Croatia14 wrote:
@jseadog: but you realized that sammy is pro-town right? because then your argumentation doesn't make any sense anymore...
Correct. However... You 2 are not the masons. It's easy to jump on board with sammy because you being mafia (possibly) would have known that sammy was not mafia. You also would have known I was not mafia and jump on board with voting me.
Then taking out sammy at night, you could have realized that the target would have been put on me because I was against sammy. It's an effective way to get rid of an extra townie without doing the work yourself.
It's a blending in tactic that could be effective with the correct persuasion technique. I'm not confirming you are a mafia member but with my stance/position in the game it simply doesn't work when I say 'You have it all wrong.' There is no such thing as trust in mafia.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
a) I send my post after reading everything exactly 1 time - I honestly would've not been able to create this detailed plan as I was busy with non-daily stuff.
b) I did not refer to sammy but to kandesbunzler, as he gave the best reasoning at that point for lynching somebody in compliance with my thoughts. So the bandwagon would've been more on kandesbunzler than on sammy.
c) If you were a townie and I wanted one dead, WHY WOULDN'T I JUST HAVE LET HILLIS die? Both impulses of trusting him and masons exposing themselves came from me. Why would I have proposed such measures if I could've just played it safe if I would've been a mafia member?
In all honesty, with point c alone I don't really understand why I'm even in consideration to be the top target in the day time. Guys, please do rethink this matter.
Aquarius97 wrote (#87):
Are Masons really that important? I mean, with your "idea" mafia loses the terrorist in exchange for two townies at the very start of game. From 10/3 to 8/2 ratio and with two powerless mafia roles. I'd dare to say that it wouldn't be the smartest move by mafia...
This is the quote kandes used to depict Aquarius didn't want the masons revealed in my mind proves the opposite. He's speaking from (ironically) a mafia point of view where the mafia kills one mason and then bombs the other, bringing up the 2 for 1 that he references in the post. By this, he says that it would be 'bad' for the mafia to take this trade as the resulting mafia:town ratio is reduced and would make mafia's chances of winning lower than before. Therefore, Aquarius would have been in favour of the masons coming out all along (he never changed his mind). In fact the quote kandes brought up was in response to Sammy, who incidently argued masons shouldn't come out because of the 2 for 1 trade situation he imagined.
Therefore, kandes' not well thought out conclusions from the rest of the post should be discarded (I would rather he think Im not mafia for one...)
Now, in my opinion this is symptomatic of this town 'bandwagoning' on what they see as a mistake and then trying to shoehorn everything else that person does into an argument that said person is mafia - even if it doesn't really make sense. Now I'm not saying kandes is mafia from his misunderstanding here - Im assuming that English isn't his first language and that he simply mistook Aquarius' intentions of posting that message.
Knockout could still be mafia in my eyes (not lynching him as that would be me making my deathbed) as he instantly shut down Aquarius' last line of defence here:
Croatia14 wrote:
I don't like lynching Aquarius either - he stepped first on the wagon of masons showing themselves asap when no mainstream opinion was built, something I don't think he would've done this early if mafia.
as stated with hillis before I also tend towards trusting Aquarius.
I will change my vote from jseadog to df_trek if people believe that he is more suspicious and we could rescue Hillis and maybe Aquarius like this
Im not willing to use his masons post as a defense against him. That is exactly the kind of smart posts that i would have loved giving as a mafia with a reputation of being quite solid in the game. You dont really help the town with finding mafia, but you might still be seen as a contributer.
Masons showing themselves first day was perfect but without hillis as one of them i think i would have prefered a mid day 2 claim (if wanted i can explain on the next game day). I think having one more day to kill them before they reach the endgame is kinda favorable for the mafia without losing any claim town credit. So yeah i dont see it as a clear cut town post.
Is that post your only reason to trust him or is there much more against him? Its a very long list of players youd be willing to lynch instead and i dont see how so many appear more scummish than him.
I think i wont change my vote even when it would be Ian to go against him. Im quite happy to see Aquarius leading now. Not sure if ill be online for the deadline but ill try.
Also can you give me your analysis for Ian? I feel like i was pretty much the only to doubt him and now suddenly you come up with your statement, no analysis, just his bandwagon lynch vote
Id love to hear your case against the others but there is not much time but perhaps today your analysis against Ian and for Aquarius please? Or whoever youd see as your no.1 lynch target now to derail the vote.
Can be seen in two ways:
A) Knockout is pro town and just abruptly ignored any other people's logic (Croatia in this case) and 100% believed Aquarius is mafia by bringing up how he'd play the game as mafia.
B) Knockout is mafia and by deliberately dissuading others from believing Aquarius *could be town by using the masons defence (I for one believed it) and therefore sentencing him to the gallows essentially could make everyone's perception of knockout be pro-town, which is a good way for him to hide in plain sight. (I could use the same bullshit logic and say this is the way I'd play as mafia - but I wont )
Knockout is a perfect doctor target anyway so mafia wouldn't attack him so early - its his continued presence late game should be questioned if situation B is true.
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Croatia14 wrote:
Also I didn't like at all that he brought up the case of the doctor-theory, as responses would've only helped the mafia right here imo. While he may be a mafia member, I hope he is not for the sake of the organisation, but I consider him as one of my best bets being mafia right now. Still I'd give him another day & night due to stated reasons.
I'm quite convinced that it was the reason why sammy got nightkilled because it is basically the only reason for the kill that makes sense to me. if they hadnt noticed the posts then I'd agree with you that it was one that might be harming the town. However, i think its a convincing case. To quote BBL: "It can't just be negligence"
If they already noticed the posts then they dont have any benefit of it because it tells them nothing new. However, my post should stop players from using sammys opinions as a reason for false analysis like it already started (ryant #133)
Do I believe that he is/was indeed the doctor? This is the question that shouldnt be discussed imo.
sammyt93 wrote:
Hillis does seem very lynch happy which makes me believe he is likely mafia, surely a townie would want to lynch nobody right now as there is a chance the mafia take out the detective early in the nightly kills, I don't think it is wise for the town to randomly lynch this early as the detective wouldn't even have had time to make sure he is not the confused cop yet so if the town accidentally go to lynch him this early through a random guess it would be very bad for them as he would likely have to reveal himself to save himself and make him a massive target for the mafia.
I definitely think hillis needs investigating but don't want to randomly lynch anyone this early.
I'm generally following Knockout's advice which is to lynch early because it leads to player's having to defend themselves and ideas of who's willing to jump on the bandwagon as well as possibly outing a mafia or potential distraction in a suspicious player.
Also, many inactive players or possible more cunning players who have just posted very briefly once or twice to look out for as potential mafia.
This. There are four main ways to get an idea who could be part of the mafia:
1. the detective: It can be very useful but you will need some time until you know whether you are confused cop or detective. Especially when you will only get to see town members night-killed. Just ask marcovdw about this
2. bandwaggons: Analyzing who voted to lynch someone. If someone looks to be overly eager to lynch just anybody by simply jumping on bandwaggons chances are higher that he might be mafia.
3. argumentation: Pressure someone and see if his replies / actions make sense. If someone says A but does B he better has a good reason for it
4. night kill analysis: Analyse why someone might have been killed in the night. Only possible if there is enough material in the thread to base it on. (dangerous because it often leads to "mafia thinks that town thinks that mafia thinks etc" )
If we simply no-lynch every day at the beginning we rely on the detective (who may be night-killed by then) to get a mafia read. Which will be even more difficult as the godfather wouldnt show up.
By arguing to lynch someone early we get much more factors to analyze and give the detective a good read who might be worth to investigate. So imo, arguing to lynch early is a must. It's not bad if that leads to "lynch nobody" on the first day if who ever gets pressured looks less mafia-like after the discussion but at least it gives us something to work with for future days.
I feel I need to highlight this line I typed earlier as it seems knockout has either overlooked it or chosen to ignore it.
You're right. I overlooked it. Read through it while eating breakfast and must have missed this. Doesnt remove most of my doubts anyway.
We are 2 mafia kills and a lynch further down the game than when I first suggested the plan, in that time 3 townie's have died and no mafia, are you really trying to say that for the same amount of deaths we wouldn't be better off now with a detective that definitely knows he is not the cc? And with him having conformation of which way ryant is.
Yeah we would be better off if the detective (if he is still alive) knows definitely that he is not CC. Except, he would not know it if he investigated the same person three times without actively comparing the results with the cc. Why: Because there is a 37,5% chance that the CC will get a result even after 3 days that the detective could have gotten as well:
Day 1 read
Day 2 read
Day 3 read
Read on his own role:
Read on ryant:
1)
mafia
mafia
mafia
Detective
Mafia
2)
mafia
mafia
town
CC
unknown
3)
mafia
town
mafia
CC
unknown
4)
mafia
town
town
CC
unknown
5)
town
mafia
mafia
Detective
Godfather
6)
town
mafia
town
CC
unknown
7)
town
town
mafia
CC
unknown
8)
town
town
town
Detective
Town
All of them have the same propability (12,5 %).
(Table reposted from friday. This time with correct use of forum code)
As you can hopefully see the detective wouldnt know for sure what he is after giving up two precious days of investigations. And this is why i thought advising the detective to do exactly that sounds fishy as hell.
Picking ryant as the guy to investigate has nothing to do with it. I understand why you would pick him. I just think that the plan/advice/idea would have harmed the town a lot as it wastes the most important role we have and suggesting sth which looks like a good advice but in fact harms the town should be investigated.
I still think ryant could be the godfather and I have a gut feeling on who it could be if not but as it is only a gut feeling I don't want to talk that person out until I see more evidence than one seemingly throwaway comment that nobody else has picked up on, either through seeing how they Continue to interact afterwards, which they have gone quiet compared to other players which is suspicious but can't really be taken as evidence when we still have a few quiet players as that alone wouldn't set them out compared to the other quiet ones so mentioning hem at this point would look worse on me for calling hem out without enough evidence then I think it would on them. The other way I am hoping to find out is by how lynch voting goes and who they vote for when we are split and whether the person they made the throwaway comment about is town or mafia as that would be evidence to either support or enough evidence to dismiss my theory.
that'd why I haven't mentioned their name yet as I think doing so would be less beneficial until I have more evidence why as I didn't want them to think I am.on to them if I am right, and I don't feel I have enough confidence to name them and push for them to be lynched as if I am wrong I am sure I would be next one lynched meaning by saying something too soon I would be effectively bringing down 2 town members instead which I really don't want to do because that would jeopardise the town too much at this point.
I'm not a fan of this "that person" / "them" talk. Either you feel decently confident of it to mention the thought or you don't. While i understand that the mention of the names might ruin the chance to see them interact normally this whole part could be written as "I think it's ryant but i don't know" which doesnt help at all and is just there to appear like a longer explanation.
I could have said myself just the same but chose ryant because he had already put himself out there by making his claim and as I'm sure you are aware that unless I am mafia or a Mason, of which i am neither, the only role I could be 100% certain on at any time in the game, and especially so before events force people to make mistakes like your uncovering of trek in the last game, is my own so using myself I would not have learnt anything those 3 nights except who the detective is when he has the leads to unveil himself, and I would only allow the detective to prove my role as a townie instead of focusing those 3 days on the person I suspected to be most likely to be the godfather at that point.
That is one long sentence to say that you know you're town.
And I never said we can't do anything in the mean time, we could still have questioned hillis as we did but not actually lynch him, questioned tmm after his posts that made him suspicious to most and from those interactions and the mafia kill analysis we could still have got some insights.
I don't think we would get much interesting info out of this if basically all you say is "hey, i think this is odd. Can you explain this?" when everybody knows that you are not going to lynch them anyway.
And also: if you believe night kill analysis would provide interesting insights then please tell me what the night kills so far tell you?
Two examples from mafia V where i did post very valid thoughts that are benefitial to the town - imo quite similar to asking for a mason claim.
Also i find it quite hilarious that I was constantly questioned for "being too helpful" on day 1 (e.g. by ryant!) but I'm now questioned for not wanting to use Aquarius "helpful" post count as a town tell (by ryant!).
At that point imo still rather meaningless because lots of them were for inactivity reasons. The most interesting one is the hillis train because that one had picked up a lot of steam and because we know that it is a train on a townie. Ryant had previously left the waggon - it is very cherrypicked by me but quite interesting that the one that got the meaningless vote by confirmed mafia is leaving the most likely lynch waggon at that point. (it was an activity vote so it is justified but also voted for previously 0 vote knockout)
#78: jdog joins the hillis waggon. Imo more likely to be a town move but we'll get to that later.
#79: Aquarius votes trekbmc due to activity reasons. I still think it is a vote to stay away from any waggons and notably from one vote ryant to 0 vote trek. Staying off the waggons.
#84: BBL votes 0 mafia Aquarius with an imo convincing reason to do so. Certainly looks townish
#85: df_trek votes 0 vote ryant for not well explained reason. (previously croatia)
#86: No vote but my huge post strongly suggesting that i would vote for Aquarius (or Ian)
#89: ryant rejoins hillis wagon for the simple reason that knockout didnt want to see hillis lynched and basically downplayed his vote as much as possible. The timing is especially notable because the Aquarius train just started to pick up pace with bbl and me starting to push it stronger #91: MASON CLAIM MARCO AND HILLIS: #93: I following action on my words and voted Aquarius
#95: jseadog votes Aquarius (leaving Hillis train)
#99: ryant changes to no lynch (leaving hillis train)
#102: Ian Butler votes Aquarius (leaving hillis train)
#111: ryant votes df_trek. Explanation: so that Aquarius doesnt get lynched)
#113: kandesbunzler votes for 1 vote trekbmc. Reason: Inactivity
#117: Marco votes Aquarius 23 minutes before the deadline (previously: df_trek).
#123: df_trek votes Aquarius
Who speaks against lynching aquarius once the train starts picking up pace:
Croatia #103. Reason: mason claim support.
ryant #110: Reason: downplays suspicions because it is only because of the timing coincident. Also: mason claim post.
Basically just these two. Mafia members trying to help their mate? I think so.
A few more thoughts:
The hillis train: I think mafia members hate to be on an easy day 1 town waggon so I'd generally consider being on the hillis wagon at the point of the mason claim a bit of a town tell. Guys on that train at that point: trekbmc, Ian Butler, kanzler, jseadog, ryant. So bonus points for Ian Butler, kanzler and jseadog. I dont give trek credit because that vote remained there from right at the beginning due to his own inactivity. And i dont grant ryant bonus points because of rejumping on it right after the Aquarius train looked to grow.
The Aquarius train: there was a lot of contested action until the very end so i assume being relatively early on the Aquarius train a good town tell. Guys who voted for him:
knockout, Ian Butler, marco, bbl, jseadog, df_trek (order of marcos overview)
Personally i set the deadline at marcos vote because at the point it had to be obvious to everyone that aquarius gets lynched. So sorry df_trek you dont get any town credit points for your very very late vote.
So that leaves me with the following reads (BASED ON VOTE BEHAVIOUR):
(1000% super duper mega townies: marco, hillis, (sammyt)
townies: bbl, jseadog, Ian Butler
still more likely townie than the two top suspects: kanzler
unknown: df_trek, trekbmc
very suspicious: croatia, ryant,
100% mafia: Aquarius
I will try to make a post by post analysis of croatia and ryant if i find the time and if it is necessary to show you that i also believe they coordinated a couple of times
- both were trying to discredit me right from the beginning
- both were pushing the idea that asking for a mason claim is a town tell (which if accepted would give Aquarius, croatia and ryant town credit!)
- both argued strongly against an Aquarius lynch.
Lynch ryant
Why him over Croatia:
- that interaction between Aquarius and ryant day 1: there is no better place to randomly vote a fellow mafia member than day 1 because of inactivity
- every single ryant post is linked to me. Every time he votes the post is more about me. Sammy is dead but i guess he would have flashbacks to my mafia V flashbacks
- the switch back to hillis train is even more blatant
tl;dr: Aquarius, Croatia and ryant are the mafia trio
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
I think its way too early for ryant to cast a vote on himself if he were a townie. There is so much day left that he could have tried other persuasion techniques or turned the blame onto someone else.
At this point I would like to hear from the 3 people that did not vote. We have 2 masons on the same team at the moment and don't forget that ryant voted for himself and could easily switch to turn the tides making Croatia the #1 vote-getter.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
knockout wrote: The hillis train: I think mafia members hate to be on an easy day 1 town waggon so I'd generally consider being on the hillis wagon at the point of the mason claim a bit of a town tell. Guys on that train at that point: trekbmc, Ian Butler, kanzler, jseadog, ryant. So bonus points for Ian Butler, kanzler and jseadog. I dont give trek credit because that vote remained there from right at the beginning due to his own inactivity. And i dont grant ryant bonus points because of rejumping on it right after the Aquarius train looked to grow.
Rarely seen a lot of this bullshit in these few words. At this point it may be really better to lynch knockout, because he's playing the town right now, and people seem to fall to his tricks. I will refuse to vote on ryant, as I believe he's not mafia, and also I'm not. Everybody is handing it to the mafia at this point.
Also: can somebody please finally explain me why silent bandwagoning in the first round is better than just speaking about your own opinion? Also: you guys still ignoring obvious arguments? I know it's easy for the mafia but for the love of god at least pro-townies that voted for me please reconsider why you would do so...
Now I can't understand many illogical things...why this silence? Why three people has no put a vote yet after 72h? Why ryant lynching himself?
I have to deduce that everyone is ok with this situation, but how can be possible for ryant? And for ones with no lynch, why not lynch the first candidate if at the same time you are not changing anything? Fear to bandwagoning? You want a kill and clean hands?
df_Trek wrote:
Now I can't understand many illogical things...why this silence? Why three people has no put a vote yet after 72h? Why ryant lynching himself?
I have to deduce that everyone is ok with this situation, but how can be possible for ryant? And for ones with no lynch, why not lynch the first candidate if at the same time you are not changing anything? Fear to bandwagoning? You want a kill and clean hands?
There is one simple reason. Town thinks they got mafia guys framed, mafia knows they got townies framed -> everybody is happy but the framed townies
df_Trek wrote:
Now I can't understand many illogical things...why this silence? Why three people has no put a vote yet after 72h? Why ryant lynching himself?
I have to deduce that everyone is ok with this situation, but how can be possible for ryant? And for ones with no lynch, why not lynch the first candidate if at the same time you are not changing anything? Fear to bandwagoning? You want a kill and clean hands?
Silence from my side: I feel like i made a quite convincing case already that both are scummy and it looks like i get my wish and have one of them lynched. The only questions that would be worth replying to in the last 24h came from croatia and i didnt feel like i have to answer them because i wont be able to convince him that him and ryant are mafia anyway and while im spending way too much time on this game, Im not gonna write long posts for the sake of it when those i want to get lynched are getting lynched. If any of their questions demand an answer in your eyes please second them and im gonna take a look.
3 people without a vote: Ian hasnt been online in 24h and his posts suggested that he wanted to see Croatias explanation for Croatias read on Ian first. BBL looked to want to wait a bit before casting his vote but it looks like he is gonna join on ryant. Both of them are reasons i can understand and since they both indicated who they are looking at for their vote today Im fine with that. Trek apparently still pulls a the hobbit (reference to an old Big Brother game: gone for a while without an apparent reason).
Ryant lynching himself: I cant see a single reason why it would make sense for a townie to do that. If he were a townie Id expect to see his vote either on me because apparently I'm the root of all evil or on croatia as an attempt to save himself. As a mafia member the post could have or two interpretations imo: 1) some sort of mindgames where he is trying to look like the frustrated townie that has no more arguments 2) he has really given up the fight because he doesnt believe that he can derail the lynch to anyone other than Croatia
df_Trek wrote:
Now I can't understand many illogical things...why this silence? Why three people has no put a vote yet after 72h? Why ryant lynching himself?
I have to deduce that everyone is ok with this situation, but how can be possible for ryant? And for ones with no lynch, why not lynch the first candidate if at the same time you are not changing anything? Fear to bandwagoning? You want a kill and clean hands?
Silence from my side: I feel like i made a quite convincing case already that both are scummy and it looks like i get my wish and have one of them lynched. The only questions that would be worth replying to in the last 24h came from croatia and i didnt feel like i have to answer them because i wont be able to convince him that him and ryant are mafia anyway and while im spending way too much time on this game, Im not gonna write long posts for the sake of it when those i want to get lynched are getting lynched. If any of their questions demand an answer in your eyes please second them and im gonna take a look.
3 people without a vote: Ian hasnt been online in 24h and his posts suggested that he wanted to see Croatias explanation for Croatias read on Ian first. BBL looked to want to wait a bit before casting his vote but it looks like he is gonna join on ryant. Both of them are reasons i can understand and since they both indicated who they are looking at for their vote today Im fine with that. Trek apparently still pulls a the hobbit (reference to an old Big Brother game: gone for a while without an apparent reason).
Ryant lynching himself: I cant see a single reason why it would make sense for a townie to do that. If he were a townie Id expect to see his vote either on me because apparently I'm the root of all evil or on croatia as an attempt to save himself. As a mafia member the post could have or two interpretations imo: 1) some sort of mindgames where he is trying to look like the frustrated townie that has no more arguments 2) he has really given up the fight because he doesnt believe that he can derail the lynch to anyone other than Croatia
Or 3) He is hoping he can mask himself so someone else has 1 less vote than him and he can switch last second.
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Yeah, I wanted to see how things played out. I didn't have any initial hunches to steer the discussion, since my Aquarius crusade was based mistakenly on his alleged cahoots with Sammy over anything else.
Ryant was already the most suspicious and has not done himself any favors. Lynching himself? As knockout says, if he's actual town, he would be targeting those attacking him with a lynch vote at the very least. lynching a townie never helps the town. I could buy that he's just given up, but if you care about winning, you should always speak your mind until the end.
The Croatia stuff is certainly suspicious, particularly when he makes the argument "you guys are handing it to the mafia." It's the second day and nobody can make those kind of declarations with absolute certainty unless they are mafia defending themselves. Especially when we just lynched a mafia member on day one! In fact, I've made those same kind of statements as mafia before as a last ditch plea. Strange though, since his back isn't quite against the wall yet, that he'd say it. Could be random frustration. Still, covering so hard for ryant when they aren't masons, and neither could be a detective, could be a pretty big tell.
That being said, I'm tentatively going with ryant because with his latest antics, it's just hard to imagine he's your average townie with how he's acting. And if he had a greater role, you'd think he would have claimed it by now, and certainly wouldn't lynch himself. Unless something changes, he's my gut pick.
Lynch ryant
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
So if I'm not mistaken one more vote for ryant would be 6 and that's half. The day would end immediately after that? If you guys are that confident and want the day to end I will flip over my vote. I'm just not so sure right now but everyone else sounds to be confident.
I would hope Croatia is next though especially if ryant ends up to be mafia. If he ends up clean we might have a mess on our hands.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
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