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Vuelta á Espana 2016
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 21-07-2016 13:32
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It is worth bearing in mind the nature of the parcours before firing off predictions about who is going to win left right and centre. 29km TTT is the longest in a GT since the Verona TTT in the Giro 2012 and the 39km ITT is flatter than usual and buried deep in the third week like last year. But also, the race is less mountainous than usual. There are only three mountain stages, probably one fewer than usual, and the Aubisque stage is ridiculously difficult compared to all the others, but seven other hilltop finishes, most of which are really steep (as usual).
I would pick Chaves as he is adept at handling both the Muritos and the Aubisque stage, although I'm worried his TT may let him down. Instead I'm going for Superman López. Handles the steep gradients well, as shown in Switzerland, got a good acceleration, time-trials well and will have a strong Astana team to put in a good TTT. And most importantly, he hasn't ridden a GT yet this year. A hard-ridden Tour + Olympics will take their toll on many riders, the route really doesn't suit the likes of Kruijswijk or Quintana at all, and I'm not confident about Contador although one can never rule him out (before everyone starts clamouring about 2014 this route suits him a lot less than that one did), so that leaves the two Colombians as the best picks in my humble opinion. Just think, López, Chaves and Quintana as an all-Colombian podium would be awesome 
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:12
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Stromeon wrote:
It is worth bearing in mind the nature of the parcours before firing off predictions about who is going to win left right and centre. 29km TTT is the longest in a GT since the Verona TTT in the Giro 2012 and the 39km ITT is flatter than usual and buried deep in the third week like last year. But also, the race is less mountainous than usual. There are only three mountain stages, probably one fewer than usual, and the Aubisque stage is ridiculously difficult compared to all the others, but seven other hilltop finishes, most of which are really steep (as usual).
I would pick Chaves as he is adept at handling both the Muritos and the Aubisque stage, although I'm worried his TT may let him down. Instead I'm going for Superman López. Handles the steep gradients well, as shown in Switzerland, got a good acceleration, time-trials well and will have a strong Astana team to put in a good TTT. And most importantly, he hasn't ridden a GT yet this year. A hard-ridden Tour + Olympics will take their toll on many riders, the route really doesn't suit the likes of Kruijswijk or Quintana at all, and I'm not confident about Contador although one can never rule him out (before everyone starts clamouring about 2014 this route suits him a lot less than that one did), so that leaves the two Colombians as the best picks in my humble opinion. Just think, López, Chaves and Quintana as an all-Colombian podium would be awesome
Don't forget Fatancur.
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:18
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You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:27
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Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
He has ridden Giro + Vuelta in 2014 and 2015 as well tho. He is gradually getting better and better and IS indeed one of the favourites, so obviously, people are gonna expect things. Especially after his last two showings in GTs which both were formidable. |
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Posted on 23-11-2024 16:09
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| Strydz |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:27
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Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
It's fine for him to do 2 GT's in the season but you'd hope they wouldn't put to much pressure on him for the GC, a stage win would be a good target and then see how he feels
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:29
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Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
I doubt he can be killed by words on the internet forum. 
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:30
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Strydz wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
It's fine for him to do 2 GT's in the season but you'd hope they wouldn't put to much pressure on him for the GC, a stage win would be a good target and then see how he feels
Way too unambitious. |
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| Strydz |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:31
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Riis123 wrote:
Strydz wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
It's fine for him to do 2 GT's in the season but you'd hope they wouldn't put to much pressure on him for the GC, a stage win would be a good target and then see how he feels
Way too unambitious.
Lucky I'm not a DS then 
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:32
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Anyway what a young stars Orica has!
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:33
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Strydz wrote:
Riis123 wrote:
Strydz wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
You guys expecting to much..he is young fellow. Don't kill him with high hopes. For him ..1 GT at season would be enough.
It's fine for him to do 2 GT's in the season but you'd hope they wouldn't put to much pressure on him for the GC, a stage win would be a good target and then see how he feels
Way too unambitious.
Lucky I'm not a DS then
I know its the Orica-way of doing things and they have done it with great success, but Chaves has reached that point of his career where he needs to deal with the high pressure and perform IMO |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 21-07-2016 14:57
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Very hard to tell when you don't know all teams/riders.
I don't think Contador will win, I wonder why he is even considered at Grand Tour favorite, I think his time is over.
My guess is someone else.
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| Strydz |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:04
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Tamijo wrote:
Very hard to tell when you don't know all teams/riders.
I don't think Contador will win, I wonder why he is even considered at Grand Tour favorite, I think his time is over.
My guess is someone else.
He isn't the very best anymore but he can win a Vuelta, on most occasions the winner is whoever arrives in the best shape an not fatigued from a long season
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:21
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I voted Lopez, I hope he will win, but I think the big underdog is Froome. He isn't going at 100% it seems, still, and wanted to do the triple right from the start of the season and has planned meticulously for that. In form, Froome actually is a monster of steep, hill top finishes as well, just look at Huy. |
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| Strydz |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:25
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I voted other only because I have no idea what the field will look like yet
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:33
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Riis123 wrote:
I voted Lopez, I hope he will win, but I think the big underdog is Froome. He isn't going at 100% it seems, still, and wanted to do the triple right from the start of the season and has planned meticulously for that. In form, Froome actually is a monster of steep, hill top finishes as well, just look at Huy.
It's quite a bold prediction for a 22 year old who has never ridden a GT to win his first one. He is definitely a great climber but recovery is so unpredictable with young talents like that that, so I don't think I would pick Lopez for the win. Yes he won Suisse, but those 9 stages were the longest race he's ever ridden professionally. Adding 12 more is a totally different ball game and it often takes a couple of tries to get used to. That's just my opinion. But either way he will show himself a lot for sure.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:43
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Strydz wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Very hard to tell when you don't know all teams/riders.
I don't think Contador will win, I wonder why he is even considered at Grand Tour favorite, I think his time is over.
My guess is someone else.
He isn't the very best anymore but he can win a Vuelta, on most occasions the winner is whoever arrives in the best shape an not fatigued from a long season
Can't be sure but my guess is he is both mentally and physically out of his prime
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:45
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Contador is my favorite, because those there are better than him have raced Tour or Giro + Olympics.
Edited by Arberg27 on 21-07-2016 15:51
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 15:46
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Surely Contador is the big favourite. Most rested of all GC riders plus not going to Rio either.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-07-2016 21:44
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On the Chaves talk: In his last two GTs, he's been amazing and so realistically I'd like a podium again but he could go all the way, depending on how he's been getting on in training (Olympics is only a one-day race but could be a gauge). he'll have a team built for his climbing needs here even more so than the Giro, Simon Yates seems certain whilst some of his guys who kept him in a very good position by Colombian Climber standards in the early part of the Giro would be here, though like the Giro Orica will have a stage wins option with some guys for him too. But as many say, the teams are really uncertain so after some prep races and when even provisional start lists are announced it should be easier to make predictions.
Also, with Yates and Chaves really kicking on in GTs this season Orica have to get some more climbers in (though Power and Haig look promising - though of course Power still has that bone marrow disease).
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| Kalach |
Posted on 21-07-2016 22:26
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Cant believe so many people think Contador can win the race even when we dont know if he will be 100% okay for the race and without a preparation. Well, he has many fans. 
I fancy another Chaves vs. Kruijswijk battle, with Quintana, Froome, Contador and Lopez right behindf, together with some surprise names.
This time he does not have a broken tibia... Look what happened in 2014 and he won it. |
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