In short and my own words: The 3rd week with 4 tough mountain stages surely will be the deciding week while you can already gain big or lose in the first two weeks.
With so many different TT kilometers, it`s a tough one for pure climbers. A cobbled prologue, a super long 60km TTT, 31km of individual TT, all three pan flat but then in addition also 13km mountain TT, which is more for the pure climbers!
But it`s far from mountain and TT only! You only must do well on short climbs as no less than 3 stages are for puncheurs and here you can really lose a lot when not being the best on that terrain. Some of them look like harder stages as the Ardennes, where many stage racers wouldn`t even consider to go.
So whoever wins the Giro d'Italia 2018, he will be one of the most complete stage racers in the peloton.
Previous Winners
Year
1
2
3
2017
Alarcon
Peter Velits
Lachland Morton
2016
Pluchkin
Alarcon
Madrazo
2015
A. Schleck
Madrazo
Cunego
2014
Cunego
Pluchkin
Madrazo
2013
Phinney
Madrazo
Spilak
2012
Ricco
Sella
Pozzovivvo
2011
Cunego
Sella
Nibali
2010
Cunego
Pellizotti
Ricco
2009
Cunego
Sella
Pellizotti
2008
Cunego
Ricco
A. Schleck
2007
Cunego
Di Luca
Simoni
While 2017 saw one of the weaker lineups for a GT, 2018 will have a super packed and very open startlist but without having a single 85 climber, who go elsewhere!
Stolen from SN`s 2017 thread but I found it very nice overview actually:
Team Leaders 2018
Teams
GC
Sprint
Other
Aegon - Lavazza
Dekker
Groenewegen
Boom
Air France - KLM
Quintana
-
Kwok
Aker - MOT
Guldhammer
Ciolek
Oss
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Morton
Edmondson
Dyball
Berg Cycles
Cattaneo
Silvestre
Van Winden
Desigual
Nibali
-
Fraile
EA Vesuvio
Schleck
-
Goos
eBuddy
Dombrowski
Van Poppel
Howson
Evonik - ELKO
Vosekalns
-
Sergis
Festina - Dexia
Lecuisinier
Tzortzakis
Vlatos
Gazelle
Bibby
-
Formolo
Grieg - Eftel
Laengen
Itturia
Wisniowski
Hugo Boss
Alarcon
-
Carapaz
Isostar Slovenija
Faiers
-
Ricco
Meiji - JR East
Choi
Hayakawa
Arashiro
Moser - Sygic
Hirt
Chen
Vysna
Philips - Continental
Henao Montoya
Saber
Costa
Porto - Prio
Machado
Avelino
Figueiredo
RBC Pro Cycling
Cort Nielsen
-
Cataford
Team Puma - SAP
Bongiorno
Demare
Sütterlin
Team Tinkoff
Kolesnikov
-
Kunshin
Team UBS
Amador
-
Dillier
T-Mobile
Preidler
Docker
-
Volvo acc. by Spotify
Abal
Bertilsson
Ludvigsson
Stage Racer
Last year`s winner Alarcon being back just like runner-up and trained Morton. Though with a tougher startlist they might more fight for the podium as top favourites are Dombrowski and Schleck. One a rising star, who is motivated to get the first GT here while second is on the way down but still able to get a last GT to his long palmares.
And then there`s Amador, who might be below the radar a bit. But as 84 rated climber he actually has the best TT and a good hill. So might be able to make a big move here?
Behind them Machado, Lecuisinier, Guldhammer, Cattaneo or wildcard rider Henao Montoya will need to stay concentrated and then be up there once the others are struggling!
And then lots of riders with potential top10`s but also in danger of ending in the middle of nowhere due to the packed and very similar field such as Quintana, Abal, Hirt, Dekker, Choi or Nibali alongside many more as seen below:
Mo
Hi
TT
Acc
Mo
Hi
TT
Acc
Morton
84
76
73
67
Pantano Gómez
79
71
54
68
Schleck
84
74
73
78
Bongiorno
79
75
68
69
Dombrowski
84
75
71
75
Preidler
79
77
58
69
Alarcon
84
73
67
78
Kirsch
78
74
71
67
Amador
84
75
78
72
Aru
78
74
64
70
Machado
83
76
73
70
Vosekalns
78
75
62
71
Cattaneo
82
70
79
70
Chamorro
78
75
65
74
Lecuisinier
82
75
77
74
Formolo
78
76
69
71
Henao Montoya
82
71
71
73
Ablenado
78
67
72
65
Quintana
81
74
71
66
Faiers
78
71
75
73
Guldhammer
81
77
71
76
Ricco
78
76
66
67
Hirt
81
74
73
76
Giogieri
78
73
66
67
Abal
81
70
77
73
Goos
77
74
76
73
Dekker
80
74
77
69
Bibby
77
76
77
71
Nibali
80
75
75
56
Cort Nielsen
77
74
72
71
Carapaz
80
71
72
65
Kolesnikov
77
72
72
77
Choi
80
74
75
68
Kunshin
77
73
71
71
Sprinters
Sprinters have up to 8 realistic chances, of which 1-2 though look half hilly and might need some punch as well on that climbs.
There are 4 standout sprinters in Avelino, Ciolek, Groenewegen and Demare. Some have won here or in similar races throughout their career already. Those 4 are the ones to beat! Though as said some stages look rather hilly and there the Puma sprinter is the dominant rider and that makes him top favourite to win the point jersey as he should be consistent and also scoring when others struggle.
Behind those some more riders will surely hope to get some top results or even a win such as Saber, Van Poppel, Tzortzakis or Silvestre with only outside chances everywhere else.
Leadout wise Aker should be nicely set up Ciolek with strong riders around him while Groenewegen might miss one more rider to support but has a bit as well, which equally goes for Avelino. Demare has more riders with a decent sprint but is lacking that one super leadout really, which makes Ciolek actually the rider with the best team behind him. Maybe challenged by Philips` Saber, who could surprise with a train on some stages.
Sp
Acc
Hi
Sp
Acc
Hi
Ciolek
83
79
66
Docker
79
77
68
Avelino
83
78
64
Bertilsson
79
77
69
Groenewegen
82
81
66
Santos
78
78
64
Demare
82
81
79
Selig
77
79
65
Saber
81
79
68
Sbaragli
77
78
66
Van Poppel
81
78
64
Mansilla
77
78
71
Tzortzakis
81
77
64
Dakteris
77
77
64
Silvestre
80
81
67
Carvalho
77
77
61
Scully
79
80
67
Edmondson
77
75
64
Hayakawa
79
79
65
Dzamastagic
76
78
70
Krieger
79
79
62
Martinelli
76
76
64
Chen
79
78
63
Yamamoto
76
76
65
Time Trialists - Hills
On the left the top time trialists while of them only the later ones Oliveira and Boom have some cobbled skill for the prologue, which might make Vlatos or Dillier still favourite.
Pure cobblers like Wisniowski or Polanc might have outside chances if those skills are more important!
On the right the puncheurs and it`s a wild card rider leading the list in Costa, which could be a nice opportunity on some stages. Then already Demare as mentioned in the sprinter area as also his team mates as great support. Guldhammer as best of the stage racers but then most are very similar really.
Expectations:
Dekker to fight for a late top10 and Groenewegen as one of the top3 sprinters here to continue his 2017 GT run with 1-2 stage wins and fight for the point competition. He has full support by Sbaragli, Martinelli, Boom for that.
TTT wise Boom, Dekker, Frison, Dumoulin, Koep should also do decent.
Other than that will try to make 2 reports/day, but surely will struggle to do so at some days due to not having access in time due to work or other stuff.
Oh GT season starts. Time to get an all time low 3 GT score as unlike in past seasons i dont even have a top sprinter or top puncheur at any of them.
Mansilla and Dzamastagic for the sprints - especially later one has quite some expectations on him. I exoect him to deliver at least in week three.
Vosekalns, Sakalou, Sergis and Egger hopefully race this aggressive. All of them have nice stats for a KoM prey and some of them already have the experience from past seasons.
Interesting GC startlist. Schleck should once again be the GC favourite but it could get quite interesting to watch the top 5 battle with several (especiall dombo and alarcon) in the hunt.
Considered Martin here for a long time, but opted out. Instead a quite anonymous team where Iturria and Stake Laengen top 40 probably is a good result. Hopefully we'll get to see them in the breaks in the mountains, but not counting on it. Our best chances is without a doubt the prologue, where hopefully Wisniowski can take advantage of his skills on the cobbles. Probably need a win there to make the race a success. Certainly a risk that, seeing how it went in Baltic Chain Tour last year, but fingers crossed for a good day.
Must say I've got big expectations too, especially for Ciolek, as I've given him a proper train. He should be a safe top 3 sprinter AI wise too in this field, I think, which should give him a train on all sprint stages. Seeing Demare here is slightly surprising, but it could well be a good thing, as it hopefully makes our team mates work less during the stages to make it a sprint, as there are other teams to take part too. At least I rate Demare as the top sprinter here, ahead of Ciolek. Then I've got Groenewegen as the third best sprinter here, just ahead of Avelino.
For the GC, Guldhammer should be a top 10 rider, I think, eventhough more than ten riders are listed with the same mountain stat or higher. Though, his acceleration and hilly stat too makes me confident he should land a top 10, eventhough it's at the lower end of it. Especially the hilly stages should be key, after all they're the reason I sent him here as three hilly stages comes well before the third mountain stage. Especially the first hilly stage looks promising for Guldhammer, and being the strongest puncheur among the GC contenders, I really hope he makes use of that.
This could be a huge, huge race for us if Ciolek is able to grab a couple of wins, which he really should be able to, as there will be plenty of opportunities. And I also think we need a huge race here where we succeed both in the sprints and with a solid GC by Guldhammer, considering how the spring season went. To make some breathing space down to the relegation zone before the Tour and other big races coming, a good Giro will be very welcome
For the GC battle at the top, I think Schleck has to be the favourite, with Dombrowski the obvious challenger. Maybe Amador for the final podium spot, with Morton, Alarcon and maybe Lecuisinier as his biggest challengers.
Strong startlist unfortunately. Yet Lecuisinier should be a very good bet for the U25 jersey and if he is aggressive he could be in for a 5-7th GC. I also hope to see both Chamorro and Vasyliv fairly competitive. Vlatos and Tzortzakis to fight for a stagewin hopefully. We'll see...
Strong GC field! I'll pick Alarcon for the win. Hopefully Amador can yo top 5, but he has been really disappointing so far this season. It does look like he has a good advantage in the TTs, so hopefully we can get some points there. Also, I really like our TTT lineup and i think its possibly the strongest that we will field this year, so hopefully we perform well there.
Thanks for the preview, really looking forward to this one!
Simply couldn't resist not sending Alarcon here again after the show he delivered last year! Much better field this time around, so our more realistic aim for this edition is a podium spot and a stage win along the way!
Schleck is for me the top favourite this year, although there a several potential candidates. My guess is that when one of the top dogs gets the jersey, it will be hard to shake it from him, if he got a good team that is though.
Super excited for the first GT of the year, hope our team will contribute to animate the race a bit atleast.
First race of the season for Cattaneo, and soon one of the most important of the calendar. The startlist is stronger than I expected and so the initial expectations will have to be lower. Still he has the ability to fight for the top5, the three hill stages can do some damage but with 101km of TT the time lost in those stages can and should be recovered.
To help him on the mountain he will have only Bartl and Reguigui but at TTT I think we will have a team capable of a good result with 80-79-78-73-73-72-71-59.
Silvestre will have another opportunity to prove to me that I am wrong to think that it was a mistake to renew him and pay what I paid him. So far his season has been a real disaster, in this race have to at least be able to fight for a few stages and get several places in the top10.
The rest of the team will have to settle for some break during the race.
Unlike many I do not consider Dombrowski as a favorite on par with Schleck. For me Amador is above Dombrowski in the possibilities of winning this race.
Well. Morton is a proven disappointment, so I should rather expect a lower Top-10 instead of hoping for a podium like last year here. May depend on daily form in the early key stages, but I just can't see him denying his low acceleration opposing to those other MO 84 guys. If he performs like he did at P-N, we are doomed anyway.
Let's start with a quick word on the GC favorites: Undoubtedly, Morton would be my preferred winner of this Giro, to make up for all his shortcomings.
Interestingly, of the five 84 climbers, the two theoretically most suited to the route (Morton and Amador, albeit very slightly of course) are the ones with the worst GT palmares, which should make for an interesting battle. Will we even see a final Schleck victory?
Now onto Puma's ambitions for this Giro.
The decision to send Demare here instead of sticking to our initial idea of having him put his mark on each TdF in some way had been made very early on this off-season, with several stages here looking absolutely perfect for his abilities (5,6,9,21) while simultaneously scaring away the 84s, and therefore ciclamino looking like an achievable goal.
However, I really didn't expect that he would be the only one of the big four punchy sprinters (+MVS, VdL, Kump) to make the trip to Italy! I could've bet on at least two, possibly even three being here.
Let's find out who of us got it wrong this time.
This obviously increases the pressure just as much as it increases his chances.
But, with the confidence gained in the spring races and the consistency his sprint train promises (hil/sp of 77/74, 73/73 and 72/74), we need to make the Top 3 in most sprint finishes and hope to come home with 2-3 stage wins.
The points jersey should be just about reachable with such results, with no outstanding climber or Phinney/Ponzi/Trofimov around and the prologue, TTT and long TT taking away opportunities for most of the GC guys to score in that classification. Obviously, taking that jersey home would be a huge result for the team and Demare personally.
The flat sprinters present look like decent opposition, with Ciolek hopefully not ruining my mood too often and Groenewegen being a proven GT sprinter by now.
Still, I hope the vertical gain will accumulate in their legs and regularly leave them just short of their full potential. Additionally, I hope none of them will make it to Brescia for the final stage.
On the hilly stages, opposition isn't what could be expected of a GT, in particular in Ponzi's home territory, but stages 3 and 11 might have too much of a mo/hil ratio for Demare to feature anyway.
About our GC hope Bongiorno:
I believe he is yet again in the right tier of climbers to be around 15th-20th come the third week and can repeat his success of the past, making a couple of decisive breaks to get closer to a Top 10 overall and fight for the KoM jersey.
Luckily, thanks to Herklotz we could finally get rid of our annual goal here, so the only pressure comes from the additional points to be scored.
His support is fine but not major, with the TTT and Demare taking away resources. Mager is a great domestique on all terrains, Bevin and Hadi can climb decently as well, while Felline will be mostly on Demare's side but can help on a few occasions too.
Sütterlin has made the roster specifically for the TTT, where Bevin and our sprint train of Hadi and Cavagna will provide a decent foundation. Bongiorno is the 5th best TTer of that lineup, right where we need him.
All in all, I hope everyone gets to enjoy at least some part of this race from their perspective, and thanks roturn for yet again covering a GT, I already know you'll do a great job! (and have a cookie if you actually read all of this)
Interesting to see if Van Poppel can count in the sprints here.
Can Dombrowski beat Schleck? Well, he came very close in last year's Vuelta so I don't see why he couldn't do it this year in Giro with Schleck getting weaker. Obviously, I'd be happy with a podium here, but I'm really hoping Dombrowski can bring home the big trophy.
Am hoping that Choi can do well here, and make us worthy of a wildcard. I think he could probably finish in the Top 10 if he rides to his standard but there are a lot of riders slightly better and worse who can take away his odds of a Top 10. Hayakawa actually doesn't look like a horrible bet for some Top 5 placings depending on the day.
First of all another top 10 by David Abal seems very hard with this startlist but I hope he can as last year surprise a bit and secure our top 10 goal.
But we have sent a good TT squad here to get some extra time in the TTT.
I´m betting for Dombo to win here, and hopefully Morton can secure a podium place with Schleck so that means no Alarcon on podium? That seems tough.
Groenwegen will be the A sprinter here I guess, hopefully Bertilsson will secure a few points in the sprints.
I was lowkey hoping for Cavagna to make it into the U25 top 3, but it was not meant to be yet. Congrats to Wisniowski, 21 race days decently spent
Sütterlin didn't have expectations anyway, Bongiorno's loss is irrelevant in the long run, and Demare is just able to attack the leader's jersey with a possible win tomorrow, albeit that's a long shot.
Let's see what the sprints bring!
Edited by cio93 on 24-10-2018 11:18
Fun prologue, and a good result for Walsleben. Had hopes of the win before the Giro, but seeing Wisniowski, Polanc and Boom be here, a top 3 feels very good. Solid start by Guldhammer too, now it will be all about staying safe on the flat stage 2, before he can hopefully prove himself on the hills.
Though, every stage is a potential highlight this race, as Ciolek and his train will hopefully be seen for the first time ever on stage 2, excited for that!
Congratulations tastasol, Wisniowski definitely doing what he came for, which must be satisfying.
Alarcon
Peter Velits
Lachland Morton
Pluchkin
Madrazo
A. Schleck
Cunego
Phinney
Spilak
What a rider he is 
