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Tour of Northern Europe Discussion
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| matt17br |
Posted on 27-10-2015 12:41
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Directeur Sportif
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6th edition for the ProTour’s big men favourite race: the unique Tour of Northern Europe. 8 breathless days for the riders, who will wake up in a different country almost every day.
The race will kick off in Belfast, Northern Ireland, with a Team Time Trial. They will head towards Dublin the next day for one of the 3 occasions for the pure sprinters. Then they will have to face some flights that will take them from Dublin to Belgium and the next day a cobbles-heavy stage will be raced. Some of the riders know what we’re talking about, as some of the cobbled sectors are usually included in the “Hell of the North”.
The next stage could well be a short Ardennes classic: 170 kms from Geleen, Netherlands to Flémalle, Belgium. Another long transfer will take them to s’Hertogenbosch, Netherlands, for the 30 kilometers-long Individual Time Trial.
The last – long - transfers will take them to Denmark first, for the second sprinters stage, and to the cold Norway, where they’ll spend 2 nervous days for various reasons. In fact, the  GC-deciding stage is Stage 7, raced in the beautiful Fjords, a zone which is also full of steep hills. To top it off, Stage 8, the last chance for the sprinters, will also decide who is going to carry home the  Green and  Polka Dot jerseys.
The route, besides being particularly challenging under so many points of view, is also demanding under a psychological point of view. As we said, the riders will have to race in 7 different countries, which is something that doesn’t happen in any other race. Moreover, it’s hard to find a true big favourite here, someone who can handle equally well Cobbles, Côtes, Longer Hills and Time Trials.
Nonetheless,  Fabian Cancellara is probably the best suited to this race, having won it 2 times before, last year and in 2011. ‘Spartacus’ is one of the best cobblers and time trialists around, but doesn’t climb equally well.
The startlist is full of awesome cyclists, top representatives of their respective specialities. Let’s take a look at who we may have to watch out for in each terrain.
| Sprinters | SPR | ACC | FLA | | Time Trialists | TTR | FLA | RES |  Lo Cicero | 84 | 78 | 72 | |  Fiedler | 83 | 79 | 76 |  Degenkolb | 83 | 81 | 76 | |  Coppel | 83 | 77 | 78 | | Mohs | 83 | 82 | 75 | | Cancellara | 81 | 82 | 74 |  Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 74 | |  Ford | 81 | 63 | 64 |  Guarnieri | 82 | 81 | 76 | |  Kittel | 81 | 75 | 70 |  Kristoff | 81 | 79 | 75 | | Durbridge | 81 | 73 | 74 |  Roelandts | 81 | 80 | 75 | |  Yatsevich | 80 | 70 | 81 |  Maksimov | 81 | 84 | 72 | |  Zmorka | 80 | 72 | 73 |  Kennaugh | 81 | 81 | 77 | | Viennet | 80 | 72 | 75 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | 74 | | Ignatiev | 80 | 80 | 74 | | Holloway | 80 | 82 | 78 | |  Sergent | 80 | 79 | 74 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Cobblers | COB | FLA | RES | | Punchers | HIL | STA | RES | | Burghardt | 84 | 79 | 76 | | Ginanni | 83 | 78 | 78 | | Blythe | 82 | 76 | 71 | |  Claeys | 83 | 74 | 68 | | Cancellara | 82 | 82 | 74 | | Gastauer | 82 | 78 | 70 |  Vanspeybrouck | 82 | 76 | 71 | |  Schumacher | 81 | 78 | 73 | | Zepuntke | 81 | 72 | 72 | | Bobridge | 80 | 74 | 74 |  Senechal | 80 | 73 | 72 | | Gautier | 80 | 76 | 72 | | Kamyshev | 80 | 75 | 73 | |  Zaini | 80 | 74 | 65 | | Nolf | 80 | 74 | 72 | | Gilbert | 79 | 79 | 75 | | Franzoi | 80 | 76 | 70 | | Bilbao | 79 | 77 | 71 |  Teunissen | 79 | 74 | 71 | | Lutsenko | 78 | 74 | 72 |  Gusev | 79 | 77 | 78 | | Caruso | 78 | 76 | 71 |
No Swift, no Bewley here; possible chance for Pokerstars.com's duo to prove themselves. In fact Degenkolb and Mohs can be considered the best sprinters in the field. It's hard to predict who will be the leader between the two as we'll probably only find it out when the sprint trains are formed. Lo Cicero could get into the contention for a stage win but that will only happen if he decides to actually sprint for once. Other names like Guarnieri, Roelandts and Kennaugh shouldn't be forgotten either, considering how open and 'random' some sprints have been thus far.
With regard to the time trialists, most of the top names are taking part: Coppel, GC winner in 2013, and Fiedler, who this year is riding in a PCT team, are the biggest names here. Always beware of a rider like Cancellara though: the Swiss Machine proved to have an astounding feeling with this race, having won at least a stage each time he took part.
As for the cobblers, we should always consider Burghardt as the biggest threat. Even though the German has had an unfortunate season so far, he proved his talent so many times in the past. Cancellara on the other hand has been only behind this season's dominator Bewley in a few occasions so he should be considered just as strong. Cobbles are unpredictable though, so other second-tier riders like Blythe, Vanspeybrouck and one of the GC favourites Gusev could pull off a surprising result.
Pokerstars.com have another potential top points scorer in Ginanni. The Italian puncher, aided by the absence of the usual suspects, is by far the best bet for the 2 hilly stages. Riders like Claeys and
Gastauer on a good day could bring on an interesting battle though and shouldn't be discounted. Also make sure you don't underestimate Schumacher and Gilbert. The two of them are considered as some of the riders to watch out for the GC and this could represent an interesting motivation boost. Below you can find an outlook on the riders who should do well here:
| All-Rounders | COB | TTR | HIL | TTT | TLS | | Fabian Cancellara | 82 | 81 | 70 | 70 | 303 | | Stefan Schumacher | 68 | 74 | 81 | 73 | 296 | | Vladimir Gusev | 79 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 296 | | Philippe Gilbert | 71 | 71 | 79 | 71 | 292 | | Giovanni Visconti | 73 | 70 | 76 | 73 | 292 | | Roger Kluge | 77 | 74 | 68 | 71 | 290 | | Steven Kruijswijk | 74 | 72 | 72 | 71 | 289 |  Joost Posthuma | 69 | 77 | 71 | 70 | 287 | | Pit Schlechter | 75 | 67 | 72 | 72 | 286 | | Ricardo Van der Velde | 73 | 70 | 72 | 70 | 285 | | Enrico Franzoi | 80 | 70 | 67 | 67 | 284 | | Zdenek Stybar | 73 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 282 | | Alexander Kristoff | 78 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 282 | | Thomas De Gendt | 67 | 76 | 70 | 68 | 281 | | Vegard Breen | 75 | 68 | 70 | 68 | 281 |
As we said, Cancellara stands out as the clear favourite thanks to his ability of being one of the best cobblers and time-trialists at the same time. It's not easy to look any further than him for this race, but the ball is round, and he'll still have a hard time defeating his most fierce opponents.
Just behind him, we can find a really strong rider like Schumacher. The German can also count on one of the best TTT teams around. Gusev is also one of the most solid riders around, and proved it winning the opening edition in the year 2010, even without winning a single stage.
Gilbert won the opening stage in 2012, but wasn't strong enough to keep it up until the last stage. In the last two years he also came 5th and 4th and he could now look to improve his performances.
On the other hand, it will be a debut for Visconti, who can not count on any really strong points but doesn't have any weak ones either. OZ brought one of the strongest teams to support him, if he will be the captain, considering the variety of alternatives the Australian-based team can opt for.
There are many other all-round riders who could grab the win in a race like this. Some of them rely on a bigger ace in the hole but can defend themselves on the other terrains, like Kluge, others will just try to be as constant as possible, and an example is Kruijswijk. We only know that all of them will try their best to provide some great action.
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| roturn |
Posted on 27-10-2015 12:44
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A pity that I am not racing here as Boom is the perfect allrounder for that race as also proven last season.
Definitely one of my favourite races of the season as it is hard to predict the winner. |
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 27-10-2015 12:47
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World Champion
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Oh gawd.... Cicero will fail so badly I can feel it.
Great preview Matt, aside painful Cicero fails hoefully we got into some breaks otherwise this isn't looking to pretty.
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| Heine |
Posted on 27-10-2015 12:52
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Hoping for some good results from Zepuntke and Claeys. Will be interesting to see what they can do here.
As usual I feel this is Spartacus's race to loose, will be interesting to see who can challenge him. Without Bewley we might even have some open Cobble/flat stages
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| beagle |
Posted on 27-10-2015 13:08
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No Bewley, no Swift, no Van Stayen - with possible train Mohs/Degenkolb/Kluge I smell great chance to shine on flat terrain! However, sprinter field including Lo Cicero, Kenaugh, Roelandts, Guarnieri,Holloway etc. is still great competition.
Also Ginanni could grab stage win in one of hilly stages.
I´m really looking forward to this race for a long time, hopefully it won´t turn out into nightmare 
Great preview matt! 
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| Smowz |
Posted on 27-10-2015 13:14
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Team Leader
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Sorta not really convinced this will be Fab's race. Sure he should do well on cobbles and in the ITT but you feel as if the hills will lead to some decisive gaps with breakaway maybe more likely on the cobbled stuff.
Amazing previes I have to say.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 27-10-2015 13:28
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World Champion
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Ignatiev not mentioned in the whole text (which is btw. super awesome in its detail), while he will win the GC, just wait for it. 
Nah, he is really poor on the cobbles,but apart from that he is clearly best all arounder, so maybe if cobbles are ridden defensively, who knows. But i will be happy with good stage results, as we have bunch of stage hunters almost for every stage here (Ignatiev,Zmorka, Nolf, Grosu). So stage win can be possible and if not, at least we could enjoy some nice and unpredictable racing. Good luck to all!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 16:18
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| SotD |
Posted on 27-10-2015 13:44
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Very nice preview. This is a race I fear quite a lot, because it is so unpredictable. Normally I would look forward to the race, but being so close in the top 3, I just want to get past this race without losing ground to the others.
I suspect that Vesuvio will be moving further ahead here with some decent riders on all terrains - Even Schlecther has outscored my cobblers previously.
I hope that I can score a bit higher than Becherovka here, eventhough that might be the exact opposite.
No big sprinters from either team means that breakaways could be the key. I hope Tom David can go into breaks as he should be OK as an alrounder.
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| knockout |
Posted on 27-10-2015 14:17
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Grand Tour Champion
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Awesome preview!
I like this race. Nearly impossible to predict and with very different profiles over the days. One of my favourite races in PT!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 27-10-2015 14:25
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Usually a quiet race for Vesuvio, unless I bring Swift, and this year I haven't.
Schlechter may fare well in the all-round statistics, but that may depend on him going in the breakaway on the cobbled stage as he did in Omloop - I wouldnt expect the AI to let him ride for himself otherwise, and be well positioned - rather than at the back, protecting Van der Lijke or someone else. Gastauer could get some nice stage results, or the breakaway could win those stages instead.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 27-10-2015 14:29
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World Champion
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Really enjoyed the preview!
Hopefully Franzoi can pull off a few decent results, but Im not holding my breath.
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| ember |
Posted on 27-10-2015 15:29
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This is a gem of a race, and definitely a very nice preview, matt17br.
We've got no overall ambitions, for that we will loose too much in the TTT. Hopefully Kristoff can grab some stage podiums, and then I'm dreaming of winning that final stage in Kristiansand, but it looks difficult as he's a significant weaker sprinter compared to the best.
Other than that, fingers will be crossed for joining the breakaways. Any rider except Gjølberg and Lund in a breakaway, and I feel we should have a decent chance at stage glory, but as always that's a lottery. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 27-10-2015 16:05
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
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Fascinating tour; will be following this. Also great preview!
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| fintas |
Posted on 27-10-2015 16:45
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2602
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Really nice preview matt17br...
It's been a while since the last race of my team, so I am eager to return to competition.
As is obvious, the team has no ambitions in the general classification, but with Fiedler the victory in the initial stage is possible as well as on a good day Kupfernagel is able to be in the fight for a stage win. I also hope that the team try to at least be present in the breaks
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| Roman |
Posted on 27-10-2015 18:45
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Really enjoyable preview!
This race is going to be an interesting one. No Bewley means Sergent is likely going to be a team leader, but I have some decent hopes for a good GC result for Stybar and Polnicky - if they can survive hilly stages in the main peloton, cobble stage could really help them to achieve a top 30 result.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 27-10-2015 19:26
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Amazing preview matt 
This race looks really interesting, some amazing changes in profile make it really open. I'm picking Visconti for the win, but I don't know why.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 27-10-2015 19:38
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Dunno the exact TTT stats of all teams, but I want to win this opener here so hard! No sprinter, but Burghardt/Visconti or Bobridge definitely can do some damage here. Would be disappointing to not come away with a notable result and some solid points here. There's no excuses, imo, as we brought a a well rounded team for this.
Thanks for the detailed preview!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 27-10-2015 20:29
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tsmoha wrote:
Dunno the exact TTT stats of all teams, but I want to win this opener here so hard! No sprinter, but Burghardt/Visconti or Bobridge definitely can do some damage here. Would be disappointing to not come away with a notable result and some solid points here. There's no excuses, imo, as we brought a a well rounded team for this.
Thanks for the detailed preview!
I actually also made a TTT overview but didnt post it because I thought the preview would get too damn lomg then!
There it is:
| Team | TTT Score | TTT *s | | Metinvest | 74 | ***** | | OZ | 73 | ***** | | Swisscom | 73 | ***** | | Festina | 72 | **** | | Vesuvio | 72 | **** | | Tinkoff | 72 | **** | | Pokerstars.com | 71 | **** | | Bacardi | 71 | **** | | Venchi | 71 | **** | | Orange | 71 | **** | | Pendleton's | 71 | **** | | Red Bull | 70 | *** | | Project 1t4i | 70 | *** | | Becherovka | 70 | *** | | Karcher | 70 | *** | | Bouygues | 69 | ** | | Good Energy | 69 | ** | | Team BPost | 68 | ** | | Aker | 68 | ** | | Quickstep | 68 | ** | | Ayubowan | 68 | ** | | Meiji | 67 | * | | Movistar | 67 | * | | Volkswagen | 67 | * |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 27-10-2015 20:38
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Now... I know my luck and the top-favorites (Metinvest) will actually win this
Thanks for the maths and posting!
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| Crommy |
Posted on 27-10-2015 20:40
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I'm expecting Cancellara to win, and I'd like to see our ex-rider win.
All I'd like to see from Jurgen Roelandts is for him to not revert, by actually continuing to compete in the sprints
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Tour of Northern Europe 
