Ahead of the final day of the season, CT teams only participated in stage races this month. One each in C2, C1 and HC - with the latter offering just two spots in Japan.
The Tour of Japan in fact was the first race of the month, with Adidas and Babymetal being the lucky ones to get a ticket (the latter probably having given top priority to their home race).
And the local team did a pretty good job, with Babymetal scoring 33 points. More than half of them - 17, to be precise - were scored by Japanese flat beast Arashiro, being rather unlucky to finish 4th in the two successful breakaway stages. At least he was rewarded with a shared 3rd place in the points standings. Verschaeve and Niu both finished in the Top 50 (with the former taking 7th in U25), and Muhammad and Riabushenko both got a scoring stage result (6th and 7th respectively).
Adidas were less successful, with Frame getting all of their 4 points right on day 1, in the prologue.
And then, the last C2 stage race of the year, the Herald Sun Tour! Four days for the sprinters, one for the TTers - who were expected to dominate the GC subsequently. This was indeed the case - but the top TTers actually didn't come out on top of the GC, with one rather surprising rider having an awesome day on the decisive stage.
However, the top scoring team wasn't the GC winner's. They were expected to win the GC - or even take a 1-2 - but "only" could get 2nd and 9th. "They" obviously are Team Würth! Top 10 GC results by Predatsch (2nd) and Dumoulin (9th), plus a stage win (and 3rd in points) by Minali. Würth also finished 2nd in team standings, and Vangheluwe was 3rd among the U25 riders - 128 points for the Germans!
The 2nd highest amount of points doesn't go to the GC winner's team, either - but to the team of the best sprinter! Liepins won two stages and got a 2nd place, easily winning the points jersey. Crabbe's other relatively big scorer was Kireva, taking a rather surprising 7th place in GC. Overall, it's 107 points for the division leaders, who almost certainly will end up being division winners.
Because despite winning the GC, JEWA couldn't reduce the gap to Crabbe, "only" scoring 98 points (or 9 less than CCC). Malori rather surprisingly won the decisive ITT stage and the GC, but with Selig being the only other contributor (8th on stage 1, 4th on stage 5), they still missed out on getting the highscore in New Zealand. A great (and much better than expected) outcome nonetheless!
The C1 Euskal Bizikleta was the year's final stage race. And who would have thought that this race for punchy sprinters would actually yield another huge result for CT!
But it did - and one of the top punchy sprinters out there (or sprinting puncheurs?) won this race! Podium Ambition have struggled quite a lot during the first half of the season - but now Lagane seems to have found his best legs, coming out on top of the Euskal GC! A 3rd place on stage 3 got him the necessary bonus seconds, with none of the next 11 riders gaining any - it meant the GC (and U25) win for the Mauritian! Podium Ambition also had Cole in the KoM jersey for one day (tied for 2nd in the end), and the team scored a huge amount of 143 points - being the highest scoring team in the race!
The other teams couldn't match this huge result, with the 2nd best scoring CT team getting 101 points less. So that's 42 points - for Ekoi! The Frenchies are continuing their strong end-of-the-year push, mainly thanks to another great APP performance. 6th on the final day, 7th in GC. 40 points for the French star rider, with Vauquelin and Karatsivis adding a U25 point each.
Sadly for Ekoi, the 3rd best score went to Tafjord - another team fighting for promotion, hence the gap couldn't be reduced by a lot. In fact, the Norwegians scored 37 points - all of them scored by Dyrnes for his 4th place on day 4, and - more importantly - 8th place in GC.
Now, to the current October standings. Whereas one great race obviously has a big impact with just three races available, two strong races are almost unbeatable. And with Podium Ambition doing a decent enough job in New Zealand, and an outstanding job in Spain, they currently top the standings by a mile - 214 points for the Caribbeans. And it's hard to see them missing out on winning the month - it would take more than just a Zürich win for the others to pass them. And Podium Ambition do have a big time favourite in Switzerland as well...
After their great Sun Tour, Würth are 2nd with the 128 they scored there. That's an 86 points gap - as I said, "just" winning in Zürich won't bring them to the top. But they're looking to be well set for a final push for the Top 10.
However, Würth's main worry will be that the Turtles are sitting just 9 points behind this month, having done well in New Zealand, too, and also did a decent job in Euskal. The same holds for JEWA, who even won the Sun Tour, but without much depth - these two teams are tied for 3rd, with 119 points.
But despite JEWA doing well, Crabbe don't really need to worry about the CT title anymore, given that they had a great Sun Tour as well, losing just 21 points of their big advantage. 107 points for the Belgians, rounding off the current Top 5 - and being the final team above 100 points.
It's actually already a 30 points gap down to 6th (more than between 2nd and 5th), and even though Gjensidige are doing slightly better again than in previous months, they still won't be satisfied. Especially Eiking's big blunder in Euskal must hurt them, after they scored surprisingly well in Sun Tour despite leaving two of the division's top TTers at home. 76 points for the Norwegians.
Which is 5 more than Babymetal, who are really having a strong couple of months to end the season on a high note. Sun Tour wasn't great for them, but being the best CT team in their home tour must feel great.
8th and 9th are just 1 point apart from each other, with Adidas getting the upper hand. A decent Sun Tour plus a handful points from Japan has them at 50 points currently - one more than Ekoi, the 2nd best CT team in Euskal. Is this enough for a last-day promotion push?
Rounding off the Top 10 are Simba, totalling 39 points - narrowly ahead of Tafjord (37) and Air New Zealand (34). Not great news for the Norwegians in particular, we'll see what that means for their promotion hopes.
It's been an even worse month so far for Stela-Vita with only 22 points, but the Albanians had a solid advantage post-September. For Strava, on the other hand - getting only 12 points - it might be tough now to hold onto their Top 5 spot.
Promotion will be even more difficult now for Manada, who did even worse - just 6 points for them in Sun Tour. Just like Hilcona, but the Liechtensteiners probably won't care as much.
The final two teams are Bordeaux and Saeco, both at five points - with Mercatone being defunct for a long time now, and Caja having already spent all their RDs by the end of September, hence being logical zero-pointers.
The moment you've all been waiting for - at least those teams who are (or were?) still fighting for some sort of goals. One day of racing to go - one or two races for most teams, with only Caja and Mercatone not racing tomorrow.
One thing is sure by now - Crabbe will bounce right back to PCT after one year in CT! They can't be fully sure of winning the title, as some teams racing in Emilia could theoretically pass them with some insane depth results - but let's be honest, this won't happen, and the Crabpack will be Jura's successors as CT winners! 1,654 points scored so far means a solid cushion to 2nd place.
In 2nd place, we still have Stela-Vita, totalling 1,400 points. Promotion should be a formality for them as well, and probably even mathematically secure. However, they could lose 2nd place on the very last day, given that JEWA trail by just 11 points - and they have two races left, compared to Stela-Vita who only race in Zürich.
The podium spots look to be gone, with the next team being 81 points down (and not racing in Emilia). But Podium Ambition have just shown that they can do amazing things if everything falls into place - it would take a really big team result to realize their Podium Ambitions, though. However, I'm sure they couldn't care much less, given their 160 points gap down to 6th place...
Tafjord aren't having a great month of October so far, but given that they had a decent gap post-September, and their closest rivals did even worse, it's actually still looking good for them. With 1,202 points, they're 57 points ahead of the non-promotion zone - and should have some good chances of doing well in Zürich anyway.
But we won't considered the promotion fight to be over yet, even though it would take something really special for the next couple of teams. And with disband promotions always being a possibility, every spot gained or lost could be decisive.
In 6th place, we currently have Strava, who have indeed dropped out of the Top 5. With 1,145 points, they're only 20 points clear of Ekoi, who moved up another spot - and have an armada of puncheurs in Zürich to get even higher up.
On the other hand, Manada are just another 15 points down, and should also have a shot at doing well in Zürich, with KHJ being among the best puncheurs of the division. But direct promotion still looks out of reach for them, with a 92 points gap.
We're down to 9th place, and the biggest disappointemnt of the year. Gjensidige never really got going, having bad luck over and over again, and maybe some subpar planning choices as well. With 1,089 points, they're more than 100 points behind the Top 5. However, with a big result in Emilia, they could still get back up - but with their top puncheur racing in Zürich, it's hard to see them get huge points from Italy. We'll see...
The final team above 1,000 points are the Turtles, totalling 1,003. They hold onto their 10th place - and are looking pretty good to still hold that 10th place after the final day of the year.
Würth in 11th are currently sitting at 915 points, 88 behind the Top 10, which is a big gap to close. Bordeaux are another 15 points down - totalling 900 - but they do race in Emilia as well, and they won in Zürich last year...
Simba in 13th place are pretty lonely - 202 points behind 12th, 134 ahead of 14th. It's pretty unlikely that they'll move from this spot, which probably is neither great nor awesome for a new team.
Hilcona in 14th is the next new team, with the Liechtensteiners scoring 664 points so far. They're in the same situation as Simba, far ahead from either ranking neighbour.
Saeco, holding the final Top 15 spot, are 148 points behind Hilcona, and even with their home race in Emilia it's hard to see them score as much. On the other hand, Babymetal are just 23 points behind, and currently have a pretty good form. Moving up could be possible for them - but it won't be easy.
Caja definitely won't be moving up, having finished their season already. Their 423 points now are the target for both Adidas and Air New Zealand in 18th and 19th; the former currently have 387 points, the latter 379 points. These three teams are actually fighting for - or rather against - the "Red Lantern" title, given that Mercatone Uno in 20th place don't really exist anymore.
Well, top 10 definitely out of reach now, as even last season excellent last day didn't give us 100 points.
Still, we'll be at least 3 places higher up, with 300 more points. The goal will be to beat Würth (sorry mate), and have a better balanced team next season for the promotion hunt.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
Stela-Vita weren't active for a while and I start to worry they might not be coming back. Which will be a waste of an opportunity after a strong season. In this case we should perhaps focus our attention towards the battle for 6th where we have 3 teams with 35 points gap
Stela-Vita weren't active for a while and I start to worry they might not be coming back. Which will be a waste of an opportunity after a strong season. In this case we should perhaps focus our attention towards the battle for 6th where we have 3 teams with 35 points gap
Mantez did comment on the previous CT ranking update to be fair. So I guess Stela-Vita will be back.
In general, I clearly prefer active managers being successful rather than inactive ones, but that's not how the game works
Stela-Vita weren't active for a while and I start to worry they might not be coming back. Which will be a waste of an opportunity after a strong season. In this case we should perhaps focus our attention towards the battle for 6th where we have 3 teams with 35 points gap
Mantez is an active military member and away for long periods of time throughout the year. He's here, just not all the time.
First of all thanks to Fabi for all the tremendous work you're putting in the ranking updates, especially this one just puts up the tension for the final race(s)!
I'd say the top 5 are safe for promotion, but 6th to 9th place could be really close. And with us right within there we could still finish in any of those positions, especially with all four teams having a good option for Zuri. With some disbands maybe coming it will be crucial to finish as high as possible. But I'll clearly be relieved when this part of the year is over, gladly I haven't been in position to consider promotion most of the season as my nerves would be done by now
So best of luck to all of you and let's hope for some thrilling races!
Great work as allways Fab, kudos.
Our blunder of a season continues. Hopefully we can do something in the last races and create some magic. I had planned on promotion, which was my first mistake! haha
Not jinxing myself before the final race. I'm still hurting over the crazy struggles we had from January to March and the times we lost Top10's on the final stage and whatever Herald was. Why did i commit to such a stupid bloody project?
Cool, I take 6th or 7th for an okay-ish little effort season. Hopefully not promoting as I don't have the time to scout the FA market at all these days. Thanks for the update again, much appreciated
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