I will certainly be following a fellow Spanish team with a lot of interest in whether or not Valls can dominate the division. In past seasons, he would be by far the best Climber but he does have some tough competition this season from the likes of Eastman and Penasa so hopefully he still shines through. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't manage your Top 5 and 10 goals.
He should manage over 400 points but it does of course depend on the luck in certain situations as to whether he manages closer to 500.
@LLS Yeah, unless Valls crashes in those goal races, I count with already 3 accomplished goals. And his total amount of points will be key for achieving our top15 goal. If he can't go over 300-350, i'll be in danger of failing that goal
It's time to announce who are the 8 riders that will race in Cuba the 10th of January, in the first ever official race for Repsol - HondaTeam.
As you can see in the profile of the race, is a hilly route. The race consists of 5 laps around a circuit in San Cristobal, which has two climbs, and in the latter the race will finish, with a total of 187,6 km of racing to start the season.
We will bring here our A-Team for hills, with the Cunego-Gilbert duo fighting for a top10 place, which would be a great success for the team. Not that there are too many points to win in this race, but we want to start with the right feet the season.
We think of Agostini as a wildcard for a great result here. His impressive back-ups will make him be stronger than his actual hil stat, and with a good day he can easily out-perform our leading duo.
The rest of the team is filled with other decent puncheur, like Fernando or Valverde, a mis-placed climber Nakane and two youngester like Van Niekerk and Rodriguez, who will be making their MG debut
Possible outcomes
Realistic outcome for our team (in terms of places): 1 Top 15 + 2 Top 25
Realistic outcome for our team (in terms of points): 11
Optimistic outcome for our team (in terms of places): 1 Top 5 + 1 Top15 + 1 Top20
Optimistic outcome for our team (in terms of points): 30
Croatia14 wrote:
I'd say one Top10 is very much realistic. Your team is perfectly set for a two-way attacking race, hopefully PCM executes it like that.
As is the first race of the season, there's still of big uncertainity in how PCM will treat our hilly squad. But my riders seems to be just below the favourites barrier, so there's always the hope that they won't ride a quiet race and cause some havoc in order to get a decent result
I'm with Croatia on this, with Cunego and Gilbert combo, you'd deserve to be a little disappointed if one of them doesn't make the top 10, maybe even better depending on the start-list.
Given my most recent HQ update in parallel, I like your analytical approach to considering points accrued as a race outcome metric.
Scorchio wrote:
I'm with Croatia on this, with Cunego and Gilbert combo, you'd deserve to be a little disappointed if one of them doesn't make the top 10, maybe even better depending on the start-list.
Given my most recent HQ update in parallel, I like your analytical approach to considering points accrued as a race outcome metric.
I really expect that all good puncheurs to be here, although some of them might miss the race due his teams not racing it. But yes, I should agree with both of you that a top10 won't be a surprise.
Anyway, don't take the "Realistic outcome" as something i'd be satisfied with
Could certainly see Gilbert exceed expectations at San Cristobal, it'll be just short enough of a race that stamina shouldn't play too much into it (from my untrained eye). I'm sure, as you mention, that several other top puncheurs will be at the race. It'll be a fun way to kick off the season!
Without digging to deep at first glance I would expect both to be about 10-15 ranked for a race like this, and with no PCT teams (if I understand https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....st_1263859 this correct,
I would safely assume that one of them will be in top 10, having two horses is always great with an unpredictable AI.
@Booker It would actually help Gilbert (and Agostini) that stamina comes into play, but given that in PCM15 it acts only after 200km, it's barely in that limit
@Tamijo As I told Croatia, it's the first race of the season. Still unknown how IA will treat our riders, but having a rider in the top10 would not be surprising
Can't wait to see you guys make your debut, could be very nice for Gilbert and Cunego! I'd really like it if stamina has a big role too Very nice preview as well, nice one mate!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
jandal7 wrote:
Can't wait to see you guys make your debut, could be very nice for Gilbert and Cunego! I'd really like it if stamina has a big role too Very nice preview as well, nice one mate!
Thanks! Hopefully we'll see Repsol and Xero kicking ass together
Before the "real" season kicks off in Cuba, 5 of our riders will be present in the Continental Championships. None of them are expected to have a big impact in those riders, and all of them will be in domestique duties for their countries' leaders
IGNACIO JESUS PRADO
The Mexican rider, loaned by PT team Moser - Sygic, will be our only rider that will take part in both TT and RR races. In the TT we expect that he can finish inside top50, and in the RR he should ride in support of Lemus
ROBERT POWER
The young Australian rider loaned by Jayco-Cobra9 will ride his first ever MG race in Victoria. With so much Aussies in the race, it's unclear who will he have to ride for, but hopes that he can join the early break are there
HIDETO NAKANE & NIDUSH NIRANTHA FERNANDO
The Asian RR is the only one where we will have 2 riders. Fernando will ride together with his former and future team-mates (he is loaned in by Ayubowan! ), and Nakane is the rider who should be closest to leadership than any other rider of our team. But anyway he is expect to support Meiji climbers, Iino and Hiratsuka
RAFAEL VALLS
Rafa is obviously our best climber, but that doesn't mean that we will be able to shine in this race, as he will have to work for Angel Madrazo, one of the world's best climbers
The season is about to start in only a couple of days, and in the last couple of weeks some managers have revealed their thoughts about how will the CT season end.
Most of the predictions see us in the middle part of the CT ranking, including my own prediction. Let's see the rest, and if they have any comment on our team
The first preview we have is SN's. His mathematical method places us in 13th.
Also, in his terrain's evaluations we have the third best squad for stage races, 10th for hilly races, and unsurprisingly, the worst sprinter squad
Jandal, in what for me it's the best CT prediction that has been made this year, put us in our "favourite" place, 11th.
In his prediction we are placed in the "Green teams", those who should fight for the lower-top10 spots. You really need to read this masterpiece he wrote about my team. I really had a great laugh when reading it
Abhishek has a similar method to SN, although it looks like his formula weight more the back-up stats than SN. Curiously, he predict us in the same place as SN, in 13th.
What's better is that he puts us as the second best stage racer team, third for climbers, and again last in sprinters
Marco's prediction is the one that predict us lower, 19th. Given that he is based in OVL, and the range of leaders/depth/domestiques he got, it's clearly against our team strenghts, with a solid leader, and a few riders that should complement him in point scoring
Croatia's uses his hidden "coeficients" to predict us in our favourite position, 11th.
He also made a "sustainabilty" ranking, based on how our current riders will be in 2020, which doesn't look very good for us. I always say that this is a two-year project for promotion, not a long-term project
Vien's gone crazy with his prediction, and has places in 6th. When asked about it, he replied that he believes that Valls has no competition is mountains, and that would bring us to that high place in standings
Tamijo uses his "Tamipoints" to place us in 16th, something we wouldn't like to see at all. He also explained to me that as i have a low amount of riders who can actually score, the formula rated us low because it rates higher the depth/variety
And the final predictions is Knockout "season simulation". This puts us in 11th place. Our lovely 11th . In his simulation, he gives us a 18,3% of finishing in that place, and having more than 10% from 9th to 13th. We even have a 1% chance of direct promotion by his simulations!
After all predictions have been put in the table, is time to analize the data.
In four times we are predicted 11th, including my own prediction. Then two times in 13th, and once in 6th, 9th, 16th and 19th.
This gives an average of 12th place, but is the 11th best average in the division. Also the median is the 11th place. So everything looks like we'll finish in 11th place in our debut season, and fourth between the new teams
Expectations exceded in our first ever race in Cuba. As we said in the Preview, where we also low-balled our chances, we would happy with something around 15-20 points from this race. And thanks to Gilbert's and Valverde's perfomances we have scored 22 points, which put us on 5th place in the provisional CT standings.
Philippe was able to stay with Roux's group (the eventual winner of the race) until the second to last climb of the day, where he had to stay on a second group. He end up winning that group sprint (well, he actually put some time between him and eighth placeman) to take seventh.
Meanwhile, Alejandro was on the not so early breakaway, and found himself in the very reduced group of favourites with only 10 km to go. He would eventually finish in 13th place, taking 7 points in the proccess. He has already exceded our points tally expectations for him this season
@knockout Gilbert was where i could expect him, and Valverde... just wow I could expect him to go in breakaway in this type of races, but not that he would able to keep up with the pace until the very end. It also makes up for a disappointing race from Cunego. No worries in the classic about IA picking Gilbert as leader, but i wouldn't like to happen in races like San Luis or Britain
Next HQ update will be Vuelta al Tachira preview, but i can't post it until the Discussion thread is up, as i need the startlist to be published to post it.
If you wonder, i'll do "big previews" of all mountain races where Valls takes part in this season, the rest of race preview will come in a "monthly basis"
It's time to announce who are the 8 riders that will race in Venezuela for the first ever stage race for Repsol - HondaTeam.
This race marks our first Goal of the season, and the only Win Goal. The team is obviously being led by Rafa Valls, and on his shoulders is the responsability to win the race.
Rafa will be asisted by two strong climbers as Rafael Serrano and Hideto Nakane. These two riders will have to protect and support Valls during the mountain and hilly stages.
Then we have a core of riders who can be useful in all terrains like Jaime Roson, Ignacio Jesus Prado, Robert Power and Aidan van Niekerk. For both Jaime and Robert is their official MG debut, although Power already raced in Oceanian C'ships.
And finally we have Riccardo Stacchiotti, as our (cough) sprinter (cough). In the first 3 stages he might get us a top10 place, as the sprinter field quality might be the lowest of all season
Next thing in the preview is to publish how i rate the GC rider chances for this race. I've created a formula combining all the stat that will be needed to compete in this race (all but tt, prl, cob and sta) and this has given me a "Race Strenght Coefficient"
Valls
76,31
Penasa
75,92
Cataldo
75,72
Bennett
75,58
Suaza
75,46
Hacecký
75,14
Karnulin
74,98
Antón
74,19
Destribois
74,18
Rujano
74,13
Pozzovivo
74,09
Manfredi
74,08
Atapuma
74,07
Medvedev
74,05
Salinas
74,01
Bardet
74,01
Serrano
73,98
Solis
73,87
Pozzo
73,81
De Marchi
73,8
This give us Valls as clear GC favourite over Penasa, Cataldo and Bennett, the other great climbers that can also perform well in hilly stages. With this, i can also give more precise my "Realistic" and "Optimistic" outcome for the races, in both result and points achieved
Possible outcomes
Realistic outcome for our team (in terms of places): Win GC + 1 stage
Realistic outcome for our team (in terms of points): 89
Optimistic outcome for our team (in terms of places): Win GC + 2 stages + Points + KoM
Optimistic outcome for our team (in terms of points): 132
Very nice preview as well, nice one mate!
