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Kenya Mountain Classic Discussion
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 28-05-2020 22:29
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Classics Specialist
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One of the simplest routes for a race you will see, climb, descend climb again. The road isn't overly long either, so on a whole it isn't a brutally difficult day of racing. Except for the fact you are racing to the top of a very long steady climb with some of the best climbers in the world all aiming for a win.
The route is helpful in the finishing climb is also done once earlier in the stage, before descending down the gentler downhill. A distance of flat really won't allow for any serious long range attacks, so it will be the final decisive ascent that determines the winner of the race. As for the climb itself, the lower half is the harder half with an average of around 6 or 7%, including a couple small sections that will go just over 12%. As you get to the top half of the climb the grade becomes more manageable with really no difficult sections except for one very short section of 11% about two-thirds the way up the climb. The final few kilometres are fairly steady and not particularly steep so I wouldn't look for a devastating attack to be the winning move, but rather simply the man willing to ride his pace up this climb consistently and having really good legs on the day.
We make no mistake about what is required today, it is climbing skill. Some resistance will also help given the steady tempo likely to be in play. Lastly we will look at acceleration, just in case, but I don't expect it to be much of a factor.
| | | | | | | | | Rider | MO | RS | AC | Rider | MO | RS | AC |  Pluchkin | 85 | 78 | 74 |  Choi | 80 | 76 | 68 |  Tenorio | 84 | 76 | 67 | Carapaz | 80 | 76 | 65 |  Uran | 82 | 81 | 71 |  Schelling | 80 | 76 | 70 |  Martin | 81 | 77 | 75 |  Bennett | 80 | 74 | 73 |  Berhane | 81 | 74 | 68 |  Nerz | 80 | 72 | 68 |  Marquez | 80 | 78 | 80 |  Penasa | 80 | 72 | 76 |  Roglic | 80 | 76 | 74 | Ji | 80 | 69 | 65 |  Meintjes | 80 | 76 | 69 |  Beltran | 79 | 72 | 76 |
There is little surprising in picking out our overall favorites for this race, Pluchkin and Tenorio should be in a class of their own both coming with top notch climbing skills, a nice return to form for this race which hasn't really seen top level climbers since Amador won 3 seasons ago.
Behind the top pair the list gets more jumbled, with Uran sticking out as the most likely to complete the podium with his skill in both climbing and resistance to the longer efforts. If the race does get a bit excited, someone like Marquez might move up the order with his acceleration likely to help with more abrupt changes to pace. For the large group of other very similar riders it may just come down to having good legs at the right time.
As we start to look at other differences, there is varying amounts of team support, someone like Roglic, from our group of many has terrific team support with three other very capable climbers helping him. ENI-MOL has the duo of Choi and Carapaz, as well as three more very good climbers to help. Uran, Meintjes and Penasa likely will be on their own from a very early point in the climbing. While ISA - Hexacta has their duo of Berhane and Ji, but will they work together as the team support climbing behind them is also likely to be gone quickly. Lastly we get to a rider who is a wildcard type with Beltran who is out for himself, and more of a puncheur but if he can survive with the top level guys, his final kick on especially on the less steep top portion might be enough to surprise us all.
Edited by Kentaurus on 29-05-2020 00:05
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 07:03
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 28-05-2020 22:44
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World Champion
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Breakaway bug please?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 28-05-2020 23:15
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Costagli Im hoping is underrated here. He's got good MO and good DH, and the early climb should get rid of any weaker MO/stronger Hill riders even if the last climb is ridden as more of a "hill"
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 28-05-2020 23:25
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Top 5 would be a great day out in an African race, tough field of 80 guys to fight with for that. So long as Bennett shows up in the top 10 and Grmay grabs a few points it’s fine though. Hopefully Marquez can do something here. Thanks for the preview Kent, looking forward to the report.
Also, I know Bennett isn’t super duper punchy but 55ACC is a bit insulting 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 29-05-2020 00:06
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Classics Specialist
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jandal7 wrote:
Also, I know Bennett isn’t super duper punchy but 55ACC is a bit insulting
Oops, copy and paste failure, he's a bit more punchy now, but he lacks any sort of fight.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-05-2020 00:34
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I reported this race back in 2014, and it had some of the best mountain AI that version could really deliver on. Back then, a 78-79 climber could sneak into a top 10 pretty reliably at this type of HC classic. No longer.
Hoping for some aggression and some kind of freak result from Garby. That's basically it.
Or:
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 29-05-2020 01:25
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Grand Tour Champion
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Of course Tenorio had to run into Pluchkin for his final race of the season. Top 5 is the Team Goal. So, if we don't get that, something seriously went wrong.
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| redordead |
Posted on 29-05-2020 04:40
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Posts: 4881
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Sprint finish anyone? 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 29-05-2020 10:48
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Will take a podium for Uran, but want even more of course
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 29-05-2020 12:43
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Come on Martin, lets find that spot on the podium.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 29-05-2020 14:24
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Fingers crossed that Berhane manages to finish in front of the raft of 80/79 mountain dudes lining up here to secure top 5. Route also suits Ji well, and looking for him to at least be in the top 15. Tipping Koshevoy to make the outer reaches of the top 30 for very minor points 
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 29-05-2020 14:29
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Classics Specialist
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If there is a way to sneak a point out of this one then I'll be happy, I'm really not expecting much.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 29-05-2020 14:30
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Not too hopeful for Marquez to live up to his high placing in the favourites list with so many similar climbers on the startlist. Let's see if he can do anything.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 29-05-2020 14:46
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Well, we need to have big luck here with breakaway to get a decent result! Quite good depth in our team here but no good climber at all.. |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 29-05-2020 16:19
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Top 10 from Nerz would be welcome.
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| fintas |
Posted on 29-05-2020 17:21
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Win goal that it will be almost impossible to achieve.
In this race will be the strongest team that we could present, Roglic will thus have a very important support especially from Chiarello.
I would at least reach the top5
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| ryant |
Posted on 31-05-2020 00:30
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Small Tour Specialist
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Looking at that team I sent 
Meintjes better be on a good day because if he ain't then he's receiving no help
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| cio93 |
Posted on 31-05-2020 02:05
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Dominik Nerz!!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 31-05-2020 02:27
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World Champion
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...
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 31-05-2020 05:03
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Team Leader
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6th was kinda disappointing but not too bad.
Thanks for a great report and congrats to Scorchio
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