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Amstel Gold Race Discussion
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 29-12-2022 21:26
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 [PT] Amstel Gold Race
The route and the profile of the race didn’t change much over the years. The more classical up-hill finish in Valkenburg is used this year like in the recent editions. In general the route exploits all of the small hills between the cities of Maastricht and Valkenburg in the southernmost Dutch province of Limburg.
Being one third of the legendary Ardennes triple the Amstel Gold Race is of course part of the PT and one of the most prestigious classics apart from the Monuments of cycling. It’s been part of the Man-Game since the dawn of time and so the list of previous winners is illustrious, including some of the greatest puncheurs of the millennium.
The sole record winner is  Simone Ponzi with four wins out of the five years from 2015 to 2019. He is indeed here to add a fifth win to his palmarès, though not being one of the top favourites any more. He is accompanied by former winners  Alexey Lutsenko, Peter Sagan and defending champion  Sean De Bie who are all among the race favourites as well.
Previous winners:
Spoiler
| Year | Winner | | | | | | | | | | 2021 | Sean De Bie (Aegon - Peroni) | | 2020 | Alexey Lutsenko (King Power) | | | | | | | | | 2019 | Simone Ponzi (Fablok - Bank BGZ) | | | | | | | | | 2018 | Simone Ponzi (Hugo Boss) | | | | | | | | 2017 | Peter Sagan (Moser - Sygic) | | | | | | | | | 2016 | Simone Ponzi (Kenya Airways - Dimension Data) | | | | | | | 2015 | Simone Ponzi (Good Energy) | | | | | | | | | 2014 | Yuri Trofimov (Tinkoff Credit Systems Bank) | | | | | | | | 2013 | Edvald Boasson Hagen (Aker - MOT) | | | | | | | | | 2012 | Philippe Gilbert (Pendleton’s Twicer) | | | | | 2011 | Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team B&O) | | | | | | | | | 2010 | Frank Schleck (Accumalux-Huez) | | | | | | | | | 2009 | Michael Boogerd (Philips - Hummel) | | | | | | | | 2008 | Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team) | | | | | 2007 | Filippo Pozzato (AG2R Prevoyance) | | | | |
2021 results:
Spoiler
| 1 | Sean De Bie | Aegon - Peroni | 6h10'20 | | 2 | Alexey Lutsenko | Isostar - Specialized | s.t. | | 3 | Miguel Angel Lopez | Evonik - ELKO | s.t. | | 4 | Matej Mohoric | King Power | s.t. | | 5 | Peter Sagan | Moser - Sygic | s.t. | | 6 | Bruno Borges | Duolingo | s.t. | | 7 | Simon Yates | Zwift Pro Cycling | s.t. | | 8 | Dmitry Trakhov | Team Tinkoff | s.t. | | 9 | Petr Vakoc | ISA - Hexacta | s.t. | | 10 | Tiesj Benoot | Huski Chocolate | s.t. |
The assembled PT teams are accompanied by PCT teams  Amaysim Cervélo and  Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team. As there are no clashing races relevant to those teams, we will see the best puncheurs of the world fighting each other for the win.
Puncheurs:
As the race was nearly always decided at the short final climb, there’s no need to consider anyone as a favourite who’s not a top puncheur.
The best bets alongside former winners De Bie, Lutsenko and Sagan are probably  Lopez,  Mohoric and  Skujins.
But to predict the winner is tough, as there are many other good puncheurs at the start and - apart from daily form - much will be depend from who will suffer the least over the day, who will make or follow the right move in the final kilometers, how the riders are positioned in the final climb and who will have the best timing in his uphill sprint.
| | MO | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | | | De Bie | Sean | 71 | 84 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 75 | Aegon - Peroni | | Lopez | Miguel Angel | 79 | 84 | 76 | 74 | 66 | 78 | Evonik - ELKO | | Mohoric | Matej | 71 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 67 | 77 | Aker - MOT | | Lutsenko | Alexey | 73 | 83 | 76 | 73 | 72 | 81 | Gazelle | | Sagan | Peter | 74 | 83 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 76 | Moser - Sygic | | Skujins | Toms | 70 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 76 | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | McCarthy | Jay | 67 | 82 | 80 | 75 | 65 | 74 | Amaysim Cervélo |  Bobridge | Jack | 68 | 82 | 73 | 73 | 68 | 79 | Duolingo |  Gidich | Yevgeniy | 76 | 82 | 78 | 77 | 62 | 75 | King Power |  Kelderman | Wilco | 71 | 82 | 80 | 75 | 67 | 72 | Los Pollos Hermanos |  Koretzky | Clement | 71 | 81 | 77 | 70 | 71 | 79 | ELCO - ABEA |  Vakoc | Petr | 71 | 81 | 75 | 71 | 71 | 74 | ISA - Hexacta |  Kwiatkowski | Michal | 78 | 81 | 74 | 76 | 67 | 75 | MOL Cycling Team |  Buchmann | Emanuel | 76 | 81 | 73 | 74 | 65 | 73 | Team UBS |  Yates | Simon | 70 | 81 | 77 | 70 | 77 | 80 | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Eiking | Odd Christian | 69 | 80 | 78 | 74 | 68 | 76 | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team |  Formolo | Davide | 79 | 80 | 76 | 76 | 69 | 71 | Huski Chocolate |  Izagirre | Ion | 73 | 80 | 72 | 71 | 59 | 63 | Polar |
Break of the Day:
The best bets for the break of the day. As mentioned above, those riders will probably just get some valuable screen time for their teams and an exclusive “just-for-me” catering from their team cars during the race, but the odds are that they won’t compete for the win. Nonetheless, there is a chance, so here are the breakaway experts of the race:
| | FL | MO | HI | ST | RS | FG | | | Van der Hoorn | Taco | 75 | 60 | 70 | 76 | 69 | 84 | Aegon - Peroni | | Nych | Artem | 78 | 68 | 67 | 75 | 72 | 84 | Polar |  Turgis | Anthony | 73 | 67 | 79 | 76 | 78 | 83 | De Stijl Cycling | | Quita | Ronnilan | 74 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 75 | 83 | King Power | | Lammertink | Maurits | 74 | 68 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 81 | Huski Chocolate |  Smit | Willie | 72 | 69 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 81 | EA Vesuvio | | Vorobev | Anton | 75 | 63 | 65 | 73 | 71 | 81 | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Sirironnachai | Sarawut | 71 | 66 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 80 | King Power |  Antonijevic | Goran | 78 | 61 | 66 | 67 | 74 | 80 | cycleYorkshire | | Gabburo | Davide | 75 | 68 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 79 | Duolingo | | Goh | Choon Huat | 69 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 74 | 79 | Duolingo | | Barthe | Cyril | 73 | 73 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 79 | Polar | | Kasperkiewicz | Przemyslaw | 76 | 66 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 79 | King Power | | Putti | Riccardo | 68 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 71 | 79 | Polar | | Abreu | Jorge | 73 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 71 | 79 | Team UBS | | Bovenhuis | Jasper | 73 | 58 | 71 | 74 | 70 | 79 | Aegon - Peroni |
Honourable Mentions:
We have two poor lonesome cowboys at the start, whose way home is nearly as long as possible: Kiwis Ryan Christensen and Joel Yates. As usual for the honourable mentions most probably both won’t be mentioned any more in the race report whilst doing their duties.
Full start list:
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| tastasol |
Posted on 29-12-2022 22:07
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Classics Specialist
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Any points other than points for finishing will be a bonus, considering how we've done in the hilly classics the last years. So hopefully that and a a presence in the break.
Thanks for the preview! A win for Yates perhaps to come? Could go many ways this.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 29-12-2022 22:46
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No pressure for McCarthy and our team. Would be nice to have another good wildcard result as earlier this year though 
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-12-2022 00:10
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Warmup race for LBL, lets go Lopez, show me that you are in good shape!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 30-12-2022 00:33
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ŅŠ time! Nice preview thanks!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 30-12-2022 09:05
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Not sure what to expect from Bobridge, but for once we actually seem to have a decent support squad here. A top10 can be a reasonable goal, I guess.
Thanks for the preview and good luck everyone!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-12-2022 09:48
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Weird feeling to not have any contender for this race. Thought about bringing Gaviria, instead hoping for a breakaway show.
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-12-2022 19:28
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Very cool duo to escape at the front with the past and the present of Aker. Congrats ember!
Not ideal for Evonik but LBL is the Ardennes race i really care about and that should suit us much much better and 6th is okay at least.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 30-12-2022 19:32
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At least we showed our colors in the chase. McCarthy missed the crucial moves and position, too. But of course we don't really care in a race like this 
Thanks for the report!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 16:55
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| ember |
Posted on 30-12-2022 21:29
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That is a huge win!!!
And what a race that was from Mohoric. Very cool to see him being able to make the attack together with Kwiatek stick, as knockout says, that was the current/future and the former Aker getting away on an adventure. And thank you for the congratulation!
Mohoric has been poor up to this point of the season, but this is a massive win. What a way and moment to turn it around.
Thank you for the report, Imladrik. Obviously, you had me on the edge of my chair |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 30-12-2022 23:49
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Madouas would've needed a very good day to make the final selection, it was a decent attempt. Maybe he'll be better next year.
Sucks that a team full of decent climber-puncheurs doesn't send anyone in the break.
Congrats ember! What a win, lovely to see you bringing home the big wins again!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-12-2022 08:15
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Yeah nah none in the top80, you love to see it
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| tastasol |
Posted on 31-12-2022 08:44
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Congrats on a big win, ember! Very much deserved after a lot of almost from Wisniowski this season. Brilliant race by Mohoric.
Not much in it for us, as expected. Happy to see Van Gestel in the break, at least trying something. Thanks for the report!
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| Bikex |
Posted on 31-12-2022 15:04
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That was my worst AGR in the last years I think. I hope Gidich can step it up in the upcoming two races. However, I'm very happy to see Mohoric claim this one. Hopefully he now continues to perform in a way that ember expects from him. Congrats! |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 31-12-2022 19:18
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Very pleased with Bobridge here. Didn't really have much faith in him, but 5th is actually pretty good giving the competition. Congrats on the win ember. Great result from Mohoric!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 01-01-2023 12:19
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First of all thanks for the preview the kandesbunzler and thanks for the once again quality report from Imladrik.
Seems like the race itself was rather closed. Not having the team work a lot was considered to be quite positive, as that would give Kelderman some more gunpower in the end, but (PT) classics just don't seem to be his thing, with a very anonymous sixteenth place in the end. Congratulations to ember on a great win!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-01-2023 22:20
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Not sure about those tactics with Gerts wasting energy for nothing. Could have been 2 riders in the top 20, which would have made up for Formolo missing the top 10.
We are Dutch, by the way, not Swiss
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 01-01-2023 22:23
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I was amused by that sentence as well I guess people think that everything with "Chocolate" in its name must be Swiss
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 03-01-2023 09:48
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Seems like I see Swiss everywhere. To be fair, at least now I identify your jersey rather than looking for the Jumbo-Visma one. I'll try to learn everything on the teams participating for the Vuelta.
Thanks to everyone for the praises on the report(s), and thank you kandesbunzler26 for a very interesting preview, even though it puts some pressure for the report |
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-01-2023 10:55
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Koretzky for some reason really does not like the Amstel Gold Race. He has messed up here so so often, and given how he regularly performe elsewhere I can't really understand the reason for it. Let's hope for better things in Fleche and LBL. We kinda need to get back on track after a run of underperformance.
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