Welcome to the biggest race on the U23 scene. While many young riders have already made their prescense in the world of cycling, the Tour de l'Avenir is where they are all collected and match up against eachother in a 9 day long, endurant and versatile race that leaves only the top cobblers envious.
The history of this race can't be negliged with former winners counting Grand Tour champions such as Robert Gesink, Aleksandr Pluchkin, Taylor Phinney, Justo Tenorio aswell as recent Tour winner Silvio Herklotz. The winners of the more recent editions, Tadej Pogacar, Nicola Conci, Mark Padun and Sam Oomen are also well on their way to make an international name of themselves.
Last season saw the bloom of riders such as Attila Valter, Adomaitis Rojus, Matus Stocek, Mikkel Bjerg, Joao Almeida and a very young Matteo Jorgensen who is with us again this time.
For a history check, the Tour de l'Avenir History page gives a great throwback into the past - and for some riders the present.
But for now, let's forget about the past, and look the to present, which in most cases are definately also the future! The route of this years edition looks as such:
The race begins in Maurepas with a prologue of 6,7km, before throwing two flat stages in our direction to maybe create a little bit of traction for those that can combine prologues and sprints. The stage to Contres is long, and for some riders might be their first encounter of more than 190km of riding. Stage 3 starts in the beautyful Zoo Parc de Beauval and ends in Saint-Amand-Montrond during which we encounters the first small bumps on the road. It shouldn't be enough to throw anyone off the back though.
The same can't be said from here onwards though. Stage 4 to Morbihan is up and down all day and what the climbs lack in altitude they have in quantity. It's time to sneak away the leaders jersey for the time being and many riders will have this stage firmly studied as it can well be won from a breakaway. A lot of the GC riders will also look to this stage as a key moment to gain time on the stronger climbers or timetriallists.
The stage 5 from Rodes to the climb of Croix Neuve is hard and difficult. You cannot win this from being smarter than the others, you have to be stronger aswell. A gap can be created from the early break, but it will by mano y mano regardless of numbers when fighting the last 30 km of the stage. And there is no time to breath if you are in ambition of winning the race, because a monstrous 53km individual timetrial to Besancon will leave all the gunners breathless. The timetrial isn't completely flat, and may force riders to go over their limit and exhaust themselves towards massive and unsalvageable timeloss.
Stage 7 is the last chance to flex the muscle if you are not part of the GC battle, and while it does look like a sprint stage finish the 214km of bumpy roads with a steep climb in the final quarter of the stage could see breakaway specialists steal the glory.
The final 2 stages wnd in Pra-Loup and Saint Jean de Maurienne and is for the climbers. The first is in great altitude, which the colombians will be looking forward too, while the final stage is more sneaky endeavors which might call for the daredevils with a couple of fierce looking descents towards the end of the stage.
So who can we expect to fare well in a race like this? Let's give it some looks. We start with the favorites list.
FAVORITES
Name
MO
HI
TT
ACC
A. Ardila
76
75
67
71
T. Johannessen
75
70
67
72
M. Jorgensen
74
72
72
69
M. Schmid
73
74
67
75
A. Leknessund
73
71
74
68
T. Pidcock
73
74
70
[b]78
M. Vansevenant
70
75
68
76
R. Evenepoel
69
72
72
70
Many bookmakers will have their eyes firmly set on the colombian climber Andres Camilo Ardila who fancy mountains and hills regardless of altitude or difficulty. He has his compatriot Santiago Butraigo by his side making one of the best lieutenaints of the race. Also Alekss Krasts and Asbjorn Hellemose should supplement the workduties. The issue with Ardila might be the early part of the race aswell as the timetrial. He isn't horrible against the clock, but he doesn't really fancy the flat stages either, and might struggle with concentration.
A climber with a similar mindset, but not quite as strong will be the norwegian Tobias Halland Johannessen, who in fact has his twin brother Anders Halland Johannessen in the race aswell, but for seperate teams. It is the former that has an actual shot at winning the race though, but while he's a top climber his weaknesses are difficult to look past. He has a better physical package than the more obscure Ardila, but not the top level, and without a strong timetrial ability either I think it's the next rider on the list that shines the brightest!
American Matteo Jorgensen is a spectacular rider at this level and very versatile. He can climb, he can TT and he fares well in both flat and hilly stages. He even have a brilliant setup with Chaiyasombat and Quinn by his side. If we should look at a few weaknesses it might be his ability to be aggressive. This isn't necessarily a real dissadvantage though as he reads the races well, and rarely go out of his own control, but it might be a spot where others can team up against him.
Two riders in particular seem to be able to pose a serious all-round threat. Another norwegian rider in Andreas Leknessund and the british phenomena Thomas Pidcock. Both are solid climbers just outside the very best, have no issue what so ever with focus and concentration and their physical attributes are World Tour level already. Leknessund might have the upper hand when looking at the timetrial perspective, and might not lose a lot in the hills either, but he will have to beat his rivals in the timetrial to win the race. Pidcock will look to limit his losses in the timetrial, but he's competent at that and then he can attack every other scenario. He's fast - probably among the fasts, he's among the best puncheurs and he had an amazing downhill skill aswell as a furious acceleration. The team around Pidcock isn't quite matching his rivals though, whereas Leknessund have another outsider for the podium Remco Evenepoel by his side.
A rider that will look to mimic the like of Pidcock is Mauro Schmid who's a great puncheur and decent climber and a great attacker. I wouldn't be surprised to see Schmid fight for the podium in this race, but he's just a tad too weak in his strongest abilities to throw him into the plate of most likely winners. The race leaders will have to be on their toes though as just a small gap can make the swiss rider taste blood.
The final link of the race favorites is Mauri Vansevenant who has already shown great escape-artism at the biggest scenes this season. He's not quite the rider of many others, but he is probably the best puncheur, and might get enough of a gap in those stages to be difficult to beat if he get the leaders jersey.
The list of outsiders, however is a mixture of domestiques and lesser riders with some freedom.
OUTSIDERS
Name
MO
HI
TT
ACC
T. Chaiyasombat
74
70
68
71
A. Johannessen
73
70
64
74
S. Butraigo
73
71
65
76
G. Leemreize
73
71
64
68
T. Arensman
73
70
70
66
D. Christakos
73
68
68
67
M. Van Gils
73
71
60
72
N. Tesfatsion
72
73
60
74
N. Cemezar
72
70
71
64
J. Romo
70
75
65
66
For the riders already mentioned, it's needed for their leaders to have some sort of freak accident to throw them into the pool, but they will be toward the front for their leaders most of the time, and thus you can't rule them out. We have already mentioned twinbrother Halland Johannesen, but the duo of Thymen Arensman and Dimitrios Christakos is the most interesting to look at. Arensman comes from with fresh succes just out of the Tour de France, where he shocked the world by almost carrying the polkadot jersey all the way from stage 4 to Paris. It was evident though that he wore it due to willpower and not so much his overall qualities, and this is another testiment to that. He's not the best climber, nor is he the best timetriallist, but he's wellrounded and might be going under the radar. The same can be said about teammate Christakos who's a tad weaker everywhere, but the combination of the two aswell as Jordan Jegat an Alexandros Matsangos might lead to some interesting fireworks.
Of the Genii - Hyundai team we spot something similar with Gijs Leemreize and his teammates Papanov and Hocevar, but a lot will depend on whether or not teamleader Vansevenant get's the aforementioned succes early on.
A fair amount of riders such as Maxim Van Gils, Natnael Tesfatsion, Nik Cemezar, Javier Romo etc. can in theory upset the race, but it would require a lot of work and a lot of luck, as their limitations is equally strong to their qualities.
Let's dig a little into the riders that can be expected to win stages.
PUNCHEURS
Name
HI
MO
RES
ACC
A. Ardila
75
76
68
71
M. Vansevenant
75
70
75
76
J. Romo
75
70
74
66
M. Schmid
74
73
76
75
T. Pidcock
74
73
75
78
A. Bagioli
74
70
71
73
N. Tesfatsion
73
72
70
74
G. Aleotti
73
69
73
73
M. Jorgensen
72
74
74
69
R. Evenepoel
72
69
76
70
We have already covered the GC riders, and from that list we also find the most likely winners in the mountains, and like here the hills. Some honorable mentions need to be presented to Andrea Bagioli and Giovanni Aleotti aswell. The Le Creuset team will be very interested in getting away with either Romo or Bagioli who are both among the top favorites in a punchy final, but I mist admit I look at Pidcock quite a lot here, as he doesn't necessarily have to be the best, he just have to arrive at the line with him.
TIMETRIALLISTS
Name
TT
PRL
FL
RES
A. Leknessund
74
74
72
78
H. Forsell
73
74
66
71
M. Jorgensen
72
71
71
74
R. Evenepoel
72
72
74
76
S. Matsuda
72
74
72
73
R. Kmielkauskas
72
72
69
66
C. Perez
72
72
69
68
V. Ocampo
72
72
67
68
M. Papanov
69
73
67
70
D. Rossi
69
73
73
70
As the race kicks off with a prologue we are likely to find out first race leader in this bunch. It's a combination of riders who are strong against the clock, aswell as those who fancy the more tedious prologue. In either case Leknessund and Forsell will be looking to get away with some glory. Leknessund will also attempt to get as much time as possible, while Forsell is also the fastest rider in the race, and thus is probably looking more towards getting a head start to achieve the lead on more stages. He's also a good bet for the green jersey due to the combination of being a pre-stage favorite 5 times!
It's also here Matteo Jorgensen needs to put time into his rivals, while Evenepoel and Papanov might look at skewing the team hierarchy to their own benefit.
SPRINTERS
Name
SPR
ACC
FL
RES
H. Forsell
74
74
66
71
T. Pidcock
72
78
73
75
J. Jimenez Retana
72
75
67
66
E. Vernon
71
68
68
71
B. Girmay
71
72
71
73
S. Van Tricht
71
73
70
71
F. Vermeersch
70
74
71
71
A. Bagioli
70
73
70
71
E. Lunder
70
75
70
66
J. Stewart
70
70
71
71
As mentioned Hugo Forsell is the fastest rider, but he doesn't have the greatest positioning. He does have a superior leadout with Cannister and stagewinner from last season, Stocek by his side. He will need that help though as Thomas Pidcock will attack all stages possible to gain time. Pidcock has Florian Vermeersch and Vito Braet who should look to deliver him, so it's very likely that these two will bump heads all the way to the line.
There aren't a lot of stand out sprinters in the field but Biniam Girmay is definately an interesting rider to look out for on more than one occassion.
The entire startlist, can be found below. Best of luck to you all!
Thank you Sotd for the comprehensive preview!! Should be an interesting race across the terrains with no real stand-out favourite.
Our riders this edition aren’t particularly strong so our hopes rely on breakaways and miracle performances. It’ll be cool to see them all ride together though
Good luck all! Always enjoy this race as a chance to see who I should be going for in transfers
Very nice preview, thanks a lot! We have a relevant rider here for the first time in Tesfatsion, which is a nice sign of our team development. I'm curious if he can actually make a dent and show himself. Looking forward to this!
If Pidcock doesn't win every stage I'm gonna be throwing shit
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
I'm pretty excited for this one. Forssell as a Pot 3 with good base stats has maybe the one chance of his career to get a real result here. Top sprinter and one of the best time trialists. His flat and hill will hold him back a little, but I'm still hoping for a green jersey push from him. We've never sent a true top guy to l'Avenir before (though Skjelmose next year will be in the mix), and it would be awesome to take something home from the race.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Nice to get some mentions in the preview (apart from "What are they doing here?" though just for our guest riders Bagioli and Romo. But our own riders are nearly all in their first season and next year (and/or in two years) they should be able to shine in their own right (at least in this particular race).
I'm excited to see what a race all those youngsters will create, regarding the stat differences aren't as big as in the normal races I hope for an interesting race.
Looking forward to finally getting something from Schmid, hopefully. He hasn't been great this year so far, so this should be his chance to shine. The TT however is awfully long for him, so the GC should be no option. Let's go for some breakaways then
Apart from half of my guys who are in the Magnum - Madshus team, the others are a bit divided over several teams. I think most of them don't need to worry about working for everyone, so hope to be able to see them in some breakaways.
No pressure for our team, so let's go for breaks!
No French and only one Spanish rider in the fav' list, so let's hope the next generation is here (or with Le Creuset). Excited for the race.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
A. Ardila
T. Johannessen
M. Jorgensen
M. Schmid
T. Pidcock
M. Vansevenant
T. Chaiyasombat
G. Leemreize
D. Christakos
N. Tesfatsion
N. Cemezar
J. Romo
A. Bagioli
H. Forsell
S. Matsuda
R. Kmielkauskas
C. Perez
M. Papanov
D. Rossi
J. Jimenez Retana
)
