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Frankfurt Eschborn Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 12:05
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.
 Frankfurt Eschborn
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Preview
Less than two weeks removed from the Berlin ProRace, we’re in Germany again for another one day race. And it’s a premiere! The inaugural edition of Frankfurt Eschborn, classified as a C1 race, starts and finishes in the country's financial capital, but a lot happens in between:
The race is categorized as a flat one, but the first four fifth of the 220 kilometers are anything but. Taking place in the Taunus Mittelgebirge centered around the Feldberg and its neighboring summits, the sprinters will face a number of challenges on the way to what they hope will still be a sprint finish back in Frankfurt. Such an intricate course deserve closer inspection:
The first climb starts about 20 kilometers into the race. The Saalbergpass (#1) is 3,2km at a 6,4% incline. 10 kilometers later, the riders arrive at the Hardt (#2), where it gets a little hardter (haha, get it?!). It’s only 1,6km long, but averages at 7,7% with a peak of 9,3% in the first half.
The Dillenberg (#3; 7,5km at 4%) and the Seelenberg (#4; 2,3km at 6,4%) are a little less demanding before we get to the first really nasty ascents: Almost 60 kilometers into the race, but still 160 from the finish, the Kleiner Feldberg (#5) peaks at 12%, while averaging 6,9% over 2,3km. After a longer descent, the riders are at the first of three tours over the Ruppertshain (#6), which hits even harder, peaking at 13,9%. The Königstein (#7) concludes the first third of the race. With a 3,6% incline over 5,1km, it’s almost relaxing at this point, although it gets as steep as 8,5% towards the summit.
Up next is the big one: the Feldberg (#8), where the riders reach the highest point of the race at 850m above sea level. It’s also the longest climb but not the steepest, going 10,9km at an average of 4,8%. The summit also pretty precisely marks the halfway point of the race. After the long descent, we have the second crossing of the Ruppertshain (#9), again with up to 13,9%.
Next up is the second climb up the Königstein (#10) followed immediately by the Glaskopf (#11), which combine to 10km at a modest 3,6%. The final really steep section follows with the third ascent up the Ruppertshain (#12), before the climbing finishes with two more climbs up the Königstein: first, the way the riders have done twice before already (#13) and finally from another direction, which is a little steeper: 5,6% over 3,8km (#14).
With all that up and down behind them, the riders are looking at 44 flat kilometers from the bottom of the final descent. The peloton might be pretty fractured at this point, but that’s a lot of time for groups catching up to the front again. Some rider, however, might be too far off the back to make it. Considering all this, we’re still looking at sprinters for the favorites first, although we have to take a lot of stats into account, including both uphill stats.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | ST | HI | MO |  Degenkolb | 76 | 84 | 81 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 61 |  Boeckmans | 73 | 81 | 83 | 71 | 74 | 68 | 61 |  Saber | 75 | 81 | 79 | 72 | 74 | 68 | 62 |  Holloway | 78 | 80 | 82 | 77 | 77 | 69 | 62 |  Cavendish | 72 | 82 | 80 | 70 | 73 | 64 | 56 |  Houle | 78 | 79 | 78 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 66 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 53 |  Enger | 73 | 81 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 62 |  Ciolek | 74 | 82 | 78 | 68 | 72 | 65 | 51 |  Granjel Cabrera | 75 | 80 | 77 | 71 | 75 | 69 | 63 |
John Degenkolb is the standout here. He's the fastest rider, has decent although not elite resistance and stamina and is also among the better riders when things get steep. He's as close to a safe bet as we have here.
Boeckmans and Saber are next in line combining a high speed finish with solid secondary stats. Holloway is the gold standard in that regard, as no one can compare in terms of resistance and stamina.
Hugo Houle stands out as easily the best uphill rider among the sprinters. With high stamina, he seems almost uniquely suited for this race.
Van Asbroeck is also a good-ish puncheur, he struggles mightily on longer climbs though, which might be detrimental here. The latter also applies to Cavendish, whose speed has him among the absolute top favorites if he reaches Frankfurt with the peloton, and Ciolek, who also has relatively weak resistance.
Enger and Granjel Cabrera are a bit more well-rounded, but slightly slower than Cavendish and Ciolek.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | ST | HI | MO |  Kupfernagel | 74 | 80 | 80 | 66 | 73 | 64 | 53 |  Vantomme | 72 | 81 | 76 | 63 | 74 | 63 | 54 |  Kreder | 73 | 78 | 80 | 68 | 72 | 70 | 63 |  Von Hoff | 71 | 79 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 66 | 62 |  Boev | 72 | 78 | 78 | 67 | 74 | 65 | 63 |  Ulanowski | 73 | 80 | 77 | 66 | 71 | 58 | 53 |  Keough | 72 | 78 | 75 | 67 | 71 | 64 | 60 |
This second batch of team leaders have a shot here as well, but either lack in secondary starts or the elite speed of most of the top favorites.
The former is true for Kupfernagel and Vantomme, who both suffer uphill and don't have top resistance.
Kreder is the best puncheur in this group, Von Hoff has the best resistance and both he and Boev - who is the amateur teams' best hope here - are somewhat solid uphill, but all three lack the absolute top speed.
Keough is also in that camp, while Ulanowski has the speed but is probably the worst puncheur/climber of all sprinters here.
It should be noted that due to the sheer number of good sprinters present, I've only taken team leaders (by OVL) into consideration here. Otherwise, guys like Merino Criado, Pelucchi and more would have been higher than many of these outsiders on the list.
The only two team leaders not listed above, simply because they aren't that fast, are Signal Iduna's  Mansilla and Desigual's  Tsatevich, but for the sake of completeness, I wanted to at least mention them here.
Finally, I want to acknowledge the puncheurs with the fastest finish, in case this race gets much harder than expected and none of the sprinters make it to the line in the first group, or they don't have enough energy left. In addition to Houle, these are:
| FL | SP | AC | RS | ST | HI | MO | | Kreder | 73 | 77 | 78 | 71 | 75 | 75 | 64 | | Pozdnyakov | 72 | 75 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 67 | | Geschke | 70 | 75 | 74 | 68 | 73 | 73 | 64 | | Tsatevich | 74 | 75 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 77 | 62 | | Bellis | 75 | 74 | 75 | 71 | 80 | 78 | 68 | | Korosec | 70 | 74 | 76 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 67 | | Kadri | 72 | 73 | 76 | 67 | 75 | 75 | 69 | | Groselj | 69 | 72 | 72 | 73 | 72 | 75 | 63 |
Kreder is the biggest name here and easily the fastest. Tsatevich and Bellis also stand out due to their combination of speed and being the best puncheurs in this group.
The CYBEX duo of Pozdnyakov and Geschke are equally fast but not as good uphill. The German also lacks a little resistance compared to some other riders here.
Kadri and Groselj are among the better puncheurs but don't have the top end speed, while Korosec is solid in most stats here, but not exceptional in any one.
I think that covers most of the possible outcomes. Have a look at the entire startlist here:
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 12:11
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Rowe has found his sweet spot with the AI in the classics, Houle hasn't yet at all. Would love to see him make a fist of it going for the podium, especially if it's a hard race, but not sure yet. Thanks for the detailed preview cunego, hope this means the hills will play a part 
On the amateur side, would love to see some crazy tactics from Signal Iduna!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-04-2020 12:16
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If Van Asbroeck can survive the middle part of the race, I can see him get far. We might need Pelucchi as backup here.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 12:41
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jandal7 wrote:
Thanks for the detailed preview cunego, hope this means the hills will play a part
The preview was written before I played the race, don't draw any conlusions from that. I just enjoyed going through the course, and it gives you guys more info to speculate how much they actually do play a part 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 12:57
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cunego59 wrote:
jandal7 wrote:
Thanks for the detailed preview cunego, hope this means the hills will play a part
The preview was written before I played the race, don't draw any conlusions from that. I just enjoyed going through the course, and it gives you guys more info to speculate how much they actually do play a part
Yes of course, sorry for the poor phrasing  
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 13:00
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Oh, I didn't mean to sound annoyed or anything, don't worry
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 05-04-2020 13:07
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Zero-pointer incoming, even if Vantomme makes it over the hills he won't sprint for the win...
Thanks for the detailed route preview cunego!
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| fintas |
Posted on 05-04-2020 14:11
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This will probably be just another race on the calendar. I do not expect anything too much on the part of the team, the lack of resistance and hill in Kupfernagel should end any possibility of a good result.
A place in the top 15 would still be a good result.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 14:58
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Another avoided race for us. Definitely glad we did.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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Posted on 22-11-2024 03:00
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 05-04-2020 16:11
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Very hard to predict this race with a different engine.
Would not be surprised to see a breakaway stay clear, as I expect that most domestics can’t climb.
Thanks for the preview.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 05-04-2020 18:31
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Awesome preview cunego, lots of short climbing might mean hill stat come in to play?
Can't see Cav getting over these hills in a good enough position so my hopes are on Kreder for this race.
I suspect the peleton might get split over the hills meaning an organised chase will be difficult so vital to get someone in the break, looking for van Zyl to repeat his great ride in Italy.
Could go a variety of ways, hope we see some exciting racing.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 05-04-2020 19:15
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'while Ulanowski has the speed but is probably the worst puncheur/climber of all sprinters here.'
That is wrong I believe. If I remember correctly his leadout, Lutsyshyn, is even worse 
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-04-2020 21:33
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Oh you're right I apologize, but at least that honor stays within the same team 
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 05-04-2020 22:11
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Had this one targeted as a good race for Holloway's secondary stats. Worried about the late attacks going cleer - any 77+ flat guys with good resistance are going to be a danger.
Nice to see Groselj get a shout out in the preview but his job is to make sure Holloway gets to the finish in the front group. Got the McCormick first team here which isn't saying a lot but the boys have come up big this season a few times. Holloway doesn't have a lot of race days so need to maximize them.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 06-04-2020 05:30
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Would be great if we can live up to the podium prediction.
Thanks for the great preview
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 06-04-2020 19:13
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Love the profile of this race, really makes me think a flat specialist has a great chance especially if they have some MO! to back it up with all the climbing this race can have. There is also a very serious chance for a breakaway win in this sort of stage. The last thing I expect to see is a normal bunch sprint honestly, too much going on before that for it to work out.
So for those still not sure how MO/HL mechanics work in this edition of the game, this is a great stage for example. The vast majority of this will be using MO as the climbing stat, since the peloton will simply not be going at a pace too high to push many riders into the red. Any climbing yellow bar effort is MO, climbing red bar effort is HL.
That said, if the climbing becomes too much for a rider on the MO side, they will use their HL stat when they do start using red bar to keep up, in which case they hopefully have enough gas to survive the shorter climbs.
As a prediction, I'm going to take Houle to win the race, think he will have the most energy left at the end to put in the best sprint.
Edited by Kentaurus on 06-04-2020 19:19
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| ryant |
Posted on 06-04-2020 19:15
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Well we are covering every base here with both Bellis and Enger present, I have little faith in the latter tbh but Lisbon showed that Bellis should do pretty well regardless in this type of race.
Fingers crossed!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 07-04-2020 07:50
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The report is up and I think it's my longest yet. I felt like the way the race unfolded justified it, but I could also see that it might be more tedious than enjoyable to scroll through 50+ screenshots for some of you. If that's the case, please let me know and I'll keep it a little more concise in the future
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 07-04-2020 07:59
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That went better than expected
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 07-04-2020 08:19
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Quite a fun race and thanks for the report, cunego. I enjoyed the read, despite not having a team here.
Van der Haar though as one of my favorite non-Aussie former Bennelong rider doing great!
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