This thread will be used to post and discuss Season and Monthly Previews, just like last season. The monthly rankings will be posted in a separate thread.
First up, it's time for the Season Previews. Feel free to post any WT and/or CT previews that you may have or intend to come up with in this thread.
Based on a points system there will be a small amount of money awarded for the next season. A maximum of 10 points can be reached. One point will give a budget bonus of 20 in the next season. Each update in the teams thread will give a point. There won't be long essays required, a short update with a few sentences containing the latest results, the upcoming races, a new signed rider or anything noteworthy would be enough. Also considered for this will be posts in this Previews&Statistics thread. A season preview can even give several points: Detailed Season Preview (4 pts), Numbers based Preview (3 pts) You can also look at the monthly previews done by dominox in the 2018 teams thread, these would be exactly what we are looking for.
An unprecedented number of U23 teams have been registered this year, limiting the number of race days they can spend in U23 races for the first time. And thanks to a new rule allowing two riders per team with an AVG over 72.0 we now have some stronger riders than ever before. Here are the best riders for each main stat.
MON
AVG
FL
MO
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Lecomte
Christian
73.5
66
74
73
64
65
57
63
71
74
69
71
68
69
Zappino
Stefano
73.4
69
74
73
68
71
58
60
71
74
68
73
69
71
Ortega
Alex
73.1
65
74
73
65
64
58
67
68
63
70
70
69
73
Smith
James
72.9
66
74
72
66
67
58
62
69
69
68
70
69
73
Jansen
Bailey
72.6
62
73
71
57
62
56
58
71
79
71
62
59
63
Urízar
Ernesto
72,0
62
73
70
58
61
55
62
69
74
70
69
66
69
Janssen
Andy
72,0
63
73
70
59
61
55
62
70
67
67
69
68
71
Holler
Karl
71.8
63
73
70
64
67
55
63
68
63
68
71
67
69
Quituera
Beñat
71.8
66
73
71
69
69
55
60
66
71
71
71
67
69
Climbing: Islandsbanki had to offer a wage of 505 to secure the signature of one of three riders with the new U23 max AVG 73.5, Christian Lecomte. His TT is lacking, but that is true of all riders who made the list. Four have MO 74, six MO 73. Not listed are the 14 riders with MO 72, some can be found in the HIL and TT lists, possibly the most notable riders who didn't make the lists are Jackie Hodge and Gilberto Jimenez.
HIL
AVG
FL
MO
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Wongsa
Chinnawat
73.5
70
66
74
63
66
64
62
72
69
76
71
70
70
Sauvaget
Lionel
73.5
72
65
73
64
68
65
64
69
67
73
74
69
71
Lecomte
Christian
73.5
66
74
73
64
65
57
63
71
74
69
71
68
69
Zappino
Stefano
73.4
69
74
73
68
71
58
60
71
74
68
73
69
71
Diederich
Florian
73.2
74
64
73
58
65
68
63
69
79
64
73
72
69
Ortega
Alex
73.1
65
74
73
65
64
58
67
68
63
70
70
69
73
Charton
Yves
72.9
69
63
73
56
61
56
68
72
63
71
71
69
68
Ibraev
Carl
72.7
68
72
73
63
62
57
61
71
77
77
68
69
69
Susilo
Aiman
72.6
69
66
73
61
64
57
62
72
65
71
70
68
68
Vanden Boer
Henk
72.2
71
59
73
65
65
69
71
71
66
66
69
67
67
Brundby
Jacob
71.8
62
72
73
62
60
60
61
69
75
65
66
66
68
Hills: Chinnawat Wongsa is the first U23 with HIL 74, he's part of the AVG 73.5 club together with Lionel Sauvaget and Lecomte. Ten riders have HIL 73. Vanden Boer looks especially interesting with his SPR 71, he's also the best on cobblestones in this list. 13 riders have HIL 72, like climbing it is a crowded field.
COB
AVG
FL
MO
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Astier
Loïc
73,0
72
59
72
68
67
74
64
72
69
67
71
72
70
Berg
Lutz
72.2
72
59
68
65
63
73
69
69
70
69
71
69
69
Hochart
Sébastien
71.7
71
61
64
63
63
73
68
70
63
72
69
68
72
Kolodziejski
Zdzislaw
71.7
72
63
71
61
65
72
67
70
71
63
71
71
70
Gorriarán
Rubén
71,0
72
64
64
61
62
72
67
68
73
68
68
69
67
Butenko
Vsevolod
72.1
71
69
71
65
64
71
69
70
67
68
73
68
70
Yamazaki
Susumu
70.2
68
58
65
65
66
71
67
66
68
62
71
69
67
Vierek
Dennis
69.9
69
57
66
62
64
71
64
64
64
59
68
65
66
Detenyshev
Daniil
69.9
72
58
60
60
63
71
69
69
63
66
65
65
62
Nitsesky
Dinar
69.7
69
58
66
62
60
71
60
63
64
57
67
66
65
Jensen
Daniel
69.6
70
59
60
64
62
71
60
60
70
63
65
66
64
Cobblestones: Again, we have a first U23 rider with COB 74, Loic Astier. He's also got HIL 72 and TTR 68 to differentiate himself from the rest, though he is lacking SPR. Two riders have COB 73, Lutz Berg and Sebastien Hochart, two more COB 72 followed by six with COB 71.
TT
AVG
FL
MO
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Koncz
Zoltán
72.6
70
70
69
74
73
58
60
64
71
57
68
69
70
Penot
Alain
73,0
69
72
70
73
72
55
55
65
72
66
70
69
73
Ollero
Germán
72.6
69
72
70
73
73
56
60
65
67
59
71
67
70
Karpati
Viktor
72.5
70
63
66
73
72
68
63
62
73
64
73
72
70
Hamilton
Martin
72.3
70
61
63
73
72
58
64
63
65
66
72
71
68
Bay
Lars
71.9
69
60
64
73
73
58
60
59
66
58
67
68
68
Brouwers
Ulrich
71.2
69
59
63
73
72
63
59
64
72
70
67
66
68
Wright
Jonathan
70.2
68
67
66
73
71
65
63
68
78
72
64
63
64
Ivanov
Rustyam
71.9
70
62
65
72
74
57
61
60
66
68
68
68
68
Richter
Kevin
71.1
69
65
68
72
71
56
58
63
67
64
68
69
69
Sundbaum
Henning
70.9
68
60
62
72
72
65
61
60
67
60
67
67
67
Time Trials: Once again we see a first rider with TTR 74, Zoltan Koncz. He's also a decent stage racer, though that is even more true for Alain Penot and German Ollero. The other riders on the list have to be considered pure time trial specialists.
SPR
AVG
FL
MO
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Carter
Astley
72.6
71
59
61
62
63
59
74
73
68
64
73
68
69
Herder
Marc
72.6
72
66
69
66
67
59
73
74
70
69
71
70
69
Estdahl
Anders
71.9
70
60
64
60
63
60
73
73
67
61
70
67
69
Cruz
Andrés
71.9
70
60
63
61
66
62
73
73
67
66
71
68
68
Wadsworth
Matt
71.9
73
56
68
63
62
63
73
71
71
71
68
63
66
Buron
Augustin
71.9
71
60
62
63
64
59
72
74
63
63
69
66
71
Seegers
Sierk
71.8
72
58
65
62
65
64
72
73
68
66
69
67
69
Espinosa
Miquel
71.4
70
59
64
62
68
59
72
73
68
72
69
67
69
Patrick
José Miguel
70.8
70
56
60
61
60
55
72
71
74
58
67
66
67
Broomhead
Peter
70.5
70
56
62
58
67
64
72
70
62
64
66
63
65
Maini
Antonio
70.5
70
57
64
63
68
57
72
70
63
62
65
64
69
Sprinting: When it comes to sprinting, Astley Carter is the first U23 rider with SPR 74. By AVG Herder matches him, he's certainly a more well-rounded sprinter who has no problems with hilly terrain. Three more riders have SPR 73, while six have SPR 72.
Taking a look at the current top nationalities away from the teams to help track national development a bit. Hope you enjoy it.
WT Teams
CT Teams
Dev Team
Points (19-20)
Pts. 20 to 19
Total
GT
Mon
WC
1
2
3
16014
(+782)
7
1
3
3
3
-
1
14026
(-1780)
7
4
1
2
3
-
2
11798
(-480)
7
0
2
5
1
-
1
11374
(-2837)
6
3
1
2
1
-
1
10005
(-1793)
5
4
1
0
1
2
2
9201
(+307)
13
7
3
3
2
1
3
8967
(-396)
11
0
10
1
-
1
1
8731
(+2271)
9
1
4
4
-
2
1
7450
(+1289)
1
1
0
0
1
-
-
6764
(-328)
3
0
0
3
1
-
1
6480
(+1647)
2
0
2
0
-
1
-
5817
(-1474)
4
0
1
3
-
-
1
4678
(+1035)
1
0
1
0
-
-
-
3451
(+1043)
1
0
0
1
-
1
-
3370
(+733)
0
0
0
0
-
-
1
3234
(-102)
1
0
1
0
-
-
-
3076
(+738)
1
0
0
1
-
-
-
2973
(-61)
0
0
0
0
1
-
-
2906
(-282)
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
2902
(+75)
3
0
3
0
-
1
1
2612
(-366)
1
0
0
1
-
1
-
2361
(+702)
2
0
1
1
-
-
-
2334
(-328)
1
0
0
1
-
-
-
2268
(+765)
3
0
0
3
-
-
1
1722
(+1652)
0
0
0
0
Germany joins Italy as the prominent WT nation again after the Bosch promotion. Netherlands has gained a new CT after the sponsor loss to Baku, whereas Belgium lost one of theirs too to Algeria but could compensate with Brugse promotion. Disbandment of Sevilla and relegation of Euskadi Santos leaves Liberty as sole Spanish WT team, though strong Iberian presence remains in CT. Neither USA nor Australia have a WT team atm, leaving Team BP as the only anglosaxon one in WT. No nation has more than 3 professional teams.
Spain and Belgium have profited off strong national leaders, collecting Grand Tours respectively monument wins throughout the years and lead the ranking of prestigiou race wins. Tony Martin and Matej Mohoric have collected massively gold medals for their nations Germany and Slovenia, in particular in time trials.
This shows the distribution of the ten best riders per nation. Outliers present in particular in Spain, Belgium, and Colombia. Very wide distribution of quality in Poland and to a lesser extent in Slovenia.
Riders >=75
Talents >=6
Current
Top
Riders
Talents to Watch
Pot
Champ RR
31
18
Bardet
Barguil
Coquard
Crochet
(7)
Barguil
42
17
Aru
Villela
Guardini
Spagnoli
(7)
Felline
24
12
Kittel
Herklotz
Degenkolb
Geissler
(7)
Plarre
17
8
S. Yates
Fenn
Geoghegan Hart
Dibben
(6)
Yates
19
4
Quintana
Betancur
Chamorro
Preciado
(7)
Betancur
22
17
Herrada
Contador
Landa
Pulido
(7)
Contador
33
16
Van Keirsbulck
Vanmarcke
Serry
Provost
(7)
Debusschere
31
14
Van Poppel
Kelderman
Van der Poel
Herder
(7)
Kreder
14
6
Phinney
Boswell
Van Garderen
Crawford
(6)
Hall
7
5
Polanc
Mohoric
Rajsp
Božić
(6)
Per
7
5
Kwiatkowski
Komisarek
Majka
Kolodziejski
(7)
Paterski
15
5
Durbridge
Ewan
Howard
Thompson
(6)
Dennis
11
3
Kristoff
Hoelgaard
Ringheim
Hovland
(6)
Kristoff
6
6
Vorobyev
Tsatevitch
Novikov
Samorukov
(6)
Evtushenko
14
6
Pedersen
Quaade
Rahbek
Krigbaum
(6)
Pedersen
6
3
Lutsenko
Kamyshev
Ayazbayev
Polyakov
(6)
Lutsenko
4
4
Boros
Simek
Hirt
Kolecko
(6)
Dolezel
11
6
Konrad
Haller
Auer
Wagner
(6)
Preidler
4
4
Ludvigsson
Ludvigsson
Ahlstrand
Karlsson
(6)
Ludvigsson
1
1
Sagan
-
-
Petříkov
(7)
Sagan
4
7
Figueirdo
Silvestre
Oliveira
Alves
(6)
Antunes
3
2
Mullen
Bennett
Lavery
McGuinness
(6)
Mullen
3
3
Berhane
Kudus
Teshome
Tesfamariam
(6)
Teklehaimanot
3
3
Engeldinger
Jungels
Peiffer
Diederich
(6)
Peiffer
5
3
Langlois
Boily
Tremblay
Saby
(6)
Andersson
Talents chosen at age 26 or below
Top nations with larger pool of riders unsurprisingly, although Belgium and Netherlands are lower than one might expect based on this stat. Large talent pools in most cycling nations except for Colombia and to a lesser extent Great Britain. Given the south american prominence, new talents may pop up in neighouring nations to dispute Colombia's status as American cycling nation #1, which could be an interesting development to follow.
Short analysis
On the rise: Arguably, France is on the cusp of a golden generation, finally bringing some of their 2nd tier riders of the first five years into the top tier. Germany has had a great medal haul thanks to the classic men and time trialists, but now it will be time for Herklotz to spark the Grand Tour ligt again. The Netherlands and Poland have greatly improved their scoring from 2019 to 2020, and one might expect with their top leaders further improving, they will not slow down and could enter the top 5 soon.
In flux:Italy has lost significant scoring compared to last year and will look to further compensate for the decline of Nibali by scoring with the likes of Colombo, Spagnoli and Pizzi - young riders ready to impress. Spain meanwhile has historically relied on 2 big riders and will hold its breath for Contador to keep on performing, for at least one more year - their big talent pool should eventually allow for more scoring depth again, primarily through climbing. Belgium wants to keep its classics dominance (10 monument wins) whilst also looking for the next Merckx - no one in sight yet and Vanmarcke about to decline. Russia, Norway, Canada and particularly the US have improved their scoring as well, oftentimes due to 1-2 prominent riders,but will have to confirm this trajectory or try to defend their gains.
In turmoil:Great Britain lost a significant amount of points from 2019 to 2020, arguably due to Yates performing on a lower level. It is expected that the scoring will become tougher, as there is no top tier stage racer a la Froome in sight and the hills have becoming fiercely competitive. Australia also lost a large points haul last year despite a high number of quality riders. However, many of them are unsigned, and so the lack of prominent national teams and the missing appetite for Aussie riders may further escalate the low scoring this season. Dire conditions meanwhile in Colombia where the decline of Quintana and soon Betancur will reduce the scoring depth a lot and the current talent pool remains alarmingly low.
very nice analysis, from a new point of view, in this situation maybe Italy will lose some terrain against the other two historical countries (Belgium and France) with just 1 Dev team vs 3 and 3
So after some thoughtful analysis from Ripley and Shonak, here is my highly mechanical prediction. Just uses predicts points based on OVL and adds them up. So no attention is paid to team construction.
Looked at Ripley's post-mortem from last year my approach did ok, I guess, but I offer no guarantees.
WT
1
Grupo Argos - Quala
9,884
2
Italo
9,781
3
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
9,471
4
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
9,017
5
Alitalia
8,757
6
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
8,562
7
Baku Synergy +
8,366
8
Team BP
8,323
9
Liberty Seguros
8,275
10
Deutsche Bahn
7,934
11
Renault Classic
7,829
12
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
7,262
13
Credit Suisse
6,980
14
Brugse Zot - Trek
6,937
15
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
6,895
16
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
6,259
17
Trans Looney Tunes
5,787
18
Bosch Cycling Team
4,869
CT
1
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
4,392
2
Tierra del Fuego
4,376
3
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry
4,106
4
Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm
3,933
5
Santos - Euskadi
3,767
6
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
3,676
7
BNZ Cycling Team
3,617
8
Shell Pro Cycling
3,565
9
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
3,508
10
Millenium - LATAM Airlines
3,438
11
La Vie Claire
3,269
12
EF x Palace - Nippo
3,222
13
DFK Panevėžys
2,980
14
Ziggo
2,938
15
Euskaltel - Elior
2,837
16
ICBC Cycling Team
2,498
17
Cadejo - Bike Xpress
2,324
18
Vegeta Cycling Team
2,088
19
Magnum - Madshus
1,982
20
Proximus Cycling Team
1,541
Grupo Argos once again at the top but it is much closer this time. Last year my approach way underpredicted Liberty Seguros and they look low again so maybe something the formulas don't handle with that team.
In a testament to the lack of improvement at Air Algérie last year's prediction for us was 6,914, this year's almost identical at 6,895, (we got 0.3% worse). Last year my prediction had us too far down the ranking, let's hope that repeats.
Well Ulrich's calculations certainly look promising, but they don't factor the fact that my OVL's are useless when paired with my abysmal planning.
I like Shonak's analysis a lot though. Mission successful for us. Ireland and Canada both saw significant point increases last year thanks to our sponsors. We also have 7/8 top riders from those countries listed (Tremblay being the exception, who remains unsigned). From a roleplay perspective, that's great to see.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
UU's list looks nice for us, but while I think we might get involved in the promotion fight, I doubt we'll finish that high up. With Chamorro, there's only one rider who could potentially score really big points - and then it's all about depth. Which is nice obviously, but doesn't necessarily score that big. We'll see
Colombia really looks shockingly bad in Shonak's analysis. Just four good talents are way too few for a (former) big cycling nation, so they will certainly drop down quite a lot. We'll see if I can make Argentina appear up there in let's say 10 years or so But I guess Venezuela is more likely to show up, if I treat Ollero and some others well...
Though Dibben is hardly a talent to watch, he's 27 and I've already given up on him, he's just an overpaid domestique. But it shows there is a large gap between the few decent Brits and good talents. Only two Brits in the db have pot 7, Simon Yates and the very young Wayne Richards, it'll take many years to develop him. The talent to watch should probably be Adams, COB 76 at 24. But yeah, Britain will drop further in the nations table for years to come.
I already created my WAVG rankings for WT and CT but I'll wait until we have the final db. i'm sure Liberty Seguros will do better than Ulrich's formula suggests and I hope so will Team BP..
Recent years were dominated by the battle of Sagan vs. Van Keirsbulck, with the latter scoring exceptionally well (in particular 2019) but missing out to CarbonSports' and later BP's Sagan. It looks that Van Keirsbulck at least will continue his cobbles world cup dominance, although he also has to deal with a strong inhouse competitor for wins outside the cobbles, namely Van Poppel.
Phinney has impressed in the World Cup when he was allowed to focus on it, such as during his stint at Bunzl or Vittel, even coming close to scoring 1st in the inaugural World Cup campaign. He will also have a good duel in the TT World Cup, where only Malori has achieved more than one overall win yet, the latest being Durbridge. Bardet's dominance in the hills might be shortlived, too, with Villela making a surge and in case Kwiatkowski has a better season. There is also a chance that Yates comes back to his old winnin ways.
Although usually strong on the team side, neither Grupo nor Italo have featured a top rider in the Individual Top 5 except for Vanmarcke for Grupo in 2018.
World Cup Team - History
Team
2017
Pts
2018
Pts
2019
Pts
2020
Pts
1st
CarbonSports
95
Italo
136
Carbon-Sports
123
Italo
106
2nd
Italo
90
Carbon-Sports
124
Italo
116
Grupo Argos
106
3rd
Allianz
89
Grupo Argos
86
Grupo Argos
98
Baku Synergy+
91
4th
Leopard - Evonik
82
Filliers
84
Filliers
79
Peugeot
90
5th
Feryn Bikes
78
Alitalia
72
Peugeot
78
Deutsche Bahn
90
Throughout the years, Italo and CarbonSports had some intense battles for the team trophy, with CarbonSports beating Italo ultimately 2 to 1. However, whilst the former disbanded, luckily Italo found a new rival in the WT super team Grupo Argos - Quala, who had been building up their World Cup capabiltieis over the past 3 years, contiuously coming closer to them, and ultimately sharing 1st place in 2020.
New entrants in the form of Brugse - Trek may have a shot in the World Cup, although the team rankings show that individual and team glory do not come by easily, as neither Filliers nor Team BP have made it to the Top 5 despite their dominante riders last season. With financial incentives by ICL confirmed, the hope continues that more teams set out to compete in the World Cup.
The Favourites
Name
Team
Pts '19
Pts '20
HL
SP
CB
TT
Sagan
Team BP
664
653
77
78
78
69
Van Keirsbulck
Filliers
474
387
78
76
81
73
Kwiatkowski
Qatar Airways
239
267
81
74
73
77
Villela
Credit Suisse
79
176
82
73
69
69
Komisarek
CCC
14
180
79
80
74
71
Phinney
Brugse - Trek
367
272
72
79
79
79
Van Poppel
Filliers
188
296
77
81
71
77
Demare
Alitalia
238
238
76
81
73
67
Mohoric
Grupo Argos
169
242
79
72
67
77
Pintzopoulos
Italo
42
245
76
76
80
72
Yates
Deutsche Bahn
379
207
79
75
72
70
Lutsenko
Italo
214
168
79
75
71
71
Dumoulin
Baku+
75
162
77
68
69
80
Only selective fav riders listed who excel at least in two disciplines
No doubt that Sagan is the overwhelming favourite to win the World Cup again this year and making it 4 in a row. Though not the best in any discpline, his versatility make him a dangerous foe for any rider on any terrain, and he is well capable to finish it off with a win, as seen in the World Cup history.
It also seems likely that Van Keirsbulck will remain Sagan's toughest competitor, although he has refocused himself a bit slightly back to the pavé and may favor the glory of Ronde and Paris-Roubaix over the World Cup.
Should Kwiatkowski choose to target the World Cup, it would certainly look good for him too, as he is perhaps the only rider capable of scoring on all terrains exceptionally well, even in the time trials. However, the polish rider has made big jumps in mountain climbing this year and one may expect other plans for the Pole.
Additionally, Phinney might be absorbed with helping his team stay in the World Tour and any World Cup ambitions - though helpful for scoring points - may have to be put on halt this season. Given his exceptional skills in three discplines, the American could certainly end up as a top challenger though.
Currently two dark horses that have lingered in the lower placings of the World Cup, may be capable of making a big jump into the World Cup top 5 this year. Komisarek and Villela have both profited off (re-)training investments, with the former winning even the Ronde Van Vlaanderen last year and the latter arguably a top favourite for any hill classic.
Well capable of higher placings are also the next names, especially if the racing favors them. Mohoric, Yates and Lutsenko were a bit smitten by the French dominance in the hills last season but if they perform well in the hills, their overall allrounder skills in sprints, time trials and even cobbles could bring some valuable additional points to them and cement an Overall Top 5 founded on strong hill results.
Lastly, Pintzopoulos on the pavé and Van Poppel and Demare in the flat classics have impressed outside of their home domain, with the Greek taking Clasica Tirreno last season and Demare continuously winning Gent - Wevelgem. If those riders can further capitalize on their skills on other terrains and snatch important points from Sagan, Van Keirsbulck & Co, they may also have a good chance of not only winning 1 or 2 races more per year, but also to challenge for a spot in the Top 5.
Whilst many of those riders could potentially stand a chance, the overall race selection will matter greatly, especially as many WT teams will decide again to skip the CT World Cup events in favor of more suitable terrain or due to lack of interest.
For us, the U23s will be very interesting to follow. Unfortunately our own squad isn't stacked with future stars but Jimenez at least got a mention as he's definitely our main man to watch!
What an absolutely fantastic preview Shonak. Very well done! All I can say that Komisarek is challenging for the World Cup crown this season as he is going to be on the start of every race that counts in it . Let's see what newly improved rider can do this season.
Ripley and Ulrich also with great previews. I appreciate all the jobs people do!
DaveTwoBob has amended his model that analyses the ICL WT, CT and U23 teams that came up with his dodgy predictions last year. Not satisfied with a flawed model using real stats, this year DaveTwoBob has invented his own stat called Stage Race (SR) to try reflect the higher scoring potential of stage racers. Accordingly the influence of Mountain stat has been reduced. Another addition is a mechanism to reduce a team’s score if the same rider tops more than one category, this is designed to reflect the impact of limited race days. This applies better to WT and will slightly distort results in CT and mess up U23 big time. To improve the influence of depth I have doubled the contribution of the rider score.
Any similarity between these predictions and real life are purely coincidental
WORLD TOUR PREDICTIONS LAST SEASON
Info courtesy of Ripley
The model does not account for depth well and that’s the big strength of Grupo Argos – Quala. A couple of predictions were 10 out, I hope I can narrow that down a bit this year.
Rank
WT Pts
D2B
Diff
1
10814
Grupo Argos - Quala
5
-4
2
8646
Liberty Seguros
6
-4
3
7857
Team BP
9
-6
4
7481
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
1
3
5
6915
Suntory Lucozade Sport
4
1
6
6785
Sevilla Cycling Team
16
-10
7
6732
Italo
3
4
8
6518
KBC Godiva
8
0
9
6383
Baku Synergy Plus
7
2
10
5948
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
14
-4
11
5762
Alitalia
10
1
12
5728
Ceramica Panaria
2
10
13
5652
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
12
1
14
5466
Deutsche Bahn
13
1
15
4654
Credit Suisse
15
0
16
4423
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
11
5
17
2944
Santos Euskadi
17
0
18
1423
Vegeta Cycling Team
18
0
WORLD TOUR
The WT division looks very close with the top 11 teams within 10% of the leading score (and the margin for error in this model is almost certainly higher than that!)
Liberty Seguros are just in front of Grupo Argos – Quala & Allianz - BMW Cycling Team being best in Mountain, Hills and Stage Racing. After that we have 8 teams competing for the podium places. The model has CCC Sprandi Polkowice, Credit Suisse, Trans Looney Tunes and Bosch Cycling Team fighting to stay in the WT.
I have increased the Rider score contribution to better value Grupo Argos – Quala but I think this now undervalues Bosch Cycling Team who I don’t think are guaranteed to finish last.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
Pos
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
%
1
Liberty Seguros
1
1
7
17
18
1
0%
2
Grupo Argos - Quala
4
3
2
18
12
2
1%
3
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
2
3
17
11
5
4
1%
4
Baku Synergy +
7
7
1
8
9
7
4%
5
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
3
2
11
5
17
3
4%
6
Renault Classic
5
5
10
5
15
5
6%
7
Team BP
6
8
3
10
8
6
6%
8
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
12
10
13
1
6
12
8%
9
Italo
8
11
8
4
12
11
11%
10
Deutsche Bahn
14
8
5
7
11
10
11%
11
Alitalia
8
13
6
14
2
9
11%
12
Brugse Zot - Trek
12
18
8
3
7
13
15%
13
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
16
14
3
12
9
18
18%
14
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
18
14
15
2
3
16
20%
15
Credit Suisse
11
6
11
15
12
14
22%
16
Trans Looney Tunes
15
14
18
9
3
15
23%
17
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
16
14
15
16
1
17
25%
18
Bosch Cycling Team
8
11
13
13
16
8
29%
WT Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
Liberty Seguros
82
80
78
74
76
86.2
Grupo Argos - Quala
81
79
80
73
80
84.6
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
81
80
75
76
80
84.9
Baku Synergy +
79
78
80
78
80
84.4
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
81
80
77
79
76
85.1
Renault Classic
82
81
78
79
78
85.9
Team BP
81
79
80
78
79
85.3
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
78
78
76
81
81
82.4
Italo
79
78
79
79
78
83.2
Deutsche Bahn
79
79
79
79
80
83.6
Alitalia
79
77
78
75
81
82.7
Brugse Zot - Trek
78
77
79
79
80
82.0
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
77
77
80
78
78
80.9
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
76
77
76
81
81
81.6
Credit Suisse
79
80
77
75
78
82.5
Trans Looney Tunes
78
77
75
78
80
82.3
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
77
77
76
74
80
81.2
Bosch Cycling Team
79
78
77
76
76
84.2
WT Team Top Rider per Terrain
No Team managed 6 different riders per Terrain. Adding Stage Race has squeezed the table a bit, hope you can still read it.
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
SR
Air Algérie - Navibulgar
Diego Ulissi
Diego Ulissi
Jonathan Castroviejo
Florian Senechal
Marcel Kittel
Diego Ulissi
Alitalia
Adam Yates
Adam Yates
Tobias Ludvigsson
Sean De Bie
Arnaud Demare
Adam Yates
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
Warren Barguil
Warren Barguil
Thibaut Pinot
Gebremariam Alemayo
Bryan Coquard
Warren Barguil
Baku Synergy +
Nairo Quintana
Nairo Quintana
Tom Dumoulin
Daniel Oss
Giacomo Nizzolo
Nairo Quintana
Bosch Cycling Team
Silvio Herklotz
Silvio Herklotz
Silvio Herklotz
Harrison Adams
Fabian Schnaidt
Silvio Herklotz
Brugse Zot - Trek
Charles Engeldinger
Charles Engeldinger
Taylor Phinney
Taylor Phinney
Andrew Fenn
Andrew Talansky
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
Nikita Novikov
Patryk Komisarek
Kamil Gradek
Patryk Komisarek
Caleb Ewan
Nikita Novikov
Credit Suisse
Davide Villella
Davide Villella
Bob Jungels
Salvatore Puccio
Fabio Silvestre
Davide Villella
Deutsche Bahn
Alberto Contador
Simon Yates
Rasmus Quaade
Sep Vanmarcke
Andrea Guardini
Alberto Contador
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
Juan Pizarro
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Mathias Krigbaum
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Danny Van Poppel
Juan Pizarro
Grupo Argos - Quala
Jan Polanc
Jan Polanc
Anton Vorobyev
Anton Vorobyev
Julian Alaphilippe
Jan Polanc
Italo
Vincenzo Nibali
Alexey Lutsenko
Miguel Martínez
Markos Pintzopoulos
Fulvio Spagnoli
Vincenzo Nibali
Liberty Seguros
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Willem Hofland
Mikel María López Gallego
Jesús Herrada
Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor
Thomas Nybo Riis
Tom-Jelte Slagter
Fredrik Ludvigsson
John Degenkolb
John Degenkolb
Felix Großschartner
Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak
Fabio Aru
Michał Kwiatkowski
Michał Kwiatkowski
Tom Van Asbroeck
Tom Van Asbroeck
Fabio Aru
Renault Classic
Romain Bardet
Romain Bardet
Michael Hepburn
Juris Eisaks
Mads Pedersen
Romain Bardet
Team BP
Rafal Majka
Rafal Majka
Campbell Flakemore
Peter Sagan
Leigh Howard
Rafal Majka
Trans Looney Tunes
Pieter Serry
Pieter Serry
Geraint Thomas
Alexander Kristoff
Nacer Bouhanni
Pieter Serry
METHODOLOGY
The methodology uses a combination of the absolute quality of the top 3 riders on each terrain plus the relative ranking of each key stat to generate a total team score.
The relative Terrain weightings were calculated from the ICL19 points earned by riders based on their highest primary stat. This year I have reduced Mountain influence and introduced a Stage Race stat which has the highest influence.
1. Select the top 3 riders in each team over 6 stats MO, HIL, TT, COB, SP and SR.
2. For each one of the Primary Stats
3. Take off a base stat to accentuate the difference between riders, these are 75 for WT, 72 for CT and 64 for U23.
4. Apply factors of 7,3 and 2 to the stats minus base for the top 3 riders and sum the results to get a Rider Score.
5. Rank the results
6. Multiply Team Count +1 minus Rank (e.g. WT Rank 1 gets 18) with a Terrain Weighting (e.g. MO is higher than TT) to give a Stat Score
7. Apply factors to Stat score and Rider score to balance their contribution.
7. Add the factored Stat Scores and the Rider Scores to get a Team Score
The model ignores Depth Scoring, Classics, TTT, U25, Backup Stats and Planning Choices. Possible improvements for next season.
For the excel boffins the formula for Stage Race rating is below. The +8 is a workaround for internal calculation reasons to distinguish the SR used stats from the “native” stats. I didn’t have the time to do a redesign to make it work properly.
Interested to hear opinions on adjusting the factors for stage racing which are Mountain*2, Hill*0.7, TT*0.8, Recovery*0.2. These try to average out for a season, TT isn’t higher as some stage races don’t have a ITT.
=((MO+8)*2+(HIL+8)*0.7+(TT+8)*0.8+(REC+8)*0.2)/3.8
CT and U23 to follow.
Edited by DaveTwoBob on 02-07-2022 12:22
Sagan's schedule is identical to last season and he's definitely out to defend the WC crown. We are giving other riders a fighting chance by bringing Howard along for all flat classics instead of making Sagan the main sprinter. Should he lose his title we'll have to reconsider that next season.
Thanks for the great previews. Happy to see that our U23 is competitive, unlike LYS in Ulrich's ranking. Given that BP and LYS draw a lot of their points from their top leaders I am less worried about that one. However if we have some bad luck (Herrada non-performing or crashing) we will drop hard.
Cool to see us on top in D2B ranking (provided Qatar doesnt beat us to it with the updated stat change). Think stage racing, mountains and hills might all fall easily into the same category, however its a great alternative to finally include this key category for scoring, namely stage racing. Also dont see how we could beat Grupo Argos this season but the margin is so low to Grupo it doesnt even count tbh.
The overall ranking looks interesting, there are no clear relegation candidates as last season, because Bosch, CCC and Credit Suisse can easily go on full rampage if their leaders perform.
Nice to see my team still looks better on paper than how they will actually perform
Seriously though, last year was the first time I really focused on the World Cup and to finish third was a great surprise. Being a very balanced team will mean we can't win it individually, but having good leaders for each discipline we might be able to get a good team result again.
Following the maxim “Keep it simple, stupid!” I once again present my prediction based on the brilliantly basic formula WAVG9. Only the AVGs of the top 9 riders per team are considered, with the best rider's AVG carrying 9x the weight of the 9th best rider. Stage racer or TT specialist, it's all the same to me. You can compare last season's prediction with the final ranking on the left side of the table. (R20 = WAVG 20, Pro. = Promoted)
WT20
R20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
WAVG
1
1
1
Argos
80.7
79.8
79.7
79.6
79.4
77.1
76.3
76.3
76.0
79.18
2
4
2
Allianz
81.5
80.2
80.1
77.9
76.9
76.7
76.3
75.6
75.5
78.89
3
12
3
Qatar
81.9
81.9
78.0
77.9
76.6
75.8
75.5
75.3
74.9
78.75
4
3
5
BP
80.8
80.2
79.1
78.4
78.3
76.2
76.0
75.6
75.3
78.75
5
10
6
Filliers
81.1
80.8
78.0
77.6
77.5
77.3
76.7
76.3
76.0
78.74
6
11
4
Alitalia
79.8
79.7
78.9
78.0
77.6
77.5
77.1
76.6
76.4
78.56
7
2
9
Seguros
81.7
79.5
79.3
77.4
76.6
76.2
76.2
75.7
75.2
78.53
8
5
10
Renault
82.4
78.3
78.3
77.8
77.1
76.4
76.1
76.1
75.7
78.45
9
7
8
Italo
79.9
79.2
78.4
78.1
77.8
77.7
76.9
76.4
76.3
78.44
10
9
11
Baku
79.8
78.9
78.9
78.5
78.0
77.1
76.8
76.3
75.3
78.43
11
14
12
DB
79.5
79.3
78.8
78.0
77.5
77.3
76.4
75.8
75.7
78.28
12
Pro.
-
Brugse
80.1
79.3
78.8
77.0
76.7
76.6
76.1
76.0
75.1
78.09
13
8
7
Algerie
80.4
80.0
77.5
76.9
76.9
76.1
75.9
75.9
75.4
78.03
14
13
15
CCC
81.0
79.2
77.1
76.7
76.6
76.3
76.2
76.1
76.0
77.94
15
15
16
Suisse
81.3
78.4
77.1
76.9
76.6
76.6
76.5
75.8
75.7
77.92
16
Pro.
-
Trans
80.1
78.4
78.0
76.9
76.8
76.0
76.0
75.7
74.7
77.72
17
Pro.
-
Bosch
81.9
77.7
77.4
76.5
75.8
75.3
75.3
75.2
75.1
77.58
18
Pro.
-
Polestar
78.8
78.5
77.6
77.2
77.1
76.2
76.1
76.1
75.9
77.56
Once again it predicts Argos to come out top quite comfortably, which seems realistic to me. #2 and #3 haven't changed, either. While last year Allianz only did a little worse than prediced, Qatar (formerly Ceramica) did far worse, but that was largely due to a race-ending Aru GT crash.
Hot on Qatar's heels are BP and Filiers. Alitalia comes next, their top riders aren't quite as intimidating, but their depth gets rewarded, they have the strongest 7th, 8th and 9th best riders.
Liberty Seguros is a team WAVG keeps underestimating, at least it doesn't look quite as bad as last season. Renault Classic, Italo and Baku are especially close, though with Bardet Renault has the single strongest rider in the whole ICL and WAVG hardly accounts for that.
Deutsche Bahn, despite all their wheelings and dealings, haven't changed much by WAVG. Of the four new teams only Brugse Zot is predicted to remain in the WT, while the other three are the top relegation candidates. In reality, though, Herklotz is capable of keeping Bosch in the WT single-handedly.
On the other hand the same is true for CCC's Komisarek and Credit Suisse's Villella. Maybe Air Algerie (formely KBC) has to worry more than WAVG suggests, Kittel is sure to have a final top-scoring season, but Senechal's performances last year were worrying. A bad omen might be that last year's 13th ranked team by WAVG, Peugeot, was relegated.
Personally, I definitely see Liberty Seguros fighting for the podium again, I feel Filiers and Alitalia need great seasons to reach these positions, like last year's actual result they might end up a bit lower. Bardet might catch another record haul of points and move Renault higher, again in line with last year's final table.
Italo, Baku and Deutsche Bahn look just about right, without a really strong captain but good... depth at the top. Mind you, CCC, Credit Suisse and Bosch all have the potential to do a lot better than WAVG suggests thanks to Komisarek, Villella and Herklotz.
But I guess Venezuela is more likely to show up, if I treat Ollero and some others well...
Pintzopoulos
Baku Synergy+
