2023 marks the 15th consecutive year on the Mangame calendar for the Tour of Slovenia. Within in that time the parcours and the level of the race has varied. Currently it is PTHC and the most recent winners have been TT’ers who can climb pretty well – two years ago Ganna and last year Wirtgen. With the parcours unchanged Wirtgen seems like the more likely candidate to be the first two-time winner of the Tour of Slovenia, although Ganna managed 3rd last year so he is in with a shout. 2021 winner Bobridge and 2020 winner Sepulveda are on the startlist as well although Bobridge has aged since his victory and Sepulveda won it at a lower level. In addition to the last 4 winners, 2016 winner Yatsevich is also back.
2nd last year was Dunbar, who is also back, and he was the real threat to Wirtgen’s win, finishing only 28 seconds down while Ganna lost an additional minute.
The parcours requires three things: an ability to thrive on punchy finishing climbs (stages 3 and 4), a strong TT team for the 31k TTT on stage 2 and a great ability on the time trial bike for the 53k individual time trial on the last stage. There is also a sprint stage (stage 1) but that shouldn’t impact the GC.
Looking first at riders who combine the climbing and TT skills to threaten the overall:
Rider
MT
HI
TT
RS
AC
Würtz
67
71
83
78
70
Wirtgen
78
75
82
75
72
Mullen
62
70
81
74
70
Dunbar
77
76
80
77
68
Ganna
69
73
80
81
73
Paillot
70
71
80
74
64
Oliveira
70
72
79
72
72
Cataford
72
70
79
75
69
Geoghegan Hart
79
74
78
74
69
Bernal
82
74
78
80
69
Conci
77
74
78
75
68
Munton
74
73
78
74
64
Ioannidis
75
73
78
74
70
Ferreyra
72
72
78
74
69
Kämna
77
71
78
73
67
Brunel
67
71
78
78
65
Cosnefroy
68
71
78
81
69
Fraile
75
71
78
75
65
Hayter
66
70
78
78
73
Pelikan
66
70
78
72
69
Wirtgen stands out on this list as the 2nd best time trialist and one of the best climbers with Dunbar again not far behind. The other Top TTers, Würtz and Mullen will be under pressure on the hilly stages. Although Würtz did well enough to take 7th last year.
The next four, Ganna, Paillot, Oliveira, and Cataford are all slightly weaker in the TT but stronger on the climbs. Ganna and Oliveira were both in the top 5 last year.
But the TTer’s might be more under pressure this year as the next two names on the list are true GC riders who could make the climbing stages much harder. Geoghegan Hart and Bernal will want those stages to be tough to make up for the time they lose in the ITT.
The remaining riders will likely be fighting for the bottom of the top 10 but both Conci and Fraile have form here, the former was 6th last year and the latter 4th. With these two the top 7 on GC last year have all returned.
There are a small group of riders who could thrive if the climbing stages prove selective as their TT skills are good enough to keep them in the picture if they can gain a lot of time over the TTers on stages 3 and 4. These include the other two former winners:
Rider
MT
HI
TT
RS
AC
Bobridge
67
81
75
71
77
Izagirre
72
79
75
69
61
Sepulveda
75
77
75
73
73
Bazhkou
69
75
76
75
64
Dennis
73
74
77
73
66
Craddock
73
74
76
75
68
There are also a group of TTers who are hoping for the opposite. If the climbing stages don’t trigger big gaps their TT skills could put them in the top 10. Even if that doesn’t happen, these riders will hope to do well in the ITT stage. Yatsevich is in this group:
Rider
MT
HI
TT
RS
AC
Lammertink
64
69
80
76
68
Yatsevich
55
68
80
81
63
Viennet
54
67
80
75
64
Howson
59
65
80
74
68
Vlatos
51
65
80
70
65
Sütterlin
59
65
80
77
60
Gonzalez Salas
57
60
80
76
54
Bjerg
64
68
79
77
70
Hepburn
64
66
79
77
69
Zakarin
66
66
79
70
70
Norsgaard
62
65
79
75
66
Dal Col
58
64
79
72
70
Tanfield
59
63
79
75
72
Rekita
58
63
79
73
70
Goldstein
55
61
79
72
61
The reason there are all these great time trial riders at the race is the TTT and the line up is a daunting one for those hopefuls who don’t have a stacked TT machine backing them up.
Team
Top 8
Top 5
Top 3
EA Vesuvio
78.4 (1)
79.2 (1)
80.0 (1)
Polar
77.9 (2)
78.8 (3)
79.7 (2)
Cedevita
77.6 (3)
78.8 (3)
79.3 (3)
Grieg-Maersk
77.1 (4)
77.8 (5)
79.0 (5)
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
76.1 (5)
79.0 (2)
79.3 (3)
Jura GIANTS
75.9 (6)
77.8 (5)
78.3 (6)
Team Puma - SAP
75.8 (7)
76.6 (11)
77.3 (12)
cycleYorkshire
75.3 (8)
77.8 (5)
78.3 (6)
ZARA - Irizar
74.9 (9)
77.0 (9)
78.0 (9)
Bralirwa - Stevens
74.8 (10)
75.6 (14)
76.7 (16)
ELCO - ABEA
74.8 (10)
77.2 (8)
78.3 (6)
Indosat Ooredoo
74.6 (12)
76.6 (11)
77.7 (11)
Minions
74.4 (13)
76.8 (10)
78.0 (9)
McCormick Pro Cycling
74.0 (14)
75.6 (14)
76.3 (18)
ISA - Hexacta
73.5 (15)
75.2 (17)
76.0 (20)
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
72.6 (16)
74.2 (20)
75.3 (21)
Tryg - Gobik
72.5 (17)
75.4 (16)
77.0 (13)
Los Pollos Hermanos
72.4 (18)
75.2 (17)
77.0 (13)
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
72.4 (18)
75.2 (17)
76.3 (18)
Spark-BNZ Racing
71.0 (20)
76.0 (13)
77.0 (13)
Assa Abloy
70.1 (21)
74.0 (21)
76.7 (16)
Zwift Pro Cycling
69.0 (22)
73.0 (22)
74.7 (22)
Lidl Cycling
67.0 (23)
70.2 (23)
73.3 (23)
Aker - MOT
64.0 (24)
65.8 (24)
67.0 (24)
Wirtgen will hope to already have the GC lead after the Stage 2 TTT as his EA Vesuvio team is the best in the race, whether you consider their top 3 riders, their top 5 riders or all 8. However, the gaps won’t be big to two of his top climbing rivals as Bernal and Geoghegan Hart also have uniformly strong TTT teams. Among the top GC contenders Ganna and Dunbar are not as strong with particularly the latter likely to be facing a material deficit after the TTT. Looking at the broader list of GC candidates, Paillot, Cataford and Bobridge are in weak positions in terms of their TTT teams.
Considering the need to bring a strong TTT team and that there is just 1 sprint stage a weak sprinting field might be expected, but that isn't totally the case.
Rider
FL
SP
AC
RS
Silvestre
77
79
79
69
Kalaba
74
79
79
72
Banaszek
74
79
81
73
Perera
71
79
80
73
Harrison
72
78
81
70
Peak
80
78
78
77
Walls
72
78
76
70
Zhao
74
77
81
74
Ackermann
72
77
80
71
Wouters
75
77
79
75
Forssell
68
76
76
73
The sprinters present are pretty evenly matched and none of these riders would be a surprise winner of stage 1. The winner will get the added bonus of a day in the leader’s jersey.
Huh, I didn't realize just how bad my TTT team is. Knew the Belevics sale would haunt me at some point.
Goals are... a Kamna top 20? I don't know. Maybe Forssell draws the sprint lottery somehow, or we get really lucky with a break. I'm not expecting much. This is an area where the gap between PT and PCT is pretty huge.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Hoping for lots of points, but the startlist is stacked so I won't be that surprised if things don't go our way. Hopefully we keep the momentum from the Tour going.
If this was a HC or a C1 race, I'd have hopes for Izagirre, but in this type of field, the best he can hope for is probably a lower end Top 25 result, if even that. Best case might be him, Uwizeyimana and maybe even Hadi in the Top 50, at least in the Top 100, and then most of our hopes rest on Silvestre for stage 1. Chances aren't bad for a Top 3 I think.
Another case of Dennis and Cattaneo being in contention if the race is raced in a specific way, which it most likely isn't. We'll see how good or bad it goes.
Ouch, that startlist
I thought most PT teams wouldn't send their best outfits to PTHC races - just looking at startlists like in Portugal - but I was definitely completely wrong on that one.
I even thought it was a good idea to have this race as a Top 5 goal - turns out it wasn't my brightest move.
Whereas I think that we do have a pretty strong PCT team, it's just looking pretty weak compared to the PT competition here. However, it's still one of these races where pretty much anything can happen. There's obviously no way past Wirtgen, with EA having the strongest TTT lineup and Wirtgen probably easily making up any potential stage 3/4 time loss in the ITT. Bernal and Tao are also looking great with their TTT support, whereas many of the other top-level TTers might start into stage 5 with some kind of handicap.
We'll obviously not be able to get a Top 5 in the TTT either, but who knows what can happen on the hilly stages... Errazkin should be a Top 5 puncheur here, with Masnada as the better TTer not far behind. The latter also is one of the better hybrids here - and we also have Darbellay as a pure climber.
But our biggest hope probably is Küng, who already has a Top 5 finish in Slovenia to his name. A repeat would probably be a little surprising - but if we can make the hilly stages hard and drop many of the pure TTers, it might not be impossible.
In general, this could be almost a zero-pointer for us - but it could also turn out to be quite a big scoring race. The most likely outcome probably is something in the middle - we'll see.
Good luck to all, and thanks for preview & reports.
Had high expectations for this race until our two previous TTT performances this season, and I think we won’t even land in the top-10. I expect us to lose a shitload of time because AI and then have the hill stages not be selective at all leading to an easy Wurtz victory.
It's really annoying to already be dropping three of our depth scoring options after S1, but it seems to happen in most races. Some teams are worse off than us, I guess it is what it is.
Würtz safely through, but a bummer that everybody else missed the split. Sp pretty much every chance at depth points are gone. Not what we need in our situation.
Waiting for the hill stage to be dropped when you can be dropped on the flat stage is a tactic used by Zepuntke in Benelux and now even perfected by Sütterlin in Slovenia. While the opponents are in the year 2023, we are in 3005.
Still a great stage though, as Hollmann made sure we will not leave the race pointless, which was always our big goal. Solid performance by the young Würth-Modyf loanee. If we're lucky enough he might join the break again and actually score some point in the final KoM-rankings that way as well.
What's most scary for our opponents is we still have the Quispe-card to play of course.
Good first stage for us, for some reason three stage racers of ours in the top-20 of a flat stage. Dreading the TTT now. Congrats scorching on the win!
Great, once again half of the team getting shafted by the AI... I considered especially Masnada and Darbellay to be potential scoring options - they'll have to do it via breakaways now. These two plus Errazkin should be good options for that strategy now - but with our complete lack of luck lately, it won't be happening...
At least the AI seemed to identify Brunel and Küng to be potential GC riders, but if they fail on the hills this could well turn out to be a zero-pointer.
Really hating the AI on flat stages with these random splits. Wish we'd be on the lucky side for once.
We're very clearly here for some stage aggressiveness and Mohoric opportunities on stage 3 nd 4. That's definitely what we hope and aim for here, and hopefully he can take it to the GC riders. Not to make any GC result, as that is completely out of the question here seeing the TTT and TT, but a couple of good stge placings would be nice, and also good, seeing his stats and the contenders' stats.
Good to have Zhao up there on the first stage! 5th is good, not many points, but fairly close to the bigger points too. Congratulations on the opening win, Scorchio!
Absolute madness from the boys to finish sixth in this TTT as the best pct team. Looking at the results we couldn't have done it without Quispe, who sacrificed himself with a monstrous turn in the beginning to then finish the rest of the ttt by himself. Hollmann goes from one point to four points and takes over the white jersey, which is definitely not a common feat for an LPH rider. I hope Team Würth Modyf is proud of him.
Tour of Slovenia 
Quispe is here to save the day of course.
