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Final CT Rankings 2017
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 29-04-2018 11:02
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Congrats to all directly promoted teams and WCC in particular. You gotta love Scorchio's (pre and post race) analysis and it's certainly been a great comeback campaign since last season's late entry. Surely one of the most thrilling teams to watch next season. The same goes for the other teams, too, of course. Happy to see In-n-Out going up with this team and also the first-year teams, which did so well in the off-season. Team Reddit's late season run was just sick: Monfort deserves something big at the team's HQ, I guess 
Having done quite a bit of the reports for the CT, I must say, that I definitely enjoyed this year's CT class of managers. Of course some guys got lost throughout the season, but overall, we've had some great additions to the MG this season. As for those long-term members, who might struggle to keep their heads high: just keep trying and things will only get better from now on! I'm looking at you, Garmin and Eddie Stobart
Thanks to all active managers, who contributed to the game. It's been a pleasure to be a part of it, in a certain way.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 29-04-2018 11:34
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Happy to see our friends at Reddit promoting after taking good care of Kaislavuo and Anacona.
Also a congratulations to all who didn't promote as you will have the pleasure of Finnish company next season.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 29-04-2018 11:37
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks to every reporter, who have had reported races etc. the entire season. 10th place is pretty damn good. Especially considering how we got screwed in Britain. Hopefully we will be back stronger next year. Congrats to all the promoted teams, well deserved!
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| Djordje96 |
Posted on 29-04-2018 14:10
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Stagiare
Posts: 171
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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A very bad season for The Balkan Cycling Project. Some changes will happen...
I would ask all the people from the Balkan to contact me so that we can create our community.
List of Balkan countries:
- Albania
- Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Bulgaria
- Croatia
- Greece
- Kosovo
- Macedonia
- Montenegro
- Romania
- Serbia
- Slovenia
- Turkey
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| roturn |
Posted on 29-04-2018 14:18
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Team Manager
Posts: 22246
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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Djordje96 wrote:
A very bad season for The Balkan Cycling Project. Some changes will happen...
Well, having 2 discussion thread posts in regular races over the full season, seems to need a change indeed I guess. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 20:40
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-04-2018 17:38
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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I wanted to go through some of them teams a bit to check myself how bad my predictions where in terms of individual riders and this post is a bit of a byproduct. when i am talking about riders exceeding/failing expectations, I'm mostly refering to what I assumed as their 2017 production in my preview
First of all congrats to WCC. It has been a terrific, well planned season for Scorchio. 4 riders in the top 20 is incredible and I'm not sure if that was achieved previously already. Predictions varied a bit between the different promotion spots but I had them down as a sure promoter and one of the closest challengers for In-n-Out and the key to beating them was to have Boily, Harrison and Castaneda all outperform their expectations by about 100 points each.
In-n-Out was the clear cut title favourite in most predictions and also in mine. Their leaders matched expectations while a couple of depth guys scored a bit less than expected. Guess in hindsight it's more that i overrated how many points some of the lesser riders(particularly Kruopis but also Kreuziger or Bercz) would score than actually underperforming. With the decline of a couple of key riders (van der Hurenhaben, Kreus, Kreuziger) they will have quite a rebuild to do to survive in PCT.
Kulczyk was a nearly unanimously promotion pick and i think they were a very interesting team to follow. Vichot and to a lesser degree Havik outperformed my expectations while Mullen and Bennett could have done better.
Philips - Pro Continental has been one of my favourite teams. I predicted them fourth like a couple of other predictors with a couple slightly lower predictions and eventhough many riders performed quite different then i guessed (Krieger more due to his late season GC result, Wyss even above expectations, overrating Grabovski ...) i'd say that the ranking position wasn't achieved by overperformances but because of higher individual rider variance for teams with such a good depth. Can't wait to see what the team will do in PCT.
Reddit is the one promoting team that absolutely surprised me (my prediction: 8th although more likely to finish lower than higher). Despite good previous seasons I absolutely underrated Maxime Monfort. After scoring 294 points in 2017 I expected his point scoring to go further down and estimated a point scoring of ca. 175 points. A clear sign of me underrating him but he also overperformed a lot imo. For me them finishing top 5 is the surprise of the season.
Great to see Xero promoting too. Despite somehow correctly predicting them finishing 6th i failed quite horribly with the evaluation of individual riders. Absolutely didnt see the huge season by Roux coming - in hindsight, probably because of a horrible 2017 season. I also overrated all three of their good climbers. I like jandals starting situation for next season a lot as they have good lieutenants & depth in place already and only need to add new leaders.
Azteca's predictions previous to the season have been quite strange ranging from title contender to 8th. Chaves had an excellent season. Eastman stayed slightly below expectations although i don't think that is really down to bad luck but due to not optimal race planning and being overrated in the first place (attention: controversial opinion).
A good season by Repsol retirement homes. They risked quite a lot in an attempt to promote immediately and signed a lot of aging riders already in their declines but they will be rewarded with disband promotion thanks to a blazing Valls. It will be interesting to see how they will act in transfers as they will likely leave renewals with less riders than Evonik due to retirements or new evaluations after declines. I hope Aquarius is prepared for a busy transfer window.
CycleYorkshire is the negative suprise for me. I saw them as one of the seven teams that would contest for direct promotion spots. I think they have been screwed over by the calendar who didnt offer much for rider as versatile as Tvetcov and Dennis. I feel like all their leaders underperformed but i probaly also overrated them in the first place.
To all finishing below that, don't worry. Many teams have done the quick turnaround and as you can see from the many first year teams at the top you see how quickly one get near the top spots in CT. Some of you have an excellent position to attack the direct promotion spots already.
A few more thoughts about some former Evonik guys:
- Chavanne has been disappointing this season. Perhaps he needs to return to his former loan destination...
- I'm super surprised that Flaksis only scored 14 points this season. He seemed to be quite active this season and i enjoyed him participating in several attacks.
- Geschke outside the top 150 in CT rankings. Jeeeeez
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 29-04-2018 17:46
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3591
Joined: 18-03-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Have to be honest, I haven't really followed this years CT that much, but congrats to the promoting teams.
Awesome now to have 3 polish teams in the PCT next season, oh man really strong, as when I and trek joined the MG there were only 1 polish team. Congrats Booker!
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 29-04-2018 17:49
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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knockout wrote:
- I'm super surprised that Flaksis only scored 14 points this season. He seemed to be quite active this season and i enjoyed him participating in several attacks.
My thought excactly. He was agressive during the season but he actually on scored in Lillestrom.. Seeing out the cobbled season went I have no doubt that betting on a cobbled specialist that can sprint well is the best option, just look at Harrison 
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-04-2018 18:20
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Earlier in the season I made prediction correlation updates. I lacked a bit of time and realized that it would be quite pointless to update that every update but here is the final CT prediction correlation ranking:
Spoiler Minor predictions (brighter blue) included because i think it is interesting to see e.g.
- which of SNs formulas does best
- whether my adjustments improve the Pure-OVR predictions
- if Abhishek picked the better one of History-based / coefficient based as main prediction
Congrats to Vien for the most accurate CT prediction!
Predicting Repsol to finish far higher than most other prediction has been his best call imo but he tops the table because his lower half predictions have been very accurate.
It might be rather obvious but the median/average predictions are very accurate as well.
Not sure why i included the development of the various updates. I needed the data to see when ranking updates start to be more accurate than the pre-season predictions and left that in the picture above. Take from it what you think.
The correlation of the different ranking updates:
| Correlation | Update | | 0,6017 | #1 | | 0,7673 | #2 | | 0,8849 | #3 | | 0,8920 | #4 | | 0,9137 | #5 | | 0,9257 | #6 | | 0,9536 | #7 | | 0,9866 | #8 | | 0,9994 | #9 |
Ranking updates started to be somewhat accurate at the end of march update but it took until the sixth update that they were more accurate then Viens prediction. Perhaps we should be more cautious before changing our predictions one or two months into the season... 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Vien |
Posted on 29-04-2018 19:10
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Yayy, I'm a prediction God  Thanks for the update knockout
Repsol was the only team I really thought about, most other correct predictions were just lucky. Sad scores for the people who spent hours making statistical predictions though. I really hope people will keep tweaking them for next season! |
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| Booker |
Posted on 29-04-2018 19:25
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 875
Joined: 03-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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sgdanny wrote:
Have to be honest, I haven't really followed this years CT that much, but congrats to the promoting teams.
Awesome now to have 3 polish teams in the PCT next season, oh man really strong, as when I and trek joined the MG there were only 1 polish team. Congrats Booker!
Going to be a polka-, kielbasa- and pierogi-filled PCT next year! 
Cheers for the congrats sgdanny, can't wait for 2018 
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| ryant |
Posted on 29-04-2018 20:44
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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This season has been a waste of space really. We were missing that one extra points scorer which would have grabbed us promotion - which we already had, but a "terrible" calendar to say the least screwed us tremendously. I mean, we had some other underwhelming races but the erosion of Tvetcov's point scoring capacity and the influx of shit one hit wonders like Suaza, Kransoperov etc made promotion impossible. :/
Thanks to tsmoha and the other reporters for this season, it seemed to go by quite quickly and smoothly, great job!!!
Oh well, maybe next year? Maybe there will be Stage races with hills AND mountains??? Nah, that would be too much to ask...
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-04-2018 20:50
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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ryant wrote:
Oh well, maybe next year? Maybe there will be Stage races with hills AND mountains??? Nah, that would be too much to ask...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-04-2018 20:57
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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With posts like that, makes it tempting to not bother changing the calendar
Quite possible that at least 9 CT teams go up anyway, we're already up to 8.
Edit: Actually, we are up to 9 already. (Pendletons, Strava, P:A, Eritel)
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:10
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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This!
And to be fair, ryant: I'm pretty sure we all knew the calendar prior to the transfer season It's not like you were forced to rely on Tvetcov as your promotion securing points scorer. Well, looking at SN's post: maybe the PCT calendar will suit you better
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:16
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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Wait, when was Eritel disbanding confirmed?
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:21
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....st_1289189
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:24
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 300.00
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I think that there could be 10 or even 11 teams promoting at the end, as Gazelle's manager hasn't been online for more than 3 months, same as Matt with Generali
Edited by Aquarius97 on 29-04-2018 23:46
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:24
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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12th is below what we were aiming for going into the season and shows that we probably need quite a rebuild to contest automatic promotion next year.
The hill depth we have didn't translate well into points, and we need a stronger leader to capitalise from what would be a strong support cast, and Grand only putting up roughly 50 points is disappointing considering we were hoping for around 100 from him as our second strong leader, he definitely had a disappointing year.
Chavanne getting roughly 100 points is nice though, shame he missed out on one prologue win along the way, and I could have planned a couple more prologues into his calendar instead of some of our low or 0 point scoring races.
On the positive side it is nice to have the best sprinter in the division in Salleh and having him just edge out the million dollar man Haller was amazing, he's backed up his previous claim to being our best rider and the team leader well this season, only thing missing is getting him a home stage win in Langkawi which he missed out on for a second season and is yet to achieve.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 29-04-2018 21:32
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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Aquarius97 wrote:
I think that there could be 10 or even 11 teams promoting at the end, as Gazelle's manager hasn't been online for more than 3 teams, same as Matt with Generali
*3 months
I was gonna mention that.. Matt's case is yet to be resolved, and somebody should try to contact DubbelDekker as soon as possible.
This could lead to an immense revolution in PCT and CT teams for 2018
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