Welcome to Spain and welcome to the second GT of the year! The organizers have once again done a marvellous job creating a very interesting route in Spain, which includes six flat stages, seven hilly stages, seven mountain stages and two individual time trials combining a total of 66 km. Although the route (explained more in detail in this thread: https://pcmdaily....t_1365370) should be good for defending champion Taaramäe, he won’t be back. There are only two former winners present, both of them being here with a wildcard: Tenorio and Gesink. The line-up is not the strongest a GT has seen, which will give the opportunity to some lower rated climbers to score massive points for their teams. Let’s have a look at the climbers and GC riders who have made the trip to southern Spain, where La Vuelta will start tomorrow.
MTN
HIL
TT
STA
RES
REC
Lecuisinier
85
75
77
78
80
79
Tenorio
84
76
80
78
76
79
Kritskiy
83
74
79
77
75
76
Galta
81
73
73
78
79
77
Haig
81
74
77
76
75
78
Gesink
81
79
78
75
77
77
Reis
81
73
76
78
76
78
Hirt
81
74
73
77
79
79
Shikai
81
71
76
74
76
78
Schelling
80
75
72
75
76
73
Velits
79
72
71
69
68
67
Godoy
79
76
67
75
76
77
Kirsch
79
74
71
75
73
75
Bongiorno
79
75
68
77
77
77
Formolo
79
79
69
76
76
74
Anacona
79
74
66
75
72
74
Arndt
79
76
56
77
76
72
Faglum Karlsson
79
73
73
78
75
76
Valls
78
74
71
77
76
76
Brambilla
78
75
69
74
72
74
Vosekalns
78
75
62
69
73
72
Sosnitskiy
78
72
64
73
77
68
Nesset
78
73
69
77
76
74
Elissonde
78
73
63
76
77
79
Warchol
78
74
67
76
77
73
Campero
78
70
69
75
70
72
Smith
78
75
68
72
74
75
Lecuisinier is on a mission to win his first GT and he has a very decent shot at doing so. He is the best climber of the pack and can handle the other favourites in the hills as well. He is also a good time trialist, so there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be able to complete his mission and be the one finishing in red in Madrid three weeks from now.
There are two riders that can also be classified as top favourites and will do everything they can to keep the Frenchman from winning his first GT though. Tenorio is here on a wildcard, as mentioned above, and has the experience of winning this race, which he did in 2013. He is not only the best time trialist among the favourites, he is also the best time trialist coming to Spain. 66 time trial kilometres are not nothing, and could prove to be the deciding factor for the chances of the Spanish champion. Kritskiy is defending the colours of Team Tinkoff, and although he might be slightly worse in the mountains than the other top favourites, he will also be able to gain some time on Lecuisinier when on the time-trial bike.
Gesink, Haig, Reis and Shikai are the next riders on the list. They are all competent GC riders with a good time trial in their legs, but the Dutchman, who won the Vuelta in 2016 as part of eBuddy, clearly has an advantage over the others with his skillset in the hills. A top-3 will not be easy for him, but if he’s feeling good he could very well be the biggest threat to the three big favourites for a podium place.
Hirt, Galta and Schelling are the other top-10 contenders, but when they have a look at the startlist their managers will be dreaming of even a top-5. They’re not exceptionally strong in the hills or on a time-trial bike, but are still some very solid riders.
Looking at the other names on the list, there are not a lot of names who should be a real threat for the top-10 places, except for one rider maybe. Longer mountains at a solid pace or shorter hills going quickly are both not a problem for Formolo, while the latter might be difficult for some names above him. One problem for the Italian though, just as most of the other names below him he will be losing time during the two time trials.
The hills play an important part in the Vuelta as well, and although several stages will go to the breakaway, the puncheurs will also have their shot at stage glory. Let’s have a look at the puncheurs who will be participating.
MTN
HIL
SPR
ACC
STA
RES
REC
Skujins
70
83
68
76
80
77
73
Jensen
70
80
66
76
77
73
71
Gesink
81
79
59
65
75
77
77
Formolo
79
79
69
71
76
76
74
Reichenbach
73
79
63
69
76
69
73
Yates
70
79
77
80
77
70
73
Teuns
75
78
66
72
73
73
76
Bellis
68
78
74
75
80
71
69
Müller
64
78
65
70
74
70
69
Sepulveda
75
77
70
73
74
73
71
Mager
74
77
60
71
68
70
71
Budyak
73
77
57
67
72
66
72
Tratnik
73
77
61
70
74
75
70
Errazkin
72
77
63
72
74
73
74
Tenorio
84
76
59
67
78
76
79
Godoy
79
76
59
75
75
76
77
Arndt
79
76
71
75
77
76
72
Vysna
77
76
53
71
72
75
70
Sergis
75
76
58
70
69
73
73
Lane
74
76
63
73
70
68
72
Cerny
70
76
75
79
75
67
66
One name really stands out, and that is Skujins, as there shouldn’t be a breakaway winning in the third and fourth stage, the Latvian has a very real chance at capturing the red jersey. His biggest rival might come from Denmark, as Jensen is a very similar rider in many aspects, although he should still be clearly the weaker puncheur of the two.
There are also some GC riders on the list who could aim at that red jersey and stage wins in the hills such as Gesink and Formolo, but also Tenorio.
One thing is certain though, everyone should avoid going to the finish with Tenorio’s teammate Yates, who is clearly the strongest sprinter among the puncheurs. He’s actually such a decent sprinter that he might be joining the peloton sprints as well, could the green jersey be going to the UK?
Reichenbach and Teuns should be the only riders left to really have a shot at winning when a group with the riders on the list above go into a stage finale when a breakaway is not minutes ahead.
Now we’ve mentioned the green jersey, let’s have a look at the riders who should be joining the peloton sprints.
FLA
SPR
ACC
STA
RES
REC
Grosu
73
83
80
74
70
79
Eislers
77
80
76
76
76
74
Hayakawa
73
79
79
75
68
76
Soupe
72
79
77
72
69
76
Stallaert
77
79
76
76
68
80
Harrison
72
78
81
73
70
76
Liepins
73
78
79
73
68
77
Bouglas
72
78
78
72
67
76
Liu
72
78
78
75
67
79
Jakobsen
72
78
78
73
72
79
Halvorsen
74
78
78
72
70
78
Yates
74
77
80
77
70
73
Silva
75
77
78
69
70
77
Markus
73
77
78
74
68
78
Merlier
72
77
74
71
71
64
Once again, one name really stands out: there are absolutely no excuses for Grosu to not win several stages and take the red jersey in the opening stage. Except for him, it should depend on daily form who will be scoring the most points. The most dangerous names to do so should be Eislers, Hayakawa, Soupe, Stallaert, Harrison and Liepins. Of course we can’t forget about Yates, as mentioned earlier. In the past five editions, the green jersey was always won by the same rider who won the GC. Time for a change?
There are two time trials which combine 66 km to be conquered by the riders. Most of the best time-trialists are riders who will be looking to get a good GC result as well. Let’s see who the other time-trialists are.
TT
STA
RES
REC
Tenorio
80
78
76
79
Kritskiy
79
77
75
76
Fraile
79
74
76
72
Ligthart
78
72
66
68
Gesink
78
75
77
77
Lecuisinier
77
78
80
79
Tanfield
77
72
73
69
Haig
77
76
75
78
Goos
76
78
75
76
Danacik
76
75
72
74
Onodera
76
73
73
69
Shikai
76
74
76
78
Reis
76
78
76
78
Tenorio, Kritskiy and Fraile are the best time trialists. Desigual brings two home riders, with the former the biggest favourite to win the two time trials.
Ignoring the GC riders, Ligthart and Tanfield should be the best time trialists, but the two of them don’t recover as well as some other specialists on the list, such as Goos and Danacik. Nevertheless, the time trials remain Tenorio’s to lose.
Of course, in a GT, there will always be multiple breakaways winning some stages, so not every stage winner will be included on the lists above. That’s why the full startlist is shown below as well. Good luck to every manager and teams participating. Que la Fuerza te acompañe.
That chances the situation quite drastically towards a “must” win race. This really is a surprisingly weak race lineup. Even Bongiorno and Bouglas could on paper do well here.
Just hoping for a good GC result by Haig, who should be capable to fight for the Top-5 again. After what we got from the Giro, we do need more scoring through stages here though. Obviously hoping for our team to be in the breakaway matrix then. Another low scoring GT despite having a GC contender wouldn't be good at all.
Ooh weak startlist, could mean as SotD said a breakaway riders’ Mecca. Two top-15 climbers here should mean some interesting 2nd-3rd week breaks they hopefully will be a feature in. Lecuisner’s to lose, but a really interesting fight for 4th.
With the team I got here, I suppose a similar scenario to how the Giro played out wouldn't hurt my team if, say, Masnada or Rodrigues were our very own Maleckis. Thanks for taking on the Vuelta Nemo!
Aranburu and Asgreen both getting a chance to ride on the big stage here. With the Giro in the bag and Galta as a favorite but not the favorite, wondering it Alex might get a shot or two in a breakaway. Would be cool.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I clearly picked the wrong GT for Olivier...both Giro in especially and Vuelta as well would have seen him fight for a top5 even. On paper though Valls or Velits can again reach the top15 here. Seeing how the Giro went, I expect Valls to be the stronger but hopefully both are more active in breaks in the third week as the Giro was not very kind to them in those stages being passed by plenty of break riders.
Other than that pretty much same lineup as in the Giro with Caboni, Ciccone and Koep being there for the mountain stages, let`s hope they are actually taken as break options in the first two weeks this time.
van der Poel hopefully doing Giro things again while Toupalik and Ballerini are also decent break riders. Likely better options than Boom and Frison were in the Giro.
Stages 3 and 8 might actually be decent for Van der Poel.
Lecuisinier will have an easy GT win here, simply no one coming close with Tenorio maybe able to challenge a bit and Kritskiy will get a 2nd easy GT podium this season. Smart GT choices by Tinkoff here, which might really save them in the end.
Don't really know what to expect here... Lecuisinier has been great and Tenorio rather poor this year, but with basically just the mountain stat in Lecuisinier's favor and the big amount of TT kilometers, I could still imagine the Spaniard taking a second Vuelta win. Especially if the mountain stages are as lame as in the Giro, Tenorio (and Kritskiy) basically "just" have to keep up in the mountains and then make the difference in the TT.
On the other hand, Giro winner Taaramäe is only one stat point stronger than Kritskiy in the mountains, but still easily won. But if we get a "normal" race without any major AI jokes, these three should take the podium.
Of course, I would also support Matt's scenario - Masnada as a GT winner sounds great! But then I don't know how to fit his wage demands into my budget
I'd say overall the startlist is still not great, but slightly stronger than in the Giro. But I wonder what awaits us in the Tour then... Madrazo, Herklotz, Phinney, Morton, Dombrowski, Alarcon... None of them have done a GT so far...
Thanks for the preview and for taking on the Vuelta, Nemo!
Fabianski wrote:
Of course, I would also support Matt's scenario - Masnada as a GT winner sounds great! But then I don't know how to fit his wage demands into my budget
Which is also why I'd rather have one of the loanees be my Malecki
Wow startlist is super weak. We could realistically win a stage or two in the sprints and if extremely luck even a TT. Obviously also hoping for a Top 10 from Shikai, but theres a lot of riders in his range of stats, but the fact Hayakawa is the 3rd best sprinter is just crazy to me, and Liu as backup as well. If anyone is gonna pull a Malecki, Im hoping it will be loan-in Brozyna, he's from the right country after all
Costagli sucked if Im being honest at the Giro, excluding his stage win, but I think Shikai has better support here with Brozyna, Shirota, Iino and Hatsuyama. If they aren't going to support him, hopefully they can atleast get into breakaways and win multiple stages.
Eislers being clearcut #2 sprinter is super surprising to me. Thought the chance for red would lead to some big names attending. I do have two other sprinters here so Becis - Liepins - Eislers could form a sprint train but i dont think Liepins fits particularly well as an Eislers leadout and had hoped that both would sprint on their own. Though i suspect that both of them will have to help in the chasing as i didnt really bring the strongest flat support either. Had i known that Eislers would be so high on the list of sprinters, i would surely have brought one of my bigger engines for the flat stages. Either someone like Stoltz or maybe Dzamastagic instead of Liepins for both a better leadout and more power on the flat. Seeing my lineup as one of the expected chasers could mean an increased chance for breaks on the flat stages and since an early succesful break would ruin the big goal we have set ourself for this race (red for Skujins), I would rather have seen one or two more big names at the startline with a committed sprint support team.
Then its time for Skujins. I wrote it already in my HQ before seeing the startlist that i sent him here as the face of our team with the clear goal of claiming red on stage 3 which could set us up for a nice haul. When i saw the profile, i knew immediately that i wanted to send a leader here but i had a hard time deciding which of Skujins, Lopez and Van Stayen would be the best bet for this race - Not sure whether i picked the right one but being able to cover a couple of hilly races with Lopez certainly helped freeing up enough race days for Skujins. I feel like i have a solid support team for him, especially if Tvetcov, Mas and Vosekalns will be treated as support for him in the first week instead of treating Tvetcov as a proper GC leader and the other ones as climbers who save themselves for whatever reason (which was a big reason for sending Tvetcov here instead of Chiarello since Chiarello surely wouldnt have worked for Skujins). Not seeing a single other top puncheur basically polarizes our scoring here - it increases the chance of getting stage wins + red early but it also increases the chance that we leave completely empty-handed with breaks stealing all the big points away from us.
In the mountains, Tvetcov is our GC leader but i certainly hope to see him as an attacker who joins breaks too as he shouldnt be good enough for a super high GC result anyway. Though seeing the number of climbers without tt skills above him in the start list, i see solid chances to reach the top 20 - especially if he ends up joining some right breaks. Vosekalns as always should attack on the mountainous stages and ideally go for the KoM too just like Mas and Sergis should be aggressiv too. But all of them are also here to make sure that Skujins will get into a situation where he can score the big points.
Huge, huge chance for Festina. Lecuisinier could shot them right back into a great PT rankings situation if he does well enough here. He is definitely the clear cut favourite here.
Please no break victories on flat stages or early hilly stages
Going to root for Reis to avenge his bad Giro luck and because McCormick's Thomas Revard makes his GT debut for King Power.
Sprint field is interesting, Keough would be the 4th sprinter on that list yet at the C2 Ras Tailteann he was so far down the favorite list he didn't even contest the sprints. Hopefully the PT teams decide to reinvest in sprinters next year.
Lecuisinier is the overwhelming favourite here, and as knockout points out, this is a great chance for Festina to get right back in contention for the PT title, maybe even to take command and lead the way, as this is a chance to claim first place with solid gaps to the other top teams.
Kind of surprised to see such a "weak" lineup. Galta should be very capable of fighting for a top 5 here, which would be a great surprise. Not too sure he can manage though, as PCM 18 doesn't seem to be kind to him. Last season, and also this season so far, he seems to struggle a lot when he rides like a captain, but he has been brilliant when attacking for stages and KoM (last year's TdF as a great example). Admittedly I hoped for the latter when I put him both here and in the Tour, but judging by the quality in this field, I suspect he'll ride a defensive race. Fingers crossed he gets good daily forms on key stages, if not, this will be a long race for us
Having Galta that high on the list of favourites also makes me wonder if we're allowed to join the breakaway party. That's the obvious key to GT points success, and we need to participate there to bring in solid points, I suspect.
Great to see you take on a GT, Nemolito! Looking forward to see the racing get underway
Thinking a little more about it we got a pretty awesome breakaway squad here in Gabburo and Tarvis for the lumpier stages and Bizkarra, Kozhatayev and white jersey candidate Novak on the climbs. Hopefully we can do something, though the race design should favour the bunch a little too often.
Vuelta a España
