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PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 28-09-2016 19:38
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Leonoel wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
So we've now decided that it might have more of an impact than we first thought and have chosen about 60 WT riders to edit it for and some CT level riders as well and to see how they go.
So you mean that it could have an even bigger impact than only the +1 on expected race day condition?
And while I'm here in the WT thread, I'd add three minor suggestions: increase in Juraj Sagan's COB stat - he did nearly all cobble classics this spring, did some important work and still finished 45th in Flanders and 51st in Roubaix (ok, from bigger groups, but still). Maybe 69 at least.
And Michael Kolar's COB stat (62 right now) should be a bit better as well, as he was part of the Tinkoff cobble classics team in most of the races this year.
Then, you might want to have a look at Mikaël Cherel's DOH stat (only 66) - the descent from the Col de Saisies he made with Bardet at the Tour was really impressive and it was Cherel leading Bardet down there for most of the descent.
That's what we're hoping for and a few samples on how we are doing them:
Froome: 1) Tour 2) Dauphine 3) Romandie
Sagan: 1) Tour 2) Gent-Wevelgem 3) Flanders
Nibali: 1) Giro 2) Tirreno 3) 0
Alaphilippe: 1) California 2) Fleche 3) LBL
EBH: 1) Tour Britain 2) Tour Norway 3) Eneco
Gerrans: 1) Santos 2) LBL 3) Quebec
Krujswijk 1) Giro 2) 0 3) 0
Cavendiah: 1) Tour 2) Qatar 3) Scheldeprijs
etc....
Also thanks for those recs and these are always the kind of stats that we are looking for. Will check on Cherel and have given Juraj a few more points especially with his STA. Kolar improved his cobble BUT he is the perfect example of a rider that is used early on where the flat stat is more important. Also because of the fact that he didn't finish either Flanders or Roubaix, may well be why I missed him when statting all these riders for cobbles backing in April.
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| Raaaandy |
Posted on 01-10-2016 09:48
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Amateur
Posts: 19
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 200.00
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Speaking of changing the favourite races for riders.. where do you do it? |
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| Anderis |
Posted on 03-10-2016 18:04
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Domestique
Posts: 471
Joined: 13-09-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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If I read the stats right, then Talansky is MASSIVELY underrated in REC (he is only 74, right?). In reality, he has better recovery than, for example Contador, as beat him on last mountain stages of both Vuelta 2016 and Tour 2013 despite being nowhere near him in the first 2 weeks. Every time Talansky manages to mount a decent GC challenge in a GT, he is so damn good in the end of 3rd week. It makes you think that he would be challenging for GT podiums if there was a 4th week. His recovery ability is one of the best in the peloton, always has been, I guess he has taken a downgrade in your DB due to the overall drop of form in the last 2 years, but it was not lack of recovery skill that caused him not to have better results. Even during his the most mediocre season ever, 2015, he was getting better and better day by day in the TdF, finishing on the verge of top10 overall despite losing over 11 (!) minutes to Froome during first mountain stage. If you want the most realistic outcome, Talansky's REC needs to be up there with the best, with the guys who are climbing much better than him and have much better AVG than him. He is far enough behind the best in MO, HI and AC so that he shouldn't do better than he does in reality even if his REC is much better than ATM. But the last Vuelta has proven that he hasn't lost what he has always had- the clear recovery edge over majority of the guys who can climb better than him at the beginning of the race.
Edited by Anderis on 03-10-2016 18:10
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 03-10-2016 19:09
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
Joined: 21-10-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Anderis wrote:
If I read the stats right, then Talansky is MASSIVELY underrated in REC (he is only 74, right?). In reality, he has better recovery than, for example Contador, as beat him on last mountain stages of both Vuelta 2016 and Tour 2013 despite being nowhere near him in the first 2 weeks. Every time Talansky manages to mount a decent GC challenge in a GT, he is so damn good in the end of 3rd week. It makes you think that he would be challenging for GT podiums if there was a 4th week. His recovery ability is one of the best in the peloton, always has been, I guess he has taken a downgrade in your DB due to the overall drop of form in the last 2 years, but it was not lack of recovery skill that caused him not to have better results. Even during his the most mediocre season ever, 2015, he was getting better and better day by day in the TdF, finishing on the verge of top10 overall despite losing over 11 (!) minutes to Froome during first mountain stage. If you want the most realistic outcome, Talansky's REC needs to be up there with the best, with the guys who are climbing much better than him and have much better AVG than him. He is far enough behind the best in MO, HI and AC so that he shouldn't do better than he does in reality even if his REC is much better than ATM. But the last Vuelta has proven that he hasn't lost what he has always had- the clear recovery edge over majority of the guys who can climb better than him at the beginning of the race. True story. It is the same with Hesjedal and Contador is MASSIVELY overrated. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 02:49
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| matt17br |
Posted on 03-10-2016 19:21
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Hesjedal used to have one of the highest RECs in game, which has changed now that he's had a quite lacklustre season.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 05-10-2016 22:02
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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@Anderis A good point about Talansky that we agree with and have increased his REC.
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| sasijaski |
Posted on 05-10-2016 22:29
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 12-08-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Do you will draw one last upgrade? when? thx |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 06-10-2016 01:07
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Well Hesjedal won't even be in the updated 2017 DB so he won't matter anyway.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Rafid |
Posted on 06-10-2016 02:30
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Amateur
Posts: 10
Joined: 30-04-2016
PCM$: 200.00
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Hesjedal 2012 Giro
Be happy
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 12-10-2016 17:09
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 12-10-2016 18:33
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Paul23 wrote:
Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please.
Coming from Tony Martin's fanboy. mmmh. |
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 12-10-2016 20:48
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please.
Coming from Tony Martin's fanboy. mmmh.
May I quote the rules?
"1. If you comment on someone's post, comment on the contents of the post, not on the person!
2. Don't make fun of suggestions of other members. Everyone can post their suggestions. It's up to our statmakers to decide what to do with them.
3. Keep your posts strictly on-topic.
"
There you go.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 12-10-2016 20:53
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Paul23 wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please.
Coming from Tony Martin's fanboy. mmmh.
May I quote the rules?
"1. If you comment on someone's post, comment on the contents of the post, not on the person!
2. Don't make fun of suggestions of other members. Everyone can post their suggestions. It's up to our statmakers to decide what to do with them.
3. Keep your posts strictly on-topic.
"
There you go.
But, isn't your post in violation of the 3rd rule? 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Thatguyeveryonehates |
Posted on 12-10-2016 20:54
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Domestique
Posts: 447
Joined: 01-05-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance |
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 12-10-2016 21:04
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Indeed. I follow him closely on facebook and I often have contact with his manager(who could've guessed), so he seems to have raised his bars a bit and moved his saddle slightly more to the front, but he switched everything back.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 13-10-2016 07:22
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
Joined: 20-06-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Nope, the shift in performance is because all of his TT rivals had another goals this year. 
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 13-10-2016 07:31
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
Joined: 21-10-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Paul23 wrote:
Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please. No? Tony can already now become number 12 to olympics games, +3 minutes after Cancellara.
He can also already become world champion if Dumoulin and Dennis peaked to olympics games and if Cancellara and Froome is not included.
Edited by Arberg27 on 13-10-2016 07:52
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 13-10-2016 07:58
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
Joined: 21-10-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Nope, the shift in performance is because all of his TT rivals had another goals this year. True |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 13-10-2016 22:18
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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There are no big changes especially in terms of decreasing TT stats due to the heat conditions at the Worlds but for sure Martin and Kiryenka have been increased, as they have saved their best TT performances for the latter part of the year.
The biggest stat increase will be for Mullen, despite not doing anything special in other TT's this year.
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 13-10-2016 22:23
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Nope, the shift in performance is because all of his TT rivals had another goals this year.
He said, that he wasn't even going full, because he heard, that the others were slower. He was "cruising" to the finish. He also said, that his position change made the most.
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