It’s time for the 2nd Grand Tour of the year! Espana welcomes us for the Vuelta, three intense weeks with lots of mountains. I’ll not go too much over the route, as BBL already presented it. But let’s only say that with one flatish ITT and another mountainous one, this year edition should go to a strong climber, the time trial in Mirador de Ezaro maybe helping to decide between the best of them.
But before we go to the main events, there will be four flat stages. They will help to have a good glimpse as to which should take the green jersey of the point classification – as long as the sprinters managed to finish the race in Madrid! Let’s have a look at who was sent to battle in Spain:
The sprinters
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
John Degenkolb
75
60
68
66
71
69
72
71
83
79
69
60
66
Michael Van Stayen
73
61
76
57
71
66
75
66
81
73
70
60
57
Adrien Petit
76
52
65
61
76
72
78
72
80
78
65
68
66
Ben Swift
70
57
64
66
67
64
73
65
80
76
60
57
66
Cees Bol
76
64
70
67
75
77
81
68
79
77
68
67
69
Mohamad Izzat Hilmi Abdul Halil
68
60
60
60
70
66
76
62
79
77
60
68
64
Jasper Philipsen
72
58
68
67
72
69
78
72
79
78
63
62
67
Alan Banaszek
74
61
65
63
71
73
76
59
79
81
65
70
73
Roman Lutsyshyn
70
50
54
64
69
73
74
55
79
80
58
57
70
Kaden Groves
73
61
71
65
73
72
78
65
78
77
64
67
71
Georgios Bouglas
72
64
70
58
72
67
76
53
78
78
62
67
58
Emerson Santos
76
63
64
66
71
72
76
53
78
78
70
67
74
Jannik Steimle
74
66
70
65
71
69
74
67
78
80
61
62
71
Issiaka Cisse
74
53
63
67
73
67
78
63
78
77
73
59
65
Stanislaw Aniolkowski
74
62
65
56
74
73
78
62
78
77
57
64
59
In this field, it’s difficult to look past Degenkolb. The ISA rider simply is the best sprinter in the competition, and will be expected to assert is dominance early on. With Santos, he also has the best lead-out, which should give him all freedom to win some stages, if his team works right. Van Stayen, Petit and Swift should be the German’s main contenders, the Belgian even being able to win some more hilly sprints, like in stage 15, if this one doesn’t go to the breakaway.
Speaking about Belgians, one could have noted that all of this sprinters are veterans! Let’s have a look at the younger generation, the ones who could hold to the young rider jersey for the first four stages. Philipsen and Banaszek will probably fight for this one and try to disrupt their elder’s plans.
With Lutsyshyn and Aniolkowski, Popo4Ever has two very close sprinter, so they manager will have to clearly assert a hierarchy if he doesn’t want an ego battle.
Right after this warm up, the peloton will head to the Pyrenees for three already hard stages. Here the favorites will be able to test their forces, and the KoM contenders to begin their chase.
The GC favorites
Merhawi Kudus
69
84
77
72
79
77
79
53
63
70
70
67
72
Joseph Dombrowski
70
84
75
71
80
78
78
55
60
75
67
72
71
Ryan Eastman
70
82
71
77
76
75
76
56
62
69
73
66
73
Daan Olivier
72
81
76
69
76
80
77
59
64
71
70
71
69
Pierre Latour
69
81
75
70
80
78
80
52
64
74
80
73
74
Hugh Carthy
71
81
75
67
77
76
78
56
60
69
65
65
65
Caio Godoy
68
81
76
67
75
76
77
54
59
75
71
68
67
Adam Yates
71
80
76
71
79
80
76
56
67
76
71
71
71
Bartosz Warchol
70
80
74
67
76
77
73
59
61
70
66
68
67
Kevin Inkelaar
64
80
70
64
75
76
79
56
60
74
69
69
64
Patrick Schelling
71
80
75
72
75
76
73
54
58
70
67
72
71
Matala Seboka
61
80
62
53
63
70
73
50
52
67
75
84
53
Georg Preidler
68
80
78
58
71
77
76
50
50
69
73
81
58
Davide Formolo
72
79
80
69
76
76
74
53
69
71
66
65
69
William Chiarello
71
79
75
73
73
74
77
53
63
72
73
69
71
Michail Mavrikakis
70
79
72
71
74
73
69
54
61
67
63
64
71
Francesco Bongiorno
69
79
75
68
77
77
77
61
58
69
69
65
68
Daniel Munoz
66
79
73
66
72
72
74
55
56
71
70
61
58
We have a main trio of favorites: Kudus comes with a strong support, with Warchol and Seboka at his side in the mountains. He also has a decent punch and a good physical condition which should ensure him a top result. He also is one of the best time-trialist among the climber, which always is a good thing, even though there is only one flattish time-trial in the race.
If Gazelle’s team around Dombrowski is a bit weaker in quality only, they bring a number of decent climber, which also is a valid strategy if there is a race to control. The American has a bit more punch than the Eritrean, which could be helpful in the eight mountain finishes of the race. His descending capacities could also give him an edge. Eastman might be hoping for a very strong result in the two time-trial, as he’s the best in the discipline. He’s clearly weaker than the two former riders in the more short and steep climbs, and basically has no team with him – they will probably be looking to help sprinter Van Stayen to finish the race. The American could also be looking for stage glory, but it would mean losing time early on.
Behind these three, there is a bunch of good climbers. Latour had a good result in Liechtenstein, being able to take the podium place behind the titans, and ahead of Kudus, and could repeat this kind of feat. He’s not completely alone, but as for Duolingo, his team might be more concerned about Philipsen.
Aegon brings in a team fully in support of Olivier, which could give him an edge in the fight between the second tier climbers. He’s also a decent descender.
Not many U25 in this field. So we’ll have a specific look on who could fight for the white jersey:
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Kevin Inkelaar
64
80
70
64
75
76
79
56
60
74
69
69
64
Sergio Higuita
69
78
77
65
76
78
79
60
66
75
73
64
62
SosaIvan Sosa
66
78
78
67
75
79
80
60
59
74
75
66
65
As the only one in the GC favorites list, Inkelaar certainly has the favor of the bookies for this ranking. He also has a team who could be more dedicated to him than to bring Petit home to the finish. We’ll have to suppose that this will depend on how well the Frenchman fares against Degenkolb. Higuita will hope that his team will have clearly established him as the leader, because his teammates don’t have much to envy him, except maybe his younger legs. Still, the Columbian should fight strongly, as it’s his last year in the U25 category. Interesting fact, he will be accompanied by two compatriots, with Chamorro and Jaramillo.
With a great recovery capacity and a big fighting spirit, Sosa should not be looked down. His team might not be as strong as his opponent’s, but it’s certainly not bad either.,
None of the three is really strong against the clock that will probably not be the way to decide between them.
With 4 stages rated hilly, there is not much space for the punchers. Still, four stages is still something to have, and even though there will not be a fight between the best of the PT, who will mostly be occupied elsewhere, those who are here certainly want to show some spectacle!
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Davide Formolo
72
79
80
69
76
76
74
53
69
71
66
65
69
Trakhov Dmitry Trakhov
68
69
79
65
78
74
69
55
69
75
70
69
65
Joni Kanerva
69
64
79
70
75
69
70
55
64
76
75
69
70
Amanuel Gebrezgabihier
68
70
79
66
74
74
72
53
67
69
77
66
64
Georg Preidler
68
80
78
58
71
77
76
50
50
69
73
81
58
Ivan Sosa
66
78
78
67
75
79
80
60
59
74
75
66
65
Sebastien Reichenbach
70
72
78
66
74
67
71
56
62
67
72
66
66
Alberto Bettiol
72
71
77
68
78
75
74
66
71
77
75
68
67
Sjoerd Bax
71
68
77
68
77
73
73
62
65
68
74
73
68
Martins Blums
72
77
77
68
71
73
74
63
64
70
73
78
71
Jan Tratnik
71
73
77
62
74
75
70
62
61
70
71
65
62
Sergio Higuita
69
78
77
65
76
78
79
60
66
75
73
64
62
Ronnilan Quita
74
74
77
66
75
75
73
60
71
74
83
72
66
Sarawut Sirironnachai
71
66
77
65
77
74
70
57
64
73
80
69
65
Merhawi Kudus
69
84
77
72
79
77
79
53
63
70
70
67
72
You might recognize some names in this list. Yes, some of the top punchers are also race (or, at least, young rider) favorites. We can hope for the others than the likes of Higuita, Kudus or Formolo will be too occupied by the GC to care for the hilly races.
There are some interesting duos to compete here, like the Tinkoff pair with Trakhov and Kanerva, or Quita and Sirironnachai for King Power.
Last but not least, there will be at least a small competition for the flattish ITT, with its uphill finish. Not many strongest specialists here, as you could guess.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Luca Sterbini
68
56
66
78
74
73
67
63
57
67
71
65
78
Alexander Vlasov
72
75
72
77
76
71
78
55
64
69
70
74
77
Ryan Eastman
70
82
71
77
76
75
76
56
62
69
73
66
73
Andreas Vangstad
74
72
70
77
74
75
74
60
65
68
74
74
76
Stefan De Bod
73
69
70
77
75
78
71
54
60
68
67
69
77
Jesse Sergent
76
62
66
77
64
69
66
50
58
50
67
56
77
Adrian Malori
76
59
66
77
71
70
67
56
61
65
68
62
77
Mathias Norsgaard
72
62
65
77
68
73
64
62
57
66
56
59
75
Byron Munton
67
72
72
76
72
73
74
60
60
64
70
65
75
Diego Agustin Ferreyra
72
70
71
76
71
73
72
54
68
69
73
68
75
Ethan Hayter
76
66
69
76
74
76
72
60
73
73
70
63
77
Sirak Tesfom
74
62
65
76
69
73
67
53
63
67
71
64
75
Though on paper, Sterbini is the better specialist, he might be lacking on climbing capacity and physical condition to win this one. Vlasov and Eastman could be the biggest favorites for this stage, along with Vangstad as an outsider.
But with many close riders in this competition, it could really go one way or the other.
Well, that settles this for this preview. The race begins tomorrow, so we’ll quickly have some confirmations – and, probably, some disappointments. We will meet you there.
Kudus with a chance to become the first African GT winner, Dombrowski with a chance to break the second place curse, some great story lines here. Looks like an overall rather weak field, I wonder if we could see breakaways succeed at high rates, but should be some interesting racing either way. Thanks for the preview Imladrik, looking forward to the reports!
Not sure quite what to expect from this race. It's great to have a GC candidate in the squad but I built a roster geared towards Van Stayen, but at the last minute decided to try and include Eastman in the race. Could be an important gamble as the field is race 'accessible', but with only Rachid as support it's definitely going to be a testing challenge. I just hope we can make good use of these race days unlike we did in Italy.
It should be a two-up battle for the win though, while the sprinting stages also seem to have well-defined favourites. Thanks for the preview Imladrik. Looking forward to those reports!
Hopefully Formolo will have the Paris - Nice climbing legs and not those from Liechtenstein. A stage win and maybe even a top 10 should be on the table with this startlist.
With Grosu in Giro and Formolo here, it made sense to have Van Poppel in Tour, but now I really wish I had sent him here
It would be great to see Dombrowski finally breaking that 2nd place curse, could be his best bet in doing so and maybe the last, but Kudus won't be easy to beat. When thinking myself what I would do with Dombrowski this year, the Vuelta was most likely his best shot, with most likely opponent in Kudus. Looks like I was right.
Thank you for a very nice preview! Looking forward to follow your reporting on a GT, Imladrik! Would it be possible to edit in the stage profiles in the first post, eventually a link to the route thread? It would make it a lot easier to see what stages one can expect moving on in the race, I definitely have that as a habit, and thus check the first post for it
Very curious to see how Preidler does here. Amezawa was very good in the Giro, Preidler is a lot better, which makes me fear he won’t do much, as he could be too good for breakaways, but not good enough for a solid GC. It makes for a very tricky race for us, fingers crossed Preidler is given the green light and can do well when we get to the mountains and maybe even on the hills.
Thanks for a great preview! It's always enjoyable to read
Interesting to see the battle between non GT winners. History is bound to happen atleast, and whoever of Dombrowski and Kudus (in particular) that doesn't win this will be massively dissapointed to miss out on such a great chance.
For us I'm not sure what to expect. With Mavrikakis, Chiarello and Spanopoulos we have a fair bit of climbing quality for breakaways, but that didn't really work out great in the Giro. Let's hope Chiarello can prove to be as strong as he was for Evonik in the past, because then it could be an interesting race. If not, this could be a new Giro...
I'm also somewhat interested in seeing what Bouglas can do. Farantakis had a retarded Giro, so we really need for him to overperform, to make it worth the while to have sprinters in these sort of setups. The lineup is really weak looking past Degenkolb, so it could be a lottery which of those 77-80 sprinters that hits the front at the exact right time.
Thank you for the preview and thank you for taking on your first GT.
Abdul Halil has a bit more chance of doing sth than in the Giro I reckon, but not so many opportunities of course. Top 5'(s) would be great. Sterbini the 'best' TT'ist, but don't see him finishing in the top 10 in the ITT to be fair, because of the climb indeed.
Hopefully Munoz can get some revenge for his bad Giro. Once again the competition is quite strong though. Good luck to all!
Can't wait for it! We have our weakest GT line-up here, but that fits the rather weak overall line-up here. We will have a new surprise GT-winner, and I'm rooting for Kudus to deliver this result.
Our captain is Higuita here, and we're obviously looking to win the u25 and stages. With Petelin, Jaramillo and Chamorro we have 3 great attackers, Verschaeve and Pronskiy will help that. Sweeny and Andersen are free to attack, which is what we're absolutely looking for with sprinters that should have few support and our 0-Sprinter lineup. Let's go Isostar!
No Heraklotz? Thats bad news for TDF. But the good that Petit it seems have chances for flat stages and Inkelaar can go for youth Jersey/gc or stage hunting.
Lovely to see Cisse in third place! Strong start for African cycling in what could be a historic race. Degenkolb living up to his billing is good to see, too.
Good start for Bouglas to take 4th here, although the devil is in the detail. Have he finished 3rd he would have scored quite a lot of added points. Still can’t expect better, so I’m happy.
A good start in a GT is always welcome so it is nagging to see Van Stayen doing this sort of work, even though We're used to it by now. Degenkolb should be in for a sweet race on the other hand. Congrats to ISA!
Fingers crossed Preidler gets through the first stages without any drama. Maybe we can even try our breakaway luck with Kamp or Stokbro? At least it would make our sponsors happy!
Glad tha Van Stayen is making me eat my words. More of that please! It's just annoying we can't get a train to work given how we have a squad made of sprinters. I'll take what I can get though.
