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Mafia V
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| ryant |
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:51
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jseadog1 wrote:
Would you really want the CC or Detective to reveal themselves this early? Surely they would be killed. Same goes for the doctor. What info do you want about me anyway?
Out of your list I also want to hear from weirdskyfan and what he thinks.
I've already explained why I believe the Detective should come out right now. He should have 5 separate results (maybe 2 or 3 on the same person). We already know theres a doctor out there as well, so he will be protected. Which is why theres no negative to a CC/Det. coming out right now, and would actually make the town focus on more important targets, as we are still basing accusations of these forum posts which has proven not to be very accurate.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-10-2017 17:05
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There is a thought that the Detective can show themselves and be protected by the Doctor. If we didn't know the Doctor was still active it would be a stupid move at this time, but with 100% knowledge of the Doctor the Detective can reveal themselves and be safe.
Certainly the Doctor save has made the game more interesting, but i think we have to start lynching. I know i started the previous day with a nobody lynch vote, but i was just seeing how people would react to that idea. In the end i came down on lynching Croatia. He's been on my suspect list for days, given his repeated atempts to kill me. Has my suspision changed? Not even slightly, i'm as convinced now as yesterday.
Is there another person i would lynch first? There's an argument for several people, like ryant who still lives despite regular concern. Or someone quieter like Raziz or Knockout who're avoiding most discussion. But anyway, i don't want to waste hours going around in circles.
Lynch Croatia
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 17:09
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Grand Tour Champion
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You make some good points in that first paragraph TMM I just fear that it could end in disaster if someone who is mafia comes out as detective because at this point its easy to say and make up who is confirmed town.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-10-2017 17:12
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Tour de France Champion
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jseadog1 wrote:
You make some good points in that first paragraph TMM I just fear that it could end in disaster if someone who is mafia comes out as detective because at this point its easy to say and make up who is confirmed town.
At least we'd get a showdown  Imagine that argument!
And if the CC is still alive he could prove decisive in such a discussion. Or we might force the terrorist into action, although unlikely.
There's pros and cons to everything. Perhaps i'm getting bored and want some fireworks
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 18:10
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
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Detective obviously shouldn't claim until they think they have the right amount of information, this might mean they've caught a couple mafia or they can confirm that they are CC or a very large number of people confirmed as a townie. Because the mafia will kill him, either through night kills or the terrorist.
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Some thoughts from me at the moment as we probably need to make a second lynch soon:
I'm rather suspicious of Knockout at the moment. For two reasons, firstly he hasn't been as involved in the discussions and catch of the mafia as last season. This time he's simply been very focussed on sammyt's posts, although his replies were agreeable and accurate. Also, I would've thought that he would've been at the top of the mafia's kill list as one of MVP's of last season, although the mafia have focussed on killing reasonably quiet member's so far (but not wsf!)
I'm also quite suspicious of Jesadog, who seems keen to jump on lynch trains as I mentioned earlier. And his defense when I raised the point is not super convincing:
Spoiler jseadog1 wrote:
trekbmc wrote:
Also, I really don't want to point fingers but is it just me or is Jesadog jumping on every lynch train? 
Not true. I would not jump on a train at this point to lynch TMM, Croatia, Raziz, or baseballlover. I would still prefer to lynch ryant over you but confirming you are a townie means that we aren't going to risk lynching someone with an important role (Doctor, Detective). We could throw the CC into that if we consider it an important role
You pretty much said that you wouldn't lynch 4 players but you'd jump on any other lynch train.
Otherwise Raziz catches my eye as quite suspicious he made the mafia suffer last game by not being active and this game he posts often with long posts but never including heaps of substance.
Otherwise nobody is clear from suspicion for me but those three members catch my eye the most (who haven't been over mentioned). I could be totally wrong but then again, I could be on point.
These aren't really concrete accusations but more just a collection of thoughts, however, because I know his excuse will be the best I will vote Lynch Knockout for now, although more to inspire some responses than anything. Let's see where this goes!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 18:26
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Grand Tour Champion
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So 1 vote for Bikex, trekbmc, Croatia, and knockout so far?
Interesting for sure there is a wide variety of accusations and lynching at the moment. Would like to see what baseballlover & sammy think as of now.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 18:46
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jseadog1 wrote:
So 1 vote for Bikex, trekbmc, Croatia, and knockout so far?
Interesting for sure there is a wide variety of accusations and lynching at the moment. Would like to see what baseballlover & sammy think as of now.
My vote is of course a more tentative discussion starting vote.
Would be great to see thoughts from everybody though. 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-10-2017 18:47
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Team Leader
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Also, Jesadog, where was the vote for me? Believe Ian was just bolding my name and actually casting a vote of it was him.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 18:55
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I'm not with trek in assuming that he was the one attacked last night just because he's confirmed townie. The mafia obviously knows which of us are pro town, so you would think that they'd rather go for other townies that might actually have an important role, rather than a mason whose power I useless now. Chances of getting the doctor or detective are better than nothing fi they pick anyone except him. I'd go as far as to say it probably wasn't him for that reason.
The detective coming out is very tricky. It really relies on three conditions to make sure it doesn't end up going awry. Unfortunately, without communication, it's very hard to guarantee any of these can happen.
1. The detective has to know for sure they are the detective
2. The CC has to be dead or know for sure he is the confused cop
3. The doctor has to continue to survive himself the next few nights
If say the doctor is by chance killed, then the detective would be exposed and unless we get some good lynches before then, we'll be in a very big hole going forward. I'd suggest he detective sit tight now unless he has intel that could possibly nab us multiple mafia members. It's definitely not impossible - I was detective last game and had two of my mafia reads in the first three nights iirc. However, it is unlikely obviously.
I'm still suspicious of ryant, even more so with how badly he wants the detective to reveal himself. But as everyone else seems to have moved on, I will await further discussion of the current candidates before I pick a side. I still think lynching nobody is not really an option, although getting lucky with the doctor last night did buy us some time.
We also have to hope in any case that the detective is still alive. At least we know now we have a doctor.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| ryant |
Posted on 11-10-2017 19:03
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
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baseballlover312 wrote:
I'm not with trek in assuming that he was the one attacked last night just because he's confirmed townie. The mafia obviously knows which of us are pro town, so you would think that they'd rather go for other townies that might actually have an important role, rather than a mason whose power I useless now. Chances of getting the doctor or detective are better than nothing fi they pick anyone except him. I'd go as far as to say it probably wasn't him for that reason.
The detective coming out is very tricky. It really relies on three conditions to make sure it doesn't end up going awry. Unfortunately, without communication, it's very hard to guarantee any of these can happen.
1. The detective has to know for sure they are the detective
2. The CC has to be dead or know for sure he is the confused cop
3. The doctor has to continue to survive himself the next few nights
If say the doctor is by chance killed, then the detective would be exposed and unless we get some good lynches before then, we'll be in a very big hole going forward. I'd suggest he detective sit tight now unless he has intel that could possibly nab us multiple mafia members. It's definitely not impossible - I was detective last game and had two of my mafia reads in the first three nights iirc. However, it is unlikely obviously.
I'm still suspicious of ryant, even more so with how badly he wants the detective to reveal himself. But as everyone else seems to have moved on, I will await further discussion of the current candidates before I pick a side. I still think lynching nobody is not really an option, although getting lucky with the doctor last night did buy us some time.
We also have to hope in any case that the detective is still alive. At least we know now we have a doctor.
*bangs head on desk
I mean, I'm the only one offering a valid strategy for town here and you shoot me down? I mean, I'm very interested in hearing your ideas other than just lynching me. :/
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 19:16
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Classics Specialist
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If the detective comes out now then unless he names the godfather and the goon leaving the terrorist as the only one not named as mafia then he will get suicided, I can't see why the mafia would wait for a night kill opportunity knowing that the doctor is active if the detective comes forward now as the doctor would just save him overnight.
I'll make a proper post analysing the discussion in full so far and who I think was saved by the doctor and who I think is safe to trust as town when I have time but I feel the need to remind everyone, especially ryant who is pushing for a detective reveal, why it would be a really bad idea unless the detective has enough information.
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 19:41
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So complicated when everybody makes valid points and really seems to be pro-town!! How about Ian Butler & knockout, what do you guys think?
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 11-10-2017 19:43
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trekbmc wrote:
Also, Jesadog, where was the vote for me? Believe Ian was just bolding my name and actually casting a vote of it was him.
I wanna make clear that it was, in fact, not a lynch vote, just using bold to make the post a bit easier to follow but I'll try to find other ways to stress names in the future, to avoid confusion. |
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 11-10-2017 19:54
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Tour de France Champion
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I don't know. At this point, I think a choice has to be made. I've refrained from lynch votes so far, for obvious reasons, but just waiting to get picked off one by one is not the way to win the game.
I can follow TMM's reasoning fairly well, and I'm more and more convinced he is pro-town and am inclined to support him.
Ryant has been an issue for a long time and I'm afraid it'll keep the town divided. But is he mafia? That is far from certain.
I definitely don't encourage the detective to make himself known. I'm actually very much in doubt if he is still alive, or if he's active (wsf?).
Trek has put his suspicious-list together, give me some time to mull it over, I need to think about what he said.
Like others have said, we can't keep on waiting and so we need a lynch. I'm gonna go with someone I've been suspicious of for a while: lynch Croatia |
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-10-2017 20:48
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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I realize that I’ve been more active in the last season and that has a fairly simple reason: Last season I was mostly in university or at home and no prof cared when I spent a whole lecture writing a long post for daily on my mobile. Currently, I’m still working full time and I’m working on my bachelor thesis which I have to submit at the end of the year so I have less time than the last time. Add some MG previews that I’m preparing as you know and I’m already spending more time on daily than I intended.
I would have betted quite some money that either me, trek or bbl would have been the killing target in the first night as we were the main players of the most discussed action in last season. No idea why that did not happen.
I’m rather focused on sammyt right now because I feel like he provided the biggest logic hole in his posts and I believe that it is one of the best things someone can do as mafia: Make posts that look helpful on your hunt of the mafia but include advices that are harmful to the town if followed by everyone. Recommending investigating the same player three times in the row is something which I would consider the second most harming advice this season after hillis idea to let the detective claim his role to confirm that hillis is a town member on day two. That ofc can also be a rookie mistake but i have the feeling he is mafia so i try to concentrate my effort on getting him lynched until i have better idea. You see with jseadog and Croatia how quickly fingerpointing at everyone can cause some people starting to doubt you and when you are doubted you're own arguments won't be taken as seriously as if you are considered town. That's why i mostly focus on the one i consider the most likely mafia at this point. Therefore lynch Sammyt.
The only 100% read I have is that trek is town. Him being a mafia member would require him one of two things to be true:
1. He knows that both masons are dead already by the time of the claim. Since there is no role in the game that knows the exact role of other players that would suggest that he had very strong reads on two of the dead players to be masons. Since I cannot find any posts suggesting that someone is a mason I’m sure that there is nothing that would make it obvious enough for trek to take that risk.
2. Him accepting the likely chance of a counter claim. The real masons would have no reason to not counter claim because the effect of the role does not allow the chance to let one mafia member claim it. And even if trek is the terrorist ready to bomb someone up I can not see it being worth a mason claim. Given the low chance that both masons are dead by the moment of the claim and the little use it would have for the mafia this is also really unlikely.
There you have it: A mafia member wouldn’t do it. 100% confirmed townee. Everyone who still spreads doubt about this makes himself more suspicious to me (I’d love a good explanation why you think this if you really consider this to be a stunt by the mafia!)
Who else could be part of the mafia? Ryant seems to be the best answer by many but I don’t think so. The whole idea of him being mafia is nearly entirely based on his first post and I cannot see much afterwards that suggest him being mafia except maybe a lack of good defense.
I really would love to see a proper post by weirdskyfan. I needed trek’s mention of him to realize that I haven’t noticed a single post all season long. Needed to look his profile up to see that he in fact posted two one-liners to blame hillis. WSF, if you are out there, please post something useful!
I’m really unsure about Bikex vs Croatia. Croatia seems to be a bit overambitious to question everybody at times but I feel like he has good intentions behind it eventhough at times he says A and does B which never looks good. But he tries to provoke mistakes by being aggressive and the way he does it makes me consider him more likely town than mafia. I also don’t subscribe to the opinion that a big argument like that has to be town vs mafia. It could also be town vs town but I also would not count out mafia vs mafia. Would be a very cheaky move but I could see them to pull it off (although way more unlikely than town vs town or town vs mafia).
There has been some talk about the detective so here is my take on it: We cannot really give a proper recommendation about it because we don’t know the reads he already has. Generally, I’d say a single mafia read might be enough to come out at this point as it gives a better starting point than everything we have right now. Particularly because we know that the doctor is still alive so the terrorist has to be used to bomb a detective and I would argue that even knowing who the terrorist (and there is a 50% chance he is not the mafia read by the detective) is would help us getting a better sense for what exactly happened so far. However, it depends on whether the detective believes he might get him lynched without it and how helpful his other reads are. Two (or more) mafia reads of course are an instant claim. A detective with no mafia reads so far should remain hidden until he has more reads or until we get to a situation where a misslynch would mean defeat. If someone knows he is CC of course instantly post. The doctor will of course stay hidden.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Raziz |
Posted on 11-10-2017 21:49
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Domestique
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Is there another person i would lynch first? There's an argument for several people, like ryant who still lives despite regular concern. Or someone quieter like Raziz or Knockout who're avoiding most discussion.
Lynch Croatia
Well, these discussions always take place at about 3am my time... |
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| Raziz |
Posted on 11-10-2017 21:54
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Domestique
Posts: 552
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trekbmc wrote:
Otherwise Raziz catches my eye as quite suspicious he made the mafia suffer last game by not being active and this game he posts often with long posts but never including heaps of substance.
For me, there are a lot of variables going against me in terms of just being able to post when people are discussing. So, I tried to make more of a conscious effort to post more and try to help the town win the game in this particular mafia installment. Perhaps, I haven't been the most useful yet, but I would like to continue providing my thoughts. Unfortunately though, the only real times when I can provide a long sort of constructive post is when it's like 2-5 in the morning for a lot of people.
Anyways, that post will be coming soon as I am busy with school for the next 6 hours. |
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| weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 22:01
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Protected Rider
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What do I think? Well, jseadog is very suspicious. He’s keen for information on everyone else, but suddenly turns on the defensive when his name is mentioned as suspicious.
Lynch jseadog
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
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"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 22:56
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Grand Tour Champion
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weirdskyfan64 wrote:
What do I think? Well, jseadog is very suspicious. He’s keen for information on everyone else, but suddenly turns on the defensive when his name is mentioned as suspicious.
Lynch jseadog
Its suspicious that you only talk about me. What about everyone else and your opinion on them. Lynching me without a better reason would be a poor decision. I still can't come to a final decision but for now I will stick with my initial thoughts:
Lynch ryant
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 11-10-2017 23:15
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Classics Specialist
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In the order that Jandal posted the names still in the game, this is how likely I think it is that each person would have been saved by the doctor in the last night.
Raziz - unlikely, he hasn't been active enough in the discussion for it to be predictable enough that he would be killed.
Bikex - a possibility, has provided some useful analysis but I don't think it's likely to have been him. Unless he hit on something I don't think taking him out makes sense as I don't think it would cast enough doubt on anyone else to influence lynch votes. As far as I can tell there would be more obvious people the doctor would try and save.
trekbmc - Most Likely, Confirmed Townie, only person who mafia know won't be lynched and will have to be killed by them to win, free to speculate without a mafia accusation coming back at him which would be seen as dangerous if he hits the right names. Clearly a strong player in general from previous game and not someone I expect the mafia to leave unchecked
Croatia14 - unlikely, seems to have good analysis skills but opinion on him seems too mixed for him to be both the target and guessable for the doctor, I just can't see both mafia going for him and him being guessed as the target.
knockout - A possibility, known as a strong player, taking him out would cast a shadow over me and possibly used as a ploy to get me lynched in retaliation seeing as he has tried to call me out all game.
sammyt93 - A possibility, I've been active, calling people into discussions and providing my analysis, taking me out would prove I am town and cast a negative light on knockout, making his continued questioning of me look very suspect and possibly leading to him getting lynched.
jseadog1 - unlikely, seems to me he isn't showing a solid direction to his thinking but trying to question everyone to find a lead.
ryant - unlikely, seems likely he would be kept alive to keep the distraction he caused at the start of the game going as long as possible.
Ian Butler - unlikely, only just started getting more active recently, I think we are at a stage now where an active player would get taken out to try and halt discussions rather than taking out someone who is becoming more active and adding an extra voice. I also think it would be harder to predict for the doctor than others.
weirdskyfan64 - very unlikely, hasn't been active at all aside from 5-6 one or two line posts and a lynch vote, the lack of information on him makes him too suspicious to be saved by the doctor for my liking.
TheManxMissile - unlikely, was a decent distraction because of the gifs early on, then has gone quieter, don't think it would be predictable enough for the doctor to guess correctly
baseballlover312 - unlikely, don't think it would be predictable enough for the doctor to guess correctly.
I've only bolded the names to make it easier to read, there is no vote for anyone in there despite the names being bolded. Each person has been evaluated under how easy it would be for the doctor to guess assuming that they are not the doctor saving themselves, knowing that the doctor doesn't know who is mafia.
SO my conclusion is that Trek is right to assume it was him saved as it would make the most sense as if the mafia killed him we are back to no confirmed and widely agreed on townie's which makes it harder to generate leads.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
