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Chrono d'Arenberg Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 14-01-2023 10:17
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 Chrono d’Arenberg
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Preview
The Chrono d’Arenberg heads into its fifth edition, having earned its spot on the calendar by requiring a very unique skillset from the competitors: time trialing with a good portion of cobblestones sprinkled in between. For the first time, we might see a repeat winner, as the three previous champions are here again. But they have some tough competition.
Riders will have to take on the arduous course twice, which will have them in the saddle for around two hours in total. 10 cobblestone sectors of varying length are to be conquered on each leg, which will throw a wrench into the hopes of pure time trialists, but they’ve typically not been enough to give pure cobblestone specialists the edge. For a more detailed impression, here’s a graph looking at the last two years, courtesy of Ulrich Ulriksen:
| FL | TT | CB | RS |  Anderberg | 78 | 76 | 78 | 76 |  Gamper | 77 | 76 | 78 | 77 |  Cataford | 74 | 79 | 67 | 75 | | Wisniowski | 80 | 74 | 83 | 76 |
Anderberg won the race for the first time last year, and it was no surprise: His skillset looks like it was crafted for this specific race. But standing in the way of what otherwise may be an automatic win for years to come is Gamper. He’s in his first year as a maxed rider and matches Anderberg in virtually every important stat. This is certainly the matchup to keep an eye on.
Cataford on the other hand perhaps doesn’t look like a top favorite on paper, but having won two years ago and coming second last year, including beating Anderberg on the second leg, it’s his track record that makes him a lock in this tier - until proven otherwise.
Then we have the somewhat unique case of Wisniowski, the second Aker rider in this group. As mentioned before, we haven’t seen cobblestone specialists even near the podium since the race’s inaugural edition, but we also haven’t had as strong a cobbler who’s that good at time trialing here. It will be interesting to follow him along and see if he earns a spot on this list.
Contenders with (some) TT and Cobble skills | FL | TT | CB | RS |  Vlatos | 72 | 81 | 68 | 71 |  Dillier | 70 | 80 | 68 | 77 |  Kung | 73 | 77 | 72 | 72 | | Van Moer | 74 | 77 | 69 | 76 |  Scotson | 72 | 76 | 75 | 70 |  Cavagna | 77 | 76 | 73 | 74 | | Schäppi | 72 | 75 | 76 | 72 |  Campbell | 73 | 75 | 72 | 67 |  Young | 71 | 74 | 71 | 72 | | Stavrakakis | 74 | 73 | 75 | 69 |  Bester | 72 | 73 | 74 | 71 |  Doull | 72 | 73 | 71 | 70 | | Van Zyl | 74 | 73 | 71 | 74 | | Per | 79 | 72 | 81 | 75 |  Dahl-Olsen | 73 | 72 | 74 | 77 |
The top time trialists, Vlatos and Dillier, have already had some success here. The Greek finished 7th last year, while Dillier even won the race in 2019. Neither has a particularly good cobbles stat, but it has proven enough. That will give hope to Van Moer, though he of course isn’t as good a time trialist as the other two.
Scotson and Schäppi are the most well-rounded in this group looking at just TT and cobbles stats, but that doesn’t guarentee success. The former actually disappointed last year, finishing just 16th. In contrast, Cavagna was 3rd here last year and he’ll hope to build on that. Other riders who are more on the TT side than the cobbles include Kung, Campbell and Young.
Time trialing skills are dropping lower and lower from there, but Stavrakakis (20th last year as a younger prospect) and Bester (8th in 2019) have shown that it’s still possible to succeed with this type of skillset - something that the likes of Doull, Van Zyl and Dahl-Olsen will cling to. Finally, we have Per in this group as somewhat of an outlier and perhaps a toned-down version of Wisniowski: High end cobbles skills and at least competence in terms of time trialing. We’ll see how far that can take him.
| FL | TT | CB | RS | | Würtz | 77 | 83 | 62 | 78 | | Durbridge | 73 | 81 | 53 | 74 | | Ganna | 76 | 80 | 66 | 81 |  Yatsevich | 70 | 80 | 64 | 81 | | Zakarin | 74 | 79 | 55 | 70 | | Sajnok | 74 | 78 | 63 | 76 |  Belevics | 76 | 78 | 62 | 72 | | Campenaerts | 71 | 78 | 62 | 73 |  Groselj | 78 | 77 | 67 | 78 |  Goldstein | 75 | 77 | 63 | 75 |
Again, pure time trialists have limited hopes for a top result here, but with a bit of cobbles skills and perhaps some luck, good results are still possible. Ganna is living proof, he finished 5th last year. Marlen Zmorka managed a 13th place, which should encourage a rider of Würtz’s caliber, and perhaps Yatsevich as well.
Durbridge and Zakarin, in contrast, are probably too weak on cobbles. Meanwhile, Sajnok and especially Goldstein were big surprises last year, finishing 11th and 6th, respectively, so keep an eye on them, and who knows what Belevics, Campenaerts and Groselj might be capable of, too.
| FL | TT | CB | RS | | Pedersen | 77 | 69 | 82 | 80 | | Kamyshev | 77 | 65 | 82 | 75 | | Trentin | 73 | 60 | 80 | 69 |  Theuns | 72 | 65 | 80 | 73 | | Vanbilsen | 78 | 63 | 80 | 74 | | Bewley | 74 | 67 | 79 | 70 | | Tiller | 74 | 67 | 78 | 75 |  Polanc | 72 | 70 | 78 | 73 | | Bohli | 74 | 70 | 77 | 75 |
Pedersen, Polanc and Bohli, who already has a podium finish here in 2019, probably have a case to have been named in the hybrid section, but you have to draw the line somewhere. In any case, they might be capable of delivering a good result. The other riders in this tier, perhaps, but less likely.
As you can see, my team is racing here, but I don't see a scenario in which any of my riders are in any way successful, so I hope you don’t mind.Spoiler | Van Moer | Brent | Aker - MOT | | Anderberg | Hampus | Aker - MOT | | Wisniowski | Lukasz | Aker - MOT | | Durbridge | Luke | Amaysim Cervélo | | Scotson | Callum | Amaysim Cervélo | | Bewley | Sam | Amaysim Cervélo | | Kaczmarek | Jakub | Binance | | Thill | Tom | Binance | | Seigle | Roman | Binance | | Uwizeyimana | Bonaventure | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Mugisha | Samuel | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Belevics | Arturs | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Resell | Erik Nordsaeter | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Trentin | Matteo | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Groselj | Matic | Cedevita | | Wright | Fred | Cedevita | | Siric | Ivan | Cedevita | | Campenaerts | Victor | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Kung | Stefan | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Ariesen | Tim | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Cataford | Alexandor | De Stijl Cycling | | Mansouri | Hamza | De Stijl Cycling | | Tiller | Rasmus | De Stijl Cycling | | Vlatos | Panagiotis | ELCO - ABEA | | Kiriakidis | Ioannidis | ELCO - ABEA | | Stavrakakis | Georgios | ELCO - ABEA | | Pszczolarski | Wojciech | Evonik - ELKO | | Polanc | Jan | Evonik - ELKO | | Krasts | Alekss | Evonik - ELKO | | Leknessund | Andreas | Gazelle | | Malecki | Kamil | Gazelle | | Godon | Dorian | Gazelle | | Würtz | Mads | Grieg-Maersk | | Dahl-Olsen | Gunnar | Grieg-Maersk | | Pedersen | Mads | Grieg-Maersk | | Goldstein | Omer | Huski Chocolate | | Kalf | Steven | Huski Chocolate | | Bloem | Joren | Huski Chocolate | | Ocampo | Victor Alejandro | Indosat Ooredoo | | Gall | Felix | Indosat Ooredoo | | Rubio | Einer Augusto | Indosat Ooredoo | | Hennis | Hasani | Isostar - Specialized | | Bester | Shaun Nick | Isostar - Specialized | | Per | David | Isostar - Specialized | | Sajnok | Szymon | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Gamper | Patrick | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Siddikov | Dilmurdjon | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Moricz | Daniel | MOL Cycling Team | | Muhindo | Jimmy | MOL Cycling Team | | Theuns | Edward | MOL Cycling Team | | Ganna | Filippo | Team Puma - SAP | | Cavagna | Remi | Team Puma - SAP | | Weinstein | Domenic | Team Puma - SAP | | Dillier | Silvan | Team UBS | | Schäppi | Martin | Team UBS | | Bohli | Tom | Team UBS | | Yatsevich | Kiril | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Zakarin | Aydar | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Kamyshev | Arman | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Ghyselinck | Jan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Doull | Owain | Trans Looney Tunes | | Vanbilsen | Kenneth | Trans Looney Tunes | | Young | Darren | Xero Racing | | Van Zyl | Johann | Xero Racing | | Vermeersch | Florian | Xero Racing | | Verona | Carlos | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Campbell | Akil | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Stroll | Lewis | Zwift Pro Cycling |
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Edited by cunego59 on 14-01-2023 10:22
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 14-01-2023 11:25
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Thanks for the preview. Good read.
Obviously not an ideal race for our best cobbler, who can't TT for life, and our best TT guy, who can't cobble for life!
Scotson as an allrounder, who will have a nice shape hopefully. He hasn't done anything special for us so far though, iirc 
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| redordead |
Posted on 14-01-2023 12:17
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It's Groselj or bust, but not really a race for my team anyway.
Thanks for the preview.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 14-01-2023 13:42
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Great preview! I'm hoping for Kung to do at least a top-10 here.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 14-01-2023 14:55
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We don't have any Fabian type riders, so this race is more of a flyer than anything else. Maybe in future years we can remedy that, but for now this is just really an obligation.
It seems like time trialing ability is more important for getting you in the mix than cobbles ability, so to the extent we have any shot of scoring here, it's probably gonna come from Belevics. With 62 cobble, it's a real long shot though.
Thanks for the preview, and the very interesting tables from Ulrich!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 14-01-2023 15:03
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I would argue that we have a very good shot at the podium with Per and an outside chance for a Top5 with Bester, so very much looking forward to the race. Can't wait!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-01-2023 17:49
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Really wanted this race for Gamper. Last chance to get us back into the promotion fight.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 14-01-2023 19:24
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We kind of lack the top hybrid type here. Not sure what to expect from our two "outliers", but hopefully Pedersen and Würtz can both aim for a top 10. Dahl Olsen could also do well with a good day.
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| ember |
Posted on 14-01-2023 19:56
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This was a big highlight of last year's season, winning it with Anderberg. That will be a lot more difficult this year, due to the PTHC status. Really hope though both him and Wisniowski can fight for at least top 5s, and one of them also challenging for the race win.
Agree with the preview that this one should probably be between Anderberg and Gamper, wth Wisniowski as a potential dark horse, depending on how it plays out. |
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Posted on 24-11-2024 14:35
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 15-01-2023 18:21
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Now that's a nice performance from Scotson, which might have been the first time, where his Fabian stat gains paid off. Obviously this fits well into our season so far 
Thanks for the great report and for picturing a hopeless Durbridge! And of course congratulations to those on the podium.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-01-2023 18:32
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Didn't have much hope, and there weren't any surprises. We just don't have a rider with any chance to compete here. A race to avoid when possible going forward.
Thanks for the report! Deserving winn in Gamper
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| ember |
Posted on 15-01-2023 19:37
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Must admit that was disappointing, as we didn't really contest for the race win, which I hoped and expected pre-race. Gamper in his own league, congratulations, Ollfardh! |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 15-01-2023 19:38
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Congrats to Oldfardh on a nice win!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 15-01-2023 21:30
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Should have sent Pedersen to Koln. Poor result from Dahl Olsen also and a poor 2nd leg from Würtz. On to the next one! Congrats on the win, Olfardh
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-01-2023 21:30
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3 riders in the points in a cobbled TT race is a pretty great result for Xero  We'll take it! Congrats Oldfart on a big win and thanks for the nice report cunego
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| redordead |
Posted on 16-01-2023 07:41
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Groselj rarely performs according to his stats, so it's nice to see him have a good day for a change. 17th is a decent result in a race where we don't have many options.
Thanks for the report and congrats to Gamper on the win
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 16-01-2023 08:28
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It's not like we had high hopes for anything, but that was a pretty terrible result.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 16-01-2023 09:08
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Not a happy bunny, Per should've done better, Bester similarly, but Hennis did very nice.
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| SotD |
Posted on 16-01-2023 09:32
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I would have liked to see Vlatos do better, seeing how the likes of Cataford and Dillier have both gotten top results on more than one occasion. Vlatos bettered his performance by 1 compared to last season - but having Stavrakakis in 7th makes up for the hope of Vlatos doing slightly better.
Kiriakidis inside the top 50 aswell to add a little bit of extra. Was it worth 2RD for him? Probably not, but you'll never know what a rider like him could have ended up with.
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 16-01-2023 10:45
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Great second leg from Kung! I've paid way too much for him in the offseason, but at least he delivers one season goal
Thanks cunego for the report and congrats Lierse with the win!
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