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Tour of California Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 18:15
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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.
 Tour of California
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Preview
The first race of the year on US soil brings us to the Golden State on the west coast. The Tour of California was once the Tour of Taylor Phinney, who won four out of five editions from 2011 to 2015. Since then, it has seen three different winners in the past three years, but only one of them is here this time around: Sauber’s Tom Jelte Slagter.
Despite being “only” seven stages long, the ToC has stages for every kind of rider: two time trials, two sprint stages and three for those who prefer the road turning uphill, one of those being an explicit mountain stage. A ton of mountain points make it additionally interesting for breakaways.
| MO | HI | TT | RS | RC | AC |  Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 79 | 78 | 79 | 74 |  Amador | 83 | 74 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 71 |  Meintjes | 80 | 77 | 71 | 76 | 78 | 69 |  Penasa | 80 | 74 | 70 | 72 | 77 | 76 |  Choi | 80 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 79 | 68 |  Chiarello | 79 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 77 | 72 |  Talansky | 79 | 77 | 72 | 76 | 77 | 69 |  Bennett | 80 | 76 | 65 | 74 | 79 | 73 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 66 | 74 | 73 | 68 |  Slagter | 78 | 79 | 66 | 73 | 74 | 71 |
There’s really only one favorite for the win here: Aleksandr Pluchkin! He’s easily the best climber in the peloton and the best time trialist of the favorites, he’s got the best resistance of any rider and only a few sprinters can rival his recovery. He only lacks a little bit in the hill department, but few riders are significantly better there. It’s his race to lose.
Andrei Amador is, on paper at least, the one rider who might challenge the Moldovan. He’s the next best climber and time trialist. Slightly lower hill and resistance stats could be identified as a weakness, but even that’s a stretch. He also came second to Slagter in 2017, so he’s familiar with the race.
Behind those two, there’s a big group of second-tier favorites. Natnael Berhane is the best climber among them, but his weak time trialing abilities have him lower on this list, the same applies to George Bennett. Louis Meintjes, Pierre Paolo Penasa and Ki Ho Choi are on a similar level, each having a different strength (Hill, Acceleration and Time Trialing, respectively) and no glaring weakness. Meintjes is actually the only rider of last year’s Top 10 at the start this year, he finished 6th in 2018.
William Chiarello and Andrew Talansky are slighly worse climbers but still very well-rounded. 2017 winner Slagter is a bit of an outlier here as he’s the strongest puncheur and the only one to have a better hill than mountain stat, but he’ll have to make up a lot of time on those two hill stages, given he’ll lose some on the time trials and possibly on the mountain stage as well.
Outsiders and Top Domestiques | MO | HI | TT | RS | RC | AC |  Faglum Karlsson | 78 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 68 |  Chamorro | 78 | 75 | 65 | 76 | 70 | 74 |  Warbasse | 78 | 75 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 65 |  Teklehaimanot | 77 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 76 | 70 |  Costagli | 79 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 76 | 67 | | Abal | 80 | 69 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 72 | | Carapaz | 80 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 77 | 65 | | Ji | 80 | 75 | 69 | 69 | 73 | 65 | | Ranaweera | 78 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 74 | 65 | | Scarponi | 77 | 75 | 66 | 72 | 75 | 70 | | Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 64 | 76 | 74 | 66 |
Here we have several of the third-tier team captains, who still have every chance to get a good GC result. They include Magnus Faglum Karlsson and Lawrence Warbasse, possibly the more complete riders of this group, Juan Ernesto Chamorro, who’s going to struggle in the time trials, Daniel Teklehaimanot, the weakest climber of these, and Teodoro Costagli, the strongest climber but weakest hill rider.
A low hill stat is also what is probably relegating David Abal and Richard Carapaz to domestique roles. Jianhua Ji might have more of a shot to challenge Berhane for the team leadership, as he’s the slightly better time trialist, but also the slightly weaker climber and has less resistance.
Suranga Ranaweera and Paolo Scarponi provide a lot of depth for Sauber next to Slagter while Sergei Pomoshnikov should be another strong support to Choi.
There are several riders who will be considered favorites on the hilly stages but won’t compete for the GC because they’re lacking climbing (and mostly time trialing) abilities. We’ll have a closer look at those at the top of the report of the respective stages, but a few of the major names next to Slagter include  Simon Yates, Christopher Juul-Jensen and  Damiano Caruso.
| TT | PR | FL | | TT | PR | FL | | Coppel | 82 | 82 | 76 | Pluchkin | 79 | 79 | 74 | | Durbridge | 81 | 81 | 73 | Fraile | 79 | 79 | 69 | | Kittel | 81 | 81 | 75 |  Mottin | 79 | 79 | 69 | | Viennet | 80 | 80 | 72 | Mullen | 78 | 78 | 75 | | Schädlich | 80 | 80 | 70 |  Cruz | 78 | 78 | 75 | | Ford | 80 | 80 | 62 | Li | 78 | 78 | 75 | | Dillier | 80 | 79 | 70 | Chavanne | 65 | 82 | 75 |
Jerome Coppel is the big favorite for the two time trials, coming off a dominant win in Uppsala. A few of these are here to redeem themselves after bad performances there, including Marcel Kittel, Emilien Viennet, Lucas Schädlich and to a lesser extent Luke Durbridge, who finished fourth overall in Sweden. Gabriel Chavanne is the outlier as a pure prologue specialist who’ll target stage 1 more than stage 7. But it’s a deep field in general, a lot of different outcomes seem possible.
| SP | AC | FL | RS | | SP | AC | FL | RS | | Kragh Andersen | 80 | 77 | 77 | 74 |  Te Brake | 79 | 76 | 75 | 72 | | Kip | 80 | 82 | 69 | 63 | Lutsyshyn | 79 | 80 | 70 | 73 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | 74 | 66 | Roelandts | 79 | 77 | 73 | 71 | | Vanoverschelde | 80 | 75 | 72 | 64 | Vanderaerden | 79 | 75 | 72 | 65 | | Haller | 80 | 79 | 72 | 71 | Bennett | 79 | 79 | 71 | 68 |  Drapac | 80 | 79 | 71 | 65 | Harrison | 78 | 81 | 72 | 70 |
It’s an interesting crowd of sprinters here. Asbjorn Kragh Andersen and Remco Te Brake have the best combination of flat and resistance stats but both lack the high-end acceleration. The Carlsberg rider has the additional advantage of having by far the best lead-out man in Thomas Vedel Kvist, something that almost all other top sprinters lack.
In stark contrast, Ismael Kip has the best pure combination of sprint and acceleration but weakest flat and resistance stats. A lot of similarly strong sprinters with slightly different strengths and weaknesses should make for very interesting finishes on the two sprint stages.
Special mention for Kazushige Kuboki, whose solid time trialing and prologue could put him in position to get the overall lead on stage two. It’s a stretch, considering he’s not among the very best sprinters, and we’ll have to see how large the time gaps in the time trial are going to be, but weirder things have happened.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 18:37
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World Champion
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This will become: Reasons I shouldnt have sold Choi Pt6
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 14:40
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| viking90 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 18:45
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Wow what a pace you are putting stuff up Cunego, me like!
This race I dont expect much from my team, dont really know the guys under 25 maybe Faglum Karlsson can fight for that? Other then that aiming for breakaways! |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 18:52
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Big chances for AKA here, doubt he'll live up to the hype. Can only hope though.
Warbasse should actually like this race in theory because it capitalizes on his versatility. With the greater importance of mountain though, I'm not sure he can keep up. We'll see.
And oh yeah, JJ's here! Hopefully he can take advantage in the hill stages. Not sure how that shakeup will work though.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 31-01-2020 20:25
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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A filler race in terms of squad. The Americans, the time trialists, the youngsters and Drapac. Will take any point.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 20:34
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Pluchkin and Amador why? Can't you just leave us alone here?  Rapidly losing faith in this season. Goal race here, top 5 needed for that and at the very least to give us some points and momentum.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 31-01-2020 21:20
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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Hey, Pluchkin! A race I can win again! 
Should be a win too, no excuses. Support is not crazy strong though, but Zouzou and Dzhus should be sufficient, and on good days Golovash, Lusyshyn and Pszczolarski could also challenge for stage wins in the TTs or sprints.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| beagle |
Posted on 31-01-2020 21:34
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
Joined: 06-10-2007
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Into the breaks, please!
Nice preview, thanks cunego!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 31-01-2020 22:12
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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I recently handed in my bachelor's thesis and the end of the semester is coming up without any exams - I've played more PCM in the past three weeks than in the entirety of 2019, I think  I'm happy to do it, but of course it's also nice to see that the reports are well received.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 01-02-2020 01:46
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Teklehaimanot's only leadership role for Kraftwerk, hope his all round skills keep him in with a shout for a top 10 finish.
I can't detect any "hidden mountains" to upset Schädlich in the TT.
Cav failed with a good leadout so expecting Haller to win the sprints with a rubbish one 
Thanks for all the hard work you are putting in cunego - great preview.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 01-02-2020 04:29
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
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Yet another race with minimal expectations. This is becoming a trend.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 01-02-2020 05:33
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World Champion
Posts: 10845
Joined: 29-10-2007
PCM$: 500.00
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Ah, California, good memories. 
This has to be a race for second, where Meintjes stands out slightly for liking the nature of stages 3, 4 and 6 compared to Amador.
Good luck to our former riders Bar, Kvist, Vogt, Rolland and Martin, and their teams!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 01-02-2020 08:49
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2907
Joined: 15-07-2007
PCM$: 300.00
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We haven't brought a single GC rider for this race, which is a shame.
I guess stage 3 and 4 are our only chances to get some points which we despirately need.
Thank you Cunego! |
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 01-02-2020 16:52
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Looking forward to this one. Pluchkin is the obvious favorite. Amador should be safe for a podium given the amount of time trialing. In theory he's the 2nd favorite, but if we take 3rd I'd be happy (allowing for a random surprise rider to end up in front of him).
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 01-02-2020 17:03
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
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Strong startlist, quite happy not to be here, thanks for taking up another long race Cunego, My team scouts will follow this from the VIP lounge
Top 2 should be the favourites, anyone’s guess who take the last podium.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 01-02-2020 23:44
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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Came here for stage wins, despite having a little dream seeing Pantano being up there fighting for a Top10, I see bringing Kip was the ideal choice and there's an opportunity for him to grab a stage win, Let's go!
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| ryant |
Posted on 02-02-2020 01:53
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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cio93 wrote:
Ah, California, good memories.
This has to be a race for second, where Meintjes stands out slightly for liking the nature of stages 3, 4 and 6 compared to Amador.
Good luck to our former riders Bar, Kvist, Vogt, Rolland and Martin, and their teams!
Glad you have confidence, because I dont
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-02-2020 06:53
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Just hoping for as many breakaways as possible here
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| MacC |
Posted on 03-02-2020 13:32
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Oh wow, close to pulling off a big win with Ford, but 3rd place is a good result and Cruz in top ten.
It's all about the time trials for Glanbia here unless Bennett can impose himself in a sprint |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-02-2020 14:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Two horrendous rides by Steensen in one day. You don't see that too often! Add that to a really terrible ride by Warbasse, and we're set up for a real hard part of the season...
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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