Amazing job guys! I have already read it all, though this will clearly need another read or two to really read it fully
About my team, you guys are basically spot on with the "boring" season awaiting me, and as you said in your ranking predictions, mid-table is where we are suppoused to finish, not close to relegation fight or promotion fight.
Unlike last season, where Valls wiped out opposition in the CT mountains, we shouldn't see the teams getting many teams, and as i said recently in Skype, i struggle to see my team getting to even 5 wins all season, and i wouldn't be really surprised if we cannot get any wins all year.
But also remember that Kudus will only see Pluchkin and Uran scoring more than him of the climbers at the end of season. This is a risky prediction though
Quoting Abhishek
That is quite a fun situation to be in actually.
My leader aren't strong enough to consistently compete for wins, though Vanmarcke (who you do not mention) should be always up there in the cobbles, and depending on the route Kudus will fight for big places too, but there are barely any RD's where i don't have a team that will compete for Top10 places. I'm quite excited to see this new approach after last season's approach on one rider in one terrain
Anyway, i don't really want to promote this season, as my team is not ready yet. Kudus need a year of training to be a good rider too for PT, and also with his wage being quite high next year too probably, it wouldn't be ideal for a newly-promoted team. So next year i should have a lot of free cap in transfers, with Kudus getting a heavy wage-cut, Roelandts probably out after another decline, Dunbar also getting a lesser wage, so maybe around 400k in wages free to get another secondary leader and some extra cobbled depth for Vanmarcke, while also Roson, Rodriguez and Dunbar growing up a lot into solid domestiques with still some development yet to do
Speaking of Repsol (because Valls = Repsol)
He had to go because of budget/wage issues, and ironically ended up in Kulczyk, but i hope he'll be back in the team not too far from now, hopefully when he's still a good rider and not just my 7th rider in a mountain race
Amazing preview guys. I absolutely love the roundtable and seeing all of the different opinions and analysis. Awesome work.
Regarding Carlsberg not being a cobbles team without the real depth - I agree. In the past, I've had a cobbles team with all guys 70+, and to be honest, it hasn't helped. I don't think there's enough teamwork on cobbles in PCM to make it worth it. I thought super domestiques were more worth the trouble because they can actually score too. Plus guys like Pons are almost as useful for hilly cobbled races anyway. So overall it doesn't concern me too much.
Overall I definitely don't see my team as weaker than last year, though as you said, the back half has gotten stronger, and we haven't improved much. Hopefully we can avoid the relegation fight. Improving on last year at all would get us our top 15 goal, which would be phenomenal I don't see us in the top ten, but I'm glad that my team can at least have a guy on every terrain. Just makes every race more fun to follow.
Really ready to prove trek wrong about VSB being worse than Baugnies this year though.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Amazing job on this, it's incredible... and don't disagree with anything said about my team. Luke Keough is the most interesting addition, and hopefully with the right race-planning will be an effective scorer for us. Obviously race planning as a whole is massively important for an under-powered team with too many riders. Well that and a lot of luck.
The transfer season went mostly horribly wrong with none of our targets being obtained so the focus shifted to building the team down the road, even if that means going back to CT (with a stronger Eastman).
Edited by Kentaurus on 28-08-2018 19:55
A lot of work must have put into this and it`s nicely done.
Was a great read in the morning and I agree with a lot of this! Loved the looking back to 2017 the most actually as too less, we watch back to former predictions but the rankings itself, and hence going through the text of 2017 is really interesting.
Great preview, a very interesting read and a lot I agree with! Just what I needed to get my day started. One of the funniest things for me was how everyone believed Orange would end up at least top 2, the sure pick last year :-p
Heine wrote:
Great preview, a very interesting read and a lot I agree with! Just what I needed to get my day started. One of the funniest things for me was how everyone believed Orange would end up at least top 2, the sure pick last year :-p
Same as 1-2 seasons before with Meiji and UBS going down and were sure direct back to PT promotion candidates. And while UBS made it after 2 seasons, Meiji still is in PCT in the 3rd year now.
Great stuff like always! To answer your concerns, Gaviria and Van Asbroeck stay clear of each other mostly. Dall'Oste will join some breakaways and Waeytens will suck as usual.
Thanks guys for the awesome response - seeing not only the thanks and enjoyment but also the discussion this spurs (and much more to come as everyone finds time to read it, I look forward to many more days of discussion and debate!) is really awesome
I'll work through what we have in response myself over the next wee while and respond to some
Spoiler
@Marco - The old panic-buy without checking backups or past results, I've been there I am surprised I put you as relegating, perhaps it was out of my overrating of multiple scorers vs a beast like Uran and desire to not relegate myself! Luckily you're not spare on minor scorers of course with that old attacking Minions core, but not a lot of the 100-250 points scorers of Kulczyk et al.
@matt - Yes, we all love your depth, trek especially so , but another top guy in there would be another step towards the title. Not to say you can't without him - as I showed in my hasty prediction - and I do agree with your market commentary. It's a sad world out there!
Your A-team to Cyprus scares me a lot, but I also can't wait to see you wreak havoc. Some really awesome riders at your disposal, I wonder what tactics you'll play. Also, Theuns >>> Teunissen because Teunissen sucks and you know it
It doesn't really matter to me whether we win the title or not
This is just pathetic lying Matteo, come on!
@Vien - I never like writing less for certain teams, but when you have just four interesting scoring options at a push, it's a tough ask
@Booker & Oldfart - Those are two dream responses!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Oh man. Why Am I not a part of PCT? It would be amazing to read something about the team you have with such a work and time it took. That was an awesome job!
dominox wrote:
Oh man. Why Am I not a part of PCT? It would be amazing to read something about the team you have with such a work and time it took. That was an awesome job!
That leads us to the question, will we get this for the other divisions?
Back from work, time to catch up with some of the reactions. its awesome how positive your reaction is. Thanks a lot for that
matt17br wrote:
Holy shit, am I glad that this is happening again
Looking back at my prediction from last year, well that was embarrassing, especially seeing I was a lot closer in the PT and CT ones. Clearly a lot of surprises happened in the last season, both negative (us and Orange especially among the teams that were supposed to do best) and positive (well of course Isostar above all) ones but I still can't help but be ashamed at how many of those teams I completely got wrong.
About our own team, yes I do agree that normally this much depth is unjustified and it was probably a better short-term idea to just save the wages of 7-8 lieutenants to invest on a big name, but midway through the transfers I felt like 1) my team was good enough to be certain enough to promote and 2) there really was no one on the market I could reasonably afford that had the same resale value as all these riders combined, considering these could all be solid scorers in PCT and CT but not really relevant (for the most part) in PT. We've all seen how crazy high some prices went for some riders that would be lucky to top 30 this year's PCT standings.
It doesn't really matter to me whether we win the title or not (I've already mentioned that my gut feeling is that it won't happen) as long as we finally promote, and like someone mentioned here we're looking set for a smooth transition to the top division.
Quite a bit of pressure though to be predicted on top by everyone here (with trek indicating he loves Generali more than his own team ), gives me a confidence boost as well after I'd been the only one to see my own team at the top so far, at least among the predictions posted days before this one. Oh and to jandal, yes we're taking our A-team to Cyprus to wreck shit up.
Love all the work done here and it looks even more in depth than last year's analysis, which is a tough task. Will continue on reading everything over the next few days, thanks for all this guys.
EDIT: I find it interesting that we have a lower TT score overall compared to last year when I'd say the team not only has fewer rivals but also is stronger in that aspect for sure Same for cobbles, I'm convinced 78 cob Theuns can improve Teunissen/Taillefour's scoring easily. Not that I can complain about it or anything considering I'm still at the top of the rankings, just wanted to point it out
Fully agree. Those depth guys give you a lot of options for next transfers which could add a ton of value.
About your teams scores:
Those are very subjective and decided on the spot and im not sure if we might have used the scale a bit different to last year. I only gave you a 8 because while you obviously have a terrific TTT team you dont have the top individual time triallist which i rated as more important than the TTT squad. Im not sure anymore but i night have lowered the points by 1 due to the influx of prime TT guys like Coppel or Zmorka.
I cant remember the thought process behind the cobbles score but I'd say Teunissen and Taillefour might have been overrated last season instead of the other way round
whitejersey wrote:Smukulis, will stay I love the guy too much, 250k well spent, cheers Knockout.
Hope this clears up a lot of my hills mayhem, up. Thought such a high quality post, deserved a high quality answer
I dont want to fill the page too much with the long quote so just the important part. Love Smukulis and it hurt to sell him last year. Glad you're so happy with him after memeing about his price tag in the beginning
It was very interesting to read your thoughts about the squad and how the hill overdose happened. Certainly relatable as quite a few other managers happened to have similar experiences with their first renewals results. you'll learn from that and improve next time, I'm sure
roturn wrote:
Thanks a lot for this huge preview/discussion.
A lot of work must have put into this and it`s nicely done.
Was a great read in the morning and I agree with a lot of this! Loved the looking back to 2017 the most actually as too less, we watch back to former predictions but the rankings itself, and hence going through the text of 2017 is really interesting.
Thanks a lot. I wasnt sure whether people would be interested in that but to me it was one of the most interesting parts as well. I do think the format we use is much more made for actually reviewing some statements after the season than most other preview formats. Take your PT preview as an example. its very descriptiv as you are describing strengths and weaknesses that are true facts and that will be equally true at the end of the season. Obviously you sprinkle in your own opinion but in general your preview is more matter of fact while we make more more speculative predictions - especially in the part with questions about the whole division. Doesnt make one style better or worse but might make ours a bit more reviewable at the end of the season.
dominox wrote:
Oh man. Why Am I not a part of PCT? It would be amazing to read something about the team you have with such a work and time it took. That was an awesome job!
That leads us to the question, will we get this for the other divisions?
Nope. But you could have earned your spot in it if you didnt bid on Taaramae last season...
Finally getting around to responding to all of this. Other than saying thank you for the wonderful read, and can't wait to see how these predictions play out, I have a bone or two to pick (which I know you'll all relish the conflict )
trekbmc: I’m just going to say this, I don’t get the Kulczyk hype, I mean, I love the team itself, but I think aside from Baugnies (who’ll be up against Vanspeybrouck and Blythe), they don’t really have any points scorers, I mean, Valls and Penasa are nice (and I find it hilarious that Valls is there) but there are at least 15 better climbers, Barbin, Lavoine, Bennett, Mullen, Langeveld, all cool riders, who’d be excellent in CT and are pretty cool in PCT but how much are they scoring altogether? But to answer the actual question, I think that more cobbled guys behind Baugnies could’ve meant they got some more guys in on cobbled points, like Strava tended to do, I remember a few of their weaker cobblists scored past their means due to that and I think there’d be more potential scoring there than in their weaker climbers or sprinters, though it’s a tough call.
jandal: Interesting argument trek. I definitely see your point - Baugnies isn’t going to come 11th like 2016 in this field without the massively amazing Strava lads behind him, and they won’t touch on the depth scoring of Strava either. I guess their problem is maybe aside from Baugnies they have a host of 100-250 point scorers, but not enough meaty guaranteed top 30 scoring to life them away from any form of relegation fighting. The likes of Valls, Penasa, Mullen, Lavoine and Barbin. I think they’ll stay up due to that, but as much as I (like you) love the team, I can see your point, and as much as the depth can save them it can also doom them to the lower half of the table.
And yes, Valls and Penasa is just… weird!
To trek's point about Valls/Penasa as being below the top 15 climbers in the division - I'll just say we'll likely agree to disagree on this one. I'd say that Valls' backups and Penasa's acceleration safely boost them above a number of their peers. Now, that might be gold-tinted glasses, but I would wager that both of them will end up in the top 15 scoring. There are 25 riders at 79+ MT in the PCT, so I'll put them both in the top 60%. Particularly as Penasa has more race days, and can comfortably ride the ToA (spoiler alert), and duo with Valls in several races, I think the combination of the two of them will work very well over the season.
Re: the cobbled point - I had Senechal in mind, as a top 3 cobblist in the game would've been dominant at PCT level, but had to settle for Baugnies. Unfortunately, I'd also invested in Barbin by that point, which meant some of the top 'lieutenants' (with hills capabilities) such as Debasey, Benoot, and Gaday had gone well out of our price range. That left Langeveld as a pricier super domestique instead. I agree that his scoring will be very hit or miss, but Baugnies alone should be able to ride away from most competitors, given how PCM AI has treated cobbles in the past, where teammates are less useful in the latter stages of races.
Overall, I think jandal hits the nail on the head. We're pretty clearly a lower-mid to mid-table PCT team at this point with some strong depth scoring options. I don't think our Top 10 goal will be achieved, but I decided to ensure that most of the core would be around for a promotion push next season.
On a more nitpicky level, I have to say, I'm quite surprised with two ratings related to Kulczyk - DMTEX.
First, is Croatia's rating for hybrids, as a 1. That seems very strange, when we purposely went for riders who could compete on several terrains - Baugnies, Langeveld on the flats/hilly cobbles, Vanendert (hills + TT), Tzortzakis (leadout + TTT support), Kaczmarek as a catch-all domestique, and even Valls, with MT/HIL/TT capability.
Second is our general placement in the rankings, where I haven't even seen trek's yet (surely that won't be very good!) Overall, I feel we're rated quite low, but you guys have done much more thinking than I have. I can't give much evidence-backed reasoning behind this feeling, as that would require some serious effort (bow down to you 4). I also understand these are entirely subjective, but I'd just say that I sense just the teensiest bit of groupthink in the ratings I think there are 5-6 teams Kulczyk will score ahead of, that often appear above us in the final rankings.
Thoroughly enjoyed this, amazing work! Completely agree with the comments about my team, though I think McCarthy should be mentioned in the same breath as Kinoshita, Lutsenko and Ulissi rather than with the less complete puncheurs in terms of support stats
Would definitely taking going up anywhere between 2nd and 4th, and I agree with a lot of the comments made about teams in here. Kind of wish I don't promote now though so I can enjoy this roundtable next year as well
but I'd just say that I sense just the teensiest bit of groupthink in the ratings
None of us had ever seen the other rankings before submitting For me I put you a bit low, I think you could come where I say but could also be above - I think I've put you st the lower end of your variance.
Maybe Croatia had his methods when doing your ratings, but he's not had as much time as us with the DB or when doing the ratings as he's not at home (hence why he couldn't do most of this year's one)
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Thanks for the comment. As you correctly wrote id relish conflict (to use your words) about this. Praising the preview or the effort is appreciated but nicely written feedback why someone disagrees with points is equally nice and often even more interesting.
Booker wrote:
Finally getting around to responding to all of this. Other than saying thank you for the wonderful read, and can't wait to see how these predictions play out, I have a bone or two to pick (which I know you'll all relish the conflict )
Spoiler
trekbmc: I’m just going to say this, I don’t get the Kulczyk hype, I mean, I love the team itself, but I think aside from Baugnies (who’ll be up against Vanspeybrouck and Blythe), they don’t really have any points scorers, I mean, Valls and Penasa are nice (and I find it hilarious that Valls is there) but there are at least 15 better climbers, Barbin, Lavoine, Bennett, Mullen, Langeveld, all cool riders, who’d be excellent in CT and are pretty cool in PCT but how much are they scoring altogether? But to answer the actual question, I think that more cobbled guys behind Baugnies could’ve meant they got some more guys in on cobbled points, like Strava tended to do, I remember a few of their weaker cobblists scored past their means due to that and I think there’d be more potential scoring there than in their weaker climbers or sprinters, though it’s a tough call.
jandal: Interesting argument trek. I definitely see your point - Baugnies isn’t going to come 11th like 2016 in this field without the massively amazing Strava lads behind him, and they won’t touch on the depth scoring of Strava either. I guess their problem is maybe aside from Baugnies they have a host of 100-250 point scorers, but not enough meaty guaranteed top 30 scoring to life them away from any form of relegation fighting. The likes of Valls, Penasa, Mullen, Lavoine and Barbin. I think they’ll stay up due to that, but as much as I (like you) love the team, I can see your point, and as much as the depth can save them it can also doom them to the lower half of the table.
And yes, Valls and Penasa is just… weird!
To trek's point about Valls/Penasa as being below the top 15 climbers in the division - I'll just say we'll likely agree to disagree on this one. I'd say that Valls' backups and Penasa's acceleration safely boost them above a number of their peers. Now, that might be gold-tinted glasses, but I would wager that both of them will end up in the top 15 scoring. There are 25 riders at 79+ MT in the PCT, so I'll put them both in the top 60%. Particularly as Penasa has more race days, and can comfortably ride the ToA (spoiler alert), and duo with Valls in several races, I think the combination of the two of them will work very well over the season.
Pretty much agree with this. I said it for another question: I like the moves of your team a lot. I am convinced that both of your climbers will have a quite solid season ahead of them.
On a more nitpicky level, I have to say, I'm quite surprised with two ratings related to Kulczyk - DMTEX.
First, is Croatia's rating for hybrids, as a 1. That seems very strange, when we purposely went for riders who could compete on several terrains - Baugnies, Langeveld on the flats/hilly cobbles, Vanendert (hills + TT), Tzortzakis (leadout + TTT support), Kaczmarek as a catch-all domestique, and even Valls, with MT/HIL/TT capability.
We left the definition for the categories rather imprecise to allow each of us more freedom in how he grades it which leads to some differences between the grades. I dont know croatias thoughts behind the grades so i am giving another example: Jerome Coppel for Carrefour. The strongest TT rider and one of the best "hybrid skill sets" in the division. i gave them a 10 in TTs for him and only gave them a 4 in the hybrid category because his strength is already included in the TT category. Others gave them a smaller rating in TT and compensated that with a higher hybrid rating. (Theres probably also a small malus for their TTT team in some scores) Other example: Netia gets a 0 score in the mountains from me despite having Kwiatek. But his strength is already included in hill and hybrid scores.
I assume a similar reasoning might have been the reason for that score as e.g. Vanendert is solely seen as puncheur and therefore not included in the hybrid rating. Doesnt explain why his other scores arent higher though.
Second is our general placement in the rankings, where I haven't even seen trek's yet (surely that won't be very good!) Overall, I feel we're rated quite low, but you guys have done much more thinking than I have. I can't give much evidence-backed reasoning behind this feeling, as that would require some serious effort (bow down to you 4). I also understand these are entirely subjective, but I'd just say that I sense just the teensiest bit of groupthink in the ratings I think there are 5-6 teams Kulczyk will score ahead of, that often appear above us in the final rankings.
There is definitely some groupthink going on. All 5 of us have a preference for some group of riders that are not as highly rated by everyone else. E.g. youll see more hype from us for riders like LN Hansen than he is worth in points while a rider like Lavoine might be underrated by most of us. And of course previously discussed points often influence the ranking so last season we all rated Grieg much higher than everyone else while we all had Isostar way too low. Its not unlikely that the argument of being overhyped was there subconsciously.
Ive gotta admit that i did the final ranking quite quickly as the focus of this preview was strongly on the text pieces and because there was still a bit of formatting to he done and the deadline we set ourself to post this was coming closer. That said, the rankings are super close in the middle. I could have easily swapped you with Carrefour who are 11th in my ranking and it wouldnt look much more right or wrong to me. A single huge OP result like I've had in flat classics in the past could already be the difference between those two positions so i wouldnt read too much into that.
Thanks for your long comment again. Much appreciated!
jph- i disagree with you about mcCarthy belonging in the very first tier of pct puncheurs. He will be good this season and also get a win or two at some point but i cant see him match the other trio. Whether Ulissi belongs there is discussable but i see McCarthy together with Flügel, Aziz and whoever im forgetting right now as tier 1b or tier 2 or whatever you call it.
He had to go because of budget/wage issues, and ironically ended up in Kulczyk, but i hope he'll be back in the team not too far from now, hopefully when he's still a good rider and not just my 7th rider in a mountain race
I am surprised I put you as relegating, perhaps it was out of my overrating of multiple scorers vs a beast like Uran and desire to not relegate myself! Luckily you're not spare on minor scorers of course with that old attacking Minions core, but not a lot of the 100-250 points scorers of Kulczyk et al.
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