TR's All Thumbs CT Preview
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:29
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Grand Tour Specialist
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How does The Rider rate this year's CT batch? Let's find out!
Spoiler
In the order we predict them to finish, from 24th - 1st we have a simple review of the bad/good points of each team, with an overview of the 2016 squad and a look of the squads which finished in the same position last season: for a rough comparison.
If you find any screens of teams in the wrong order, blame the 23rd hour disband of a team which shall not be mentioned!
The whole point of this is to generate a healthy discussion on who thinks who will finish where and why, there are no right or wrong answers, of course!
Edited by The Rider on 06-07-2016 17:32
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:29
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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24. Eddie Stobart
After relegation from the PCT, we just can not see sutty's striders bouncing straight back. Cimolai and Martinez are the top riders here, however, with the number of faster pure-sprinters and influx of hilly-sprinters in the division they might struggle to infiltrate the top 6 in the flat stages. We can expect little in the hills here and less in the mountains.
There are certainly worse teams for breakaway in the division. Successful late attacks from Montaguti or Wurf could see Stobart avoiding the bottom spot.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
23. TVM - Beslist.nl
A team focused for the flat and cobbles: we doubt any team will score less points in the hills/mountains and tt's this season. Hard to see many points coming form breakaways. One of the very best sprint trains, however, this low ranking comes from the fact that Kip, who we don't rate, is here. If Vingerling was certain to lead in the sprints, then TVM might expect to miss out on relegation [to the nether leagues!], however, we see TVM setting up a dominant sprint train then Kip faltering in the last meters - time and again.
Very good on the flat, one of the best in the division, with former Tour du Faso winner Lindeman: they can expect some good times on the cobbles.
This season:
Last season:
22. Vivacom - DataMap
In a division where having a decent sprinter is a must-have, Thire doesn't cut the mustard at all. Zeits was a big gamble, which we can't see coming off with some of the puncheurs who are new to the division.
Nieve! The only rider we can see cracking the top 10 on a regular basis. With some luck he could even challenge for mountainous wins. Georgiev and Berdos, capable riders, will need some good mid-stage attacks to see Vivacom make enough points to avoid the bottom 5.
This season:
Last season:
21. Schuh powered by Wiggle
With the competition in the division we don't think the big signing of Selig will come off: more often than not he might not even sprint. The lack of a solid climber/puncheur will be felt.
Some quality good depth with regards to roleurs/puncheurs. Delage, Handley and Dowling are all aggressive riders who can put in those strong breakaway showings and finish it off for a win: do that on a few occasions and they could avoid the bottom 5. Christian - one of the best against the clock in CT.
This season:
Last season:
20. Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
We feel this new German team are just missing that one big name which would vault them up the table a good 10 places. Two seasons ago Geschke was invaluable: now, however, with a different calendar and the likes of Favilli and Navardauskus in the division we think it difficult for him to make the top 25 in the rankings.
Geschke will still be a solid points scorer. De Clercq, if he attacks at the right time, could figure well in the mountains and Vanderaerden will mix it up in the sprints which might see the odd victory come this team's way. Some good showings on the cobbles could see the team avoid the bottom 5.
This season:
Last season:
Edited by The Rider on 06-07-2016 17:34
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Aside from the cobbles there are no stand out riders who will challenge for victories/placings consistently in their respective terrains. Missing one or two rouelurs who can make a difference in early breakaways. Underperforming form their leaders might see the team slip into the bottom five.
Despite joining late in the transfer period, Scorchio has assembled a good cluster of riders who will score points more often than not. Bush is one of the very best cobblers in the division, we reckon a solid stream of points will come forth from him. Moreno and Cano will figure in some mountain stages. But look out for Rodriguez Galindo, one of the best climbing puncheurs in the division: expect a stage win from him sometime: a good consistent showing from him throughout the season could see WCC rise into the top 15.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
18. The Spark Project p/b Bollé
One word comes to mind: gamble! A team very hard to place due to the inconsistent erratic nature of their leaders. Yatsevich, is the division's best against the clock, however, time trials will depend heavily on form on the day. We can't see breakaway riders contributing many points to the team's tally.
Yatsevich is the team's best hope. Winning TTs and consquently stage races are key for this team finishing in the top 20. Krasnoperov and Thorsen, in a way, might be considered the best climber and sprinter in the division and at least some cameos/stage wins are expected from them. The Belarusbank of 2016!
Team:
This season:
Last season :
17. Hankook - Ping An Bank
The best bet for points Colbrelli, may lose out due to tight competition between the best sprinters. Another team who won't score many points from breakaways due to lack of depth. The team's hills/mountain leaders are temperamental: if they suffer due to bad stamina etc regularly this team could end up in the bottom three.
With Colbrelli we are looking at one of the top half-a-dozen sprinters in the division. Three solid climbers who might bring a steady trickle of top10 points in from every race they enter.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
16. KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
Several teams predicted to finish lower all have a leader of more quality. Going for points from breakaways and second-tier riders is always riskier than having a good consistent leader. Giaux, is a rounded sprinter, but is he good enough to contest with the best?
Certainly the team with the best depth we have seen so far. A team built for successful breakaways. Renäng and Gaimon have shown from the last seasons that they are quality CT riders.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
We are now into the teams who have at least 2 riders who should really bring in a good tally of points.
15. Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
Bakari. Really missing that top climber/ puncheur which would have made this squad top 10 material.
Von Hoff, with his all round skills, will be one to watch in the sprints. De Vocht is one to watch in all cobble races, Flens is there for the tt's. Expect some great, but sporadic, showings from Chaoufi. One of the best TTT squads in the division.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
14. Elta - Hellenic Post
Apart from the three clear leaders it has hard to say where other points are coming from. Another team where the depth is lacking.
He may be controversial but Sella is one top CT climber, winning c1 races last season surely he is good enough to win c2 races here! Fonseca, in the sprints, and Ma, in the tt's, should bring in a solid total of points to compliment Sella. If these three each have a good season, mid-table should easily be in reach here.
Team:
This season:
Last season :
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
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13. Sauber Petronas Racing
Harsh to say, but a squad which probably looks better on paper than it actually is. Salleh is fast, but he has rarely proved it, Kung can ride with the CT best in the mountains and hills - but will he and how often?
Where there are some question marks in the squad, there is one exclamation point and that is Zoidl. Already a CT stage race winner, with his training, he is to be a rider to be feared and should be there or thereabouts in the CT ind. rankings top 10. If the streaky riders perform a team top 10 could be well on the cards for this established MG dynasty!
This season:
Last season :
12. Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
A huge tally of points expected from De la Cruz, but who else will score good points? We can't see Guillén matching his, unbelievable, season of two seasons ago.
De la Cruz! The Spaniard may have cost a lot, but we think he is worth it. The best stage racer in the division: expect a mammoth total of points from him. Gonzalez Cortes will take points here and there and looks to be the next biggest points scorer.
Siam Cement, in 2014, showed having one dominating points scorer can secure a top 10 finish maybe the same will be the case here?
This season:
Last season :
11. cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
Aside from the leaders there isn't too much depth to fall back on. Some of the leaders, ie Stannard, are very one-dimensional and will require a course which suits them perfectly to do well.
The wisest training, granted there wasn't much of it, in CT has to go to Tvetcov: the star of cycleYorkshire. After a solid ToA last season the Romanian has improved and is now poised to finish in the top 10 and to make his name as one of the very best stage racers in the division. Stannard will mop up plenty of points in the tt's and Rowe might be good for a victory here and there: if the last two seasons are anything to go by.
This season:
Last season :
10. New Balance
One of the best sprinters/sprint trains in the division, yet New Balance miss out on band 3: which includes Langkawi & Amissa Bongo(the most propitious race for CT sprinters). That could cost them given how important sprints will, again, be this season.
Nizzolo will score well in the sprints. De Marchi, Løvik, Iturria and Khripta make a very strong mountain team. Taborre will be a podium candidate for most hilly stages. If we underestimated any team here it is probably MARSU's Marauders!
This season:
Last season :
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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9. MOL - OMV Petrom
Napolitano could disappoint totally, despite a great lead-out, with the competition and his 'decreasing powers'. Favilli wasn't great for Strava last season, another one better on paper?
When jaxika said he was creating a Hungarian dev team, he fooled us! This team could make the top 10 comfortably! Pomoshnikov, definitely a top 5 climber in the division, Hategeka one of the best puncheurs in the division and Napolitano is still good enough to win the flat-sprints on his day. Some good breakaway depth in Popkov and Palyi.
This season:
Last season :
8. Xero Racing p/b Octagon
While there are half a dozen quality riders in multiple terrains, Xero Racing doesn't have the outright favourite in any field. So those 1st and 2nd places will be hard to come by.
At least two realistic outside stage-winning options in mountains, hills and sprints. Expect sprinters to have another big season at the CT level: expect plenty from Scully. Salinas should be challenging for stage race podiums and points should come in steadily from the two puncheurs. Over-perform, on the whole, and this team could finish well into the top 5.
This season:
Last season :
7. Chiquita - Universal
Again, missing band 3 with two quality sprinters (Manarelli/Drapac). A tendency to go to the ToA which may not be a good decision this time around. Secondary leaders (Lejman, Sarmiento) too one dimensional: we feel riders like that will suffer this season.
Good points to come from the sprints and Martinez, though the Cuban will need to ride out of his skin for this team to consider auto-promotion. Marcos and Weiss are capable of putting in solid late attacks.
This season:
Last season :
6. Isostar - Adriatic
Lack of support for the mountains and cobbles. Sure Anton and Drucker are amongst the best in the division, but will the team be up to support them?
A solid team. Drucker for the cobbles. Mezgec will be a real contender for all the sprint finishes he enters, Anton is one of the top several stage racers in the division and Bole could be a real factor in hillyish races. Kasa is not too be underestimated. We saw how effective Tennant was last season at CT level. Surely just a few strong domestiques away from being auto-promotion contenders.
This season:
Last season :
Edited by The Rider on 06-07-2016 21:41
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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5. La Poste - Mavic
Lacking a solid rider for the mountains. Despite his Tour of Scotland win, surely lightning won strike twice with Baz?! Question marks over Dowsett, he is no Roy, but he didn't do too much last season albeit at a higher level.
One exceptional puncheur, for the CT, one of the best sprinters in the division supported by strong domestiques who can take on the hills and sprint decently: yes, a team which could be figuring in the automatic promotion discussion.
This season:
Last season :
4. Podium Ambition
If the cobbles don't go to plan, they aren't in too much abundance, auto-promotion could be a challenge. Heavily relying on just two riders for points in the mountains/hills. Nelson will miss out on the sprint fest in Gabon.
No doubt, the best team for the cobbles in the decision. Capable of challenging PCT teams on the cobbles we could see this team score heavily in any c1 cobble races they enter as Lierse and Strava did last season. One of the very best sprint trains, Nelson will be after hat-fulls of wins and points.
This season:
Last season :
3. Ferrero - Samruk
They will struggle to score points on the 'pure' stages: ie they will struggle to score points on pan-flat stages or a race with nothing but mountains.
Comfortably the team with the best depth in the division. Comfortably! The tactic here is, if they can't win with a big favourite which they don't have, then they will aim to fill the rest of the top 10! A team full of puncheurs a PT level team would be happy with. With hard stages, with echelons, you have to feel this team has the best shot of any to get those fabled 1-2's or 1-2-3's at the finish. If other team's leaders don't deliver this is a team which could really steam-roll away with the title.
This season:
Last season :
2. Carlsberg - Danske bank
De Maar might struggle in the pure hilly stages. We don't think Garby is all he is cracked up to be.
Ah! What a squad! After two seasons in the lower-middle tiers of the CT division, it is time for bblover to contemplate a title challenge. In Docker they have, for us, the sprinter who will score the second most points in the division and the team's best bet for points. They have someone capable of winning tt's, a top ct level climber, the irrepressible De Maar: not to forget Boonen and a host of solid domestiques for early breaks. Title contenders for sure!
This season:
Last season :
1. Kraftwerk Man Machine
Kraftwerk Man Machine - that names does remind us of despotic, yet iconic scenes, in Metropolis. The depth is great for the CT level, but slightly lacking compared to other title contenders. Better sprint-trains are out there.
Straight into the MG and installed straight as favourites for the CT title. Stauff, our favourite for the individual crown, is, for us, the best sprinter in the division: crucially he will be there in those band 3 races! Klemme, our favourite for second place in the individual rankings, will be a real force to be reckoned with: with him expect a dominating performance as we saw two seasons again with Rodriguez/Siam. Not forgetting Hacecký for a solid tally of mountain points, a rider for the cobbles and super domestiques: Gerdemann; Tartarinov and Ikibe who will bring in a steady stream of points and perhaps team classifications. Yes, siree ....
This season:
Last season :
.... Who can stop the Kraftwerk Man Machine?!
Edited by The Rider on 06-07-2016 21:45
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:31
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Edited by The Rider on 06-07-2016 21:46
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Ollfardh |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:34
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Nice to see those have started! The names start to sound familiar by now
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:34
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Team Leader
Posts: 5597
Joined: 10-08-2013
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I am in Top 13, I feel good
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matt17br |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:53
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
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Nice to see the previews started! Can't wait for all PCT teams to quit slacking so the PCT speculation can start as well
Great write ups looking forward to see who the promotion candidates will be.
EDIT: You may want to take a look at the newcomer teams last season pics in the spoilers!
Edited by matt17br on 06-07-2016 21:15
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roro_352 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 17:57
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Domestique
Posts: 423
Joined: 27-01-2013
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I would have seen my team a bit higher ^^ I'll prove you wrong
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 18:04
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Looking forward to where you see my team!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 18:35
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1387
Joined: 15-03-2014
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I'm impressed, thankful and somewhat put to shame.
Slightly above 16th here we come!
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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jandal7 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:11
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Top 13 yay! Lovely lovely preview TR, really cool insight and very good-looking!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2
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The Rider |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:14
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
Joined: 29-02-2012
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^ Top 9 now apparently!
Just 9 teams to go now, will post the rest in about 30 mins! roro & MARSU - by all means prove me wrong! |
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Paul23 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:29
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
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Very nice preview. I think you're right about my team, but I still hope on some breakaways to get a bit better result.
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Croatia14 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:31
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Directeur Sportif
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still not mentioned
hmmm the "last season" of Sauber-Petronas looks wrong - it looks like you put in the squad of Sevestal instead
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sammyt93 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:34
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
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To be fair to Salleh he is newly maxed this season so that might be why he's not yet proved he's fast.
So far every preview has had us 10th - 15th which is where I expect to finish and I think it isn't too bad considering we missed all the guys we wanted to bring in as a leader.
At least next year a few more guys will be training eligible and we'll get stronger depth from the guys we loaned out coming back.
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sammyt93 |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:36
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
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Croatia14 wrote:
still not mentioned
hmmm the "last season" of Sauber-Petronas looks wrong - it looks like you put in the squad of Sevestal instead
As far as I understand it, it's the squad that finished in that position last season, not my squad last season that's meant to be in the spoiler.
and Cycle Yorkshire's squad seems to be New Balance's in the spoiler, unless you fixed it whilst I was typing this.
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trekbmc |
Posted on 06-07-2016 21:39
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Team Leader
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Really love this preview The a Rider! Some really great insights into the division.
Especially nice to see the last season squads - amazing how similar New Balance looks to last season's Sancor.
Croatia14 wrote:
hmmm the "last season" of Sauber-Petronas looks wrong - it looks like you put in the squad of Sevestal instead
The last season is the team that finished in that position last season.
Although, for my own nitpick, the CycleYorskhire squad shows the New Balance squad.
EDIT: Zabel'd on two points.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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