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Tour Down Under Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 21-08-2018 06:17
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The Tour Down Under got a new look really in 2018 with some changes to the route. Most important the Old Willunga Hill stage is back to the roots. Only one passing of the climb and the finish is on a flat section after the descent. No second time going up with an uphill finish. Does this change the GC? Yes, of course, it`s the most important stage GC wise and hence more or other riders will have a chance.
And also the other 2 "hill" stages were changed. The famous Corkscrew climb got extended a bit with a flat and a short low slope uphill section once they are over the steep Corkscrew. And by that change the rating also changed from hill to flat! Hard to say how puncheurs and sprinters will race this one now. In the past it was a first stage to seal the GC!
And also the Stirling stage got changed. From being a quite hilly flat rated stage to being rather flat with some bumps only and a semi flat sprinter stage with an short uphill final 2km, which might make it easier for sprinters to challenge the hill sprinters.
Last but not least, one big characteristic remains. This is a great race for punchy sprinters and hence the startlist is full of them. Those are about to challenge the pure puncheurs, that on paper will still be better if their attack is strong on Willunga. But in 2018 each after Willunga and Corkscrew the "dropped" riders have a chance to come back!
Impressively 5 riders of each 2016 and 2017 best performers are back in Australia for the season start. It`s a nice opportunity for many top puncheurs including last years winner  Schreurs, now riding for his new team Novatek though as Orange didn`t take him into PT and went big elsewhere. His win on Corkscrew opened the way for the 2017 title.
Runner up last year was  Froome, who also belongs to the very best in 2018 and actually the most consistent. 2nd in 2014, 3rd in 2016 and 2nd again in 2017, never missing more than 8s to the winner!
Similar can be said about  Gautier. 5th in 2014, 8th in 2016 and 4th in 2017!
 Ulissi definitely also need a mention as he combines the hill sprint the best of the favourites and as well did great in the past. 3rd in 2014, 4th in 2016 and 8th in 2017.
Impressive how those three challenged for the win in the very same years.
 McCarthy as last mention here as he is the home rider and one of the best puncheurs. A 5th in 2016 was his best GC so far.
So take a look over the full list of puncheurs:
| Hi | Sp | Acc | | Hi | Sp | Acc | | McCarthy | 81 | 65 | 74 |  Bellis | 78 | 74 | 75 | | Froome | 81 | 53 | 73 |  Caruso | 78 | 70 | 77 |  Anuar Aziz | 81 | 67 | 71 |  Quevedo | 78 | 65 | 75 | | Schreurs | 81 | 71 | 74 |  Levarlet | 78 | 62 | 66 | | Ulissi | 80 | 74 | 75 | Le Gac | 77 | 64 | 69 |  Waeytens | 80 | 66 | 73 |  Gougeard | 77 | 59 | 68 | | Klemme | 80 | 66 | 66 | Grippo | 77 | 66 | 69 | | Gautier | 80 | 68 | 77 | Moscon | 77 | 58 | 71 | | Bystrom | 79 | 68 | 76 |  Villella | 77 | 65 | 80 | | Barrio | 79 | 65 | 67 | Pellaud | 77 | 65 | 70 |  Prevar | 79 | 67 | 73 |  Yates | 77 | 75 | 80 |  Edmondson | 78 | 70 | 76 | Duchesne | 77 | 69 | 79 |  Palini | 78 | 68 | 74 |  Kadri | 76 | 74 | 78 |
As said, it`s a race, which often suited punchy sprinter as e.g. Kump, Ventoso, Gavazzi, Impey or Reimer proved in the past. Hence the top puncheurs might be challenged by the following list of less strong puncheurs but riders that are capable to get bonus seconds here and there, which will mix up the GC. Ulissi was already mentioned as he combines it the best. But also Bellis or Yates must be mentioned there.
| Hi | Sp | Acc | | Hi | Sp | Acc | | Alaphilippe | 73 | 77 | 77 | Pozdnyakov | 73 | 75 | 74 | | Favilli | 75 | 76 | 74 |  Torckler | 72 | 75 | 73 | | Yates | 77 | 75 | 80 | Ulissi | 80 | 74 | 75 |  Bole | 73 | 75 | 73 | Bellis | 78 | 74 | 75 | | Canola | 73 | 75 | 76 | Kadri | 76 | 74 | 78 |
And with on paper 5 flat rated stages, it`s obviously also a sprinter race! Though of those likely only 3 with a chance of 2 more are really sprinter friendly. Hence some hill skills come handy as well of course!
Home rider Ewan the big favourite in those and he has this skills to do well here. Fast sprint and able to pass the hills as well.
Goss and Vanderbiest follow as top sprinters while Roelandts, Holloway and Gaviria are other examples of being rather hill eligible sprinters.
| Sp | Acc | Hi | | Sp | Acc | Hi | | Ewan | 83 | 81 | 71 | Ulanowski | 80 | 77 | 58 | | Goss | 82 | 78 | 67 | Carsi | 80 | 82 | 55 | | Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 64 | Drapac | 80 | 79 | 53 | | Nelson | 81 | 81 | 60 | Gaviria | 79 | 82 | 71 | | Roelandts | 80 | 79 | 70 | Lander | 79 | 77 | 69 | | Holloway | 80 | 82 | 69 | Stepniak | 79 | 79 | 67 | | Moser | 80 | 79 | 67 | Peeters | 79 | 77 | 62 | | Stauff | 80 | 81 | 65 | Vanderaerden | 79 | 75 | 61 | | Guardini | 80 | 82 | 64 | Vingerling | 79 | 79 | 61 | | Nizzolo | 80 | 79 | 64 | Kreder | 78 | 80 | 70 | | Bouhanni | 80 | 77 | 63 |  Haussler | 78 | 73 | 68 |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-08-2018 06:24
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Great potential for some Aussie scoring here with McCarthy, Ewan, Nelson and Drapac. Really hoping for Delvaux with their cool squad, Edmondson for BNZ and Bole at Adastra to do well here! Could be a big race for T3A here also if Yates fires and Nelson-Ewan works. Thanks for a great preview roturn!
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Posted on 21-11-2024 23:55
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 21-08-2018 06:46
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A great opportunity to start the stage race season with a bang! Caruso has the Sprint to get something from the GC stages here if he stays up front during the attacks. I'm expecting something from him here. Le Gac can go for the Youth Classification. Moser is one of the better sprinters here so hopefully we see a train from him, Bouhanni, Vingerling and Lobato. Really looking forward to this!
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 21-08-2018 07:16
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Likely a race which won't yield us many points, if any at all. Best hope probably is an early attack from Prevar, or a break to survive on stage 6.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 21-08-2018 07:22
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I believe I have a strong squad here with Carsi on he sprints and Edmondson for the GC. Even though it’s not as hilly as usual I think the Brit can pull of a nice result here!!
Good luck everyone! Very strong start list!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-08-2018 09:15
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Good to see the reporters have learned not to mention Waeytens as an outsider anymore 
A good stage result and top 10 GC would be the goal here, and maybe see Gaviria beat Ewan at some point. Ulissi should win this race.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-08-2018 09:15
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Aussie time! Obviously rooting for McCarthy, Goss and also Ewan. Promising setup for Australian cycling here and I guess we ALL would have some love for those guys to deliver on home soil 
Not sure though, how hard the hilly stage will be raced. Hoping for the puncheurs to fight for the GC, but I'm really not sure how selective this day will be.
Also stunned to follow Mitchelton - Cobra9 in action now. Obviously just here to make up numbers, but as our home race, it's certainly a special event for our rather short season. The minimum goal must be breakaways, since there's no real puncheur in our team. Jones won't be a factor in the sprints neither, so just try to show our colors, guys!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-08-2018 09:58
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I know this are not profiles to Drapac's liking but with racedays left after planning to every pancake flat race I thought it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world to bring him to his home race. Quevedo could also do something in the GC if he wants.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 21-08-2018 10:19
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Classics Specialist
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I'm setting the bar too low for this race - solid stage finishes is all I want from my riders plus some points here and there. My first big test would be in Venezuela
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| matt17br |
Posted on 21-08-2018 10:20
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Think I'm gonna regret sending Ulissi here. The profiles are sinoly not hard enough for a lot of selection to happen, and he's proven time and time again that he might as well be 60 sp considering his no-shows in sprints. Interesting that the field is still pretty strong though, didn't expect to see so many top puncheurs in here, definitely thought that some other managers would refrain from sending their leaders this year.
No idea who could win this this year, maybe it's the year of an actual sprinter. Thanks for the preview roturn, feels like this race is reported by you every year
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| Vien |
Posted on 21-08-2018 10:53
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Not a race we've decided to join, especially the removal of a MTF made this race too much of a lottery to me. Heck, I could even see a sprinter winning this. Still looking forward to follow how the other PCT teams, and certainly my fellow regelation contenders, will be doing. |
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 21-08-2018 10:58
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Much better startlist than I had hoped for Kreder, Kadri and Favilli will all be pretty far down on the list of favorites, but hopefully we can get some good stage results and, with a bit of luck, a decent GC result.
Will be interesting to see how Kadri and Favilli fares against PCT level competition. We will have to do more hilly C1 races later in the season, so this will be a good indication of whether we can expect to pick up points from those races or not.
Tour Down Under is always a fun race to follow, so very much looking forward to the reports!
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 21-08-2018 11:20
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Route change or not let's see if we can keep up just missing the win here. Historically we have never had a bad TdU, so I am confident that we can do well here. Also interested to see how the dual leadership will work with the AI, but as a safety measure I made the decision to avoid it as much as I could, just not here.
Let's go!
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| roturn |
Posted on 21-08-2018 11:22
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matt17br wrote:
No idea who could win this this year, maybe it's the year of an actual sprinter. Thanks for the preview roturn, feels like this race is reported by you every year
Well, last time I did not report it, Allan Davis won the stage and GC and long time retired Oscar Freire also was top10 GC. 
Probably not even a reporter back then as it was my first season in the MG.
But yes, a race I really like in PCM and hence enjoy claiming. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-08-2018 11:24
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roturn wrote:
matt17br wrote:
No idea who could win this this year, maybe it's the year of an actual sprinter. Thanks for the preview roturn, feels like this race is reported by you every year
Well, last time I did not report it, Allan Davis won the stage and GC and long time retired Oscar Freire also was top10 GC.
Probably not even a reporter back then as it was my first season in the MG.
But yes, a race I really like in PCM and hence enjoy claiming.
It's ironic in a way, that I never came to report this Australian stage race since Oz Cycling moved up to the ProTour 
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 21-08-2018 12:12
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No idea what to make of this race really; AA and Goss both riding will lead to some interesting AI decisions I have no idea what’ll happen here. So y’know, just like, go out there and uh, ride those bikes hard
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 21-08-2018 12:47
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Just praying this isnt going to be a 0 pointer
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 21-08-2018 13:09
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Great preview roturn!
First chance for Bystrom to show his abilities. We are looking for a GC Top10 with him, and some depth points with either Duchesne, Levarlet or Barrio. The route is strange this year, without the Willunga Hill top finish, and with Bystrom sprint being not too bad, if the hard stage come down to a reduced sprint, he could have a shot at a great result.
For the sprint we have Roelandts, who seeing the sprinting field, should have a shot at a stage podium, which would make his presence worthy.
My bet is Ulissi ftw
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 21-08-2018 13:14
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Went here with Gautiers great track record in mind, didn't really notice the route changes until now though 
Another GC top 10 from Gautier would be great for me as a CT team.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 21-08-2018 13:30
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Lovely to be back here with the brand new Risa-Ergon squad! Can't really have any expectations for any results, but hope to see the guys in the break on a couple of stages. Would be surprised if Giacoppo/Jørgensen actually sprints, but a top 10 on a stage would be pretty great if we can achieve that.
As always, this is Ulissi's race to lose - as he have a habit of doing...
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