Well for obvious reasons I'll exclude myself. But baseball has been using good enough logic and involved enough to make me believe he is a safe player and as far as you go, you have been taking everything in depth enough at this point to make me think you are also safe,
The 3 that are questionable have been very defensive but haven't given solid reasons for why they shouldn't be considered safe.
I also want to reiterate that TMM should be considered pro town and I think people are overlooking this.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
Do you have a time that you are more than likely going to be able to get online on a daily basis? Maybe after finishing work, congratulations on your new job by the way, or early in the morning, or before you go to bed? If so then it might be worth sending a pm to Jandal letting him know what time that is as he has always seemed a fair host to me and I would be surprised if he didn't move the day/ night cycle finish time to allow you a chance to speak aswell.
Even though you have explained why you are struggling to post at the moment if you on time to remain unable to post b during most days then your potential input is lost and any insight or analysis you can give us is also lost to the discussion.
I think it seems important to be active this game as the mafia appear to me to be targeting less active players first, and your last post made it sound like you want to get involved and have a say, but are struggling to find the time to rather than not wanting to.
Plus if some of the other players are right in thinking that the mafia could be hiding by not posting much then even though you have explained why twice then they could end up poking he finger at you without you having a chance to defend yourself.
I don't mean this last comment as an accusations or to bring you to attention as potential mafia as I haven't heard enough from you to make a judgement but I don't want us lynching any townie's without them having a chance to at least try and defend themselves as like trek said, at this point in the game lunch votes are being used to generate discussion rather than because people necessarily believe the person they are citing for is mafia, hence why some votes change or end up being for no - one after an initial vote.
TLR it sounds like you want to contribute and I want to hear your contribution even if you are struggling for time at the moment due to other circumstances as I want to hear what everyone thinks as I believe the more opinions are shared the more likely it is that we will either uncover a mafia member or cause one to slip up and show some inconsistency and someone not contributing to finding a mafia member and not voting ends up being suspicious by lack of information we can gather on them or from them when everyone else left in the game at that point is at least discussing even if they are what they claim to be or not.
Thanks, already discussed that with Jandal, could make something work. Yes, I am happy to discuss and find out whom the mafia could be and get more of a foot-hold into this game...
Perhaps, it was a trigger option for the mafia to go for Marco as he has been a consistent player beforehand. They could have been in a dead end without enough conclusive evidence to accuse anyone else of being a key town member and so it was possibly logical for them to go for him.
Edited by Raziz on 08-10-2017 03:58
After a good night's sleep (read: too short since I have to get up for a work-related thing on a Sunday ) and reading up to what happened, I have this:
At first sight, it doesn't look like we learn much from the mafia's killings. But it may appear to be random, we can actually pick up a few things, I think. Follow my reasoning and correct me if I'm wrong:
1. The mafia likes the way the discussions are going and are not in great peril. Which is a plus point for ryant, TMM in my book. Like jseadog I believe TMM to be on our side. The mafia might well be people who haven't been mentioned (a lot) yet. Maybe our attention has been placed on the wrong people.
2. The mafia seem to know what they are doing. I only followed last game from afar and I'm a first time player, so I might be wrong here but I do sense that they are picking off strong players from previous seasons. I'd like to see a list (or I'll make one when I get home on a reasonable hour) of people who've played this for 'x' seasons and who are seen as strong players.
3. The only way my first point could be wrong, is if the mafia is playing it extremely cool and ryant is actually mafia. I don't know ryant enough to know if this is a possibility.
Besides that, while I won't discredit his actual list, I do find it interesting that Bikex simply throws some names out there without any reasons. Like I said before, I'd love to hear them.
It could be to set up himself as trustworthy. I mean, a mafia player I could easily make a list of people who they "think" are pro-town and, in fact, they'll be pro-town.
Ok, sorry Hillis, I really pushed for your lynch and apparently it was the wrong thing.
I'm kind of at a dead-end now, ryant is the 'obvious' next lynch but I'm really not sure about him. Anybody who jumped on the Lynch Hillis bandwagon is suspicious, but then again, there are definitely some townies on that train.
Finally, I have now realised that I have sufficient evidence to prove beyond doubt that I am a townie, so I will do so:
I was a mason, alongside Aquarius. Aquarius is dead so my power is now largely useless. However, it means that I am a townie beyond doubt. If somebody (or two people) counter claim and say that they are mason(s), you can lynch me and once you see that I am a townie, you can lynch them straight after because there is no way they aren't mafia.
If I was lying and really a mafia, the 'real' mason would definitely claim to get me lynched because it's worth sacrificing a mason's anonymity to catch a mafia. But since nobody else will claim to be a mason (because I am the only mason left), it proves conclusively that I am a townie.
Why am I claiming now?
1. Because it holds more weight early in the game, once more players are dead there is a chance that both masons are dead, now it's extremely unlikely that both have already died.
2. I don't want to give the mafia a chance to claim masons later, because if I don't claim and then Aquarius and I both die without ever revealing, the mafia might boldly claim to be masons.
3. I was really keen to get hillis lynched which probably makes me seem suspect (as bikex mentioned) removing the question of whether or not I am mafia removes a distraction.
Ian Butler wrote:
After a good night's sleep (read: too short since I have to get up for a work-related thing on a Sunday ) and reading up to what happened, I have this:
At first sight, it doesn't look like we learn much from the mafia's killings. But it may appear to be random, we can actually pick up a few things, I think. Follow my reasoning and correct me if I'm wrong:
1. The mafia likes the way the discussions are going and are not in great peril. Which is a plus point for ryant, TMM in my book. Like jseadog I believe TMM to be on our side. The mafia might well be people who haven't been mentioned (a lot) yet. Maybe our attention has been placed on the wrong people.
2. The mafia seem to know what they are doing. I only followed last game from afar and I'm a first time player, so I might be wrong here but I do sense that they are picking off strong players from previous seasons. I'd like to see a list (or I'll make one when I get home on a reasonable hour) of people who've played this for 'x' seasons and who are seen as strong players.
3. The only way my first point could be wrong, is if the mafia is playing it extremely cool and ryant is actually mafia. I don't know ryant enough to know if this is a possibility.
Besides that, while I won't discredit his actual list, I do find it interesting that Bikex simply throws some names out there without any reasons. Like I said before, I'd love to hear them.
It could be to set up himself as trustworthy. I mean, a mafia player I could easily make a list of people who they "think" are pro-town and, in fact, they'll be pro-town.
Those are my thoughts so far.
After day 1 nobody besides me even considered that he might be mafia in a post right? So why would the actual discussions be in favor of him?
Interesting stuff by trek. Opposed to that jseadog is either action really suspicious, mostly bandwagoning all the time, or is a really good townie we should save ourselves. Either way, I guess we may should lynch him soon if the mafia doesn't do that.
Knockout is a difficult question. I know he's very busy right now, still he did set up some big (helpful) posts. To cover the impression he gave from last season? In my eyes it's not the same. The question is: Due to being busy or due to having no clue - or or due to being mafia and not completely able to cover that?
My interest list now consists in: TMM, bikex, jseadog, knockout.
Well i'm going to open the days voting with a Lynch Nobody. I can see arguments for lynches on a variety of people... well everyone really... But i've got no clue!
Croatia has tried to take me out consistently, which obviously i don't like. Such focus on me, perhaps i found a worrying thread against the mafia? Certainly it's suspicious to me, but then i don't want to die!
Ok this is beyond suspicious! I don't know what reason you've got to lynch me yet again. Fellow townsfolk, you can't stand by and let this happen. One person advocates for peace, not to kill an innocent and further weaken our position, and one is set on a personal vendetta under mafia instruction!
Join me in a neutral position of peace, don't further damage our position as the town!
TheManxMissile wrote:
Ok this is beyond suspicious! I don't know what reason you've got to lynch me yet again. Fellow townsfolk, you can't stand by and let this happen. One person advocates for peace, not to kill an innocent and further weaken our position, and one is set on a personal vendetta under mafia instruction!
Join me in a neutral position of peace, don't further damage our position as the town!
Hell no, it's very suspicious to want to lynch nobody at this moment looking at our current record. Waiting and letting the mafia do what they want would be straight dumb.
Our current record of 100% wrong on lynchings, yeah lets continue that and be wrong twice by lynching myself and giving the mafia even more advantage in terms of numbers.
I have a few people in mind as suspicious, but as we're now down to more active members remaining i think tonights mafia move will be the most interesting yet and give us a real opening view on the remaining play. No longer can they pick off the quieter ones, so now they have to start thinking about who to kill.
Lets not make that easier but taking out each other. Because if we're wrong again and the mafia kill, it's 3v8 and the game could end in two days time! By lynching no-one we have at least 3 days and the mafia is forced into making bolder killings.
If we have to lynch, i think you've nominated yourself. A good time for the mafia to step in a try to guide voting when everyone is so unsure. Set up the initial idea and get others to bandwagon and kill a valuable member of the town.
Lynching nobody is not an option this late in the game when we haven't properly gotten any mafia yet. That's suspicious to me from TMM.
However, I'm still going with ryant for today. Reverse psychology could literally go on forever, so using that as an excuse just doesn't work for me after 5 editions. We've lost games in the past for falling into that pattern. So to me, ryant seems like he's just talking in circles. Claiming the role still makes no sense to me. Obviously I can't say it for sure, but I'm only more convinced now than last time, and I already voted for it last time, so I'm sticking with it now.
Lynch ryant
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Do not make a mistake again and lynch TMM... I tried to tell you with hillis and I am telling you again with TMM.. As far as Ryant I'm not sure but we can't just sit here again and lynch nobody.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
sammyt93 wrote:
Is this not similar to how you figured it who was the detective last game but suggested before there is a false claim like there was last time?
Oh and I'm not sure if I said it previous or not but in my opinion finding ryant's role would be useful as he is either town or the godfather, I'm not sure which and wouldn't be able to guess either way without more evidence but I don't think he is either the terrorist or the mafia goon as he would be found out as soon as he is investigated. At the moment I am leaning toward him being town but there is a little bit of suspicion still.
I assume you mainly refer to this proposed strategy: https://pcmdaily.c...st_1245740 . That was imo a very different situation. I'll try to explain it again:
Try to put yourself into my position:
- i am a normal townee with no special role
- trek claims to be detective, trek claims that he got a mafia read on me
-> i know trek cannot be detective but only CC or mafia (any other townee would have absolutely no reason to pull that stunt). Also I pretty quickly got the feeling that trek is more likely mafia than town because of how he tried to sound cautious.
My goal is of course that the town wins - not necessarily that i will survive till the end. For that it means that if i die early that is no problem as long as the town in general benefits. That means:
- If my death means that a mafia member will die it will be worth it.
- If my death means that the detective knows for sure that he is the detective that's also okay.
- If the detective sacrifizes himself to save me (posting his town-read on me would mean that he doesnt live long - either by night kill or terrorist) that would be a catastrophe for the town as they get no benefit from the detective
Spoiler
I didn't even consider that i would survive the situation without another detective claim. In fact i would probably have pushed to lynch the suggested mafia member if it would be anyone but me
Because of that my actions & proposed strategies after his claim had two goals in mind:
1. Protect the detective so that he doesnt claim his role (what some others tried to call for)
2. Get trekbmc lynched. Either he's mafia or getting him lynched tells the detective that he is indeed the detective and not the confused cop.
Everything that happened last season and every analysis of mine should be read with that background in mind.
sammyt93 wrote:
Well 8 town to 3 mafia would still be a good ratio for the detective to find the mafia. The biggest risk as I see it would be either the detective or the doctor getting killed by the mafia in that time and that might be too big of a risk to take, that said there is a risk of that before they find any mafia members anyway even if we don't follow my idea.
8 town vs 3 mafia would still be an okay ratio for the detective to find the mafia if we had leads or mafia reads by the detectives that could be posted. However, your plan basically suggests that we don't do anything to find clues anymore for the next three days:
- Don't get any further reads because the detectives waste their nights investigating the same person over and over again.
- Don't get the chance to "randomly" hit on a mafia member by voting
- Don't get any bandwaggons that can be analyzed.
So basically we would then be in the same situation as today. Very limited leads. Which would really screw us if the detective is killed by then. Also your plan's goal was only to understand who detective and CC are iirc ? Well, I bet we can work it out anyway in 3 days when both are still alive and post all their reads. Chances are we might have lynched some of their reads already by then (or night-kills) or we can work it out by simply looking at them. The CC has a much higher chance to get mafia reads than the detective (coin flips vs 2/number of players left) so if you get many mafia reads you are more likely to be CC than detective unless you're much more sure in your reads than investigating random players.
In fact I believe that everyone following your plan would be so bad for the town that i'm evaluating the chance that you tried to sabotage us with it.
OK boys, I know I've played very different in the past as a town member but still the rhetoric of "OMG he is soo suspicious" is confusing to me. By me stating that I am a normal town member I am either masquerading as one as I am a more powerful role or mafia ( but I am neither) . But also I could be used as a good foil for other roles like the detective or doctor to stay in the dark for longer by attracting this attention to myself and not on others for no reason. I disagree heavily with Bbl's reasoning that we must lynch right now which does him no favours in my opinion. I also lynch no one
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
I have posted my list, because I think the current discussion doesn't lead us anywhere. Maybe ryant or TMM are mafia, but I don't think that it can be read from their behaviour. There are others that should be looked into and I kind of based this on the voting behaviour. jseadog's and bbl's comments seemed honest to me, even if I don't agree on lynching ryant yet. Why trek seemed suspicious was already explained and I'm inclined to believe his mason story. All weirdskyfan has done so far was agreeing with the majority, possibly he did that to just not to attract attention? I understand that knockout has done very much constructive posts for the town people in the last game. Imo he is very hard to read, that's why I included him in my list to possibly provoke a reaction.
What makes me think about Croatia is why he is so determined to lynch TMM. Why did he vote to lynch him, when it was basically already decided that it will be either ryant or hillis? He must've known that this won't change anything. Did he do that to show that he isn't voting out a town member (hillis), which would be the natural action by a member of the mafia. To me TMM doesn't seem overly suspicious so imo Croatia knows more about him by being either detective or mafia. I think at least one of Croatia and TMM are mafia.
I doubt ryant is mafia, so I'd prefer the lynch votes to go in another direction. At first I thought that lynching someone now would be the right decision, but thinking about it, sammyt might be right that lynching noone would be smarter. I doubt the next move of the mafia will tell us more, but at least it will increase the chance that the one lynched next time belongs to the mafia. And looking at the numbers we will have the same amount of chances to lynch someone if we start tomorrow and at the same time always lynch a town member:
N
8
3
7
3
D
7
3
6
3
N
6
3
5
3
D
5
3
4
3
N
4
3
3
3
D
3
3
These are the ratios if we move on with the game and always lynch a town member. The left number is the number of town members and right the number of mafias. The numbers are always the ratios after the Night(N) or Day(D) on that we lynched someone. You see if we don't lynch someone now (left 2 columns), we only loose after the third lynch hitting a pro town guy, the same amount of lynches we'd have when lynching someone now, but always with lower chances to get someone from the mafia.
Why did he vote to lynch him, when it was basically already decided that it will be either ryant or hillis? He must've known that this won't change anything. Did he do that to show that he isn't voting out a town member (hillis), which would be the natural action by a member of the mafia. To me TMM doesn't seem overly suspicious so imo Croatia knows more about him by being either detective or mafia. I think at least one of Croatia and TMM are mafia.
Sadly that is not true, I'm neither. I was just sticking to my proposal I gave from round 1 on, I don't see anything bad in this.
Well, I didn't care about timing. As German know best, voting for what you believe in is better than not voting. For me, at that point, TMM was the most suspicious person. He is still due to his action. To be honest though, your current sentense makes me wonder about that though in combination with what a certain member stated about TMM a couple of sites ago. Which leads me to the thoughts, that if TMM is mafia the certain person may be mafia too.
With your last sentense it seems a lot like you want to use the situation we are having that I am constantly accusing TMM, and want to play this out for the further game.
My question is now: Why would a mafia member try to come out with a theory like that right now? Well, two options: 1. He wants to not be the lynched because of less contribution. 2. We are at the moment on our way to lynch a mafia guy and he wants to save that person laying the focus somewhere different. Both seems reasonable.
Also: The statement at the end was awful in my opinion. If you have the option to wait for something that may change the odds from 3:8 to 3:7, but instead take a killed townie, then I can't see how this helps us in any sort. If I a allowed to do this, I would like to change my vote in favor of lynching bikex. But I may change it again to lynch ryant later, because that is probably better than lynching nobody.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
If you have a suspicion about another person. Why won't you tell who it is? Saying you suspect someone, but not telling who it is, will only help the mafia.
I was confused by your obsession about lynching TMM, without there being much evidence to support your claim. I found that suspicious and stated my oppinion. Now you suddenly start to panic and change your mind. Pointing back at me after that, because I stated that you could be mafia, doesn't make you less suspicious in my book. Also suddenly you don't vote for what you believe in like you said in the beginning of your post but would change your vote just for the sake of lynching someone. As a German, is voting for something you don't believe in better than not voting?
He wants to not be the lynched because of less contribution.
If I had stayed back and said nothing I would not have been lynched in any way. All persons that were in the focus of the lynch mob did post quite a bit. The only fraction killing people that contribute only little is the Mafia so far. Did you mix up the two parties you are part of the decision on who to kill?
And yes I don't mind a killed townie, if that increases our chance of lynching a mafia guy. You make it sound like I'm risking a real life of an innocent townie.
The risk with going with no lynch is that the mafia will incite a townie into voting against one of their own, but if that doesn't happen the chance of the town is better when lynching noone now, that's why I vote to lynch nobody, despite finding some players overly suspicious, especially Croatia.
Well, because the person could well have a big role in the towns team, which is more likely.
Pointing back at me after that, because I stated that you could be mafia
I didn't point back at you just for that, I already mentioned before that you are on my list of suspicious people before. Your statement that either TMM or me has to be mafia raised you up to #1 in my books, and that is why
Also suddenly you don't vote for what you believe in like you said in the beginning of your post but would change your vote just for the sake of lynching someone. As a German, is voting for something you don't believe in better than not voting?
I now again vote for the person I believe in most that he is a mafia member, and that is you. As a German, eventhough you are 100% sure with it you vote for the party you believe most in right?
If I had stayed back and said nothing I would not have been lynched in any way.
For this round yes, for the next day round I'm not so sure on that. You are a very intelligent person, and very well capable of thinking in advance about that and thus take action.
And yes I don't mind a killed townie, if that increases our chance of lynching a mafia guy.
The odds are not growing significantly better, and even more they are in no way justifying to hand a round to the mafia.
but if that doesn't happen the chance of the town is better when lynching noone now
How? What do you expect will happen until the next day round that improves the situation for the town?
I vote to lynch nobody, despite finding some players overly suspicious, especially Croatia.
If I'm so suspicious for you, then why don't you vote against me? I mean, we are that less people alive right now that chances of hitting the mafia with our current knowledge are pretty decent.
R it sounds like you want to contribute and I want to hear your contribution even if you are struggling for time at the moment due to other circumstances as I want to hear what everyone thinks as I believe the more opinions are shared the more likely it is that we will either uncover a mafia member or cause one to slip up and show some inconsistency and someone not contributing to finding a mafia member and not voting ends up being suspicious by lack of information we can gather on them or from them when everyone else left in the game at that point is at least discussing even if they are what they claim to be or not.
) and reading up to what happened, I have this:
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
