The idea is we find the town power roles so we know they aren't mafia, we are looking to narrow down the suspects without killing townies in the process.
@quadsas
Counter claims have the potential to buy the mafia 1 extra day, but that would be a 50/50 as to whether we get the power role or mafia member with our lynch, if we can't force a mistake out first.
If wrong they would be lynched the next day so giving themselves away.
We just have to hope they dont delay enough to out themselves in the favourite position, or we can force them into a mistake that reveals themselves before then
you don't lynch a counter claim of a 'powerful' role, that's not smart. you get rid of basic townie claims first, unless obviously all 3 mafia counter claim all the stronger roles which would be hilariously bad on mafia's part
I was waiting for a trekbmc post this morning, but there wasn't, and after all these "good intentions" from all of you, he is the one that I really have no idea on what he wants to do. So I lynch trekbmc, because, despite I can agree or not with some strategy, his situation is anything but clear.
The idea is we find the town power roles so we know they aren't mafia, we are looking to narrow down the suspects without killing townies in the process.
@quadsas
Counter claims have the potential to buy the mafia 1 extra day, but that would be a 50/50 as to whether we get the power role or mafia member with our lynch, if we can't force a mistake out first.
If wrong they would be lynched the next day so giving themselves away.
We just have to hope they dont delay enough to out themselves in the favourite position, or we can force them into a mistake that reveals themselves before then
you don't lynch a counter claim of a 'powerful' role, that's not smart. you get rid of basic townie claims first, unless obviously all 3 mafia counter claim all the stronger roles which would be hilariously bad on mafia's part
You don't want to lynch what essentially becomes a 50/50 choice to find a mafia member instead of the longer odds of finding one hiding in the normal townies?
Is that because you know that role will be kept alive by mafia as cover for their counter claim so when you can work out which one of the 2 it is you will have given the genuine claim more time to gather information through the nights that could help you find he missing hidden mafia?
Does what role gets counter claimed make any difference to this or not?
Sorry if these seem slightly strange questions but your reply is what made me think of it that way as opposed to an easy 50/50 shot at finding a mafia member.
Alright guys, sorry again for being late to post. I had a bad headache this morning (really was seeming like I would feel better today) but I feel well enough now to post my take on the game, please just have a tiny bit of respect for the fact that I'm writing this with a headache and being in generally bad shape.
I feel like yesterday wasn't as telling as people made out, there was a lot of sides to take and the confirmation that both Jandal and Marco are pro-town led to the argument of 'mafia lynching quadsas' that got Marco lynched not really getting us anywhere. Though I do find the posts suggesting that the doctor should've been on jandal a little odd, as ryant is the closest thing to a confirmed townie atm (pretty much 100% assuming somebody isn't playing this very very badly).
Otherwise, since it's hard to break down the game as such to any real degree here's my opinion on each member (order means nothing, just Knockout's one), btw I know there will be quite a few guys where I'm non-committal because the nature of this game is that you don't know, but I hope to give my impression of the game at least and state some opinions.
baseballlover312 - Seems to me like one of the more likely members of the town atm, calling out quadsas, contributing a lot and playing smart, I'm not ruling anything out after the game where he acted so well nobody ever suspected him (I'm sorry but that was too good ) but if I had to clear a couple players as town he would be one of them.
Croatia14 - No much to go on given he's been away. Generally seems to have good contributions but I don't like that he's been quick to focus on me with little basis. He's only been around for a little bit though so I guess I'll see more over the next couple days.
df_Trek - Probably one of the harder people for me to judge, as he was so focussed on quadsas that he's said a lot without actually contributing heaps outside of that. Seems to generally have good opinions for the town though, so I'm inclined to trust him.
hillis91 - Missing the first day is never great, but seems to be arguing against some ideas that would really help the mafia over the town, so while I want to wait a little longer to judge him, I think he's more likely than not an asset to the town.
jseadog1 - I'm not too sure what to make with a lot of his posts as a lot are relatively short posts compared to other players but at the very least they seem to be consistent with his posts from previous games, so I have to say that means he is more of a townie read for me at the moment at least.
quadsas - Frankly, his posts haven't really gotten us anywhere, and while I agree with people generally that he is one of the more likely bets to be a townie, he seems to be a negative for the town as a whole by causing a lot of confusion and focussing discussion onto himself.I'm an advocate of the idea that a townie who is hurting the town is just as dangerous for the town as a mafia member, I would be pretty happy to see him go tbh, but would also prefer to vote for people who I think are much more likely to be actual mafia members. Although I do have to admit that hillis' theory about the mafia 'offering him up' doesn't seem completely unlikely to me.
ryant - Not much to be said, he claimed politician while everybody was alive and nobody counter claimed, which would've been an obvious move because losing the politician to catch a mafia is a valuable trade (especially because it's easy to prove you're the real one by voting equally for the two claiments), so it's pretty much 100% that he's town.
sammyt93 - I like his large contributions but some of his arguments just seem so contrary to what's beneficial, he seems to be questioning ryant who seems almost completely confirmed. Also you are an advocate for revealing roles, which would simply lead to an easy strongman kill on the detective, followed by a doctor kill. Sure, we'd narrow the list of suspects (and that's only assuming the mafia doesn't counter claim) but it'd be at the the risk of losing all our potential leads, just simply not worth it at all! This makes him seem really suspicious to me, as it seems like he's using faulty logic to hurt the town.
TheManxMissile - He has been way to quiet for my taste, literally said "I'm staying well out of this early mud-slinging match" which seems like a mafia tactic to stay out of the limelight and also contrasts his prominence in other games when he has been town (and I've ended up in arguments with him ) This just seems suspicious to me, especially considering his biggest action so far has to be calling out ryant before backing down. Also, I'm pretty sure he's spelt quadsas' name wrong in a different way every time, and I don't know if it's intentional or not but I find it kinda hilarious.
I'm tempted to cast a vote for Sammy or quadsas, but I will cast a vote to Lynch TMM for now as he has been one of the lowest contributors, at the very least to have that discussion with you and give you a chance to respond.
This is probably the best analysis player-by-player seen so far, and I like it. I have also to say that I agree almost in its entirety. This was what actually was waiting from you.
Anyway I'm expecting there is at least a mafia member between people judged likely townie, but I logically want to start with most unsure ones. He got a narrow escape a while ago, but now that my ideas are supported, I lynch TMM
trekbmc wrote: sammyt93 - I like his large contributions but some of his arguments just seem so contrary to what's beneficial, he seems to be questioning ryant who seems almost completely confirmed. Also you are an advocate for revealing roles, which would simply lead to an easy strongman kill on the detective, followed by a doctor kill. Sure, we'd narrow the list of suspects (and that's only assuming the mafia doesn't counter claim) but it'd be at the the risk of losing all our potential leads, just simply not worth it at all! This makes him seem really suspicious to me, as it seems like he's using faulty logic to hurt the town.
I have backed up Ryant and was the first one to state that he was confirmed, I even called out the whole town stating that anyone who can't understand that needs to reread the game so far.
I'm questioning him because he is confirmed town, Quadsas has not been able to get through to the town, clearly I haven't either, so I called out Ryant to explain why he claimed his role early because it seemed like he is the only one that understood why it was important to do so and that he had cottoned on to the fact we have to try and win this game instead of trying not to lose it.
The fact he claimed was 100% the right thing to do, he put himself beyond doubt and now everyone agrees he is not mafia, we need the other roles to do the same but I can't find a way to make people realise this is the best tactic for us going forward.
There are 2 ways to play this game, you either hope the power roles find something important before they get night killed which seems to be the very passive way that the town wants to play, and plays into the mafia's hands, or you be proactive, get your roles claimed early so you narrow down the list of suspects.
That way the detective doesn't have the other power roles in his list of people to investigate, the tracker can follow someone who isn't a town power role to try and find the framer, yes the framer now knows that he has a smaller list of people to try and frame but the trade off is worth it.
The doctor should then try to save one of the other power roles who are confirmed, who he picks is a mind game against the mafia to try and save the right person unless they use their strongman kill or just simply go for him first seeing as he can't save himself.
But you are buying yourself 4 nights where, provided there are no counter claims, the mafia will have to take out the town power roles which means 4 chances to lynch the mafia out of a smaller pool of suspects.
Right now Ryant is confirmed Town, I am convinced Quadsas is a townie, I think df_trek is leaning the most town out of anyone else, the rest of the town I am not sure about, the town power roles claiming would narrow down the suspect list enough to a point we can win the game with good questioning and uniting behind the power roles votes before they get night killed.
Counter claims can only be done by the framer, otherwise the tracker would be able to find out which one is the real one easily (the counter claimer wouldn't be able to visit anyone whereas the actual role would) unless it is the tracker that gets counter claimed, in which case the framer would frame the legit tracker so both come up as mafia if investigated by the detective, which means 1 of the mafia has put themselves into a 50/50 situation which the town can exploit in the endgame if they claim their roles now and play correctly from now on.
sammyt93 wrote:
[quote]trekbmc wrote:
I have backed up Ryant and was the first one to state that he was confirmed, I even called out the whole town stating that anyone who can't understand that needs to reread the game so far.
I definitely misread the intent of one or two of your posts about ryant looking back and that's my bad, sorry.
sammyt93 wrote:
There are 2 ways to play this game, you either hope the power roles find something important before they get night killed which seems to be the very passive way that the town wants to play, and plays into the mafia's hands, or you be proactive, get your roles claimed early so you narrow down the list of suspects.
That way the detective doesn't have the other power roles in his list of people to investigate, the tracker can follow someone who isn't a town power role to try and find the framer, yes the framer now knows that he has a smaller list of people to try and frame but the trade off is worth it.
The doctor should then try to save one of the other power roles who are confirmed, who he picks is a mind game against the mafia to try and save the right person unless they use their strongman kill or just simply go for him first seeing as he can't save himself.
But you are buying yourself 4 nights where, provided there are no counter claims, the mafia will have to take out the town power roles which means 4 chances to lynch the mafia out of a smaller pool of suspects.
Right now Ryant is confirmed Town, I am convinced Quadsas is a townie, I think df_trek is leaning the most town out of anyone else, the rest of the town I am not sure about, the town power roles claiming would narrow down the suspect list enough to a point we can win the game with good questioning and uniting behind the power roles votes before they get night killed.
Counter claims can only be done by the framer, otherwise the tracker would be able to find out which one is the real one easily (the counter claimer wouldn't be able to visit anyone whereas the actual role would) unless it is the tracker that gets counter claimed, in which case the framer would frame the legit tracker so both come up as mafia if investigated by the detective, which means 1 of the mafia has put themselves into a 50/50 situation which the town can exploit in the endgame if they claim their roles now and play correctly from now on.
I have to say I really don't understand the logic here. It's really prone to the mafia abusing the role claims a lot, as you mention the framer can make counter claims. But other mafia could claim tracker, which would lead to a lot of confusion and mean any mafia could claim any power role. It could also lead to the tactic being less helpful if Marco or Jandal did have a power role.
However, the more dangerous aspect of your plan is that once all the town roles are revealed, they are literally sitting ducks. With the mafia strongman and the doctor being unable to self heal, we'd lose our two most powerful roles. So rather than having the chance for the detective to find a mafia or a smart doctor prediction to buy us more time, we'd be entirely reliant on getting the right lynches. Because even if we follow this whole strategy but still end up lynching a townie today, then the mafia can kill the detective and suddenly have 5 townies vs. 3 mafia, where we have to lynch correctly or we lose, it gets even more tricky if one of mafia does counter claim a power role.
Overall, that strategy just seems way too risky and completely beneficial to the mafia, as it's really prone to the mafia being smart with their claims and sacrifices our main advantage over them, power roles like the detective, who can literally find mafia, or the doctor, who can buy us more time if he makes a good prediction.
Okay, here's my personal opinions on debates going back a few pages.
I've always said that early role claims are not a good idea because they simply create targets on the backs of important townies before they've had a chance to actually do something. There are ways for roles like the detective and doctor to be effective without revealing themselves, and if they're ever under pressure for whatever reason, they can reveal it then to back themselves up. But once you're out, you're out for both us and the mafia. I understand df_trek's worry that a later role claim (including one on day 2) is illegitimate because it could be a mafia member claiming the role, risking that the original role is dead. That's a legitimate possibility of course, but I've found that's not something that happens much until very late, just because it's such a risky play.
For that reason, I definitely disagree with TMM on the politician claim. Sure, if someone counter claims you kill a known role, but then you get lynched pretty much immediately, and the politician is not important enough to make a 1 for 1 trade worth it imo. Plus, that scenario is an incredible risk without a bunch of townies already dead. I don't agree with ryant and I'll give you that it's not 100% confirmed he's town, but I'd put my money on it.
I tend to agree with Croatia's drawing of the battle lines here as well in regard to town factions. However, I generally think mafia members tend to present a mafia tell in specific instances of poor coordination, not general alliances. I'd be very surprised if anyone of those groups contained even two mafia to be honest. It's probably more likely one in each, or perhaps two, but definitely not all three.
I agree that inactivity is not a reason for a lynch, but I disagree with TMM that it is necessarily a smart move. Granted, it's better than one word posts to lynch, but for better or for worse, it simply draws suspicion and attention, and removes a voice from the discussion.
I also suspect Sammy quite a bit. As Croatia said, his posts are long and faux-analytical, but they seem to be summing up to defending quadsas without much merit except that he "drives discussion." In case, nobody has noticed, he's only driven it in the wrong direction! If any two members of the same group in Croatia's alignment are both mafia, I'd bet on it being them, though as I said, I'm not sure that's likely. Still, saying we can effectively win the game today if people reveal is absolutely ridiculous. The detective can win us the game today with literally 1 night read? The mafia could just strongman kill him and take away our leads tonight before they amount to anything.
I've probably said enough about quadsas, but he says that "ITS THE FUCKING POINT OF THE GAME TO KNOW WHAT ROLE EVERYONE HAS." Uhhh, no it isn't. The point is to kill the mafia. Of course, if you are mafia, knowing roles would help you win the game quite a bit. But claiming a detective who has had no time to gather information only puts him in danger. It does not put you closer to winning because, again, knowing roles is not the point of the game. If it was, everyone would say what they were immediately, and everyone would win, and we'd all skip towards the sunset together.
Finally, the jandal doctor situation was pretty hilarious. Quadsas pins me, marco and jandal as some sort of mafia coalition, then says "oops, if I'm wrong, doctor save jandal." The only way I can see this being a logical move is if quadsas is mafia, because he was extremely bombastic and confident about us being mafia before that post. So in my scenario, he knows marco is town obviously, but has run a lynch train on him day 1. That means that his advice will automatically apply. But he also probably suspects the doctor is someone that doesn't trust him. So he tells the doctor to save jandal, knowing that the doctor won't trust his advice, in order to get a couple of free kills early in the game, while making himself seem innocent. Or he genuinely thought the doctor would trust him, and he still gets a free lynch kill while getting even more allegiance - a more long term victory - and he got lucky that the doctor didn't trust him after all. Or they used the strongman to force the second kill and wipe out a known doctor round early so it isn't wasted. In any of those cases, his random change of tone at the end means something sinister in his motivations imo. It seems unlikely on paper because it's incredibly risky and aggressive, but that's how quadsas has been playing this entire game, so that's not surprising to me.
I am not changing my vote for now. I really don't get where this idea that quadsas is just a confused, zany town member is coming from, or how that is confirmed in any way. Just because no mafia member has played like this recently doesn't mean it isn't possible. It could be an intentional attempt to break the mold in order to solicit these exact responses of "he's a headache, but to crazy to be mafia." Therefore, I'm sticking to my guns.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
trekbmc wrote: TheManxMissile - He has been way to quiet for my taste, literally said "I'm staying well out of this early mud-slinging match" which seems like a mafia tactic to stay out of the limelight and also contrasts his prominence in other games when he has been town (and I've ended up in arguments with him ) This just seems suspicious to me, especially considering his biggest action so far has to be calling out ryant before backing down. Also, I'm pretty sure he's spelt quadsas' name wrong in a different way every time, and I don't know if it's intentional or not but I find it kinda hilarious.
I'm tempted to cast a vote for Sammy or quadsas, but I will cast a vote to Lynch TMM for now as he has been one of the lowest contributors, at the very least to have that discussion with you and give you a chance to respond.
You know, some of us adults have to work, cook, shop, clean, party hard etc. Just don't have time to get involved in hardcore shouting over nothing (and it was nothing because all that happened was a townie died and another got lynched).
And i've not played a game in what, 18months-2years? God don't base your assumptions on information that out of date!
I put a lynch on ryant because: someone questioned the politician call without the lynch votes and it got pretty much ignored by everyone. Slap a lynch vote onto a question and everyone will want to answer. And everyone did answer
Will in contribute more? Yes, onces there's lot less shouting. For now by the time i get online to make a post (once, maybe twice a day) the whole discussion has happened, exploded, calmed down, exploded again and then finished. Hard to contribute to that.
Plus i still stand by, it's only Day 2! After this night the power town roles will have some idea of where the game stands. Two tracks, two investigations, we could know where 4 people stand. Over 50% of the game will be known in some way. That's when things get interesting! And that's when claims made in posts start to matter, not just the wild guessing that lead to two innocent deaths.
And yes i've just defaulted to Quesadilla because i can actually remember how to spell that correctly.
In my eyes quadsas is being offered up by the Mafia. He is making a lot of noice, arguing and calling people stupid and so on. It's a great tactic by the Mafia, since they are 3 this time around. They offer up 1, and then the other 2 can sit back or at least 1 can argue with him, or vote for him in a lynching. Making it very hard for us to connect the remaning mafia members to him. Then, when he is gone. It's like a bomb went off and we have to start over again. But then, with less townies versus 2 mobsters.
We saw that last game, when a mobster got lynched, and another mobster voted as the second guy in on the vote.
That is also the reason for my lynch vote on quadsas. If he then turns out to be a mobster, we should also look into who voted for him as a potential mafia member.
If he turns out to be pro-town, we at least got rid of a guy who is more hung up on calling other players stupid rather then having a civilized discussion.
Im just going to leave this one here again.
And im standing by my lynch vote.
I want to interrupt this silence to add something that wasn't took in consideration until now, and i think it's better to debate it before to many people is dead.
imo the most useful claim for the city will be from one of the neighbours, but just in case the other one is dead, so he can reveal something that the city doesn't know, and can avoid misunderstandings of some dynamics (like links between couple of players acting with an accord). And this won't tell more of him and his role, remaining "safe" by night killers. But i repeat JUST IN CASE OF THE DEATH OF THE OTHER NEIGHBOUR AND NOT BEFORE. That's because if mafia hasn't a member between those two, will easly kill one of them like a powerful role among the townies.
Moreover a single neighbour is practically dispossessed of his role, so there's nothing more to hide...everything will come out from their relationship is just good for the city
df_Trek wrote:
I want to interrupt this silence to add something that wasn't took in consideration until now, and i think it's better to debate it before to many people is dead.
imo the most useful claim for the city will be from one of the neighbours, but just in case the other one is dead, so he can reveal something that the city doesn't know, and can avoid misunderstandings of some dynamics (like links between couple of players acting with an accord). And this won't tell more of him and his role, remaining "safe" by night killers. But i repeat JUST IN CASE OF THE DEATH OF THE OTHER NEIGHBOUR AND NOT BEFORE. That's because if mafia hasn't a member between those two, will easly kill one of them like a powerful role among the townies.
This may be me blatantly missing something but there is no neighbour in the game right?
Also: Two players will be randomly picked (regardless of their role/allignment) to be neighbours. They won't know their neighbours' allignment but will be able to talk with each other in a private chat. If targetted by a tracker they will not be seen visiting each other.
Role Descriptions:
(some roles have been updated/modified from previous editions)
Godfather - You are the godfather, and the first time you are checked by the detective, your alignment appears to be good. However, if you are checked a second time, your true alignment is revealed. You attend the mafia meetings. You win when the number of mafia players match the amount of Pro-Town players.
One-Shot Strongman – You are a strongman, and you can once activate your strongman ability during performing the factorial kill which will bypass protection from a doctor. You attend the mafia meetings. You win the game with the mafia, when the amount of mafias are equal to the amount of townies.
Framer - You are a framer, and you may chose to frame one player during the night, causing the target to investigate as Guilty to a detective. The effect only lasts for the current night. You attend the mafia meetings. You win when the number of mafia players match the amount of Pro-Town players.
Detective - You are detective, and are able to check one participant’s alignment (anti- or pro-town) every night. You win the game with the town, when all the members of the mafia has been lynched or killed.
Doctor - You are a doctor, and protect that player from a single kill made during that night. You can not protect yourself. You win the game with the town, when all the members of the mafia has been lynched or killed.
Tracker - You are a tracker, and can track a person to see who they visited/targetted but don't get to know the performed action. You win the game with the town, when all the members of the mafia has been lynched or killed.
Politician - You are like a normal townie but if you are part of a tied lynch vote, your vote will count more than a standard vote. You win the game with the town, when all the members of the mafia has been lynched or killed.
Townie - You are a townie, and have no special “powers” whatsoever. You win the game with the town, when all the members of the mafia has been lynched or killed.
Further Hosting Information / Rules
- Roughly 72 hours / day, roughly 24 hours / night.
- Exact deadlines will be announced at the start of the period.
- The Periods end at the announced time - even if i have not made the official end of day/night post yet.
- Tie Breaker in tied lynch votes is: "Random amongst people with tied votes" if the politician has not voted for either of the tied lynch candidates. It will not be announced whether the politician or a randomizer decided the lynched person.
- I will reveal the alignment of people that die, but not their exact role.
- I will reveal when a doctor saved a person but i wont reveal who was saved
- If you fail to make a single post on a game day you will get a warning. If it happens a second time you will be kicked out of the game. I try to find a replacement for the same player slot but if i cant find any, the player will be modkilled.
- Roles with night actions can submit their night actions in advance, set "default options" or change their previously submitted actions. I will use the most recently submitted action.
- The mafia will also have to decide who of them will do the factional night kill as with the introduction of the tracker that is important.
You're right indeed - well I'm not a neighbour obviously.
I also agree on the idea that we should only reveal it if one of the two is dead. Though, even then, it doesn't really help us, as if I understood it right, if not 1 neighbour is 100% sure of what the others alignment is and can reveal the thoughts of those to the public. Especially after a good townie is dead this would help us understanding and valuing his thoughts in a brighter light. Especially if he got a power role (btw.: one more reason to not reveal your role early if you are neighbour!!)
Absolutely, when one is dead you know his alignment and we know if thoughts were good or someway pointed to misleading. It's our task then understand if the alive neighbour is reliable, but from his disclosures the town will have a great amount of new points to evaluate, even if he potentially can be good or bad.
Croatia14 wrote:
You're right indeed - well I'm not a neighbour obviously.
I also agree on the idea that we should only reveal it if one of the two is dead. Though, even then, it doesn't really help us, as if I understood it right, if not 1 neighbour is 100% sure of what the others alignment is and can reveal the thoughts of those to the public. Especially after a good townie is dead this would help us understanding and valuing his thoughts in a brighter light. Especially if he got a power role (btw.: one more reason to not reveal your role early if you are neighbour!!)
again, there's absolutely zero reason to conceal your role if you have any interest in winning the game
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
