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[PCT] Valio - DeLaval | Renewals
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 26-09-2017 19:02
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Classics Specialist
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Have you thought about Classics training for Kaislavuo?
It would improve both his Cobble and Hill stats and it looks like taking him down that route would be more useful as none of the other cobble domestiques you are training seem to be good on the hilly cobbles, only the flat ones.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-09-2017 19:35
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Team Leader
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sammyt93 wrote:
Have you thought about Classics training for Kaislavuo?
It would improve both his Cobble and Hill stats and it looks like taking him down that route would be more useful as none of the other cobble domestiques you are training seem to be good on the hilly cobbles, only the flat ones.
I have considered it and might end up doing a mix between cobbles and classics. The thing is that due to his low potential I can't give him the extra hill without sacrificing cobbles along the way.
He might end up 70/73 in stead of 69/74 though. I'll be watching the difference in performance between my cobbled helpers this year closely to decide which way to go in the details of Kaislavuo as he definitely is one of the riders with most different options that make sense.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:05
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 26-09-2017 20:06
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Team Leader
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A pleasure to follow your team, can't wait for the first monthly cow.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 28-09-2017 16:36
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Tamijo wrote:
A pleasure to follow your team, can't wait for the first monthly cow.
Thanks. While we wait for teams from around the world to get their seasons planned have this:
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 12-10-2017 20:43
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Team Leader
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Cowtinental Championships
 European B Road Race
Once again the new season kicks off with continental championships and once again our strongest presence is in the European B Road Race
However since they will be ridden in mountainous terrain we have low expectations.
Paajanen did Finland honour by forming todays early break with Christofi from Cyprus.
Of course they wouldn't go on to fight for the win but they did manage to hold on for a long time with Paavo ultimately finishing in the 2nd group.
Both Lehtinen and Hasta were with the favourites heading into the final round of the circuit, but as expected they had to let go when the big guns really opened up.
Results | 1 | Toms Skujins | Latvia | 5h48'57 | | 19 | Sakari Lehtinen | Finland | + 4'28 | | 23 | Paavo Paajanen | Finland | s.t. | | 24 | Branislav Samoilev | Belarus | + 5'36 | | 27 | Gökhan Hasta | Turkey | s.t. | | 34 | Marcus Faglum Karlsson | Sweden | + 8'13 | | 45 | Ingvar Omarsson | Iceland | + 10'42 | | 58 | Jesse Kaislavuo | Finland | + 13'18 | | 74 | Joonas Henttala | Finland | + 15'44 | | 98 | Philip Lindau | Sweden | + 22'28 | | - | Matti Manninen | Finland | DNF | | - | Samuel Pökälä | Finland | DNF | | - | Jukka Vastaranta | Finland | DNF | | - | Olli Kulppi | Finland | DNF | | - | Kari Brynjolfsson | Iceland | DNF |
Edited by Atlantius on 13-07-2018 09:13
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 18-10-2017 08:12
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Team Leader
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Cowtinental Championships
 Asian Time Trial
Starting a time trial with Essa Khalifa as our only hope leads to low expectations.
And Essa lived up to that beating as many as 4 riders along the way.
Results | 1 | Ho-Ting Kwok | Hong Kong | 1h11'43 | | 68 | Essa Khalifa | United Arab Emirates | + 5'12 |
 African Time Trial
We were sligtly more optimistic going into the African TT than the Asian seeing as our new addition Ahmad Arissol isn't that bad a TT'er.
However he failed to get into the provisional top 10 even though 38 seconds of te fastest time isn't bad.
Results | 1 | Lotto Petrus | Namibia | 41'39 | | 26 | Ahmad Arissol | Seychelles | + 51 |
European Time Trial
Finland missed qualifying for th European TT by a small margin so all our hopees was on Paillot, who had made the selction for France.
He made it to the provisional podium, but once the real top riders went out he slipped a bit down the final rankings, but a solid show nonetheless.
Results | 1 | Jacob Fiedler | Germany | 33'27 | | 12 | Yoann Paillot | France | + 48 |
Edited by Atlantius on 13-07-2018 09:13
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 25-10-2017 18:53
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Team Leader
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Predicting the yield of the cowming season
Every year before season start there is a bunch of people doing their best to foresee the season to come.
This year it feels like there is even more than usual and now we'll sum up how they see us doing in the coming season.
One of the classic previews by the game master himself.
This system focuses on the top three in each terrain, which punishes us a bit for having very clear leaders and few back-up options in our main terrains
This is how he ranks us in different disciplines:
| Puncheur | 12 | | Stage Races | 24 | | Sprinter | 9 | | Time Trial | 2 | | Cobbles | 16 | | Climber | 22 |
We are rather surprised at how low we rank in terms of sprinting and puncheur, especially the first one should really go better for us as we have a stringer team around Lo Cicero than last year and Manninen have grown to a solid back-up option for when the biggest sprinters aren't around.
Our apparent climber/stage race weakness is a calculated gamble to get especially Lehtinen and Hasta to chase their luck from breakaways more often.
All in all he has us finishing on 21st place. I believe that the system underestimates our sprinting and hill leaders while the 2nd place in the TT-ranking probably is one or two spots higher than I would have put us.
For this one AbhishekLFC have come up with his own system to calculate team strength based on certain parameters and that system clearly doesn't favor us, but we'll take that after the summary:
| Leader Rankings | Coeff | Rank | | Stage Race | 72.91 | 26 | | Climber | 72.41 | 26 | | Puncher | 75.15 | 15 | | Sprinter | 76.48 | 15 | | Cobbles | 72.08 | 16 | | Time Trial | 76.52 | 12 |
| Depth Rankings | Coeff | Rank | | Stage Race | 72.38 | 24 | | Climber | 71.41 | 23 | | Puncher | 72.75 | 25 | | Sprinter | 73.48 | 15 | | Cobbles | 71.15 | 15 | | Time Trial | 73.58 | 8 |
I believe these have one major flaw being that they punish a structure with clear leaders and support a dual-leadership that often doesn't really result in the amount of points one would think.
Of course we are dependant on our leaders to perform but on the other hand they will have the full support of the team and our support riders have before proven much stronger than their numbers suggest.
Based on the coefficient he has us at 25th place, which is quite a few places lower than I think is fair.
After that he has made what he calls a "history based" prediction which (no offense Abishek) is way off in my opinion as that more or less assumes that Gautier will fail to score any points after his step down from PT (assuming other riders have a season similar or slightly worse than last year). That doesn't feel right.
However he also sees the downsides of the system himself:
AbhishekLFC wrote:
(...)I don't think Valio will relegate, but bad luck might push them into a dogfight. Netia too, are heavily dependent on a couple of riders and need them to perform and perhaps over-perform to survive.
Tamijo have come up with a system that rewards back-up leaders to a smaller extent but rewards diverse riders more than the other ones.
After Vastaranta beginning to get older we haven't really got a good leader for this system it seems (to no big surprise either).
None of our riders made the top list and subsequently this calculation has us at 24th place.
Another math-based prediction ranking every team from 0-100 (theoretically) while taking depth as well as breakaway likelyness into account.
This sees us finishing at 17th place which is around where we see ourselves finishing as well.
Croatia14 wrote:
From Novatek on the danger zone really begins. Novatek, Valio, Carlsberg, Isostar, Netia, Lierse and MOL are all very close to each other, and on top have a high variance. That means, that all of these teams can either turn their season into a safe mid-range one, or end up on the wrong end of the relegation battle. Out of those only Lierse looks pretty solid in terms of predictional points, but their solid level is one that may be a danger one.
This gathers together those that just want to make a quick guess based on undisclosed combinations of statistics and gut feeling.
| tastasol | 20 | | matt17br | 8 | | Bushwackers | 23 | | Marcovdw | 25 |
tastasol wrote:
20. Valio - Lo Cicero had a great season last year, but it will be a hard task repeating that. With Vastaranta now declining, Gautier is a good signing, but new good seasons from both to stay in PCT.
This is the by far most complex prediction. Made by our friend at Evonik-ELKO.
He took his subjective evaluation of our riders, but them to a formula and simulated 26 seasons.
As can be seen has has us on an average finihs of 20 with 29 % chance of making our top 15 goal and 72 % chance of aking the top 20 with 19th being the most frequent finishing position for us.
This preview is quite special in that it is the result of a discussion between a group of managers, which gives an interesting, and in my opinion, quite fair result.
Let's have a look at what they said about us:
Croatia14 wrote:
Valio - De Laval - Enigma, Success Story or Doomed?
Croatia14: Looking at the HQ alone you know that it has been a success story so far. Last year was a decent start, and now there hasn’t been much change in comparison to last season. Vastaranta has declined, but instead they added a great puncheur in Gautier and have Manninen as a better leadout than previously. The team has become significantly better, and as long as Lo Cicero can feed the beast I see a success story coming, if you count establishing a team with a hard regional focus in PCt as success which is exactly what I do.
knockout: It is no secret that Valio is one of my favourite teams. Establishing a team fully focussed on developing Finish cycling is a hugely ambitious project. Many of their lesser talents need three or four years of development before being just about worth a contract in CT or PCT. Sticking to them despite of that demands a lot of respect from me. Short term success or not depends a lot on Lo Cicero continuing to overperform. They cannot expect another 1000 points performance from him but will likely be in relegation danger for most of the season. But they also don’t need that as the general team looks way improved in comparison to last season. Kulppi replaces Breschel and Gautier adds a new quality to the team so if Lo Cicero can again score sth like 700 points then i see no reason why the success story shouldn’t continue.
jandal: I love Valio and their project and I think they’ve improved since last season with Kulppi keeping minor cobbles points alive and Gautier with points from new places as a very high quality puncheur. They will need to improve next season but if Il Toro fires on all cylinders again this team can keep the success up.
AbhishekLFC: Well, for me, they are both an enigma and a success story! In my limited time in the game, however much I’ve read, they’re going in the direction they wanted to when they started. So, that’s a success. Whether they’ll survive this year or not, that is the enigma!
trekbmc: I don’t really understand the relegation doubts for them, Gautier is a very strong rider due to his great acceleration stat, which makes him better than he looks, then Lo Cicero should really score pretty well, being a fatty sprinter doesn’t necessarily make you bad if your sprint stat is so good, so I think their survival will be pretty certain off those two. Of course, then they have a lot of Finns, which I believe to be a success in any case.
| Valio | Mountains | Hills | Sprints | Cobbles | Time Trials | Hybrids | | | AbhishekLFC | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 53,25 | | Croatia14 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 45,75 | | knockout | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 46,75 | | jandal7 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 53,75 | | trekbmc | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 46,5 | | Average | 1,6 | 6,8 | 8,2 | 2,8 | 6,2 | 2,8 | 49,2 |
After all their discussions we end up getting placed at 19th.
Cowclusions
My own preview formula had us ending up at 6th which is definitely too high, but however it still keeps us positive that we won't fall through completely.
Summing it all up we end with the conclusion that most have us finishing a bit lower than we hope for - but that was also the case last year so we are optimistic that we will outperform peoples expectations once again as this team is stronger than the one finishing 15th last year.
It won't be easy though and if that is what it comes to I warn CT 2019 that we'll be bringing a highly dangerous and motivated groups of Finns!
Edited by Atlantius on 13-07-2018 09:15
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-10-2017 19:24
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Nice summary of all predictions for the season. Most prediction had you avoiding relegation but in danger for a long time and that is what i think as well as i already wrote in the round table prediction.
Atlantius wrote:
This is the by far most complex prediction. Made by our friend at Evonik-ELKO.
He took his subjective evaluation of our riders, but them to a formula and simulated 26 seasons.
As can be seen has has us on an average finihs of 20 with 29 % chance of making our top 15 goal and 72 % chance of aking the top 20 with 19th being the most frequent finishing position for us.
I feel the wish to correct this text: The prediction sees you as 20th strongest team but the average finish position is 18th (or 17.82 if we want to be exact) in my simulations. Reason for the higher average position is that the difference to the teams above you is smaller than the difference to the teams in the relegation zone. 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 26-10-2017 17:04
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
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Knockout: Thanks. It's semantics but I'll take 18th over 20th
Cowtinental Championships and going down the udder
Asian Road Race
As this race was up and down Mount Fuji all day our only hope was that Essa Khalifa would get into the break of the day.
He didn't
Results | 1 | Sanju Dimantha Sembukutti | Sri Lanka | 6h36'34 | | 123 | Essa Khalifa | United Arab Emirates | + 40'13 |
African Road Race
As in Asia our only hope was for the break. In this race at least one of Ahmad Arissols compatriots made it into the break, but to be honert that doesn't really do much for us.
Results | 1 | Merhawi Kudus | Eritrea | 5h19'23 | | 91 | Ahmad Arissol | Seychelles | + 21'07 |
 Down Under Classic
As last season we start the season off in Asutralia at the very first day.
Last year it was also the scene of Lo Ciceros first win in our jersey and of course our hopes are for him to repeat that.
The boys spent all day at the front along with Orange ultimateely reeling in thee break shortly before the finish line preventing a late attack from a strong rouleur.
However it cost a lot of energy making both ours and Orange's train weaker than hoped for.
They gave it a good puch towards the finish and ultimately Ivano gets 5th in a very close finish.
Results | 1 | Óscar Guerao | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | 1h33'00 | | 5 | Ivano Lo Cicero | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 18 | Matti Manninen | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 23 | Troels Vinther | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 63 | Olli Kulppi | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 83 | Ahmad Arissol | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 98 | Sami Tiainen | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 102 | Gustav Höög | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. | | 110 | Joni Kanerva | Valio - DeLaval | s.t. |
Edited by Atlantius on 13-07-2018 09:16
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| knockout |
Posted on 26-10-2017 17:56
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Nice start of the season. Of course last season was better but 5th for Lo Cicero and further points by the leadout train is good as well. 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 29-10-2017 20:11
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
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Down Udder racing
Tour Down Under
The team stayed in Australia with our new puncher-hope Gautier in the leading role and Manninen free to try sprinting for his own and hopefully bagging a few minor results.
The first flat stage was quite uneventful for us as Manninen didn't take part in the sprint.
The second flat-rated stage had a slight uphill finish and Gautier decided to test his legs and proved good form by taking 9th on the stage.
Stage 3 marked the first taste of hills and Gautier had to admit that he wasn't quite up there with the biggest names.
However he showed amazing spirit by fighting his way back on the descent and finishing in the same time as the stage winner.
Stage 4 went as stage 2.
The queen stage started well for us with Icelandic champion Omarsson in the break.
Gautier hit the final climb well positioned at the front of the peloton
He kept his position until right before the finish line where he was passed by a single rider with the bonus seconds lifting him to 4th in the GC.
The final stage was for the sprinters and since Matti didn't feel up to that we sent Lindau in the break.
A good decision seeing as another rider from the break just managed to steal the win from the sprinters.
Results
| Best Rider | Place | Time | | Stage 1 | Cyril Gautier | 32nd | s.t. | | Stage 2 | Cyril Gautier | 9th | s.t. | | Stage 3 | Cyril Gautier | 6th | s.t. | | Stage 4 | Cyril Gautier | 14th | s.t. | | Stage 5 | Cyril Gautier | 2nd | s.t. | | Stage 6 | Philip Lindau | 30th | s.t. |
General Classification | 1 | Maurice Schreurs | Orange Pro Cycling | 17h29'54 | | 4 | Cyril Gautier | Valio - DeLaval | + 16 | | 41 | Philip Lindau | Valio - DeLaval | + 5'33 | | 61 | Matti Manninen | Valio - DeLaval | + 6'46 | | 73 | Ingvar Omarsson | Valio - DeLaval | + 9'52 | | 74 | Paavo Paajanen | Valio - DeLaval | + 9'56 | | 116 | Troels Vinther | Valio - DeLaval | + 16'00 | | 155 | Joni Kanerva | Valio - DeLaval | + 25'04 | | 166 | Gustav Höög | Valio - DeLaval | + 33'40 |
Edited by Atlantius on 13-07-2018 09:16
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-10-2017 20:31
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Gautier looked very strong on both hill stages. January is a good month for you
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 29-10-2017 21:08
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Fine outcome down under, time for a glass of milk and some cheese.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 30-10-2017 14:37
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
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Knockout: January is good to us (as we haven't got any mountains scheduled) and it was great to see that my trust in Gautier isn't completely misplaced.
Tamijo: Guess what's in our musettes?
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-10-2017 14:44
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Directeur Sportif
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Fantastic results in January!
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-10-2017 15:11
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Atlantius wrote:
Knockout: January is good to us (as we haven't got any mountains scheduled)
In that case we should start a petition to ban mountains from the other months as well
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-10-2017 15:18
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Directeur Sportif
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knockout wrote:
Atlantius wrote:
Knockout: January is good to us (as we haven't got any mountains scheduled)
In that case we should start a petition to ban mountains from the other months as well
I'll join for next season
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 03-11-2017 12:51
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
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This song was apparently a hit in Australia when it came out and it's about cows so what's not to line in a month where we went racing in Australia?
With our good experience from Australia last year we expanded out early Australian campaign by adding Tour Down Under to Down Under CLassic.
In Down Under Classic we and Orang wre forced to work very hard all day keeping the break within reach. Ultimately that hurt our train a bit but a strong spring still saw Lo Cicero take 5th place. Also Matti Manninen scored his first points ever, which is a great marker or him nd something that will hopeefully encourage him in future races.
In fact we had hoped that he would test his legs for himself in Tour Down Under, but that wasn't to be and in stead our focus was on our new puncher Gauitier.
He showed a great racing mind and while he fell just short of a stage win we are quite content with his 4th place in the GC.
Also it waas nice to see Omarsson and Lindau both trying their luck in breakaways.
All in all this leaves us on 8th place in the PCT rankings after the first season - a good start for our campaign!
 Risto Aaltio, Iberia - Team Degenkolb
Risto made his PT debut in China where both him and his team mates were in over their heads and got nothing more than a finish out of the day
Risto's Results | Race | | Result | Team | | PT |  Badaling International | | 169 | 69 |
A picture from Australia to mark our pleasant trip down under.
Gautier will continue a busy early season as he travels from Australia and straight to Poland, where he hopefully will continue his god form even though some of the hills might be a bit too long for his liking.
Much better suited to him is Strade Bianche where we have reason to hope he can really benefit from his great accelerarion.
Both Gautier and Paillot will even be joining our gang of talents in Paris - Nice. Obviously not to score points but it will be great for the youngsters to have some local profiles to guide them through the race and with a bit of luck they should be able to show the jersey as well.
February will also see the start of the cobbles season and we are really looking forward to seeing how Kulppi will do in his first races as leader. We don't expect him to battle for the wins, but a top 10 on a good day should be possible at least.
Lo Cicero will have a quiet month only racing Tour of Almaty.
February Calendar | Start | | Race | Days | Cat. | | 6-Feb |  | Omloop Het Nieuwsblad | 2 | PTHC | | 7-Feb |  | Tour de Pologne | 7 | HC | | 8-Feb | | Gent - Wevelgem | 2 | C1 | | 12-Feb |  | Viana do Castelo | 2 | C1 | | 14-Feb |  | Paris-Nice | 8 | PT | | 23-Feb |  | Strade Bianche | 2 | HC | | 23-Feb |  | Tour of Almaty | 2 | C1 |
Edited by Atlantius on 03-11-2017 12:57
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2017 13:06
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
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Gautier should do good in Poland, will be interesting to see him against Van Garderen there. Interesting to see Lo Cicero going to Tour of Almaty, a lack of fitting race days?
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-11-2017 13:10
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Really looking forward to meeting Kulppi in Omloop. I hope he can show himself a bit but don't think he will get many points against the top PT cobblers in the race. He will have for the first proper c1/hc cobbles for the first real action I guess
Another important month for Gautier and hopefully he can continue like in January
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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Vuelta al Tachira
Tour of Qatar
