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ICL20 - Previews & Statistics
redordead
Ripley wrote:
Certainly not, Senechal will surely score so many points that your team will do much better. Predicting CT teams is tough because they have a lot of flexibility booking their races and can play to their strengths and mostly avoid their weaknesses. D2b's prediction would be more accurate if you had to race a rigid calendar, like the WT teams have to.


I wasn't trying to say we will for sure finish last in the end season points ranking, that's also of course down to race selection, planning and luck.

I simply agree that any previews taking into account squad depth should place us at the bottom, since we don't have any Pfft

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
DaveTwoBob
DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING


U23 TOUR


I suspect I might be the only manager who cares about this but here goes.

The model predicts PureBlack Racing edging out Suntory Orangina in a tight two horse race. The final podium spot is between 5 teams, the model gives Deutsche Bahn Development Team the 3rd place.

The model uses the same Terrain weightings as for WT and CT but I suspect these could usefully be tweaked to better represent U23 scoring opportunities, maybe next year.

The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.

TeamScoreMOHILTTCOBSPDiff%
1PureBlack Racing28311219122
2Suntory Orangina2809362111-22-1%
3Deutsche Bahn Development Team24632181076-368-13%
4Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team2418184223-413-15%
5La Fundación24046101695-427-15%
6Équipe Development Citroën2365158434-466-16%
7Aru4Ever - CPA224051023191-591-21%
8Giant Asia Racing Team2103121111415-728-26%
9Aviva Futura Project203713671512-794-28%
10Astana U23203644181722-795-28%
11Los Gauchitos199271912168-839-30%
12Alpine Boys198610812719-845-30%
13Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar193091021209-901-32%
14Podravka Cycling Team185081692113-981-35%
15Magnum - Madshus Youngsters176016316423-1071-38%
16Síragon Project1667131614619-1164-41%
17LBO Development Team1583102052216-1248-44%
18Omroep Zeeland - Lammerts Youth Team157923147117-1252-44%
19EF Cycling School1532171419518-1299-46%
20Team Privatbank1438211322109-1393-49%
21KBC - 231157222311814-1674-59%
22BlackBerry Limited U2311561822151219-1675-59%
23Bora - Argon18 Development Team1018202162317-1813-64%



U23 Team Top Rider per Terrain
TeamMOHILTTCOBSP
PureBlack RacingChristian LecomteLoïc AstierLoïc AstierLoïc AstierJeffrey Ross
Suntory OranginaLuis CrawfordLuis CrawfordJonathan WrightMark SaffordSalif Mane
Deutsche Bahn Development TeamJürgen ReuterJürgen ReuterCarl IlsankerLutz BergPantheras Dimas
Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development TeamGeoffrey RazicHenk Vanden BoerNoah ThompsonNeil WhittakerSamuel Willems
La FundaciónAlex OrtegaAlex OrtegaWenyan LiuMark ParreñoJosé Miguel Patrick
Équipe Development CitroënBernard SchaulsGuillaume AmarBernard SchaulsSébastien HochartEric Dufour
Aru4Ever - CPAXavier ElaVjatsheslav KovlenkoMatteo SavinoGratien CasseSimon Eden
Giant Asia Racing TeamDion KoejoeChinnawat WongsaUlrich BrouwersDinar NitseskyDong-chul Won
Aviva Futura ProjectMax FritschMax FritschMax FritschAndrew SheltonPeter Broomhead
Astana U23Stefano ZappinoCarl IbraevRustyam IvanovAidyn SarsenbaevAidyn Sarsenbaev
Los GauchitosErnesto UrízarErnesto UrízarGermán OlleroRubén GorriaránAndrés Cruz
Alpine BoysFabian AuingerMaximilien NoguesSebastiano MalnatiMarco ScrivanoMarco Scrivano
Telenor Youth Team p/b PolestarJames SmithJames SmithKirill MakukhinKirill MakukhinElias Leinonen
Podravka Cycling TeamStanimir MaričićStanimir MaričićWalenty KurantyWalenty KurantyJanez Horvat
Magnum - Madshus YoungstersJacob BrundbyJacob BrundbyHenning SundbaumErkan KarlssonFredrik Sundqvist
Síragon ProjectMarkus VegaDavid FrígolaMarkus VegaVsevolod ButenkoVsevolod Butenko
LBO Development TeamToomas TohverToomas TohverAras ButkusGijsbrecht MichielsOtto Pichlmann
Omroep Zeeland - Lammerts Youth TeamNico RoembiakNico RoembiakNico RoembiakGeoffery JanssensMatt Wadsworth
EF Cycling SchoolJosé Agustín GonzalezZdzislaw KolodziejskiMarcel HornigSusumu YamazakiZdzislaw Kolodziejski
Team PrivatbankBronislav PolachIlari KolesovBulat SaigidovBulat SaigidovIgnác Kolecko
KBC - 23Zoltán KonczZoltán KonczZoltán KonczPhilippe OusemaneErich Vychodil
BlackBerry Limited U23Mike PayneRobbie O'MaoJules MathieuDanny PageCharles Logan
Bora - Argon18 Development TeamRafael DiazJulian JansenMarc KümmelRafael DiazDaniel Kopp

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df_Trek
U23 battle looks super-hard...I didn't realize that I had the worst MO skill, but yeah, I didn't find anything close to a decent level with scouts in my focus regions, and that's it. I was hoping for something higher in sprints and hills anyway.
 
OZrocker
It's amazing what a year in the development system can do, Giant Asia were one of the lower teams last season but now we have the top hill rider, 4/5 capable leaders (even if I had to alter their development to stay under 72.1 Pfft) and might even finish top 10. Holding on to pot 5 and 6 talents for an extra year really can make a difference, but it means we probably won't be as good for season 2021.
 
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Ulrich Ulriksen
That U23 prediction looks very accurate for KBC since the only actual talents on the roster are TT riders. But darn it we are going to be fierce in all the team time trials.
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AbhishekLFC
If we get 3rd in the U23s, I'll be delighted Grin

Thanks for the great work again D2B!!
 
Shonak
Thanks D2B, the merry U23 shuffle continues. Usually Fundacion's talents leave earlier the squad than most competitors but I am happy that after last year with a heavy focus om hills and tts we are now.compeitive in three.completely different terrains.

Hopefully racing will be good and not feature too much weird AI Wink
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Nemolito
Nice to see that we'll be somewhat competitive in the hills and on the cobbles during the U23 season Smile Last place in sprinting is even worse than the main team, but that was expected. Thank you for the preview(s)!
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Vali
Well relegation has to be the goal again for us seemingly. Pfft

Hopefully our Talents can show themselves in the U23 circuit. Smile
Credits to the_hoyle for my avatar.
 
Fabianski
Mid-table for a new U23 team looks pretty decent, especially given that we only have two 22y.o. riders, all others being younger. Just have to somehow keep Ollero below 72.1 next off-season Pfft
 
DaveTwoBob
Thanks for all the thanks.

The modelling gave my excel skills a good runout Smile

Pleased to see the U23 preview gained some interest.

Good luck to everyone in the coming season and feel free to point out where the model didn't do a good job and I might be able to improve it for next season Smile
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df_Trek
Continental Tour 2020 Preview


Climbers

Leader rating:
- MO;
- RES and ACC primarily;
- STA REC secondly to allocate borderline cases.

Team rating:
- Quality of the leader;
- Number of domestiques with high MO skill (>74);
- MO skill valor of the best domestique;
- Possibility to line up a second rider as leader in another race, without weakening too much the team around first leader.

Versatility bonus:
I took TT as the obvious choice. It's surely the skill that can help a GC contender to score good points in some stage races and surely in GT.

i.imgur.com/kgMCgFa.png


Bosch ahead with the best stage racer of CT, but Shell following with two super strong leaders but problems about deep scoring, Magnum is near with another great stage racer, then many teams with good riders who can score well, race planning will be crucial here. Polestar and ICBC without a top scorer but with a solid team for mountains. EF, Pedal Africa and Tierra del Fuego can really break into top spots with a good planning. Latvijas looking for points with clever choice of the calendar.


Punchers

Leader rating:
- HIL;
- ACC;
- STA and RES for finishing touches.

Team rating:
- Quality of the leader;
- Number of domestiques with high HIL skill (>74);
- HIL skill valor of the best domestique;
- Possibility to line up a second rider as leader in another race, without weakening too much the team around first leader.

Versatility bonus:
Again I took TT, for the chance to score points in short stage races with a TT stage, where there aren't big mountains.

i.imgur.com/XMJppIU.png


Often this follows what MO skill already shown us, and that's for Bosch, but they have to take care about available race days, same for Magnum. Guinness will try to score his best here with a top rider for CT. Again Pedal Africa and ICBC with the deepest teams, matched by Magnum, with likely the best top3 in this terrain. Mid table very crowded, can bring some unexpected results also to one-star-rated teams, with luck and good planning.


Time Trialist

Leader rating:
- Considered a kind of 75/25 TT/PRL;
- RES and FL for adjustements.

Team rating:
- according to the best team that is possible to line up in a TTT.

Versatility bonus:
MO because it is fundamental when there are climbs in the TT route.

i.imgur.com/XHprAnf.png


Usually not many surprises here, Brugse Zot in front with the best rider in TT/PRL combo, but the real difference is in secondary stats. Magnum, Polestar and Strava are anyway very close and they should score massively in TT. Then many teams aiming for podiums: Millenium, Nordea, Equinor and Guinness over others. Many stage races riders can skip pure TT races due to race days problems. Tierra del Fuego, Visit Ukraine and Polestar with great teams for TTT. Magnum and Bosch can destroy enemies in uphill TT with great climbers.


Northern Classics

Leader rating:
- COB;
- FL and STA;
- HIL and RES.

Team rating:
- 3 stars to best teams;
- 2 stars to those who can race with at least 2 good riders/3 decent ones;
- 1 star for both who has just a leader or not at all.

Versatility bonus:
SP, a real powerful gun when the race is decided in reduced bunch, that's quite a frequent scenario in many northern classics.

i.imgur.com/5t8bPlT.png


VIP Mobile with one of the best northern specialist that CT has ever seen, moreover well supported by the team. Brugse Zot is getting ready to clash with a strong leader and likely the best team. Magnum and Trans Cycling will try to profit by this rivalry with solid leaders and decent teams, Guinnes can score some deep points too. Most of the other teams are unprovided to deal with this kind of races, except for EF, Nordea and Tierra del Fuego.


Sprinters

Leader rating:
- 60/40 for SP/ACC;
- in order of importance FL>RES>STA.

Team rating:
- Not everytime more good sprinter you have more stars you get;
- Quality and number of domestiques with high FL skill;
- Presence of a good leadout man with decent SP/ACC plus good FL/RES;
- Possibility to bring more sprinters in clashing races at the same time without weakening too much the team around first leader.

Versatility bonus:
HILL, not every race/stage decided by a bunch sprint is flat like a wooden board, that can be weighty in saving energies for the last kms or even to don't get dropped if the race turn harder.

i.imgur.com/P2UvPkm.png


Equinor and Cymru Wales dominating with the best trains and finishers. Shell and Strava right a foot behind with sreat sprinters as well. Guinness with good alternatives emerges from the bunch, where almost every team can soon or later catch a win. Tierra del Fuego and in particular Visit Ukraine looking to make life hard to pure sprinters in hilly routes.

Continental Tour 2020 Prediction


- Looking at the calendar;
- Counting how many races should reward points to each skill (taking in account also secondary classifications and single stage bonus points).
- Setting a weighted numeric value to each stat;
- Multiplying the total number of stars of each category to his related factor;
- Summing all 5 absolute valors.

Skill Values


MO -> 10
HIL -> 10
TT -> 4,5
COB -> 4,5
SP -> 8,5

Final Output: the Ranking


1Magnum - Madshus238
2Bosch Cycling Team225,5
3Brugse Zot - Trek210
4VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff187
5Equinor Pro Cycling Team179,5
6Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor173
7Shell Pro Cycling169
8Trans Cycling Team164,5
9Guiness Cycling p/b BlackBerry161,5
10Pedal Africa for Qhubeka155
11Tierra del Fuego150
12Education First x Palace - Nippo148
13Team Cymru Wales140,5
14Millenium - LATAM Airlines134
15Strava - Avanti132,5
16Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm128
17ICBC Cyling Team125
18Nordea Bank – SAP118,5
19VIP Mobile106,5

 
DaveTwoBob
Nice work Trek, logical and well presented.

Interesting your top 3 are the same as my model.

You rated Hills higher than I did which probably explains some of the variance. I didn't create separate terrain ratings for each division which is one of the many weaknesses of my model. It will be interesting to see who has the more accurate predictions Smile
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baseballlover312
I enjoy df_Trek's preview the most so far. Pfft

In all seriousness, I'm fine with the low rankings most previews have put me in. As we stated previously, this first season was all about RP and just building regional foundations going forward. You can especially see that in my dev team. We have no particularly good prospects on any terrain, but I'm just happy to be giving more young Irishmen and Canadians ride so that the talent pool develops.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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df_Trek
@D2B I noticed that our ranking is very similar, and actually yes, hills seems to be linked to most of the variances (Guinness case is proof of that). Anyway the real weakness of every model is that it's impossible to take into account about race planning, which can change everything.

Also I don't think that the biggest gap will be between 3rd and 4th team...this may lead to a "boring" promotion fight, but I'm sure is going to be much entertaining.

Another weak point can be that I doubt VIP Mobile will score the lowest, with a so high AVG rider who can score big points in WT races too.

@BBL your team isn't easy to judge, considering that HIL stat can be tricky to predict, and Guinness has an average team for every terrain but Mountains. But in CT you can score well with a shrewd calendar.
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
This prediction uses an approach I developed to estimate points scored based on OVL rating and rider type. Because each rider is predicted separately it does not take into a account team structure. So it is likely that teams with a lot of depth in one area are over-predicted (e.g Team Cymru). Since I had already done most of the work for this figured I would post the resulting predictions. Likely flawed at a team level, don't stake your fortunes on it.

System doesn't work for U23, so sorry no prediction there.

Scarily my own system has KBC much closer to the bottom than the others.

WT
1. Grupo Argos - Quala 10,941
2. Italo 9,356
3. Allianz - BMW Cycling Team 8,756
4, Alitalia 8,368
5, Baku Synergy Plus 7,915
6. Team BP 7,828
7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team 7,821
8. Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - Cipollini 7,713
9. Deutsche Bahn 7,702
10. Équipe Cycliste Peugeot 7,551
11. Sevilla Cycling Team 7,221
12. Suntory Lucozade Sport 6,996
13. KBC Godiva 6,914
14. Liberty Seguros 6,857
15. Credit Suisse 5,845
16. CCC Sprandi Polkowice 5,497
17. Santos - Euskadi 4,740
18. Vegeta Cycling Team 3,302
CT
1. Equinor Pro Cycling Team 4,456
2. Brugse Zot - Trek 4,190
3. Team Cymru Wales 3,871
4. Shell Pro Cycling 3,693
5. Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor 3,115
6. Bosch Cycling Team 2,999
7. Magnum - Madshus 2,827
8. Trans Cycling Team 2,665
9. Pedal Africa for Qhubeka 2,570
10. VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff 2,496
11. Tierra del Fuego 2,423
12. Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry 2,404
13. VIP Mobile 2,295
14. Millenium - LATAM Airlines 2,289
15. Strava - Avanti 2,287
16. Nordea Bank - SAP 2,259
17. ICBC Cycling Team 2,176
18. Education First x Palace - Nippo 2,146
19. Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm 1,599

Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Ripley
Thanks, Ulrich! Solid method, I like it.
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Ripley
Total Stat Points 2020

Just a small table with the top 11 riders by their total stat points, plus a few selected riders with a lot of stat points for their wage:

Last NameTeamTotalAVGWage
SaganTeam BP99880.01915
KwiatkowskiCeramica Panaria98780.92150
PhinneyBrugse Zot - Trek98379.81290
MohoricGrupo Argos - Quala98379.61675
Boasson HagenTrans Cycling Team98177.1700
AruCeramica Panaria97981.71670
Van KeirsbulckFilliers – Mora97781.01400
QuintanaKBC Godiva97781.82005
LudvigssonAlitalia97479.0950
HerklotzBosch Cycling Team97480.41280
DegenkolbDeutsche Bahn97480.01425
JungelsCredit Suisse96877.8600
KomisarekCCC Sprandi Polkowice96678.6540
PuccioCredit Suisse95976.5400
PöstlbergerTeam BP95374.9250
WürtzDeutsche Bahn93573.4160
HansenTeam BP93172.6130
HnikKBC Godiva92171.9100

Is it any wonder that my first two targets were Sagan and Lasse Hansen? And my last pick just had to be Pöstlberger instead of a TT specialst? Smile
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Fabianski
Well, 11th seems to be the most common outcome for my team - I'd be absolutely happy with that!
Quite much agree with trek's evaluation of TdF, although I feel that just one stat point more for a leader would have given us one star more in some categories. Hence, I believe a lot could be possible with good daily form on various terrains - which obviously holds for anyone, though. It will come down to good planning - a domain I'm not quite mastering yet Pfft

Thanks to all those who post some predictions here, really interesting to read and to watch the differences according to the model used Smile
 
OZrocker
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
WT
1. Grupo Argos - Quala 10,941
...
5, Baku Synergy Plus 7,915
6. Team BP 7,828
7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team 7,821
...
13. KBC Godiva 6,914
14. Liberty Seguros 6,857
...

I like this prediction! Don't expect it will actually come true, but it's nice to be in the top half of the table again Pfft

I'm not sure how we got into 5th here, because aside from Dumoulin most of our leaders are really 2nd tier riders at best and are spread evenly across rider types. Even with their recent shift to a new generation I would be very surprised if Liberty Seguros finish that low. Betancur and Herrada will likely be split between races due to their low number of RDs, and top climbers can be very valuable for WT points through the Grand Tours.

The whole WT looks a lot more even this year, with only a few teams who are clearly above or below the average. Argos and Allianz aside, I think 3 of the top 5 spots could be very close and I think the previews so far are showing that. CT is a bit less even, with Equinor and Brugse the clear standouts. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedal Africa finally get promoted too - the years of development have left them with very nice squad depth.
 
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