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Baltic Chain Tour Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:15
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The fifth anniversary for the Baltic Chain Tour, that covers five countries over it's five days. Definitely an unique event on the schedule with a cobbled prologue followed by four panflat stages without any intermediate or mountain sprints. One stage (on third day) going above 200km, so it's not only a race for pure sprinters, but also suited well for the strong men.
Amongst the four past winners, we have four different sprinters, who certainly belong(ed) to the best of the division: Lo Cicero (2016), Ahlstrand (2015), Vantomme (2014) and Avelino (2013). Given the short prologue, it's without any question a race for primarily the sprinters to battle for the highest GC honours.
The Startlist
The Sprinters | Favorites | FL | COB | SP | AC | PRL |  Lo Cicero | 72 | 69 | 84 | 78 | 75 |  Guerao | 74 | 68 | 83 | 76 | 57 |  Cavendish | 73 | 70 | 83 | 81 | 76 |  Kennaugh | 77 | 58 | 82 | 81 | 63 |  Goss | 74 | 60 | 82 | 78 | 65 |  Vantomme | 73 | 70 | 82 | 78 | 64 |  Appollonio | 74 | 65 | 81 | 78 | 61 |  Nelson | 72 | 64 | 81 | 81 | 72 |  Holloway | 78 | 65 | 80 | 82 | 71 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 74 | 80 | 78 | 74 |  Bouhanni | 74 | 59 | 80 | 77 | 55 |  Nizzolo | 73 | 57 | 80 | 79 | 66 | | Moser | 72 | 62 | 80 | 79 | 72 |  Keukeleire | 72 | 71 | 80 | 79 | 58 |  Castañeda | 71 | 55 | 80 | 79 | 73 |  Rowe | 78 | 75 | 79 | 80 | 74 |  Matthews | 75 | 66 | 79 | 79 | 64 | | Van der Sande | 75 | 66 | 79 | 79 | 58 | | Scully | 74 | 67 | 79 | 80 | 77 | | Chen | 74 | 57 | 79 | 78 | 70 |
Of course we have to begin with the defending race champion: Lo Cicero took two stages towards his GC-win last year. And despite struggling with his form so far this year, his combination of sprint, prologue and somewhat decent cobbled skills definitely make him a favorite for the GC again. The biggest contenders may be Cavendish (3rd in the GC and a stage-win back in 2013) and Vantomme (1st in the GC back in 2014 and two stage-wins in total). They are all amongst the best cobblers amongst the top sprinters and Cavendish should be rated the best prologue specialist amongst the most promising sprinters. Anything but the podium would be a disappointing result here.
There's also Van Asbroeck (3rd in the GC last year), Keukeleire (3rd in 2015), Rowe and maybe Scully as possible profiteers from their skills on the cobbles and/or in prologues. While Rowe might struggle against the heavy competition in the sprints, Van Asbroeck has to be considered a serious threat if he delivers in the opening stage.
Guerao (4th last year), Kennaugh, Goss, Appollonio, Nelson (4th in 2015) and Holloway as the best "pure" sprinters then. Holloway proved, that he can survive cobbles, when he rode to a strong GC result in the 5 Jours de Dunkerque earlier this season and he's at least coming with a solid prologue as well. All the other sprinters will heavily rely on the following four flat stages, where bonifications could easily lift them high into the GC's Top-5/10.
The Stage Hunters | Prologue specialists | COB | PRL | | | Cobbles specialists | COB | PRL | | Cornu | 69 | 81 | | | Kamyshev | 82 | 65 | | Paillot | 56 | 80 | | | Burghardt | 82 | 62 |  Kwok | 53 | 79 | | | Sibilla | 81 | 58 | | Kuboki | 59 | 78 | | | Bakari | 81 | 54 | | Li | 50 | 78 | | | Daniel | 80 | 64 | | Wisniowski | 79 | 77 | | | Wisniowski | 79 | 77 | | Scully | 67 | 77 | | | Thomas | 79 | 63 | | Atkins | 66 | 77 | | | Bush | 78 | 62 | | Christensen | 65 | 77 | | | Puccio | 78 | 61 | | Andersen | 54 | 77 | | |  Albert | 78 | 57 | | Cavendish | 70 | 76 | | | Eeckhout | 77 | 54 | | Oba | 70 | 76 | | | Nepomnyachsniy | 76 | 67 |  Van Poppel | 69 | 76 | | | Breschel | 76 | 61 | | Goddaert | 68 | 76 | | | Lindeman | 76 | 60 |
Looking at the history of the race, it's highly unlikely that the prologue's best will also finish too high in the GC: Franzoi (winner of the prologue in 2016) and Boom (2015) both ended up 8th in the GC eventually, while Steurs (2014) went to go 5th overall after his prologue victory three years ago. So, while the sprinters are likely to battle for the GC victory, there's certainly a chance for the prologue to have an impact on the GC as well.
Cobbles play a big role in the 3km prologue, so we see several of the division's best cobblers attending for the race: Kamyshev, Burghardt, Sibilla, Bakari, Daniel and of course Wisniowski as the most promising names ahead of Thomas (11th in 2015) and Bush as possible dark horses. Wisniowski obviously a big favorite for the opening stage, as he's rated the fifth best rider amongst both the prologue and cobbles specialists.
Cornu, the already mentioned Cavendish and Oba as those TT specialists, who can ride the pavé in a solid fashion. Other timetrialers like Pailoot, Kwok, Kuboki or Li probably will struggle on the pavement, but they are still here to somehow deny the influence of the cobbles for the prologue.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:20
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Tour de France Champion
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Obviously hoping Ricki can fight out the sprints, but well aware he's up against it to really do well in them. At least i hope he rides positively and doesn't just waste race days.
No idea what Burghardt will do, but there's only so many "cobbled" days available and it's easy to use them all. Same for Geraint, but he can sprint a bit and has often done well in races like this.
My real hope is for Darren Matthews. The Barbadian has continued to impress this year in flater stage races, and he could be a surprise package yet again given he has some sprint skill and time trial skill and cobble skill..
Always a fun event this one, very much looking forwards to it!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 20:06
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:30
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World Champion
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We need another good result like last year, a podium would be nice to keep us from the biggest downfall in MG history.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:31
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Classics Specialist
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Looking at earlier years, Wisniowski should be the favourite for the prologue. Rowe should also do decent, and hopefully get a few top 10s in the sprints. Looking forward to this!
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| viking90 |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:33
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Another pre favorite race for us mainly 'cause Ahlstrands performance here.
Hope so see Lo Cicero do good for our neighbors in Finland. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 02-03-2018 20:42
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Wisniowski without competition here as Polanc only for stage 1 was too less in my opinion to go for it in terms of PpRD. Otherwise a sprinters festival, surprised to not see Fablok here. Cavendish and Lo Cicero have to be the favourites for the overall then.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 02-03-2018 21:10
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Grand Tour Champion
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Would've had a chance at a good result if I brought Drapac but he's in Portugal wasting eleven racedays doing nothing. Ah well, hopefully Manarelli will take a point.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 02-03-2018 21:20
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I have high hopes for a podium for Cav here after a successful Deutschland Tour. The Prologue should give him a few seconds in hand over the other sprinters which could prove vital although its a bit random.
Thanks for the great preview tsmoha.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 02-03-2018 21:38
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Ranneries being leader over Appo in the startlist is not very encouraging.
For us, this is purely a sprint race, so we need Appo to bag us top 10's. If the team sprints for Ranneries instead, we're gonna have some issues.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 02-03-2018 22:28
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Would love an in-form Scully to do well on GC here, hope for somewhat entertaining racing involving Wisniowski stealing back the GC lead on stage 5 
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15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 02-03-2018 23:02
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Team Leader
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viking90 wrote:
Hope so see Lo Cicero do good for our neighbors in Finland.
Thanks. Now would certainly be a good time for Lo Cicero to get his act together.
Paillot is probably just as much here to help on the flat as for the prologue. Have brought Kulppi as well though but of course there is no doubt who I'm looking at to achieve my win goal!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 03-03-2018 07:07
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Hoping for a good result here, we'll have one of the best trains with Ji-Moser-Colbrelli-Goss; hopefully Goss can fight out a few finishes. Would like to see Lo Cicero actually turn up too and take home a few points for Valio.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 03-03-2018 09:04
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Hoping that Cornu can win the prologue despite the cobbles. Also would like to see Bouhanni show some consistency and actually get some results given he's got some decent support.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 03-03-2018 10:40
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So many stage races for me in August!
Wisniowski is surely the prologue favourite but last season when I won the stage with Franzoi showed that the prologue stat only counts very little and it is mainly about the cobbles stat. I believe a dice roll will decide between the top cobblers.
Very though sprinting competition for Guerao. I hope he can at least get some revenge on Cavendish who was clearly superior at the Deutschland Tour. Don't know how much I can expect but go Óscar!! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-03-2018 19:13
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Classics Specialist
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Well, that was a bummer. Still okay with 2nd and 7nd place, but we clearly had bigger hopes for Wisniowski.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-03-2018 19:14
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World Champion
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Not a bad start for us. Kwok and Kuboki and Zhao not too far off.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-03-2018 19:21
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World Champion
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Good start by Van Asbroeck, but we need boni seconds now.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-03-2018 19:38
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Grand Tour Champion
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Did not expect such a great prologue from Marcos. Unfortunately he's not the sprinter type so I think he'll fall down the GC.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 03-03-2018 20:13
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I should've brought Kaspa here. 
Nice report of one of the coolest stages of they yea tsmoha, thanks!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 03-03-2018 20:39
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Team Leader
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Decent start. Had hoped to lose less to Cavendish but still better than most. Now for the real racing
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Baltic Chain Tour
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
