either - that's likely going to be Sepulveda's situation after the first stage. It seems unlikely that he'll end up very high up in the GC, but if the hills and the ITT go well, he could still bring home a nice result.
Let's move on to the ITT powerhorses, where we start with Luke Durbridge. He should be one of the favorites for stage 4, but how much time can he win on the puncheurs? He doesn't like the hills that much, so the ITT profile may not be optimal for him, too. But if he's got a great day on that stage, and if the hilly stages aren't ridden too hard, he could do great things. Lots of "if's" - too many of them?
What we know for sure is that cycleYorkshire brings a very powerful TTT squad - at least for flat races. The TTT profile is hilly, so we don't expect them to do particularly well on that first stage. But they surely want to prove us wrong, as it would put Durbridge in a good position.
Marcel Kittel is the second "81 TTer", and he should get a great result on the ITT stage - if the parcours doesn't prove to be too hilly for him. Because he doesn't really like hills. He'll likely lose too much time on the hilly stages to really target the GC, but who knows?
We've already talked about Valio - they've got a great TTT setup. However, Kittel will really have to make sure he can hang on in this hilly race - but if he doesn't, they have another leader in Gautier.
Then, we could make a Copy&Paste of Durbridge for Emilien Viennet. Same team, same age, same hill stats, almost the same TT stats - they're just from a different continent. It may or may not be good for cycleYorkshire to have two so similar riders. But at least they can hope that if one fails in the hills, the other hangs on. And, of course, they'll have two top favorites for stage 4.
Lucas Schädlich is quite much in the same situation as Kittel. Great TTT squad, great ITT stat, aversion to hills. However, at least he's got a nice acceleration, and the uphill finishes are short - could this help him to not lose too much time on these stages? Kraftwerk has certainly nominated him to make some speed on the flatter parts in the TTT - but he first has to make sure to still be with his teammates by then. Given the team's great strength on the hills, this isn't guaranteed to happen. But at least he should get a good result out of stage 4 - if the hills don't break him.
Dominique Cornu is next on the list, and unlike the 80+ TTers, he shouldn't break too fast in the hilly stages. Sure, he won't be able to keep up with the top puncheurs, but maybe lose some less time than the aforementioned TTers foursome. The rather hilly flat-rated ITT could come in handy for him, maybe allowing him to not lose much time on the pure TT beasts, either. We'll see...
He should be able to keep up with his Duolingo teammates in the TTT, and do some work both on the hills and especially in the flat. Where will he finally end up? It seems to be quite open...
We take a look at Mikhail Ignatiev, too. The Russian can be counted among the hybrids with a TT specialization, but decent on the hills, meaning he could very well like the ITT profile. What could be a great advantage is his sprinter-like acceleration, even after two declines. It could be interesting to follow him.
But with Delvaux not having a strong TTT line-up, he will probably have to gain some time back in some other way. Maybe his remarkable fighting spirit will help him?
And as we are talking about fighting spirit, let's not forget Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy. He is a lot like Ignatiev. Of course, he loves stage races with mountains much more than the hilly ones, but as a decent puncheur and TTer with good acceleration and strong physical stats, he can do good things here as well.
But what role will he get? Yes, Valio should do well in the TT, and Nepomnyachsniy should really help them do so, but with Gautier and Kittel there are already two other possible leaders. Can you ever have too many options?
If the pure TT specialists should struggle, Kristjan Koren could be cycleYorkshire's leader. He can be categorized as Hill-TT-hybrid as well. But in the hilly stages he may lack a bit of acceleration. Should he be able to minimize the gaps to the pure puncheurs, then he could do some damage in the TT as well - if his team doesn't lose too much time on stage 1.
Lots of names, lots of different scenarios seem to be possible - it's difficult to name a top favorite. With last year's parcours, this would have been Izagirre, but this year? Well, let's find it out in the next days!
But before the action starts, let's have a quick look at some sprinters who made it here, mainly targeting stage 3. Without any surprise, the fastest PCT men are not present, but still there are some interesting names:
Rider
Spr
Acc
Hi
Rider
Spr
Acc
Hi
Vanoverschelde
80
75
62
Tzortzakis
79
74
62
Houle
79
78
75
Lay
79
81
60
Pelucchi
79
77
68
Kreder
78
80
70
Matthews
79
79
65
Contreras
78
80
68
Aberasturi
79
78
64
Kuboki
77
77
73
Colbrelli
79
75
61
Bar
77
76
70
While Vanoverschelde may have the best top speed, but his low acceleration could hurt him. Houle is slightly slower, but being a decent puncheur, he might be targeting the hilly stages as well. Which will surely not be the case for most other sprinters, such as Pelucchi. Team Europcar then brings a sprinter squad, having three "79 sprinters" in Matthews, Aberasturi and Lay, who has the best acceleration of this trio. Andorra brings a duo with Colbrelli and Tzortzakis, let's see how that works out. Kreder and Contreras are next; both can more or less handle the hills, but while this may help them to lose more energy on the stages 1 and 2, they've come here for stage 3, too.
We then have an interesting rider in Kuboki, who actually is a three-way-hybrid, as he's not afraid of the hills and is decent as well in both TT and sprint. Could he even have a shot at the GC?
This certainly won't be the case for the last man on the list, Bar. Even though he has some strength on the hills, he's come here to sprint.
Will the strategy of Team Europcar or Andorra, having multiple sprinters here, work? Will we even see an outsider win? We'll see.
And last but not least let's look at the U25 contenders. Gebrezgabihier was already in the puncheurs list. He'll probably not be able to target the GC, due to his lack of TT skills and due to ENI - MOL's expected lack of TTT strength. But the competition amongst the young riders should be less tough, so maybe his punch could bring him the white jersey. Moscon is a bit weaker on the hills, and has about equal TT capabilities. However, as Lierse might do better in the TTT, he could well be competing for the white jersey as well.
However, if the TTT works out more or less expected, Kanerva and Denz could be in a good position, too. The Finn is stronger than the German considering the ITT, though.
We then have Van Niekerk and Maccagli, who are decent TTers, but lack the strength on the hills. And they might lose too much time in the opening stage already.
Finally, let's mention Dulanjana, Andriafenomananiaina and Cosnefroy, who all have a pretty good TT and at least some puncheur traits. Especially Dulanjana, being part of a strong TTT team, could have his chances as well.
One final thing: The startlist! We have 20 PCT teams, with Euskaltel - Elior being the only CT team having applied to participate.
I think this preview isn't detailed enough Jk Brilliant stuff Fabianski thanks for your effort!
I actually like our chances here. With Kelderman being the top favourite, I think Trofimov could still fight for a podium place with te right conjugation of factors. We'll see though, as this should be a very open contest.
We are in this race with only one goal, getting into the breaks and maybe fighting for KoM. For the general we have no ambition, it will be hard to get better than a top 20
We have a six-man team here due to race clashes, which obviously is far from ideal for the opening TTT. Hopefully we can get through it without Ignatiev losing too much time, but realistically, we will probably be aiming for stage results here. Excited to see Ignatiev and Gallopin in action, and hopefully Kreder can get a good result on stage three as well.
Such a wonderful preview, so detailed and so I can't believe you managed to not mention Stanislau Bazhkou at all!
Hopefully he can prove you wrong as we've sent quite a strong squad (by our standards) here to support him. Houle will also provide a double threat and hopefully he can win stage 2 or 3 (if he does stage 2 then also aiming for points classification) and maybe even do decently on GC. Would also like to see Debesay or Morne getting points, but first and foremost we want to aim high and get a great GC result from Bazhkou to start his season and a stage win along the way!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
This needs to be a big race for us given how things have gone so far. Hoping the extra MO skills will help with the TTs since hill pretty much doesnt matter on hilly TTs.
Hopefully Serry can limit his loses on the hill stages, and we can gain time on the TT over most others.
Awesome preview! This is what PCT brings me new of excitement, no mountains but riders for all terrains to bring hope, the GC doesn't bring me many expectations as the ITT I feel will be too important, the hills will have some gaps but to get a stage win is the priority (although it isn't THAT likely too), as with the sprinters I brought my two leadout men and see how they work together and we can build a leadout.
First of all, absolutely stunning preview, Fabianski. Thank you!
One of crucial races and first test of slightly improved Izagirre in PCM18. Anything but podium will be considered as a huge failure and step down to CT.
Hoping for not too big loss in opening TTT, selective hills and good daily form in ITT.
Well, catching another team in a TTT is definitely beyond expectations. Just a bit annoyed it's Waeytens and Moscon losing the extra seconds, PCM18 didn't fix that at least.
Honestly I don't recall the planning for this race but I know that I've had it so that Dowsett could keep up in the TTT but that apparently cost too much time, hoping in the ITT he'll recover some as he can deal with it much better than some of the other favourites, Barrio and Zordan didn't loose time either so the damage is done but hope arrises. With GW at the same time we had no option too other than have a preference and Summerhill needs the best support so there was clearly a lack of synth here.
Still not a disaster I'd say, some teams were slower indeed, the report was amazing Fabianski and congratz to Duolingo, now let's hope Summerhill can bring it home in Belgium
Ouch Really big GC blow, my fault for bad race selections giving us an ugly triple clash with GW and ToME meaning we only got 6 riders here.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Tour de Slovenie 
Really big GC blow, my fault for bad race selections giving us an ugly triple clash with GW and ToME meaning we only got 6 riders here.
