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Tour de France Discussion
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 08-09-2015 01:17
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Team Manager
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The biggest race of the season has arrived!
2 ITT (40km in total)
9 flat
4 hill (1 uphill finish)
6 mountain (4 MTF)
Full preview from roturn: https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....d_id=38690
| Year | 1. | 2. | 3. | | 2014 |  A.Schleck |  Pluchkin |  Spilak | | 2013 |  Madrazo |  Cunego | A.Schleck | | 2012 | Cunego | Madrazo | Pluchkin | | 2011 | Spilak |  Dekker |  Popovych | | 2010 |  Fothen |  Devolder | Spilak | | 2009 | Devolder | F.Schleck |  Gadret | | 2008 | F.Schleck | Di Luca | Valverde | | 2007 | Moreau |  Vinokourov |  Leipheimer |
8 Tours, 8 winners: now for a 9th? Frank Schleck and Markus Fothen are here, but aren't going to threaten for the title. Pluchkin as the only other former podium finisher here.
| Mo | Hl | TT | | | Mo | Hl | TT |  Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 79 | |  Cattaneo | 80 | 69 | 77 |  Taaramäe | 83 | 78 | 80 | |  Duarte | 80 | 68 | 75 |  Amador | 84 | 75 | 78 | |  Lecuisinier | 79 | 73 | 75 |  Alarcon | 84 | 73 | 66 | |  Morton | 80 | 74 | 71 |  Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 | |  Ji | 80 | 75 | 69 |  Velits | 83 | 76 | 75 | |  Valls | 79 | 75 | 72 |  Úran | 82 | 74 | 78 | |  Talansky | 79 | 75 | 72 |  Martin | 82 | 77 | 73 | |  Faiers | 78 | 71 | 75 |  Henao Montoya | 82 | 71 | 71 | |  Brenes | 79 | 73 | 69 |  Dombrowski | 82 | 73 | 69 | |  Kirsch | 78 | 74 | 71 |  Monsalve | 81 | 76 | 72 | |  Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 63 |  Fothen | 80 | 73 | 76 | |  Kolesnikov | 77 | 72 | 72 |
Pluchkin's TdF progression from 2009 is as follows: 12th, 7th, 4th, 3rd, 9th, 2nd - with that 9th place ending the constant progression but a year where, without bad luck he might have won it. Team B&O fell short in their long term goal to make Pluchkin a TdF winner but Metinvest take over and he is now a GT winner thanks to the Vuelta, and the favourite here to become the MG's first rider to win 2 GTs in a year.
Aside from Uran's 5th in 2011, none of his main rivals have even troubled the Top 5 here. Rein Taaramae is the Dauphine King but has yet to prove himself on a GT stage, finishing 6th here last year - a position that Andrey Amador filled the two previous years. Taaramae's former CT teammate is Jose Alarcon, who is the other GT winner on the startlist.
Romain Sicard flys the flag for France, Peter Velits is another top climber yet to really shine in a GT, while Dan Martin will hope to convert his one week successes for the first time too. Joseph Dombrowski is favourite for the U25 competition.
| Mo | Hl | Ac | | | Mo | Hl | Ac | | Wellens | 79 | 73 | 67 | | Schleck | 77 | 80 | 73 | | Costagli | 79 | 71 | 59 | | Klemme | 74 | 80 | 66 | | Preidler | 78 | 77 | 69 | | Lutsenko | 72 | 78 | 79 | | Solis | 79 | 60 | 67 | | Kinoshita | 71 | 78 | 75 | | Kunshin | 77 | 73 | 71 | | De Bie | 70 | 78 | 73 | | Kennaugh | 77 | 70 | 63 | | Anuar Aziz | 67 | 79 | 70 | | Scarponi | 77 | 75 | 70 | | Vanendert | 72 | 78 | 72 | | Vysna | 77 | 76 | 71 | | Zakarin | 73 | 77 | 73 | | Kratochvila | 76 | 77 | 64 | | Roux | 65 | 78 | 75 | | López Garcia | 77 | 74 | 62 | | Chaves | 74 | 77 | 70 |
Former winner Frank Schleck is here alongside wildcard rider Domenik Klemme as the top puncheur in the race, and there are hill stages for them - and others - to target. With Wellens and Solis, Taaramae has some strong support! Scarponi is the best descender in the field.
| Hl | Sp | Ac | | | Hl | Sp | Ac | | Swift | 68 | 84 | 82 | | Bennati | 66 | 81 | 73 | | Lo Cicero | 64 | 84 | 78 | | Stauff | 65 | 80 | 81 | | Bewley | 71 | 83 | 83 | | Van Avermaet | 66 | 80 | 71 | | Van Stayen | 76 | 83 | 77 | | Bouhanni | 63 | 80 | 77 | | Degenkolb | 69 | 83 | 81 | | Rowe | 65 | 79 | 80 | | Guerao | 64 | 83 | 76 | | Coquard | 64 | 79 | 81 | | Guarnieri | 66 | 82 | 81 | | Vesely | 68 | 79 | 80 | | Vanderbiest | 64 | 82 | 77 | | Grosu | 72 | 79 | 78 | | Kristoff | 68 | 81 | 79 | | Aberasturi | 64 | 79 | 78 | | Zabel | 69 | 81 | 79 | | Santos | 64 | 79 | 75 | | Maksimov | 55 | 81 | 84 | | Van der Lijke | 75 | 78 | 79 | | Napolitano | 65 | 81 | 80 | | Merino Criado | 69 | 78 | 80 |
A heavyweight sprinters battle as the divisions top 2 sprinters come head to head here. Sam Bewley can't stop winning this year but remarkably, this is his Grand Tour debut. Ben Swift is more used to GT sprinting with 4 Giro wins and 3 Vuelta - 2 this season - but failed to win a stage in his one TdF appearance so far, which included a defeat by Romain Vanderbiest.
Jacopo Guarnieri has won here, as has Daniele Bennati many times - although this seems to be one year too far. Óscar Guerao will have fond memories of his fantastic 2013 race - but onto the 3rd leg of his GT marathon this season, those days seem long gone.
The obligatory Pokerstars sprinter this race is Degenkolb, while a trained up Van Stayen could be a real threat on some of those tougher flat days. The wildcard in the mix is Lo Cicero, one of the lazier sprinters so far this season, but fast when he goes for it.
| Hl | TT | Pl | | | Hl | TT | Pl | | Kittel | 64 | 81 | 81 | | Taaramäe | 78 | 80 | 79 | | Sergent | 69 | 80 | 80 | | Pluchkin | 75 | 79 | 79 | | Malori | 68 | 79 | 79 | | Úran | 74 | 78 | 78 | | Martin | 72 | 79 | 78 | | Amador | 75 | 78 | 77 | | Paillot | 70 | 78 | 78 | | Cattaneo | 69 | 77 | 77 | | Bonnet | 64 | 77 | 77 | | Sicard | 78 | 76 | 76 | | Navardauskas | 74 | 76 | 77 | | Fothen | 73 | 76 | 76 | | Aregger | 71 | 68 | 78 | | Velits | 76 | 75 | 75 |
The first maillot jaune will be decided over a bumpy 7.2km in Bern. TT stat or Prologue or Hill, or a combination thereof? The Vuelta's individual offerings, and the Giro's team test have tempted many specialists away - so it is a fantastic opportunity for Marcel Kittel or Jesse Sergent. Taaramae and Pluchkin may start their GC battle from the get go though, and if not on Stage 1, will be the lead stage contenders for the longer ITT towards the end of the race.
Stats graphic from Oleg:
| 1 | 2 | | Vesuvio - Accumalux | 5324 | | 2 | 3 | | Festina-Canal+ | 5315 | | 3 | 1 | | Becherovka - Petrof | 4781 | | 4 | 4 | | Tinkoff Bank - Tinkoff Insurance | 4556 | | 5 | 5 | | Aker - MOT | 4524 | | 6 | 6 | | Good Energy | 4048 | | 7 | 7 |  | Pokerstars.com | 3979 | | 8 | 8 | | Project 1t4i | 3907 | | 9 | 9 | | Oz Cycling Project | 3772 | | 10 | 11 | | Venchi | 3747 | | 11 | 10 | | Metinvest-Dacia | 3545 | | 12 | 12 | | Quickstep | 3386 | | 13 | 14 | | Red Bull - Huawei | 3277 | | 14 | 19 | | Orange - KLM | 3266 | | 15 | 20 | | Bouygues Telecom | 3261 | | 16 | 13 | | VolksWagen - Andritz | 3163 | | 17 | 15 | | Bacardi Limited | 3144 | | 18 | 16 | | Pendleton's | 3132 | | 19 | 18 | | Movistar - US Postal | 2869 | | 20 | 17 | | Meiji - JR East | 2845 | | 21 | 21 | | Ayubowan! | 2736 | | 22 | 22 | | Swisscom - UBS | 2350 |
Festina went big in Suisse, Vesuvio went big in Dauphine. Just 9 points separates them as the division remains tight, but they've pulled out a handy gap on Becherovka, who may be favourite to score the most of the trio here.
Strength in both races lifts Orange out of the relegation spots, while Taaramae was the catalyst for Bouygues. Both will hope to build on that here. Despite a good Switzerland, Pendleton's drop to the bottom 5, as do Meiji. It's do or die for Amador and Swisscom in this race.
Edited by SportingNonsense on 08-09-2015 13:00
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 08-09-2015 02:27
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Tour de France Champion
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I hope that Garby can help Movistar well!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 08-09-2015 03:56
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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Well I think we are going down anyway, and this is our weakest GT squad. Going to have to hope for some miracles.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 08-09-2015 04:27
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8057
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 650.00
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The big one.  Team goal: Make our presence known.
Individual goals -
Fothen: Top 15
Maksimov: Stage Top 10
Garby: One mention... Show your face young lad!
De la Cruz, Newton, Simon and Altur: Breakaways
Young: Bottle carrier and maybe help Maksimov if he deserves it
I think that's rather realistic to ask for.
As for the winner... Has to be Pluchkin to make it 9 different winners.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 08-09-2015 06:13
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
Joined: 19-07-2010
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Ridicolous weak lineup from Oz, so I want to see them trying to join breaks! Even Morton should do so: I would rather see him around 20/25 than 15 first. And then pull a "breakaway wins by 10 minutes, Morton moves up to 10th"
Cool preview. This Top-10 for Oz should finally be gone soon..
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| Smowz |
Posted on 08-09-2015 06:18
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Team Leader
Posts: 6479
Joined: 09-04-2009
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Well I feel once again as if I have picked the spawniest stage racing field for Jose to compete in with Schleck, Madrazo and Spilak all missing the eyes are very much on Pluichkin.
Taaramae has proved in slaying Spilak and Schleck at his race the Dauphine that he is a big threat - good on hills/chrono and gutsy on the mountains. Then you have Amador, Sicard and Velits of course along with Jose. Jose has to do the Suisse type ride and hang on in there in the hills and I hope he can do this with the slim starter list.
Swift vs Bewley will be fascinating on the flat ones. Van Stayen is also of course a beast - it worries me that one of the secondary sprinters will not sprint again - just praying Guerao is not that man. The team standings indicate that we really need a decent tour to move clear of that relegation scrum.
It is a big chance for several teams to move forward here and as SN says for Bewley/Velits led Becherovka to ease closer to Festina (who have a shyte team here) and Swift based Vesuvio.
Looking forward to this good luck all.
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| SotD |
Posted on 08-09-2015 06:20
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
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Surprise me, my young frenchies!
In terms of points I expect nothing. My best riders in all terrains are somewhere in the region of 15-20. I hope for some very aggressive riding, but havent had any all season long.
For the overall ranking agter this race I expect Vesuvio to lead by ~200 points to Becherovka and ~700 points to us. Aker will be close in 4th while Tinkoff may drop a spot or two.
My favorite here is Alarcon or Taaramae, but Pluchkin should take it.
Also I hope my mate Roman gets a bunch of points, so he can win the ranking when I cant :-) So rooting for Bewley and Velits here also!
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| ember |
Posted on 08-09-2015 06:26
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
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PCM$: 700.00
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Very nice preview!
Truly excited for this one, as it's the first season where we actually target the Tour with a proper leader, and why not send both Martin and Kristoff then? Seeing the startlist, a top 10 should be realistic, and it's also our sponsor goal, which we really need to complete after a disappointing Ardennes week.
Hopefully Kristoff will attend all sprints on the flat stages. One or two top 6 from him would be very good seeing the sprinters here. Doubt he'll get any help though, thus I hope our 76 climbers are allowed to try a breakaway or two in the mountains, as it's probably our best chance at a stage win.
Difficult to see past Pluchkin for this one, he has got to be the favourite. Curious about Alarcon's performance, he showed the previous month that he's capable of gapping anyone in the mountains, but he has got to be consistent.
But whoever wins and fails, this should be a great race to follow! |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 08-09-2015 06:46
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World Champion
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Ahh, was waiting for this one, cool preview SN! 
Pluchkin is here to make the history with a GT double. If he has same legs like he had in Vuelta, he should be clear favourite, but likes of Taaramäe, Amador and Alarcon will be tough competitors and cant be underestimated. In the end we have a top3 goal here, but this can be the best shot ever to win the TdF with other 85 climbers missing.
Salinas and Karnulin both did great job for Aleksandr in Spain, so i hope they can again be the key part in bringing the main guy to the striking position. Grosu is the wildcard, but the sprinters field is so tough, that even late top 10 in a stage would be great for him.
Good luck to all, this should be fun!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 08:17
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| Heine |
Posted on 08-09-2015 07:12
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Joined: 08-04-2007
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TDF
Monsalve hoping for a top 10, that would be great. Will have to fight for it but he got a shot.
Preidler will hopefully join some breaks. Would be great if he could go for the KoM, but I wont count on it
Zabel, hoping for some top 5/3. If he could amke that it's enough for me.
Pluschkin should be the clear favorite here. To be honest one of the weaker GC-fields for TDF in quite some time. If I had known I would've sent Denifl here to dissapoint me...
Looking forward to this, been many days at work now without any PT-races
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 08-09-2015 08:28
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Grand Tour Champion
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Looks like I need to do well here so I want Dombrowski in white and hopefully in the top 10. Fingers crossed and maybe a breakaway win too or some time in the mountains jersey, got a fair few good secondary climbers.
Pluchkin seems the big favourite but as we've seen, anything can happen this year. All we know is somebody's gonna be happy and somebody's gonna be upset (Sotd?  ) at the end of it.
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| roturn |
Posted on 08-09-2015 08:41
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Well at least the sprinter field is first class. 
Very weak GC lineup as most went to the Vuelta I think. Can`t see any reason for Pluchkin to lose this. Taaramae and Sicard have done well recently. Also Martin and Alarcon had good moments this season. Wouldn`t be surprised if those 5 are in the top spots. Behind them the disappointing Amador, Velits, Uran etc.
That said, normally Amador should fight for the podium and I really hope he does as UBS needs it the most I feel.
Of those 2nd tier riders like Lecuisinier, Kirsch, Morton, Elissonde, Kolesnikov or the crazy Faiers, I think 1-2 have good chances for top10 even depending on who joins the best 2nd half breakaways.
Great preview SN and looking very much forward to this race. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 08-09-2015 09:04
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World Champion
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wackojackohighcliffe wrote:
Looks like I need to do well here so I want Dombrowski in white and hopefully in the top 10. Fingers crossed and maybe a breakaway win too or some time in the mountains jersey, got a fair few good secondary climbers.
Pluchkin seems the big favourite but as we've seen, anything can happen this year. All we know is somebody's gonna be happy and somebody's gonna be upset (Sotd? ) at the end of it.
Yeah. I tend to get pissed even when I have no pre-race expectations - So this race is probably no different
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| jph27 |
Posted on 08-09-2015 10:56
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Well, this is the race I've been dreading - from here on in we could potentially top 10/15 every race until the end of the season. Hopefully Elissonde does something useful, and Vanderbiest sprints like he did in Qatar which would make him a podium contender on all the flat stages and with his recovery plus relatively high mountain stat, I feel good about the final stage. Apart from that we need the obligatory breakaway + KoM points, with Roux and Vuillermoz both here for their third GTs having previous on that front.
On the subject of the ranking update, it does look pretty grim for us now. Relegation is not assured by any means, but we really need to at least match the teams around us here or we'll be in real trouble. Then it's all in on the Gautier/Pinot/Vanderbiest trio until the season end. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 08-09-2015 11:14
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Team Leader
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Our only Pro Tour Race of the season is about to begin!
And I am optimistic about what we can do here.
Valls is certainly a contender for the Top 15 and may even manage to squeeze into the Top 10 with a little luck. The attacking support of Lopez, Herrada, Izagirre and Jeannesson should also be present in the breakaways and will hopefully guide Valls in his first GT as leader for a long while.
Also hoping to see the young Frenchman Nacer Bouhanni do well in the sprinters here with support from the French duo of Reza and Bonnet who himself should go for a decent stage result in the TT.
Will certainly be following this one with great eagerness and anticipation!
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 08-09-2015 11:34
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Small Tour Specialist
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Another GT for Tom Jelte This time without any great GC-contender to support, which hopefully will mean more break-away action!
Slightly dissapointed by the lack of the best GC-riders here. Hopefully the racing will make up for it Pliuchkin as the obvious favourite again, but I have the feeling Taaräme will trouble him!
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 08-09-2015 11:46
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World Champion
Posts: 14236
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Pluichkin
Pluchkin
Pluschkin
Pliuchkin
Guess the right one!
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 08-09-2015 11:52
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
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Tinkoff = here 4 Breakaways, Stage Wins, KoM and maybe Team Ranking (but that will be hard without a real leader). Good luck to all managers involved!
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| Heine |
Posted on 08-09-2015 11:59
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4116
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I would accept any of them ;-)
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 08-09-2015 13:16
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
Joined: 31-12-2007
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Awesome Stats graphic
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