Welcome to Spain and welcome to the second GT of the year! The organizers have once again done a marvellous job creating a very interesting route in Spain, which includes six flat stages, seven hilly stages, seven mountain stages and two individual time trials combining a total of 66 km. Although the route (explained more in detail in this thread: https://pcmdaily....t_1365370) should be good for defending champion Taaramäe, he won’t be back. There are only two former winners present, both of them being here with a wildcard: Tenorio and Gesink. The line-up is not the strongest a GT has seen, which will give the opportunity to some lower rated climbers to score massive points for their teams. Let’s have a look at the climbers and GC riders who have made the trip to southern Spain, where La Vuelta will start tomorrow.

	MTN	HIL	TT	STA	RES	REC
Lecuisinier	85	75	77	78	80	79
Tenorio	84	76	80	78	76	79
Kritskiy	83	74	79	77	75	76
Galta	81	73	73	78	79	77
Haig	81	74	77	76	75	78
Gesink	81	79	78	75	77	77
Reis	81	73	76	78	76	78
Hirt	81	74	73	77	79	79
Shikai	81	71	76	74	76	78
Schelling	80	75	72	75	76	73
Velits	79	72	71	69	68	67
Godoy	79	76	67	75	76	77
Kirsch	79	74	71	75	73	75
Bongiorno	79	75	68	77	77	77
Formolo	79	79	69	76	76	74
Anacona	79	74	66	75	72	74
Arndt	79	76	56	77	76	72
Faglum Karlsson	79	73	73	78	75	76
Valls	78	74	71	77	76	76
Brambilla	78	75	69	74	72	74
Vosekalns	78	75	62	69	73	72
Sosnitskiy	78	72	64	73	77	68
Nesset	78	73	69	77	76	74
Elissonde	78	73	63	76	77	79
Warchol	78	74	67	76	77	73
Campero	78	70	69	75	70	72
Smith	78	75	68	72	74	75

Lecuisinier is on a mission to win his first GT and he has a very decent shot at doing so. He is the best climber of the pack and can handle the other favourites in the hills as well. He is also a good time trialist, so there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be able to complete his mission and be the one finishing in red in Madrid three weeks from now.


There are two riders that can also be classified as top favourites and will do everything they can to keep the Frenchman from winning his first GT though. Tenorio is here on a wildcard, as mentioned above, and has the experience of winning this race, which he did in 2013. He is not only the best time trialist among the favourites, he is also the best time trialist coming to Spain. 66 time trial kilometres are not nothing, and could prove to be the deciding factor for the chances of the Spanish champion. Kritskiy is defending the colours of Team Tinkoff, and although he might be slightly worse in the mountains than the other top favourites, he will also be able to gain some time on Lecuisinier when on the time-trial bike.


Gesink, Haig, Reis and Shikai are the next riders on the list. They are all competent GC riders with a good time trial in their legs, but the Dutchman, who won the Vuelta in 2016 as part of eBuddy, clearly has an advantage over the others with his skillset in the hills. A top-3 will not be easy for him, but if he’s feeling good he could very well be the biggest threat to the three big favourites for a podium place.


Hirt, Galta and Schelling are the other top-10 contenders, but when they have a look at the startlist their managers will be dreaming of even a top-5. They’re not exceptionally strong in the hills or on a time-trial bike, but are still some very solid riders.


Looking at the other names on the list, there are not a lot of names who should be a real threat for the top-10 places, except for one rider maybe. Longer mountains at a solid pace or shorter hills going quickly are both not a problem for Formolo, while the latter might be difficult for some names above him. One problem for the Italian though, just as most of the other names below him he will be losing time during the two time trials.


The hills play an important part in the Vuelta as well, and although several stages will go to the breakaway, the puncheurs will also have their shot at stage glory. Let’s have a look at the puncheurs who will be participating.

	MTN	HIL	SPR	ACC	STA	RES	REC
Skujins	70	83	68	76	80	77	73
Jensen	70	80	66	76	77	73	71
Gesink	81	79	59	65	75	77	77
Formolo	79	79	69	71	76	76	74
Reichenbach	73	79	63	69	76	69	73
Yates	70	79	77	80	77	70	73
Teuns	75	78	66	72	73	73	76
Bellis	68	78	74	75	80	71	69
Müller	64	78	65	70	74	70	69
Sepulveda	75	77	70	73	74	73	71
Mager	74	77	60	71	68	70	71
Budyak	73	77	57	67	72	66	72
Tratnik	73	77	61	70	74	75	70
Errazkin	72	77	63	72	74	73	74
Tenorio	84	76	59	67	78	76	79
Godoy	79	76	59	75	75	76	77
Arndt	79	76	71	75	77	76	72
Vysna	77	76	53	71	72	75	70
Sergis	75	76	58	70	69	73	73
Lane	74	76	63	73	70	68	72
Cerny	70	76	75	79	75	67	66

One name really stands out, and that is Skujins, as there shouldn’t be a breakaway winning in the third and fourth stage, the Latvian has a very real chance at capturing the red jersey. His biggest rival might come from Denmark, as Jensen is a very similar rider in many aspects, although he should still be clearly the weaker puncheur of the two.


There are also some GC riders on the list who could aim at that red jersey and stage wins in the hills such as Gesink and Formolo, but also Tenorio.


One thing is certain though, everyone should avoid going to the finish with Tenorio’s teammate Yates, who is clearly the strongest sprinter among the puncheurs. He’s actually such a decent sprinter that he might be joining the peloton sprints as well, could the green jersey be going to the UK?


Reichenbach and Teuns should be the only riders left to really have a shot at winning when a group with the riders on the list above go into a stage finale when a breakaway is not minutes ahead.


Now we’ve mentioned the green jersey, let’s have a look at the riders who should be joining the peloton sprints.

	FLA	SPR	ACC	STA	RES	REC
Grosu	73	83	80	74	70	79
Eislers	77	80	76	76	76	74
Hayakawa	73	79	79	75	68	76
Soupe	72	79	77	72	69	76
Stallaert	77	79	76	76	68	80
Harrison	72	78	81	73	70	76
Liepins	73	78	79	73	68	77
Bouglas	72	78	78	72	67	76
Liu	72	78	78	75	67	79
Jakobsen	72	78	78	73	72	79
Halvorsen	74	78	78	72	70	78
Yates	74	77	80	77	70	73
Silva	75	77	78	69	70	77
Markus	73	77	78	74	68	78
Merlier	72	77	74	71	71	64

Once again, one name really stands out: there are absolutely no excuses for Grosu to not win several stages and take the red jersey in the opening stage. Except for him, it should depend on daily form who will be scoring the most points. The most dangerous names to do so should be Eislers, Hayakawa, Soupe, Stallaert, Harrison and Liepins. Of course we can’t forget about Yates, as mentioned earlier. In the past five editions, the green jersey was always won by the same rider who won the GC. Time for a change?


There are two time trials which combine 66 km to be conquered by the riders. Most of the best time-trialists are riders who will be looking to get a good GC result as well. Let’s see who the other time-trialists are.

	TT	STA	RES	REC
Tenorio	80	78	76	79
Kritskiy	79	77	75	76
Fraile	79	74	76	72
Ligthart	78	72	66	68
Gesink	78	75	77	77
Lecuisinier	77	78	80	79
Tanfield	77	72	73	69
Haig	77	76	75	78
Goos	76	78	75	76
Danacik	76	75	72	74
Onodera	76	73	73	69
Shikai	76	74	76	78
Reis	76	78	76	78

Tenorio, Kritskiy and Fraile are the best time trialists. Desigual brings two home riders, with the former the biggest favourite to win the two time trials.


Ignoring the GC riders, Ligthart and Tanfield should be the best time trialists, but the two of them don’t recover as well as some other specialists on the list, such as Goos and Danacik. Nevertheless, the time trials remain Tenorio’s to lose.


Of course, in a GT, there will always be multiple breakaways winning some stages, so not every stage winner will be included on the lists above. That’s why the full startlist is shown below as well. Good luck to every manager and teams participating. Que la Fuerza te acompañe.

Stage podiums

	Winner	Second	Third
Stage 1	Harrison	Jakobsen	Bouglas
Stage 2	Grosu	Hayakawa	Harrison
Stage 3	Yates	Lecuisinier	Gesink
Stage 4	Lecuisinier	Tenorio	Gesink
Stage 5	Grosu	Soupe	Harrison
Stage 6	Tarvis	Skujins	Gesink
Stage 7	Rosch	Quita	Harper
Stage 8	Smit	Rodrigues	Bizkarra
Stage 9	Tenorio	Goos	Haig
Stage 10	Smit	David	Jensen
Stage 11	Lecuisinier	Tenorio	Kritskiy
Stage 12	Ballerini	Meiler	Oka
Stage 13	Gesink	Tenorio	Formolo
Stage 14	Novak	Sequera	Kozhatayev
Stage 15	Prado	Lecuisinier	Smith
Stage 16	Smith	Arndt	Brambilla
Stage 17	Prado	Fraile	Reis
Stage 18	Warchol	Smith	Sepulveda
Stage 19	Boonratanathanakorn	Mager	Valls
Stage 20	Hirt	Faglum Karlsson	Kirsch
Stage 21	Harrison	Grosu	Yates

Standings

	GC	Points	KoM	U25
1	Harrison	Harrison	Toupalik	Jakobsen
2	Harrison	Grosu	Toupalik	Toupalik
3	Harrison	Grosu	Toupalik	Toupalik
4	Lecuisinier	Grosu	Toupalik	van der Poel
5	Lecuisinier	Grosu	Toupalik	van der Poel
6	Lecuisinier	Grosu	Toupalik	van der Poel
7	Lecuisinier	Grosu	Toupalik	Toupalik
8	Smit	Grosu	Toupalik	Toupalik
9	Tenorio	Grosu	Toupalik	van der Poel
10	Smit	Grosu	Toupalik	van der Poel
11	Tenorio	Grosu	Elissonde	Godoy
12	Tenorio	Grosu	Elissonde	Godoy
13	Tenorio	Grosu	Elissonde	Godoy
14	Tenorio	Grosu	Novak	Godoy
15	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
16	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
17	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
18	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
19	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
20	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy
21	Lecuisinier	Lecuisinier	Novak	Godoy

Podium places - riders

	Winner	Second	Third	Total
Lecuisinier	2	2		4
Grosu	2	1		3
Harrison	2		2	4
Smit	2			2
Prado	2			2
Tenorio	1	3		4
Smith	1	1	1	3
Gesink	1		3	4
Yates	1		1	2
Tarvis	1			1
Rosch	1			1
Ballerini	1			1
Novak	1			1
Warchol	1			1
Boonratanathanakorn	1			1
Hirt	1			1
Jakobsen		1		1
Hayakawa		1		1
Soupe		1		1
Skujins		1		1
Quita		1		1
Rodrigues		1		1
Goos		1		1
David		1		1
Meiler		1		1
Sequera		1		1
Arndt		1		1
Fraile		1		1
Mager		1		1
Faglum Karlsson		1		1
Bouglas			1	1
Harper			1	1
Bizkarra			1	1
Haig			1	1
Jensen			1	1
Kritskiy			1	1
Oka			1	1
Formolo			1	1
Kozhatayev			1	1
Brambilla			1	1
Reis			1	1
Sepulveda			1	1
Valls			1	1
Kirsch			1	1

Podium places - teams

	Winner	Second	Third	Total
Moser - Sygic	3	1		4
Desigual	2	4	1	7
King Power	2	3	2	7
Festina - OAKA	2	2	1	5
EA Vesuvio	2	1	1	4
eBuddy	2	1	1	4
ISA - Hexacta	2		3	5
Isostar - Specialized	2		2	4
Duolingo	1		3	4
Aegon - Peroni	1		1	2
Air France - KLM	1			1
Indosat Ooredoo	1			1
Team Puma - SAP		3	1	4
Generali		2		2
Bennelong - Mitchelton		1	2	3
Volvo acc. by Spotify		1	1	2
Rakuten Pro Cycling		1		1
Evonik - ELKO		1		1
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha			1	1
Gazelle			1	1

Wait what!? No Phinney???

That chances the situation quite drastically towards a “must� win race. This really is a surprisingly weak race lineup. Even Bongiorno and Bouglas could on paper do well here.

I fear breakaway Bonanza once again though!

Our line-up is really comic with a podium contender + nobody else of quality. It should be enough for an interesting race nonthelesse.

Lecuisinier the no.1 favourite but with some interesting candidates in Kristskiy and especially Tenorio. Looking forward to it.

Thanks for the great preview Nemo!

Grosu by far the best sprinter here

You know what that means? You guessed it right, it's my turn to bitch about the breakaways.

Thanks for the preview!

Just hoping for a good GC result by Haig, who should be capable to fight for the Top-5 again. After what we got from the Giro, we do need more scoring through stages here though. Obviously hoping for our team to be in the breakaway matrix then. Another low scoring GT despite having a GC contender wouldn't be good at all.

Ooh weak startlist, could mean as SotD said a breakaway riders’ Mecca. Two top-15 climbers here should mean some interesting 2nd-3rd week breaks they hopefully will be a feature in. Lecuisner’s to lose, but a really interesting fight for 4th.

With the team I got here, I suppose a similar scenario to how the Giro played out wouldn't hurt my team if, say, Masnada or Rodrigues were our very own Maleckis. Thanks for taking on the Vuelta Nemo!

Possibly I should've brought Roglic here. Let's hope for loads of breakaways.

Aranburu and Asgreen both getting a chance to ride on the big stage here. With the Giro in the bag and Galta as a favorite but not the favorite, wondering it Alex might get a shot or two in a breakaway. Would be cool.

I clearly picked the wrong GT for Olivier...both Giro in especially and Vuelta as well would have seen him fight for a top5 even. On paper though Valls or Velits can again reach the top15 here. Seeing how the Giro went, I expect Valls to be the stronger but hopefully both are more active in breaks in the third week as the Giro was not very kind to them in those stages being passed by plenty of break riders.

Other than that pretty much same lineup as in the Giro with Caboni, Ciccone and Koep being there for the mountain stages, let`s hope they are actually taken as break options in the first two weeks this time.

van der Poel hopefully doing Giro things again while Toupalik and Ballerini are also decent break riders. Likely better options than Boom and Frison were in the Giro.

Stages 3 and 8 might actually be decent for Van der Poel.

Lecuisinier will have an easy GT win here, simply no one coming close with Tenorio maybe able to challenge a bit and Kritskiy will get a 2nd easy GT podium this season. Smart GT choices by Tinkoff here, which might really save them in the end.

Don't really know what to expect here... Lecuisinier has been great and Tenorio rather poor this year, but with basically just the mountain stat in Lecuisinier's favor and the big amount of TT kilometers, I could still imagine the Spaniard taking a second Vuelta win. Especially if the mountain stages are as lame as in the Giro, Tenorio (and Kritskiy) basically "just" have to keep up in the mountains and then make the difference in the TT.
On the other hand, Giro winner Taaramäe is only one stat point stronger than Kritskiy in the mountains, but still easily won. But if we get a "normal" race without any major AI jokes, these three should take the podium.

Of course, I would also support Matt's scenario - Masnada as a GT winner sounds great! But then I don't know how to fit his wage demands into my budget

I'd say overall the startlist is still not great, but slightly stronger than in the Giro. But I wonder what awaits us in the Tour then... Madrazo, Herklotz, Phinney, Morton, Dombrowski, Alarcon... None of them have done a GT so far...

Thanks for the preview and for taking on the Vuelta, Nemo!

Which is also why I'd rather have one of the loanees be my Malecki

Wow startlist is super weak. We could realistically win a stage or two in the sprints and if extremely luck even a TT. Obviously also hoping for a Top 10 from Shikai, but theres a lot of riders in his range of stats, but the fact Hayakawa is the 3rd best sprinter is just crazy to me, and Liu as backup as well. If anyone is gonna pull a Malecki, Im hoping it will be loan-in Brozyna, he's from the right country after all

Costagli sucked if Im being honest at the Giro, excluding his stage win, but I think Shikai has better support here with Brozyna, Shirota, Iino and Hatsuyama. If they aren't going to support him, hopefully they can atleast get into breakaways and win multiple stages.

That startlist looks super interesting for me.

Eislers being clearcut #2 sprinter is super surprising to me. Thought the chance for red would lead to some big names attending. I do have two other sprinters here so Becis - Liepins - Eislers could form a sprint train but i dont think Liepins fits particularly well as an Eislers leadout and had hoped that both would sprint on their own. Though i suspect that both of them will have to help in the chasing as i didnt really bring the strongest flat support either. Had i known that Eislers would be so high on the list of sprinters, i would surely have brought one of my bigger engines for the flat stages. Either someone like Stoltz or maybe Dzamastagic instead of Liepins for both a better leadout and more power on the flat. Seeing my lineup as one of the expected chasers could mean an increased chance for breaks on the flat stages and since an early succesful break would ruin the big goal we have set ourself for this race (red for Skujins), I would rather have seen one or two more big names at the startline with a committed sprint support team.

Then its time for Skujins. I wrote it already in my HQ before seeing the startlist that i sent him here as the face of our team with the clear goal of claiming red on stage 3 which could set us up for a nice haul. When i saw the profile, i knew immediately that i wanted to send a leader here but i had a hard time deciding which of Skujins, Lopez and Van Stayen would be the best bet for this race - Not sure whether i picked the right one but being able to cover a couple of hilly races with Lopez certainly helped freeing up enough race days for Skujins. I feel like i have a solid support team for him, especially if Tvetcov, Mas and Vosekalns will be treated as support for him in the first week instead of treating Tvetcov as a proper GC leader and the other ones as climbers who save themselves for whatever reason (which was a big reason for sending Tvetcov here instead of Chiarello since Chiarello surely wouldnt have worked for Skujins). Not seeing a single other top puncheur basically polarizes our scoring here - it increases the chance of getting stage wins + red early but it also increases the chance that we leave completely empty-handed with breaks stealing all the big points away from us.

In the mountains, Tvetcov is our GC leader but i certainly hope to see him as an attacker who joins breaks too as he shouldnt be good enough for a super high GC result anyway. Though seeing the number of climbers without tt skills above him in the start list, i see solid chances to reach the top 20 - especially if he ends up joining some right breaks. Vosekalns as always should attack on the mountainous stages and ideally go for the KoM too just like Mas and Sergis should be aggressiv too. But all of them are also here to make sure that Skujins will get into a situation where he can score the big points.


Huge, huge chance for Festina. Lecuisinier could shot them right back into a great PT rankings situation if he does well enough here. He is definitely the clear cut favourite here.



Please no break victories on flat stages or early hilly stages

Going to root for Reis to avenge his bad Giro luck and because McCormick's Thomas Revard makes his GT debut for King Power.

Sprint field is interesting, Keough would be the 4th sprinter on that list yet at the C2 Ras Tailteann he was so far down the favorite list he didn't even contest the sprints. Hopefully the PT teams decide to reinvest in sprinters next year.

Should be a good race for Lecuisinier.

Nesset should have a good chance for a decent GC result again. A weaker team this time around, but hopefully that won't be too important.

Lecuisinier is the overwhelming favourite here, and as knockout points out, this is a great chance for Festina to get right back in contention for the PT title, maybe even to take command and lead the way, as this is a chance to claim first place with solid gaps to the other top teams.

Kind of surprised to see such a "weak" lineup. Galta should be very capable of fighting for a top 5 here, which would be a great surprise. Not too sure he can manage though, as PCM 18 doesn't seem to be kind to him. Last season, and also this season so far, he seems to struggle a lot when he rides like a captain, but he has been brilliant when attacking for stages and KoM (last year's TdF as a great example). Admittedly I hoped for the latter when I put him both here and in the Tour, but judging by the quality in this field, I suspect he'll ride a defensive race. Fingers crossed he gets good daily forms on key stages, if not, this will be a long race for us

Having Galta that high on the list of favourites also makes me wonder if we're allowed to join the breakaway party. That's the obvious key to GT points success, and we need to participate there to bring in solid points, I suspect.

Great to see you take on a GT, Nemolito! Looking forward to see the racing get underway

Max Losch is on start for Aker-MOT - let's see how he performs in his quest to get maxed out

Thinking a little more about it we got a pretty awesome breakaway squad here in Gabburo and Tarvis for the lumpier stages and Bizkarra, Kozhatayev and white jersey candidate Novak on the climbs. Hopefully we can do something, though the race design should favour the bunch a little too often.