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Colombo Classic Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 28-10-2017 05:38
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 Colombo Classic
Our first ever race in the new PTHC category is also the first edition of the Colombo Classic. In and around the Sri Lankan capital, it's an undulating first 100km before a fairly flat run-in to the centrepiece climb. The hill in question is very steep with gradients in the high teens and another kick as it flattens out of a few hundred metres at high slopes. The descent into the finish isn't too technical but there are some tricky bends however no groups for a sprint should split up or soloists' gap dramatically decrease, though there could be a catch. The last two kilometres, despite not looking it on the profile, are quite flat which could see a regular sprint.
The PTHC category offers a pure mix of PT and PCT riders and some of the best of both divisions are out in force here today, which we'll touch on in a moment. It certainly isn't of the standard of it's cousin across the continent Badaling International but the fans in Sri Lanka, taken by the newfound growth of cycling in their county, should see a cracking race with a hopefully explosive climb with the favourites duking it out. Without any further ado, let's meet 'em.
| Rider | HIL | ACC | Rider | HIL | ACC |  Hagen | 85 | 79 |  Boswell | 80 | 76 |  Ginanni | 83 | 74 |  Demare | 79 | 81 |  Sagan | 82 | 76 |  Costa | 80 | 72 |  Bobridge | 83 | 80 |  Betancourt | 80 | 74 |  Kinoshita | 81 | 77 |  Kwiatkowski | 79 | 75 | | Kelderman | 82 | 72 |  Beltran | 79 | 76 |  Gastauer | 82 | 76 |  Dowsett | 80 | 71 | | (PDL) Lutsenko | 81 | 81 | Zaini | 80 | 70 |  Schreurs | 81 | 74 |  Juul-Jensen | 78 | 79 |  McCarthy | 81 | 74 | (PRP) Borges | 78 | 81 |
Quickly back to our balance: 1/2 of our top favourites are from the PT, which is pretty good. It's also only 6/4 in the top 10, but the elephant in the room is, in fact, from PCT: Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian is hoping for a dominant season in PCT and despite the PT stars in attendance (which would make it even more intimidating), this is the best place to start after a decent wildcard performance in Badaling International. On paper he's easily the favourite with his proficiency in the hills.
Looking to match him are, predominantly, PT men Ginanni, Bobridge and Sagan. The Slovakian is on a high after winning the PT season opener whilst the other two are very strong and can never be counted out, especially in a weaker-than-PT field such as this one. The Slovakian or Aussie could be very dangerous in a two or three-up sprint whilst the Gazelle man will look for a killer attack on the hill. Also in contention could be last year's PCT individual winner Kinoshita as well as serious contention from PT men (PDL) Lutsenko, Kelderman and Gastauer.
If it's a reduced sprint only one man will be our top favourite and that is the freshly crowned French Champion Arnaud Demare. He'd be a favourite with his hill skills alone (lessened by his service of Kelderman) but his world-class sprint brings him up a level again. Meanwhile the likes of Kwiatkowski and Boswell probably can't win the race but with good skills will be up there as well. Also falling into this category are a few groups of two: McCarthy and Schreurs who are very good riders and could podium, Costa and Betancourt who are solid but unspectacular without the day of their lives and Zaini and Dowsett who are more one-stat wonders who could disappoint and be a bit invisible or pick up solid points.
Also to finish us off a couple of wildcards in the favourites, and a couple of well-liked riders among the managers and fans. Juul-Jensen and (PRP) Borges are very good riders in the hills anyway but could mix it up with a very fast turn of speed, with a surprise attack once the favourites are tiring or holding on for a sprint. All in all, this should be an unmissable race as we welcome a new classic into our ranks and the PTHC category along with some super-hot puncheurs. The Sri Lankan fans are always good value too. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 28-10-2017 06:39
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If I had to bet we'll see a very weird sprint with a 1-2 for a team. Best guess is Demare/Kelderman
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| Heine |
Posted on 28-10-2017 06:56
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Hoping to steal a top 10, that would bee good. Hoping for Hagen to win as he dosen't really fight against me  And it would be great for Grieg to get a victory
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 28-10-2017 07:40
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Sent Kwiatkowski here because I thought maybe the MO stat will have an impact on that climb. Looks like that might not be true though, so no big expectations, at least my other goal of getting to see him in action early is achieved.  Also, given we're not big favourites, it seems like Kaspa may have a chance to begin his first (well, technically second) race in the Netia colours with a breakaway? Would be cool. 
Thanks Jandal for a top notch preview! A PCT rider being the #1 favourite here just seems wrong. Will take Bobridge for the win though.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-10-2017 07:45
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Podium must be the goal and I would be really disapppointed if Bobridge finishes outside the Top-5 here. Obviously, it's EBHs race to lose, but Sagan and Ginanni (as well as Bobridge) won't give him an easy day, I hope. Let's just get rid of Demare before the finish
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| tastasol |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:00
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Decent outing in Badaling, but this is were it counts. Need EBH to get a good start on his 29 days, so hopefully a podium here. Expecting Sagan to be tough yet again. Thanks for a brilliant preview, Jandal.
And oh, lets indeed get rid of Demare before a sprint, tsmoha. EBH-Bobridge team attack?
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:08
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Curious to see how Betancourt makes his debut for us. Top ten would be a good result given the field, but he's not exactly the type who can sprint at the end.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:15
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tastasol wrote:
And oh, lets indeed get rid of Demare before a sprint, tsmoha. EBH-Bobridge team attack?
Any Bobridge attack would be a good attack. So, yeah, why not?
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:30
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I could use some points from here, or at least a result better than 52nd...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| jaxika |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:44
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Hoping for a breakaway |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:47
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wait no di Maggio in a hilly classic? 
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:49
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My main aim in PTHC race selection was to give Gastauer more race opportunities this season, so this is the start of that.
Fairly unique profile, so will be interesting to see how the race plays out. Success in races like these for Hagen will be key for the success of that transfer I feel - as obviously the most likely PCT rider to beat PT riders.
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| knockout |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:53
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Very interesting route, would have loved to participate. I'm curious to see how well Puma does as they bring a similar team to what I would have brought if I were to race this race.
My hope is of course that the PCT teams will do well and steal as many points as possible.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 28-10-2017 09:59
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knockout wrote:
My hope is of course that the PCT teams will do well and steal as many points as possible. |
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| fintas |
Posted on 28-10-2017 10:04
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Vogt number 1 of the team hope the game make Costa the leader and not Vogt..
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| jaxika |
Posted on 28-10-2017 10:15
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Feared the mountain ratio  |
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 28-10-2017 10:16
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Have absolutely no expectations. Can I get one ranking point if I abandon the race here and now? |
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| ember |
Posted on 28-10-2017 10:48
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Fingers crossed EBH can deliver for Grieg. Would also be good for my team, the more points he can "steal" from PT teams, the better
After the unlucky racing in China, it's difficult to tell what to expect here. Maybe a top 15 for Beltran, I'll settle with that. Though, more important is that we try to use the numbers, as Beltran isn't an obvious PT leader, so it would be nice to see Dyrnes, Teuns and Hoelgaard join or create action before the final kilometers.
Solid preview, jandal7! Suspect we'll see a rather big group come together for the sprint due to the downhill finish, but who knows. Feels like it should be either that, or something similar to Badaling with a couple of riders in front of a big group. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-10-2017 11:41
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If the strong puncheurs work together to distance the rest, Ginanni should deliver a top 5. But if they don't this might turn into a disappointing sprint finish.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 28-10-2017 12:24
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We expect good points from this race category this season (just as last year's HC races did) where we will bring our full-strength lineups wherever possible, and we're excited to race against PCT opposition again.
Very difficult race to predict, the final looks rather unique.
Will a good attack on the steep stuff stick?
Will the undulating part after be where the peloton breaks up and lacks the firepower to bring favorites back?
Or will the plethora of descents eventually neutralize all moves and give us a frantic sprint...
Puma brought the core of our Badaling team over on the rather short trip here, with only Arndt subbing in for Bongiorno which doesn't change our uphill skills, but provides us with another decent sprinter in case sufficiently big points are still to grab on the line for a 79mo/76hil rider.
That gives us 6 76+ hill riders plus Herklotz right below that, so here's hoping we can get most of them into points-paying positions.
Kelderman, Demare and Herklotz all got good motivation boosts from their first race, and this one should suit them even more, regardless of slightly weaker opposition.
All of them as well as Felline and the aforementioned Arndt have above-average to outstanding kicks, so you'd think I'm hoping for everything to stay together.
On the other hand, downhill bunch sprints (especially of the 1.5k nature that I expect here) are always a gamble as bad AI positioning can hardly be made up for even for someone like Demare. I'd prefer having only a couple of them in a smaller group.
Kelderman needs to cover the moves to give us a safe Top 10 result at least, with two additional Top 20s definitely possible as well. That gives us the same expectation as in Badaling, 100 points is what we should aim for.
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