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GP Lugano - Discussion
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 13-05-2023 10:57
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Protected Rider
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PCM$: 200.00
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 [C1] GP Lugano
Welcome to the shore of Lake Lugano to the 4th edition of the GP Lugano.
The race is over 180 km long and located in Switzerland, so it’s no surprise that the riders will face a lot of hills. So the puncheurs should be the favourites here, shouldn’t they? Well, the races history will tell us.
The race debuted as late as 2019, being in the C1 category ever since. Despite its hilly profile all previous editions were decided in a reduced bunch sprint, thus adding the names of sprinters Michael Van Stayen and Pascal Ackermann to the list of winners (which only includes Cyril Gautier on top of that).
None of the previous winners is at the start, so someone new will add this race to his palmares.
Previous winners:
Spoiler
| Year | Winner | | | | | | | | | | 2021 | Michael Van Stayen (Carrefour - ESPN) | | 2020 | Pascal Ackermann (Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff) | | 2019 | Cyril Gautier (Valio - Viking Genetics) |
2021 results:
Spoiler
| 1 | Michael Van Stayen | Carrefour - ESPN | 4h40'29 | | 2 | Hayden McCormick | Duolingo | s.t. | | 3 | Pedro Miguel Paulinho | Binance Cycling | s.t. | | 4 | Takeaki Amezawa | Aker - MOT | s.t. | | 5 | Josip Rumac | Kraftwerk Man Machine | s.t. | | 6 | Momchil Robov | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | s.t. | | 7 | Daniele Dall'Oste | Team UBS | s.t. | | 8 | Pascal Ackermann | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | s.t. | | 9 | Patrick Müller | Team UBS | s.t. | | 10 | Sergio Luis Henao Montoya | Binance Cycling | s.t. |
The startlist is composed of 14 PCT and 10 CT teams. Given the profile of the race, the puncheurs seem to be the favourites here, but history shows that sprinters who survive the hills have at least equally good chances.
Hilly Sprinters:
They might not be the best sprinters or puncheurs at the start, but they might be the best combinations of both. Given that,  Hugo Houle and  Wesley Kreder are the best bets for the win.
| | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | | | Houle | Hugo | 75 | 76 | 71 | 79 | 78 | Xero Racing |  Aregger | Marcel | 71 | 72 | 71 | 78 | 77 | Jura GIANTS |  Redecker | Heiko | 72 | 74 | 67 | 77 | 78 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Kreder | Wesley | 75 | 75 | 71 | 77 | 78 | Strava |  Dzamastagic | Mark | 70 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 78 | HelloFresh - Lampre |  Korosec | Rok | 75 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 78 | Trans Looney Tunes |  Grosser | Aaron | 74 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 75 | Staffbase - BHP |  Oliveira | Rui | 76 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 78 | Binance |
Puncheurs:
Given the races history, these riders will probably need an attack to get rid of the sprinters or a really good day in a bunch sprint. As there are loads of puncheurs here, this list is merely the top of the iceberg.
| | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | |  Jensen | Kristian Haugaard | 80 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 76 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank |  Bilbao | Pello | 79 | 77 | 71 | 71 | 75 | Kraftwerk Man Machine |  Edmondson | Joshua | 79 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 76 | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Bystrom | Sven Erik | 79 | 75 | 72 | 68 | 76 | Trans Looney Tunes |  Chernetskiy | Sergey | 79 | 80 | 69 | 63 | 71 | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Boily | David | 78 | 72 | 72 | 68 | 74 | Kraftwerk Man Machine |  Gesbert | Elie | 78 | 80 | 78 | 68 | 73 | Assa Abloy |  Teuns | Dylan | 78 | 73 | 73 | 66 | 72 | Le Creuset |  Dyrnes | Kristian | 78 | 73 | 73 | 65 | 77 | Tafjord Kraft |  Eriksson | Lucas | 78 | 78 | 74 | 65 | 76 | Cedevita | | Watson | Calvin | 78 | 76 | 72 | 62 | 72 | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Felline | Fabio | 77 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 78 | Strava |
Pure Sprinters:
Their chances may be small, but there are enough pure sprinters at the start that it might just happen that one of them survives the hills to take the win. So here they are:
| | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | | | Kennaugh | Peter | 64 | 73 | 70 | 81 | 80 | HelloFresh - Lampre |  Guerao | Oscar | 63 | 68 | 61 | 81 | 73 | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren |  Silvestre | Fabio | 67 | 70 | 71 | 80 | 81 | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Riabushenko | Aliaksandr | 68 | 71 | 74 | 79 | 77 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Vingerling | Michael | 62 | 72 | 66 | 79 | 79 | HelloFresh - Lampre | | Reinhardt | Theo | 67 | 73 | 66 | 79 | 84 | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Kennett | Dylan | 65 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 78 | Binance | | Coutinho | Lionel | 65 | 75 | 74 | 79 | 80 | Assa Abloy | | Selig | Rüdiger | 64 | 71 | 66 | 78 | 79 | Trans Looney Tunes |
Break of the Day:
Though the previous editions weren’t won from the break, the course should at least give a chance for a winning break. So here are the best fighters on the startlist:
| | FL | ST | RS | AC | FG | | | Varga | Peter | 77 | 76 | 73 | 80 | 83 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Jensen | Kristian Haugaard | 71 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 81 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Katrasnik | Gasper | 81 | 72 | 76 | 72 | 81 | Cedevita | | Mosca | Jacopo | 71 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 80 | Assa Abloy | | Dieteren | Jan | 67 | 75 | 70 | 66 | 80 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | Tanovitchii | Nicolae | 72 | 75 | 72 | 71 | 79 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska |
Honourable Mentions:
As the season is coming to an end it’s time to mention (and honour) those riders who could retire at the end of the season. Those riders probably are  Daniel Martin and  Benat Intxausti, as they are the oldest competitors this year.
Full start list:
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 13-05-2023 12:29
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Team Manager
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We're here, but do we have anything to offer? Chances are slim that Silvestre makes it to the line in the front group, as you said. Hadi on paper should love this race but I also doubt the game will treat him as a contender. Eyob and Ndayisenga are our best puncheurs, so maybe they might be our best bet at a result? I don't expect much, but I'd be happy to be pleasantly surprised. Thanks for the preview, good luck everyone!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 05:26
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| MacC |
Posted on 13-05-2023 13:34
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
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Serious end of season vibes off the Glanbia team here.
Talansky's last roll of the dice. A top 20 would be welcome
Thanks for preview
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 13-05-2023 13:44
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Team Leader
Posts: 7293
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Keen to see how Edmondson goes. We have Watson ad Schleck as back up too so hopefully we can get a good result.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 13-05-2023 16:28
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Hilly sprints are never really our thing, but having two puncheurs, we could afford to send one of them here in the hopes the race is difficult enough to make it worthwhile. I'm not super optimistic based on previous year's results, but I can only hope that KHJ is aggressive towards the finish and doesn't finish an anonymous 25th or something. A BOTD appearance would also be foolish in my opinion, but maybe I'm wrong on that.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 13-05-2023 17:43
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 05-10-2021
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What sort of team did we send here?
No hope for Guearo to be there in the end, so I hope the team will not ride for him. Maybe someone can get a decent placing.
Thanks for the preview, good luck everyone.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 13-05-2023 21:09
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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Similar profile as in Frankfurt, where Aregger disappointed. The engine didn't like well-rounded riders there, with sprinters who are way weaker on the climb making the front group. Let's hope this works out better in one of our home races.
Houle or Kreder should be the obvious favorites, as mentioned in the preview, but I'd love to see Aregger get a Top 10 in one of his final maxed races. And maybe finally, finally see Schmid do something useful when it actually matters?
Thanks for the preview!
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 13-05-2023 23:26
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Rumac came 5th here last year, hope he can top 5 again.
We have a few puncheurs with a bit of a sprint, would be good to get some depth scoring as well.
Thanks for the preview kandesbunzler.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 14-05-2023 09:00
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
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Hopefully we have a strong race here but historically I'd love to have Kumpi back for one race 
Thanks for the preview!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 14-05-2023 11:37
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Mostly as expected, except that I would have liked to see us in the breakaway. But that's alright. Thanks for the nice report and congrats to Caja Rural and Kraftwerk!
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 14-05-2023 11:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 7293
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Top 20 for Edmondson isn’t bad but I was hoping for more! Anyway hopefully he can continue to show the good form in the ToA.
Congrats to the winner and thanks for the report
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 14-05-2023 12:27
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Sad noises intensify :'(
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 14-05-2023 13:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Terrible race for us. We knew we took a gamble, but if a guy like Arndt can be second on this terrain, KHJ has to be in the top 20. Very tough to swallow. Especially given the lack of any aggression at all when the parcours demanded it.
Thanks for the report though!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 14-05-2023 16:46
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
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Wow didn't expect a 2-3! Reward for Rumac and Boily putting the pressure on.
Congrats to Caja Rural and thanks for a great report.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 14-05-2023 19:49
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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Absolutely shameful home race for us. We didn't even try the least thing, and Schmid once again was completely anonymous in the end. It's a 100% disappointing season by him, he should do so much better with his skillset (if Tesfaye can get a Top 15, Mauro could easily be there as well). Aregger was never in contention, which is painful as well given e.g. Dzama in 16th place. Yep, generally speaking we're not ready at all for PCT. And apparently the issue is not the riders, as in every race we do bad similar riders do well, but it looks to be an issue with their attitude.
And yeah, maybe I'm complaining too much, but the fact is that this was our worst classic result of the season.
Congrats to surprise winner Serrano - and to Kraftwerk, who seem to be having a pretty decent late season once again
Thanks for the report.
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| Ezeefreak |
Posted on 15-05-2023 06:11
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Domestique
Posts: 555
Joined: 06-07-2009
PCM$: 300.00
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First, Thanks for the report and congrats to the winners!
Otherwise there isnt much to say about our race. The result is kinda as expected and again shows our current capabilities. With Position 20 Grosser could score a view Points and thats fine. We can be satisfied with that even if we cant be overly happy.
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| redordead |
Posted on 15-05-2023 07:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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I didn't expect too much from this race, the startlist was filled with quite a few stronger and faster riders. McCormick 13th and Eriksson 18th is something.
Congrats to Caja and Kraftwerk and thanks for the report 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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