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Post Danmark Rundt Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 24-01-2018 06:01
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 Post Danmark Rundt
The race goes into it's 10th edition this year, being part of the MG calendar since 2008. After being downgraded to CT status last season, with Kiril Yatsevich taking the overall victory, the race is back in the PCT schedule with HC status. Whoever is going to win this year's edition, will join a spectacular honour roll: Jacob Fiedler (2015), Michael Rogers (2014), David Zabriskie (2013), Kai Reus (2012) or Dominique Cornu (2010) as some standout timetrial specialists, who did ride to overall victories here.
And the main character of the race is still the same: the concluding timetrial will be the key stage for the GC contenders. Opposing to previous years though, it's not an all-flat race anymore. Stage three comes with a hilly profile and while it ain't looking like a stage, that should blow the field into pieces, it will definitely be another key stage for those, who aim for the GC - as it does feature an Ardennesque uphill finish: short, but steep. No good news for some pure TT specialists, who can not climb a hill properly.
The Startlist
The TT specialists | Best | FL | HI | TT | | Rest | FL | HI | TT |  Cornu | 75 | 72 | 81 | |  Dempster | 74 | 64 | 79 |  Ford | 63 | 55 | 81 | |  Kwok | 76 | 62 | 79 |  Ignatiev | 80 | 75 | 80 | |  Goncalves | 70 | 71 | 78 |  Paillot | 70 | 71 | 80 | | Atkins | 75 | 68 | 78 |  Sergent | 79 | 69 | 80 | |  Quaade | 71 | 63 | 78 |  Viennet | 72 | 67 | 80 | | Sterobo | 70 | 62 | 78 |  Van Winden | 74 | 63 | 80 | | Li | 75 | 61 | 78 | | Dillier | 70 | 63 | 80 | | Steensen | 74 | 72 | 77 |  Fraile | 69 | 72 | 79 | | Pökälä | 70 | 71 | 77 |  Brändle | 75 | 71 | 79 | |  Rolland | 70 | 70 | 77 | | Viviani | 78 | 66 | 79 | | Ghyselinck | 74 | 68 | 77 |
A previous race winner is the top-favorite for the 2017 edition of the event: Cornu is the man to beat here. The best TT specialist amongst all riders and also capable of surviving a hilly stage like this in the main group. Will he be able to repeat his GC victory from 2010? It's been a long time since then, but he may fancy his chances thanks to the more challenging road stage(s) now.
Opposing to guys like Michael Ford, Van Winden or Dillier in particular. It should be a hard task for them to get away with no time loss in the hilly stage, but if they limit the losses, they should be all capable of gaining back time in the almost 30km timetrial later on.
There are more promising contenders for Cornu though: Ignatiev surely as the most dangerous threat for the GC win. His allround package is so strong, that it would be disappointing, if he doesn't end up on the GC podium - at least. Other possible podium contenders are Paillot, Sergent, Viennet, Fraile, Brändle or Goncalves.
The Sprinters | Best | HI | TT | SPR | ACC | Rest | HI | TT | SPR | ACC | | Lo Cicero | 64 | 56 | 84 | 78 | Bouhanni | 63 | 55 | 80 | 77 |  Mohs | 65 | 66 | 83 | 82 | Vanoverschelde | 62 | 59 | 80 | 75 | | Kennaugh | 65 | 63 | 82 | 81 | Serebriakov | 61 | 64 | 80 | 77 | | Appollonio | 66 | 61 | 81 | 78 | Itami | 61 | 63 | 80 | 82 |  Guillén | 61 | 56 | 81 | 82 |  Van der Sande | 70 | 58 | 79 | 79 |  Nelson | 60 | 56 | 81 | 81 | Docker | 68 | 68 | 79 | 77 | | Maksimov | 58 | 69 | 81 | 84 | Reinhardt | 67 | 67 | 79 | 84 |  Van Asbroeck | 71 | 66 | 80 | 78 | Stepniak | 67 | 64 | 79 | 79 | | Keukeleire | 70 | 58 | 80 | 79 | Peeters | 62 | 64 | 79 | 77 | | Guardini | 64 | 59 | 80 | 82 | Modolo | 73 | 58 | 78 | 81 |
Three flat stages and one (less hard looking hilly stage) - the Post Danmark Rundt remains being attractive for the division's top sprinters. And it's a stacked field of sprinters here:
Lo Cicero, Mohs and Kennaugh as the standout sprinters on paper. Lo Cicero not exactly enjoying a great season, but it may be about time to show that he's still a force. A few more 81+ could make things difficult though: Appollonio (who's much stronger this year), Guillén, Nelson and Maksimov.
Van Asbroeck and Keukeleire as the best sprinters in terms of surviving hills. They may even target stage three that way. Guardini, Bouhanni, Vanoverschelde, Serbriakov, Itami.. the list of 80+ sprinters and possible stage-winners is quite long. We should expect some tight sprint decisions.
The Others | Puncheurs | FL | HI | TT | | Riders to watch | FL | HI | TT |  Moazemi | 67 | 78 | 69 | | Navardauskas | 75 | 74 | 76 | | Watson | 70 | 78 | 68 | | Grivko | 68 | 74 | 72 | | Quevedo | 69 | 78 | 65 | | Hudecek | 68 | 74 | 72 | | Barbin | 69 | 78 | 63 | | Walker | 72 | 74 | 71 | | Poljanski | 66 | 77 | 67 | | Kuboki | 73 | 73 | 75 | | Edet | 67 | 77 | 59 | | Abreu | 73 | 73 | 75 | | Yates | 72 | 76 | 68 | | De Maar | 75 | 73 | 72 | | Lavery | 69 | 76 | 64 | | Pokidov | 68 | 73 | 72 | | Acevedo | 69 | 76 | 64 | | Olsson | 71 | 73 | 71 | | Hatanaka | 70 | 76 | 63 | | | | | | | Kadri | 73 | 76 | 61 | | | | | |
Stage three obviously a tricky one, as it did not attract too many puncheurs to try their luck here. In fact, we only got a handful of 78 HI guys, who do not even timetrial too well. So guys like Moazemi, Watson, Quevedo or Barbin will most likely only aim for some stage-success here. Which could make things interesting for a neutral spectator, to be honest.
Given the less strong field of puncheurs, even the less strong climbers may fancy their GC chances then: Navardauskas definitely as the most interesting "dark horse" in this field. His allround package may be strong enough to achieve a notable result here. A few other less promising dark horses may be Grivko, Hudecek, Walker, Kuboki or Abreu. They all combine hills and timetrials pretty well, even though they are definitely too far down the TT ranking to be considered Top-20 contenders. Anyway, we've seen surprises before, so those guys may be the first to perform, if some big guns fail.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 24-01-2018 06:26
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Somehow hoping Kuboki/Kwok can get another good result here, but Itami and Hatanaka can hopefully place well on stages as well. If its Kuboki gonna have to hope for a selection on the hilly stage and that Kuboki is in the front group ahead of some of the other TT riders, but its a pretty "flat" looking hilly stage, so we'll see.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 24-01-2018 06:35
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Just as in the PT right now it seems this race clash has found itself with a quite one-sided startlist (so screw you all for probably giving cycleYorkshire a buttload of points if they're in Slovenie). Tough luck for Isostar but Brändle showed promise in Norway and Navardauskas could be fun here. Would like to see Sergent perform as well.
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| ryant |
Posted on 24-01-2018 07:14
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jandal7 wrote:
Just as in the PT right now it seems this race clash has found itself with a quite one-sided startlist (so screw you all for probably giving cycleYorkshire a buttload of points if they're in Slovenie). Tough luck for Isostar but Brändle showed promise in Norway and Navardauskas could be fun here. Would like to see Sergent perform as well.
I'm not gonna say anything, but... 
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 24-01-2018 08:20
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Sort of a home race for us but the first time we have been allowed to race it so that will be fun.
Ivano needs to start performing and this could be a good time for Vinther to turn in to the lead-out force he was last year again. Homesoil should motivate?
Perhaps Vastaranta will caryy his Vuelta-form into the hilly stage? That could be fun!
Otherwise I just hope that Paillot will avoid time losses until the final TT. It have been a bad tendency to use him as one of the first in chasing the break and then he is tired when the peloton cracks and I'm not confident that PCM will be clever enough to actually handle his GC chances decently...
The startlist could open for a decent GC for Pökälä even, which would be very nice as he seems to have lost a lot of TT-motivation since his surprising defeat in the NC.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-01-2018 08:58
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We lack a TT rider that goes well on the hills, so we can't hope for too much here. Hoping mainly for some good, aggressive riding.
Ignatiev, Cornu and Navardauskas my three favourites for this one.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-01-2018 09:34
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I got scared when I saw Vanbilsen as leader here, did I mess up my planning? Apparently not, cause Van Asbroeck is here as well. Still on clue why Vanbilsen is here though
No GC ambitions due to the long TT, but I hope for a good result on stages 2-3.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Selwink |
Posted on 24-01-2018 09:50
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I'm slightly worried about the hilly stage and Ford, who will probably end up about last there. Serebriakov will need some luck to sprint well here, but hopefully either of the two manages to surprise me.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 24-01-2018 11:32
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Well hopefully Ricki can get himself involved once or twice, maybe Docker will be useful in that. Yates could be interesting on the hilly day. G as a strong man could help Ricki or move late in a day. Matthews here as maybe our best GC option and he's still having a good strong year.
We've got a couple of ways to get points out of here, but they're not the best. We'll just see how it plays out.
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| Heine |
Posted on 24-01-2018 11:43
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I'd put my money on Ignatiev here, he should be the strongest
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 24-01-2018 13:50
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So Ranneries is listed as my leader here. I'm a little more than confused. Not a good sign for Appo.
Obviously we want to perform well in our home race, but we'll see how realistic of a possibility that is.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-01-2018 14:51
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Yes, I failed planning to send Brändle here and not to Slovenia.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 24-01-2018 15:41
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One of those race we need to overpreform a little bit if we want to win the PCT. I'm looking at you Fraile and Maksimov. Should be an interesting race that will be decided on the final stage.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 25-01-2018 06:23
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Itami has really been having a bit of a comeback season this year. 4th is good.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 25-01-2018 07:11
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Terrible, terrible stage for us.
Like Cicero nowhere to be found. Now I just hope that Paillot wasn't too hurt in the crash, but seeing our luck this season I expect him to lose a few minutes before the TT.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-01-2018 09:01
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8th is not the best result of course, but it was close. The next two stages should be better for Van Asbroeck.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 25-01-2018 09:25
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Nothing lost, so guess it's okay
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| Selwink |
Posted on 25-01-2018 10:28
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5th is good, and luckily Ford doesn't seem injured
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 25-01-2018 11:04
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Very strong looking G. Very active looking Ricki. Great start!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-01-2018 11:51
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Nothing yet. Hopefully Brändle, Quevedo and Navardauskas can do their magic later.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
