I also don't understand too much why Marco was killed last night, except that the godfather wanted him dead because he was too suspicious...
I'm not sure of anyone right now, and while i know who i'm lynching today, i'm not about who i would lynch the last day - if i'm still alive obviously.
Ryant looks the safest, having started the lynch on raziz, but also can be an attempt to hide in plain sight being a "confirmed" townie for that. It was quite "adecuate" that Raziz bombed Ian only 50 minutes after Ryant's comment, when he had barely being online in the previous days. Not that i really believe he's mafia, but it's just raising doubts
With Bikex it's always the "he tried to lynch me" thing, but i believe he is townie.
And Trek, i guess you might want to know why i haven't tried to join conflicts. Actually i have always in previous games tried to not be in conflicts, because i don't think that it would have helped me or the town, as it's just being on town's target usually for nothing. Although when i was almost sure of something i didn't hold.
That leaves Selwink, who as we know is completely inactive in the game. I'm afraid that if we don't lynch him today, he'll be in the final 3, and even if he isn't mafia, it could decide the game for the mafia, as if he doesn't vote, there will be a tie, and mafia wins. So that's why Lynch Selwink
Aquarius97 wrote:
Ryant looks the safest, having started the lynch on raziz, but also can be an attempt to hide in plain sight being a "confirmed" townie for that. It was quite "adecuate" that Raziz bombed Ian only 50 minutes after Ryant's comment, when he had barely being online in the previous days. Not that i really believe he's mafia, but it's just raising doubts
It's possible that he regularly checks the mafia chat and was warned by his buddy or that jandal told him to check daily in the spirit of a good game or maybe it was a coincidence, although I can totally understand that doubt, on the other hand, like when bikex mentioned BBL's comment about not lynching inactive players, sometimes this sort of stuff can be read into too much.
---
About the not getting into conflicts part, I totally get that some people play like that which is why I think you're a townie, it's just that the mafia also have good reason to play like that, so I consider it.
Anyway, looking at the other three active players, I don't think any of you are mafia, so I'd have to say that I'm somewhat confident that it'll be Selwink.
jandal told him to check daily in the spirit of a good game
Nope Couldn't have if I wanted to, had no internet.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Anyway, looking at the other three active players, I don't think any of you are mafia, so I'd have to say that I'm somewhat confident that it'll be Selwink.
How can I be the Godfather though when last time someone was killed by the mafia I wasn't online during the night?
@trekbmc: Are you deliberately misunderstanding my question? I obviously was asking about the mafia 'day', I took the quote from, not the one when we all decided not to lynch. The one we agreed on that a lynch was necessary. Only you didn't cast your vote besides Selwink, who was not active at the time.
Looking at your voting pattern, something else struck me: You always took a lot of time before finally making a decision, except for when Raziz was lynched. This raises the suspicion that this was only an act to avoid any more questioning after you were suspected when not voting on wsf when he was uncovered by Ian.
Really any other player alive seems a lot like he is innocent, but with you trekbmc I detect the biggest inconsistencies. Additionally I think due to your experience in the game you would be the one most capable to give a good show to convince the rest of your innocence.
Some other things I noticed, trekbmc wasn't killed by the mafia after Ian got a positive reading on him, something marco has noticed. Maybe that's a reason for marco's surprising killing, to remove potential candidates who could vote to lynch you.
Despite being wrong following my gut feeling before, I'll do so again and vote to lynch trekbmc. I hope others follow, as I do not believe Selwink is the godfather.
@Selwink: You could've given instructions beforehand to jandal, so you wouldn't necessarily have needed to be online. Still as said, it would be very surprising to me if you were the godfather. I think Selwink was kept alive all the game mainly due to his inactivity.
@Aquarius: Mafia doesn't win with a tie, iirc the first vote would then decide. Also I don't follow your logic at all. Why lynch Selwink now to prevent a situation where he would be the deciding vote, which would make him a townie. Also in the final 3 still 2 can vote against him, this doesn't need to happen now. I think you should focus on the others for the moment and think again about Selwink if he is still among the last 3.
Are you deliberately misunderstanding my question? I obviously was asking about the mafia 'day', I took the quote from, not the one when we all decided not to lynch. The one we agreed on that a lynch was necessary
Oh, I just looked at the wrong day, I was so unsure that day, I trusted BBL, but the things you brought up made me doubt my own opinion and I couldn't come to a decision.
Looking at your voting pattern, something else struck me: You always took a lot of time before finally making a decision, except for when Raziz was lynched. This raises the suspicion that this was only an act to avoid any more questioning after you were suspected when not voting on wsf when he was uncovered by Ian.
God forbid I take time to think about my decision!
You'll notice that I mentioned at some point that I wanted Raziz lynched earlier (back when I put your name in a post because you weren't very active and you turned it back and started targetting me), ryant was the first one to cast a vote for Raziz and since he and Ian were the only players I 100% trusted, that was another reason I was willing to follow along.
Some other things I noticed, trekbmc wasn't killed by the mafia after Ian got a positive reading on him, something marco has noticed. Maybe that's a reason for marco's surprising killing, to remove potential candidates who could vote to lynch you.
Marcovdw wrote:
If they continue this trend then trekbmc will be klled next unless he's the godfather or Ian is lying (and in that case we know both remaining mobsters). So I think we have to not lynch him today, and I'll break the promise I made when I lynched TMM for now
So what you are saying is that we don't lynch trek to see if he gets killed this night by mafia, because if not, he's likely the godfather or Ian and Trek are the remaining mafia members
Without even focusing on that at this point you still have any doubt that Ian is the detective, even with a mafia attempt at killing him - how epic it would if Ian had tried to kill himself knowing that he would be saved - you just gave mafia the perfect excuse to not kill trek this night and go for anyone else, with the reasoning of "let's hope that people believe he's the godfather because mafia didn't continue the trend of killing "confirmed" townies" which is a one-day run. But maybe i'm overthinking
The thing about bikex, is that last game he focussed on one guy - Croatia and I was suspicious of that because I trusted Croatia, but he turned out to be a townie, however I believe ryant is townie, looking through the thread I trust Aquarius more and more, so I don't know if I'll trust him tomorrow.
Although I believe Selwink is mafia, so hopefully we won't get to that point.
@Aquarius: Mafia doesn't win with a tie, iirc the first vote would then decide. Also I don't follow your logic at all. Why lynch Selwink now to prevent a situation where he would be the deciding vote, which would make him a townie. Also in the final 3 still 2 can vote against him, this doesn't need to happen now. I think you should focus on the others for the moment and think again about Selwink if he is still among the last 3. Wink
Whether in the rules it says that in case of a tie between two players in the voting it depends on the time of the final vote to see who is lynched, every time that there has been a tie, no one have died that day. So if
And yes, i understand that it's not a great logic, but at this point i don't see any of you having more chances to be the godfather than any other, as Trek's defense has convinced me so far.
We don't have any info about Selwink in this game, so lynching him we have the same odds as with everyone else while we could make a wiser decision in the final day if we get to 3 active players in there.
I thought I read the tie part somewhere but I possibly made it up.
I hope I’m wrong about Selwink but imo also with him more speaks for him being pro town.
Treks defence is very convincing you are right but imo there were already a few too many flaws in his acting. But like trek said I tend to focus too much on some players at times so maybe I’m wrong another time, but at one point I have to be correct!
@trek: i wasn’t criticizing that you take your time before deciding, I was noticing that in this particular case you suddenly did not want to take the entire day for your lynch vote. Imo that’s standing out a lot.
Your excuse for not casting a lynch vote is still poor imo, if you weren’t convinced bbl is the godfather, you still could have voted for someone else.
If Selwink turns out to be a townie, like I believe, the godfather is one of the three that voted to lynch raziz. Your vote in that case was the one least fitting with your general style of play.
Can you please tell me why you trusted ryant 100% at that point? I think from a townie point of view that could not have been possible.
I didn’t target you the first time, because you put my name in a post but because you didn’t lynch vote wsf when there was the time.
That said, I hope I’m wrong and selwink is the last mafia guy!
Your excuse for not casting a lynch vote is still poor imo, if you weren’t convinced bbl is the godfather, you still could have voted for someone else.
I wasn't really convinced anybody was the godfather though, so I figured if the town was going that way then I wasn't going to contest it, if I had to cast a vote then I guess it would've gone to Marco, but it turns out that also would've been wrong as well.
Can you please tell me why you trusted ryant 100% at that point? I think from a townie point of view that could not have been possible.
When I was going to be lynched without that much reasoning (the only legitimate argument was that I hadn't lynched wsf, but as I said then that day ran from 9:30 PM to 7:00 AM for me and I had a race that morning and 3 other players who didn't provide any reason were going under the radar) and there was also a lot of suspicion for hillis who seemed like a 95% confirmed townie, ryant was the first one to call out TMM for bringing chaos and making rather random accusations and started the lynch votes on him. (imo the three best things for the mafia are chaos, random accusations from townies and TMM) as well as saying that hillis wasn't suspicious. This post sums it up pretty well (he changed it to a lynch TMM vote a couple posts down)
ryant wrote:
I lynch nobody for now, but expect TMM to be on my list if he continues his tactic of bringing 'chaos' to the town by just throwing around outlandish accusations. I believe Hillis is the CC, any other counter claim would have been made by now and the likelihood of the CC being dead already was very low when Hillis made his claim.
Also, he isn't 100% for me but at this current moment, I'd say I trust him that little bit more (but now I'm starting to get paranoid, because that's what happens when you trust somebody in this game )
OK... so theres 5 of us left and I'm gonna try and sort this out and likely get this horribly wrong
Selwink - One I definitely think is suspicious. Of course theres been little activity from you throughout the game and I've only seen one relatively helpful post from you. I think this could be the Godfather trying to cover his tracks in the late game by saying he was inactive the entire game.
Bikex - Don't necessarily trust that much. I personally dont believe trek is the Godfather so its striking that you want him lynched. Still, you've tried to be helpful with some more analytical posts later on in the game, but have been few and far between in my eyes.
trekbmc - One who I actually believe is town. Yes, he was late to the lynch fest on wsf, but he was rather helpful in my eyes early on in the game, and helped me explain my belief that hillis was indeed the CC in the first few days.
ryant - Innocent... duh
Aquarius97 - And another I dont trust, not much to say about you though... :/
Overall, I think we should lynch Selwink today. He is either a distraction if he's town (and one the Godfather will play on in the last day) or he's the Godfather himself, nothing much else to say.
If I make it to the last day, I'd want either Aquarius or Bikex lynched, I just dont think trek is mafia.
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Day 8:
An attack was carried out on ryant last night - a bomb in his backyard. Luckily after the mafia man fled the doctor quickly rushed to the scene and patched ryant up before it was too late.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
That confirms ryant and, unless somebody wants to counter-claim against me, it should confirm that I'm the doctor. I'm revealing now because it doesn't actually benefit the mafia more than us to know who the doctor is, especially because the mafia only gets (max.) one more chance to kill and they know that the doctor is alive now anyway.
This means that there are two suspects left, Aquarius and Bikex, although even if we mislynch today, it's still possible for me to get another save to give us another chance.
Having said all of that, I have no clue which one is mafia, I might read through the thread again, but I'm quite unsure, would be good to get some more discussion I guess.
Although for me it's now quite obvious that Bikex is the godfather, Trek and Ryant, you have two options right nwo.
1- Lynch one of us today
In this scenario, you have a 50% chance of lynching the godfather, which would obviously end the game. But if you miss, there's only a 25% of winning the game, which would be Trek choosing to save the player the godfather tries to kill.
In general, by this way, we have a 62,5% chance of winning the game
2- Not lynching today
In the night, the godfather tries to kill either Ryant or Trek, again with a 25% chance of both players being alive at next day's dawn. If Trek makes a save again, we are back to the decision of step 1 or step 2.
If Trek can't make the save, it's again a 50% chance of lynching the godfather in the final day, in a decision that would have only to be make by one player, not by two like in step 1. For this path we get a 37,5% chance of winning
Given that we still miss the 25% of Trek's saving again, in which we can only get a 62,5% chance of winning at most, i would estimate the chances of winning by this wey between 55-60%, but always a bit lower than in Step 1.
It's up to you, Trek and Ryant, and while this vote is uselss, i'll use it
I don't think Not lynching today helps us really, since the godfather would almost certainly attack ryant or I (if you or bikex died, it would make the decision much easier and benefit us), so there's a 50% chance I get it right and we're stuck in the same situation and a 50% chance I get it wrong and suddenly ryant or I is dead which doesn't really help us.
We'd be better off lynching today with a 50% chance and then if we get it wrong, I have a 50% chance of making another stage, which gives us a 75% chance of winning if lynches and saves were random (I think Aquarius used some wrong percentages).
Although for me it's now quite obvious that Bikex is the godfather, Trek and Ryant, you have two options right nwo.
1- Lynch one of us today
In this scenario, you have a 50% chance of lynching the godfather, which would obviously end the game. But if you miss, there's another 50% of winning the game, which would be Trek choosing to save the player the godfather tries to kill.
In general, by this way, we have a 75% chance of winning the game
2- Not lynching today
In the night, the godfather tries to kill either Ryant or Trek, again with a 50% chance of both players being alive at next day's dawn. If Trek makes a save again, we are back to the decision of step 1 or step 2.
If Trek can't make the save, it's again a 50% chance of lynching the godfather in the final day, in a decision that would have only to be make by one player, not by two like in step 1. For this path we get a 37,5% chance of winning
Given that we still miss the 50% of Trek's saving again, in which we can only get a 75% chance of winning at most, i would estimate the chances of winning by this wey between 68-72%, but always a bit lower than in Step 1.
It's up to you, Trek and Ryant, and while this vote is uselss, i'll use it
Sorry haven't logged in since my last post, I'm going to think it through tomorrow, when I hopefully have some more time.
Just for now a short post, if ryant is not claiming to be the doctor, I was wrong about trekbmc and I believe the chance of ryant doing that is almost 0.
1. Sorry about trying to lynch you earlier, but to me you didn't give a good figure especially in the last few days.
2. Good job saving ryant, but tbh that was an easy save.
3. Overall, despite 2 saves, I think there was more possible. Why didn't you save hillis? To me that kill was clear as day going to be hillis.
4. You shouldn't have claimed to be the doctor just yet. I disagree that the timing doesn't benefit the mafia. Imo you should have waited how the day played out before deciding. Only if you were on the verge of being lynched you maybe could have said to be the doctor. I admit I probably would have tried, so you have saved me from some more embarassement, but I think it would have been better if Aquarius wouldn't have known who the doctor was going into the last night. I doubt he would've necessarily tried to kill you in that case.
Also one more thing, despite being on the wood path on many occasions, I was the first early in the game to have put a lynch vote on the godfather! I'm a little proud of that.
