knockout wrote:
Don't really want to lead out myself with that again so has anybody noticed sth/someone that he thinks is suspicious?
It's been nearly 2,5 days of our ~4 days on the first game day and we have no discussion on any suspicisions / reads and we really need to get things rolling so here are my better town reads for now:
Spoiler
These town reads are stronger than everything i have regarding mafia reads right now
- Bikex only has the one post #23 but i like the tone of his post a lot.
- df_trek did those short messages as mafia too but i like to see how his opinion on some things seem to change in a very believable way.
(slightly less strong read) - sammys attempt to discuss the setup looks like a genuine attempt to improve his understanding of the situation. While that might not necessarily mean that he is also protown, I'm more confident in that allignment than most other players.
Do you agree / disagree? Who do you see as the most likely pro-town players? Who do you see as the most likely mafia members right now?
While I did the same last game and was town I'm genuinely not too sure we can put this as a pro town read personally. For me its fairly innocuous to ask a random question on how the game works and still not offer real discussion on reads and so forth. For me, you could easily do that as mafia.
It was more that it felt genuine to me than that i see discussing the setup or strength of power roles as protown. E.g post #44 by kandes might contentwise be rather similar but it doesnt give me the same protown vibes than sammys posts.
knockout wrote:
Seriously guys, look at the set-up again. Which investigative results do you expect to get after one night that it is worth giving up a discussion about suspects + lynch (our most valuable weapon against the mafia) for?
My original idea was not to give up discussion about suspects, just to enforce the idea that this doesn't have to mean someone has to be lynched.
knockout wrote:
Also: Possibility of night kill on investigative role.
I don't see how this has anything to do with the no-lynch discussion.
Strictly speaking the best result (speaking in odds of surviving the night for the town power roles) is we lynch a mafia by a 20% chance, which wouldn't change the nightly odds for any townie. Lynching a townie would even reduce the nightly odds as it reduces the pick list for the mafia.
knockout wrote:
When you now add the likelyhood of the different events it should be obvious that a no lynch in the hope for a positive result in the night is not worth it.
The odds of any of the events you listed may be low, but given there are plenty unlikely options one or the other might actually happen, if not in the first night then in a later one. Every night we reach enlarges the odds of getting useful information, while lynching someone without any actual information (especially at Day 1) just allows the mafia to hide behind the eager townies and bandwagon. To be honest, in the last two games I couldn't get the impression that the town was very good at getting some hints who was mafia by their day time behaviour.
The power roles of the town may not be very strong, but they are all we have got. So we should get the best use out of them.
knockout wrote:
Especially coupled with the opportunity to save themselves from the lynch by claiming late in the day if detective or tracker is on the lynching block. (would likely result in either the nightly strongman kill or a counter claim tomorrow) but we don't have to be extra cautious in fear of that
This argument seems a bit awkward to me. If I understand it right it basically says "If we try to lynch a town power role by mistake, it could claim its role to get saved (thus putting a big target sign on its chest for a strongman kill, probably even in night one so the role is of no use furthermore) and that's a reason why we should lynch someone."
Mod post
Was going to make the deadline 8am GMT on Tuesday, but since the majority of you might find it more comfortable to have days end in the evening (slash afternoon for Americans) I will make it 8pm GMT Tuesday instead (so in 45 hours)
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
knockout wrote:
Seriously guys, look at the set-up again. Which investigative results do you expect to get after one night that it is worth giving up a discussion about suspects + lynch (our most valuable weapon against the mafia) for?
My original idea was not to give up discussion about suspects, just to enforce the idea that this doesn't have to mean someone has to be lynched.
You have read how the previous games ran. Wouldnt you agree the ones with especially quiet ones have been more mafia dominated than the one with more active discussions about suspects?
knockout wrote:
Also: Possibility of night kill on investigative role.
I don't see how this has anything to do with the no-lynch discussion.
Strictly speaking the best result (speaking in odds of surviving the night for the town power roles) is we lynch a mafia by a 20% chance, which wouldn't change the nightly odds for any townie. Lynching a townie would even reduce the nightly odds as it reduces the pick list for the mafia.
The only argument for a no-lynch is to give our investigative roles more time to find sth, right? So the possibility of a night kill reduces the effectiveness of a no-lynch strategy.
On the other side, an active town gives the detective/doctor better ideas who to investigate and who might be framed. So with an active discussion (and maybe a correct, maybe an incorrect lynch) their job is made easier. And just as much as it is true for the mafia, it is also true for the detective/tracker: The pick list gets shorter, the likelyhood of finding sth increases.
knockout wrote:
When you now add the likelyhood of the different events it should be obvious that a no lynch in the hope for a positive result in the night is not worth it.
The odds of any of the events you listed may be low, but given there are plenty unlikely options one or the other might actually happen, if not in the first night then in a later one. Every night we reach enlarges the odds of getting useful information, while lynching someone without any actual information (especially at Day 1) just allows the mafia to hide behind the eager townies and bandwagon. To be honest, in the last two games I couldn't get the impression that the town was very good at getting some hints who was mafia by their day time behaviour.
The power roles of the town may not be very strong, but they are all we have got. So we should get the best use out of them.
But are those options better than the odds of finding a mafia already by "randomly" lynching someone without any input day 1? Day 1 lynching most likely doesnt remove the chance that the investigative roles find sth.
And i heavily disagree on the statement that the power roles "are all we have got": Our mind and the ability to interpret actions are a far more important weapon than whatever the limited power roles promise.
I dont think it's solely down to luck that the only game where we played without any investigative roles was one where we find a mafia member day 1. Because in many other games lots of people dont even seem to try finding someone: they dont want "to give up discussion about suspects, just to enforce the idea that this doesn't have to mean someone has to be lynched" or want to "stay idle for the time being" because nobody has said "I am mafia yet". We
knockout wrote:
Especially coupled with the opportunity to save themselves from the lynch by claiming late in the day if detective or tracker is on the lynching block. (would likely result in either the nightly strongman kill or a counter claim tomorrow) but we don't have to be extra cautious in fear of that
This argument seems a bit awkward to me. If I understand it right it basically says "If we try to lynch a town power role by mistake, it could claim its role to get saved (thus putting a big target sign on its chest for a strongman kill, probably even in night one so the role is of no use furthermore) and that's a reason why we should lynch someone."
It seems awkward because it is awkwards and it was the least important part of the post. It's basically trying to find sth positive in the worst case scenario.
But knowing the strongman ability might be gone can also be helpful because then the other investigative role or the politician can claim their role without having to fear the strongman as much as previously.
I could have added another reason: Don't you think that no-lynching helps the mafia because they nightkill some of the strongest players that are in this town?And keep the scumhunting to those that havent proven to be capable in it yet?
I am just going to throw it out there again, why do you keep insisting that finding innocent people is somehow not important? you completely ignored it when I told you that the first time. I am not sure why you're trying to half ass things, it honestly seems like an evil trying to help town but not really.
Ok, at the moment I don't see moves/analysis if not from few players...
There are 6 people that isn't posting from at least 48 hours, and the most of them were also online later. Obviously they can't be all mafia, but I'm expecting from them a bit of thoughs on what was written successively to their first post, that sounds just like a "here I'm" in a roll call...
I believe that there's at least a mafia member hidden among them, so my hope is that townies will meet my appeal to force mafia to follow the same, and maybe everyone can get some ideas.
After that we can write a more complete list on what we think about each other.
I am just going to throw it out there again, why do you keep insisting that finding innocent people is somehow not important? you completely ignored it when I told you that the first time. I am not sure why you're trying to half ass things, it honestly seems like an evil trying to help town but not really.
lynch knockout
Oh come on. If you want to use the power roles to confirm innocent people a mass claim on day 1 looks superior since you dont have to doubt it as much as later claims and you get up to four confirmed townies. The town seemed to be against it because they seem to overrate the power roles as our most valuable weapon to find mafia. Whatever you suggest seems like a weird middle way in between - not really getting the benefits of either.
And implying that i insist that finding innocent people is somehow not important is ridiculous considering that i literally tried to start a discussion yesterday about who looks innocent. Which you completely didnt participate in.
Sorry for my recent inactivity, I've been caught out with the flu and didn't want to infect the whole town so the Mafia wins by natural selection . I'm not feeling completely better yet so it will be difficult to contribute something noteworthy.
I am just going to throw it out there again, why do you keep insisting that finding innocent people is somehow not important? you completely ignored it when I told you that the first time. I am not sure why you're trying to half ass things, it honestly seems like an evil trying to help town but not really.
lynch knockout
Lynching Knockout seems like such a weird play here, sure, there's a chance he is mafia, and you have every right to suspect that he is, but at this point, he is the most active player and is the only person really making an effort to organise the town. There are a bunch of players sitting in silence or posting the bare minimum, while Knockout has already made a bunch of posts that can be analysed, can be compared to previous games, can be compared to other players and can force people to speak.
I might be keen to suspect or vote for him later, I might be decide to trust him, I don't know, but either way, right now generating activity so that we can analyse each player and force things to happen is going to do us way better than randomly lynching the most active player in the game because he's trying to start a discussion.
I really don't like how passive so many people are intent on playing this and to be honest we've seen this benefit the mafia in so many games that I can't help but find it happening once again just inexplicable and it's unfortunate because it makes me immediately lose some trust in anybody who just wants to wait it out. If you want an example of how badly this goes, read Mafia VII
For now, I'm voting to Lynch Jaxika, because as far as I'm aware he's the only player to not have posted and I want everybody posting at least, will probably flip it to some of the other less active players if he makes a good post. I know this is copying Sammy, but it's less of a vote and more of a "Hey, you need to start posting more" kinda vote.
Hey. Because its my first game in this format (forum game and none of my native languages ) i sit back for a time and just watch what peoples post.
Ill tried to see what is the logic behind the (longer) posts. As i feel now, clarly some Mafia members already posted and want to make fog about the things.
Strange, that (despite the licnh vote against me), i think who wants to avoid the everyday (or first day) lynch , are suspicious.
jaxika wrote:
Hey. Because its my first game in this format (forum game and none of my native languages ) i sit back for a time and just watch what peoples post.
Ill tried to see what is the logic behind the (longer) posts. As i feel now, clarly some Mafia members already posted and want to make fog about the things.
Strange, that (despite the licnh vote against me), i think who wants to avoid the everyday (or first day) lynch , are suspicious.
I think most mafia members are aware that no lynch might not be a good decision for the town or at least that it is not a popular direction. The natural reflex as a mafia member is trying to not stick out so i dont think a vocal defense of no lynch is a sign for a mafia member.
knockout wrote: My new replies are added in this color in between
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
[quote]knockout wrote:
Seriously guys, look at the set-up again. Which investigative results do you expect to get after one night that it is worth giving up a discussion about suspects + lynch (our most valuable weapon against the mafia) for?
My original idea was not to give up discussion about suspects, just to enforce the idea that this doesn't have to mean someone has to be lynched.
You have read how the previous games ran. Wouldnt you agree the ones with especially quiet ones have been more mafia dominated than the one with more active discussions about suspects?
In general, yes. Not if knockout and Croatia start fighting
Also I'm tempted to lynch quasdas for the sake of a useful discussion not distracted by a constant war between the positive parties. It's just annoying the way it's played atm.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
Yeah, I guess I really don't have any excuse for inactivity. I moved back into college this weekend, but I still had time last night. I think it's more that I just find the early game of the first day very pointless and boring at this point. We have the same arguments and talking points every time unless something crazy happens. You could probably find my opinions by going to the last five mafia games, and it'd be the same.
Anyway, here are my thoughts:
1. No mass claim on the first day, or second, or probably the third. I set it a couple of days ago, but it just creates targets before we have enough to go on, and the doctor can only protect one person even if somehow there are no counter claims. Eliminating power roles is more detrimental than the small chance we nab a mafia guy early imo. Drawback of course is that a later mass claim can't be verified as well if some people are dead, but the mafia would have to take that risk to make a false claim too. They don't know who they're killing either, as long as we keep it that way.
2. I'm not really in favor of lynching blindly on day one. It's not only that we could lynch wrong, but as someone else mentioned, it has also bit us the opposite way before with the coincidental mirrored posts a few games ago. When we got a mafia member, we veered onto the wrong track because we were analyzing stuff that wasn't there as incriminating. In my experience, I play the first day the same no matter if I'm mafia or town, so chances are even if we luckily find a mafia member, we're not going to gather the proper things from it, and it could put us in a hole. Not that it wouldn't help us numbers wise, it just makes us strategically vulnerable.
3. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have a discussion about suspects and really interrogate each other.
Quadsas gave me a weird vibe again, just because he attempts to speak from an authoritative view of the town when we're all in the dark.
Knockout is giving me a weird signal now though. He's always super in depth, helpful and suggestive, and this is no different. But his strategy of claiming power roles, but no what they are, actually seems more dangerous to me. It tells the mafia who the power roles are, vastly increasing their chances at killing someone important, just like a real massclaim. However, it doesn't tell the doctor who's who, making it easier for the mafia to kill the doctor or detective when they go through the power roles. Seems like an unfortunate middle ground to me, and the fact that knockout suggests it, while subtly reversing his overall opinion on claiming by the end of the post, is dubious to me.
I'm still not convinced enough to vote though.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
So, I wrote my thoughs about Sammy and Ryant yesterday and I want to add more name to the list, trying to improve the discussion on players, because I'm seeing too many impersonal post, and this seems isn't developing in something concrete.
- jaxika, despite i disagree something in his post, (in particular the bold part), I found positive his first post with some thoughts about others' actions.
jaxika wrote:
Hey. Because its my first game in this format (forum game and none of my native languages ) i sit back for a time and just watch what peoples post.
Ill tried to see what is the logic behind the (longer) posts. As i feel now, clarly some Mafia members already posted and want to make fog about the things.
Strange, that (despite the licnh vote against me), i think who wants to avoid the everyday (or first day) lynch , are suspicious.
I didn't know he is playing for first time on a forum, and I can understand his behaviour. About longer post at the moment I don't think that are making fog, just because I don't feel any track, so there isn't to much to cover with the fog...maybe we have to consider those more when we have some suspicious players.
About the bold part I majorly disagree because the players avoiding the lynch at the moment are quite a lot, and can't be a suggestive mark. [+T -M]
-Marcovdw: I don't like his post, because he just renew his presence saying absolutley nothing. Ok the flu, but in the way he wrote that, he could also try to argue a bit more, but the message looks like a "see you again next days!". [-T +M]
-Jseadog: he is playng first day like everytime before, regardless he was mafia or pro-town.
Just a thing about him that is not in the logic of the game: he was mafia last two times, being third in a row looks pretty unlikely, but this has nothing to do with this edition [50,1 T 49,9 M]
-Quadsas: playing aggressively like last edition, whit same arguments, this can somehow lead me to think he is in the same faction [+T -M]
-Knockout is covering the usual role to lead somehow the discussion, I disagree to cast a lynching vote against, but that doesn't mean that I feel he is more pro than mafia, just we need at the moment this to encurage the discussion [50T 50M]
I am just going to throw it out there again, why do you keep insisting that finding innocent people is somehow not important? you completely ignored it when I told you that the first time. I am not sure why you're trying to half ass things, it honestly seems like an evil trying to help town but not really.
lynch knockout
Lynching Knockout seems like such a weird play here, sure, there's a chance he is mafia, and you have every right to suspect that he is, but at this point, he is the most active player and is the only person really making an effort to organise the town. There are a bunch of players sitting in silence or posting the bare minimum, while Knockout has already made a bunch of posts that can be analysed, can be compared to previous games, can be compared to other players and can force people to speak.
I might be keen to suspect or vote for him later, I might be decide to trust him, I don't know, but either way, right now generating activity so that we can analyse each player and force things to happen is going to do us way better than randomly lynching the most active player in the game because he's trying to start a discussion.
I really don't like how passive so many people are intent on playing this and to be honest we've seen this benefit the mafia in so many games that I can't help but find it happening once again just inexplicable and it's unfortunate because it makes me immediately lose some trust in anybody who just wants to wait it out. If you want an example of how badly this goes, read Mafia VII
For now, I'm voting to Lynch Jaxika, because as far as I'm aware he's the only player to not have posted and I want everybody posting at least, will probably flip it to some of the other less active players if he makes a good post. I know this is copying Sammy, but it's less of a vote and more of a "Hey, you need to start posting more" kinda vote.
I feel positive atm to defend knockout and I read this more like a protown move, I agree almost the entire post, but now I'm curious to see what he will do with his vote. [+T - M]
-BBL: I agree with his 3 points, but not totally with the last part
Quadsas gave me a weird vibe again, just because he attempts to speak from an authoritative view of the town when we're all in the dark.
Knockout is giving me a weird signal now though. He's always super in depth, helpful and suggestive, and this is no different. But his strategy of claiming power roles, but no what they are, actually seems more dangerous to me. It tells the mafia who the power roles are, vastly increasing their chances at killing someone important, just like a real massclaim. However, it doesn't tell the doctor who's who, making it easier for the mafia to kill the doctor or detective when they go through the power roles. Seems like an unfortunate middle ground to me, and the fact that knockout suggests it, while subtly reversing his overall opinion on claiming by the end of the post, is dubious to me.
I wrote before about quadsas, while I found Knockout idea just an attempt at talk about an idea launched before, more to be open than to impose it. @BBL don't you? [50T 50M]
-Croatia: no arguments by him, I dislike this in particular because he actually posted something around, but just few short post whit questions, a lynch vote to an inactive player and a sensation that I disagree on Quadsas [-T +M]
-kandesbunzler26: I liked his first post but after that nothing really remarkable, atm I have no vibe about him, even because he never tried to start a though about someone in particular if not knockout [50T 50M]
-Hillis, Bikex, Waghlon: not recived yet (this isn't helping the town)
baseballlover312 wrote:
Knockout: But his strategy of claiming power roles, but no what they are, actually seems more dangerous to me. It tells the mafia who the power roles are, vastly increasing their chances at killing someone important, just like a real massclaim. However, it doesn't tell the doctor who's who, making it easier for the mafia to kill the doctor or detective when they go through the power roles. Seems like an unfortunate middle ground to me, and the fact that knockout suggests it, while subtly reversing his overall opinion on claiming by the end of the post, is dubious to me..
The thing is that a completely open roleclaim renders the doctor useless because the mafia can start by having the strongman take out the investigative role they fear more first without the doctor being able to defend that. Then they can take out the doctor since he cannot protect himself. However, with my power role / vanilla townie massclaim suggestion the mafia can not do ideal game planning and we have a higher chance of the doctor saving someone or both investigative roles surviving night 1 than a standard role massclaim. All these benefits while still confirming them as protown in case of no mafia power role claim.
Hope that shows you that this is no unfortunate middle ground and would actually benefit the town more than a role massclaim?
I dont mind explaining it further if that helps you speculating about my allignment but if it doesnt, id rather see the focus of the discussion shift back towards suspects / innocent now instead of the technicality of a proposed massclaim that wont happen.
df_Trek wrote:
- jaxika[:]
I didn't know he is playing for first time on a forum, and I can understand his behaviour. About longer post at the moment I don't think that are making fog, just because I don't feel any track, so there isn't to much to cover with the fog...maybe we have to consider those more when we have some suspicious players.
About the bold part I majorly disagree because the players avoiding the lynch at the moment are quite a lot, and can't be a suggestive mark. [+T -M]
Did you or anyone else whether jaxika was online before he posted? Because i feel like if he was online before then the fact that it took so long before posting for the first time might be a tiny indication that he could be town. Sounds weird but i think the mafia members would have told him to at least make a short post early to not get those "hasnt posted yet" votes that seem to be standard day 1 procedure in the last few games.
That said, even without that I'd agree with you that I wouldnt want to lynch him day 1 since i like this post. While fog might be the wrong word (since there isnt much happening that is to hide) i like his statement that the longer posts are worth looking into more. I'm leaning town on him
BBL was on my watchlist as I disliked how he played the day so far but in post #96 he addresses basically every concern I had about him so far without being prompted to do so. To be watched how he continues but no longer on the list of possible lynch targets for today.
. I'm not feeling completely better yet so it will be difficult to contribute something noteworthy.
