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Ronde Van Nederland Discussion
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 21-11-2022 09:23
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11677
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
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This preview is brought to you by SotD.
 Ronde van Nederland
Hello and welcome to the Netherlands, where Ronde van Nederland will be on the Pro Tour calender for the 5th consequtive time. The race is mainly for the durable sprinters, but as we saw in 2019 there is always room for a powerhouse attacking late to steal the glory.
The race has been won by sublime topsprinters like World Champion, Fernando Gaviria aswell as Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb and Peter Kennaugh. The latter two are not present after their statdecline, while the two former are. Fernando Gaviria is the most recent winner, and is yet again touted as the top favorite for the race.
The race is 3 stages long, and consists of 3 bumpy stages, where stage 1 finishes on a slight uphill slope, stage 2 on a flat run-in, and then the infamous stage 3, which tends to rule out a number of strong sprinter as the stage is basically touted as a puncheur stage. Still, it's usually one for the sprinters - but the stage does mix up the GC a bit as some of the weak climbing sprinters tend to be shaken here.
Let's have a look at the top favorites for the race, and their immidiate leadoutpotential.
| Name | FL | HI | SP | AC | Name | FL | HI | SP | AC |  Gaviria | 76 | 72 | 83 | 84 | Peak | 78 | 69 | 76 | 76 |  Grosu | 73 | 73 | 83 | 80 | Van Poppel | 72 | 64 | 81 | 78 |  Ewan | 75 | 71 | 83 | 81 | Contreras | 72 | 68 | 78 | 80 |  Demare | 73 | 80 | 82 | 81 | Steimle | 74 | 70 | 78 | 80 |  Coquard | 73 | 67 | 84 | 83 | Farantakis | 74 | 65 | 80 | 80 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 76 | 82 | 79 | Gunnlaugsson | 75 | 65 | 74 | 71 |  Groenewegen | 73 | 67 | 82 | 81 | De Kleijn | 70 | 75 | 74 | 75 |  Van Stayen | 73 | 76 | 81 | 73 | Van der Sande | 75 | 70 | 79 | 79 |  Manninen | 74 | 66 | 81 | 80 | Nieuwenhuis | 75 | 69 | 73 | 75 |  Lo Cicero | 70 | 62 | 82 | 75 | Walscheid | 71 | 63 | 77 | 77 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 64 | 81 | 79 | Trakhov | 68 | 79 | 69 | 75 |  Cullaigh | 74 | 66 | 80 | 81 | Pidcock | 73 | 74 | 72 | 78 |  Hsu | 75 | 67 | 80 | 79 | Darbinyan | 72 | 66 | 76 | 74 |  Swift | 70 | 64 | 80 | 76 | Lagane | 69 | 75 | 74 | 75 |
Gaviria comes with the potential to defend his title, and he does so with a very solid team around him. With Peak, Rickaert and Cherkasov in particular they are very strong in the flat sectors, and while Isostar is still somewhat looking to get the leadout just right, the raw strength of these guys should fit just perfect to this race.
Riders like Grosu and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2022/Micros/isa.png Ewan should also be as close to a perfect fit for this race as possible. In van Poppel Grosu probably has the strongest leadout of all, but whether he can survive the difficulty of the route is another question. Ewan probably have a more balanced setup around him, but time will tell if that does the trick. On paper Contreras and Santos are very solid.
We can't rule out the win for former winner Demare ofcourse, and he probably is the #1 favorite when looking at the stat combination given how strong of a puncheur he is. But given that he isn't the top favorite for the first two stages and those who are in general are good at fending off his threat on the final stage, I don't see him as the best fit - despite having a solid Steimle with him, and Ganna and Cavagna to really put the hammer down.
A bit below the above we find the likes of Van der Lijke and Van Stayen. While the latter has a very solid leadout (outside candidate) in van der Sande it's probably not likely that he will be looking to set up a train. His limited acceleration might prove to be a problem compared to van der Lijke and the others above. Van der Lijke is probably mostly concerned with having teammates like Valter and Ulissi in here to chase their own dreams, and will be very much on his own here, which could be a difficult scenario.
We can't look past the remaining top sprinters like Coquard, Groenewegen, Manninen, Cullaigh and several others, but history doesn't give them benefit of the doubt, as only the 2019 edition actually found room for sprinters with less than 70 HI in the top 5.
Given the nature of the race it wouldn't be smart to rule out the likes of  Ackermann either, but statwise he just falls outside both the sprinters and puncheur category. But he should be listed as an outsider to the top 10 atleast.
The race thus isn't only for the sprinters, and every season have seen strong puncheurs inside the secondary spots - even some close to taking the win, so let's have a look at which puncheurs we have to take into account as well. Let's call this list - Outsiders:
| Name | FL | HI | SP | AC | Name | FL | HI | SP | AC |  Lopez | 70 | 84 | 66 | 78 | Di Maggio | 63 | 80 | 63 | 72 |  Mohoric | 72 | 83 | 67 | 77 |  Izagirre | 70 | 80 | 59 | 63 |  Lutsenko | 69 | 83 | 72 | 81 |  Prevar | 72 | 80 | 67 | 73 | | Sagan | 72 | 83 | 73 | 76 | Demare | 73 | 80 | 82 | 81 | | Skujins | 70 | 83 | 68 | 76 |  Müller | 70 | 80 | 66 | 73 | | Gidich | 72 | 82 | 62 | 75 |  Turgis | 73 | 79 | 70 | 77 | | Kelderman | 70 | 82 | 67 | 72 | Trakhov | 68 | 79 | 69 | 75 |  Beltran | 69 | 81 | 66 | 76 | Kanerva | 69 | 79 | 64 | 75 | | Koretzky | 73 | 81 | 71 | 79 | Ulissi | 74 | 78 | 72 | 72 | | Vakoc | 71 | 81 | 71 | 74 | Valter | 72 | 78 | 69 | 76 | | Kwiatkowski | 72 | 81 | 67 | 75 | Gerts | 77 | 78 | 72 | 70 | | Buchmann | 71 | 81 | 65 | 73 | Reichenbach | 70 | 78 | 62 | 67 | | Ponzi | 72 | 80 | 72 | 74 | Strakhov | 69 | 78 | 61 | 70 |
Some teams have opted for the full plate of options here, but the top names in this category cearly comes as the big threat. Here we see riders such as Lopez, Sagan, Lutsenko, Skujins, Mohoric, Kelderman and Gidich being the obvious chance-takers, but it is a very long list and a lot comes down to daily form and stage development. Many teams will want to keep things together so you need a strong effort to break free from the fierce trains.
We can't entirely look past the best roulleurs either, but the number of riders that can actually make such a late jump possible is hardly as big as the two aforementioned groups. These are the better options, though.
| Name | FL | HI | SP | AC | Name | FL | HI | SP | AC | | Andersen | 81 | 65 | 76 | 74 | Brockhoff | 79 | 70 | 62 | 73 | | Manamalage | 81 | 59 | 57 | 56 | Anderberg | 78 | 69 | 60 | 73 | | Konychev | 80 | 66 | 74 | 73 | Antonijevic | 78 | 66 | 71 | 74 | | Wisniowski | 80 | 71 | 73 | 76 | Peak | 78 | 69 | 76 | 76 | | Cherkasov | 80 | 71 | 70 | 75 | Rickaert | 78 | 69 | 75 | 73 | | Mundle | 79 | 65 | 59 | 69 | Nych | 78 | 67 | 65 | 76 |
Wisniowski is one of those riders that have managed to steal a stage win in the past, but it wasn't enough to get a gap, and he was 6th in the final GC that year. Seeing the team around him, one could expect them to send multiple riders away with the likes of Andersen, Konychev, Anderberg and afore-mentioned Wisniowski, but I sense a bit of lack of fate in them as the team has also brought Mohoric as one of the top puncheurs. Whether it will be smart or if they will be in eachothers way is something that will be very interesting to follow. The likes of Mundle and Manamalage are probably here to target a stage win, as it seems unrealistic that they can survive the hills, and with a number of Gaviria domestiques on this list as well the only realistic offers I see are Brockhoff and Nych of Polar as Izagirre probably isn't high enough on the list to force them out of glory hunting.
The entire startlist follows below.
Spoiler
| Groenewegen | Dylan | Aegon - Peroni | | De Kleijn | Arvid | Aegon - Peroni | | Van der Hoorn | Taco | Aegon - Peroni | | Robeet | Ludovic | Aegon - Peroni | | Bovenhuis | Jasper | Aegon - Peroni | | Sergent | Jesse | Aegon - Peroni | | Schädlich | Lucas | Aegon - Peroni | | Kooistra | Marten | Aegon - Peroni | | Wisniowski | Lukasz | Aker - MOT | | Mohoric | Matej | Aker - MOT | | Anderberg | Hampus | Aker - MOT | | Andersen | Soren Kragh | Aker - MOT | | Hansen | Lasse Norman | Aker - MOT | | Peng | Yuan Tan | Aker - MOT | | Stokbro | Andreas | Aker - MOT | | Konychev | Alexander | Aker - MOT | | Beltran | Eduard Alexander | Cedevita | | Pogacar | Tadej | Cedevita | | Ardila | Andres Camilo | Cedevita | | Siric | Ivan | Cedevita | | Zariff | Nur Aiman | Cedevita | | Buitrago | Santiago | Cedevita | | Wright | Fred | Cedevita | | Duyvesteyn | Kees | Cedevita | | Summerhill | Danny | cycleYorkshire | | Cullaigh | Gabriel | cycleYorkshire | | Pidcock | Thomas | cycleYorkshire | | Swift | Connor | cycleYorkshire | | Albanese | Vincenzo | cycleYorkshire | | Atkins | George | cycleYorkshire | | Antonijevic | Goran | cycleYorkshire | | Suter | Joel | cycleYorkshire | | Turgis | Anthony | De Stijl Cycling | | Tiller | Rasmus | De Stijl Cycling | | Bol | Cees | De Stijl Cycling | | Cort Nielsen | Magnus | De Stijl Cycling | | Soulious | Zisis | De Stijl Cycling | | Knox | James | De Stijl Cycling | | Nur Hasan | Sandy | De Stijl Cycling | | Boutopoulos | Georgios | De Stijl Cycling | | Van der Sande | Tosh | Duolingo | | Gabburo | Davide | Duolingo | | Van Stayen | Michael | Duolingo | | Groves | Kaden | Duolingo | | Pons | Gaetan | Duolingo | | Scott | Cameron | Duolingo | | Kulikovskiy | Alexandr | Duolingo | | Szarka | Gergely | Duolingo | | Van der Lijke | Nick | EA Vesuvio | | Valter | Attila | EA Vesuvio | | Ulissi | Diego | EA Vesuvio | | Pelikan | Janos | EA Vesuvio | | Smit | Willie | EA Vesuvio | | Bax | Sjoerd | EA Vesuvio | | Geniets | Kevin | EA Vesuvio | | Gunnlaugsson | Kristofer | EA Vesuvio | | Coquard | Bryan | ELCO - ABEA | | Koretzky | Clement | ELCO - ABEA | | Farantakis | Stylianos | ELCO - ABEA | | Kortsidakis | Michail | ELCO - ABEA | | Morin | Emmanuel | ELCO - ABEA | | Vila | Aimiliano | ELCO - ABEA | | Lafay | Victor | ELCO - ABEA | | Koumpetsos | Anastasios | ELCO - ABEA | | Lopez | Miguel Angel | Evonik - ELKO | | Neilands | Krists | Evonik - ELKO | | Becis | Armands | Evonik - ELKO | | Kulppi | Olli | Evonik - ELKO | | Havik | Piotr | Evonik - ELKO | | Pszczolarski | Wojciech | Evonik - ELKO | | Ansons | Kristers | Evonik - ELKO | | Dversnes | Fredrik | Evonik - ELKO | | Lutsenko | Alexey | Gazelle | | Teunissen | Mike | Gazelle | | Bagioli | Nicola | Gazelle | | Potts | Marc | Gazelle | | Tratnik | Jan | Gazelle | | Hofland | Moreno | Gazelle | | Carcueva | Jonel | Gazelle | | Mundle | Benedikt | Gazelle | | Würtz | Mads | Grieg-Maersk | | Van der Poel | Mathieu | Grieg-Maersk | | Ringheim | Jo Kogstad | Grieg-Maersk | | De Gendt | Aime | Grieg-Maersk | | Kron | Andreas | Grieg-Maersk | | Lastra | Jonathan | Grieg-Maersk | | Norsgaard | Mathias | Grieg-Maersk | | Eekhoff | Nils | Grieg-Maersk | | Gerts | Floris | Huski Chocolate | | Grosu | Eduard | Huski Chocolate | | Van Poppel | Danny | Huski Chocolate | | Van der Kooij | Bas | Huski Chocolate | | Lammertink | Maurits | Huski Chocolate | | Hofstede | Lennard | Huski Chocolate | | Meeus | Jordi | Huski Chocolate | | Vader | Milan | Huski Chocolate | | Ewan | Caleb | ISA - Hexacta | | Vakoc | Petr | ISA - Hexacta | | Contreras | Emiliano | ISA - Hexacta | | Santos | Emerson | ISA - Hexacta | | Baska | Erik | ISA - Hexacta | | Cepeda Hernandez | Jefferson | ISA - Hexacta | | Sagiv | Guy | ISA - Hexacta | | Mraouni | Salah Eddine | ISA - Hexacta | | Gaviria | Fernando | Isostar - Specialized | | Peak | Barnabas | Isostar - Specialized | | Cherkasov | Nicolay | Isostar - Specialized | | Bolivar | Isaac | Isostar - Specialized | | Bester | Shaun Nick | Isostar - Specialized | | Rickaert | Jonas | Isostar - Specialized | | Sweeny | Harry | Isostar - Specialized | | Andersen | Idar | Isostar - Specialized | | Gidich | Yevgeniy | King Power | | Hsu | Hsuan Ping | King Power | | Quita | Ronnilan | King Power | | Menten | Milan | King Power | | Sirironnachai | Sarawut | King Power | | Chiu | Ho San | King Power | | Darbinyan | Varsham | King Power | | Stimulak | Klemen | King Power | | Kelderman | Wilco | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Manninen | Matti | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Ulloa | Jose Gerardo | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Nieuwenhuis | Joris | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Ruiz | Robinson Steven | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Beltran | Guillermo Andres | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Pira | Yesid Albeiro | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Stojnic | Veljko | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Kwiatkowski | Michal | MOL Cycling Team | | Lo Cicero | Ivano | MOL Cycling Team | | Brozyna | Piotr | MOL Cycling Team | | Walscheid | Maximilian | MOL Cycling Team | | Kenyeres | Abel | MOL Cycling Team | | Pereyra | Pedro Pablo | MOL Cycling Team | | Domagalski | Karol Andrzej | MOL Cycling Team | | Muhindo | Jimmy | MOL Cycling Team | | Sagan | Peter | Moser - Sygic | | Ponzi | Simone | Moser - Sygic | | Neuman | Dominik | Moser - Sygic | | Swift | Ben | Moser - Sygic | | Mayer | Alexandre | Moser - Sygic | | Lagane | Christopher | Moser - Sygic | | Toupalik | Adam | Moser - Sygic | | Di Maggio | Cesare | Moser - Sygic | | Altur | Marcos | Polar | | Izagirre | Ion | Polar | | Barthe | Cyril | Polar | | Garcia Cortina | Ivan | Polar | | Honore | Mikkel | Polar | | Nych | Artem | Polar | | Brockhoff | Jan | Polar | | Noia | Carlo | Polar | | Pluchkin | Aleksandr | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Prevar | Oleksandr | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Riabushenko | Aliaksandr | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Lutsyshyn | Roman | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Aniolkowski | Stanislaw | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Manamalage | Nipuna Shira | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Tanovitchii | Nicolae | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Varga | Peter | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | | Demare | Arnaud | Team Puma - SAP | | Ganna | Filippo | Team Puma - SAP | | Steimle | Jannik | Team Puma - SAP | | Meiler | Lukas | Team Puma - SAP | | Cavagna | Remi | Team Puma - SAP | | Mager | Christian | Team Puma - SAP | | Zwiehoff | Ben | Team Puma - SAP | | Niu | Yikui | Team Puma - SAP | | Buchmann | Emanuel | Team UBS | | Müller | Patrick | Team UBS | | Bohli | Tom | Team UBS | | Badilatti | Matteo | Team UBS | | Jacobs | Johan | Team UBS | | Reichenbach | Sebastien | Team UBS | | Bagioli | Andrea | Team UBS | | Abreu | Jorge | Team UBS | | Skujins | Toms | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Samolenkov | Artem | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Kamyshev | Arman | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Sulimov | Alexander | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Trakhov | Dmitry | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Strakhov | Dmitry | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Kanerva | Joni | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Vorobev | Anton | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | | Ackermann | Pascal | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Ovsyannikov | Alexandr | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Welten | Bram | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Young | Eric | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Sureda | Jaume | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Campbell | Akil | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Dewulf | Stan | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Dekker | David | Zwift Pro Cycling |
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| redordead |
Posted on 21-11-2022 10:35
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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First fun wildcard race of the season, maybe?
Thanks for the reports.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| SotD |
Posted on 21-11-2022 10:42
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
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After a worse Praha race than hoped, we really need to perform here, but Coquard and Koretzky are not the best suited riders in all honesty.
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 21-11-2022 14:30
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Posts: 1123
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Thanks SotD for the preview. Will be interesting to follow!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| knockout |
Posted on 21-11-2022 15:01
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Hopefully puncheurs work better here than on the poggio
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-11-2022 15:47
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Must win race for us, should be perfectly set for Gaviria. Thanks for the great preview!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 21-11-2022 16:59
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
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Thanks for the nice preview, SotD! And thanks in advance for the reports, Abhi.
We have two possible scorers here, none of them really top favourites. However, as we've seen in Qatar, as long as Manninen isn't number four, he is quite a consistent sprinter. Last year in TDU he did great in the hilly stages while in the yellow jersey, I wouldn't say no to a similar scenario here. Kelderman should be part of the first group if there are gaps on the final stage, but with his sprint/acceleration combo he shouldn't get more out of this than a depth result. Never say never of course. Good luck to all!
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 21-11-2022 17:06
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
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The last stage being hilly rated gives me hope for a proper Lutsenko result. So far his season has been underwhelming.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-11-2022 23:56
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
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Van Stayen and Van der Sande should find their way in a race like this, but their track record isnt the most appealing, so low expectations are our mindset here.
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| ember |
Posted on 22-11-2022 05:41
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
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Another fun race we're looking a lot forward to see how plays out. We definitely brought a top, top team here, eventhough we're without a sprinter. It's similar to our Sanremo team, we really want to be part of attacks and splits. And with Kragh, Wisniowski and Mohoric all being riders who you could fancy to even win a stage, it feels like we've got riders here able to finish a stage off, and thus go high in the GC. That was at least the thinking pre-season 
Thank you for the preview, SotD, looking forward to the report, Abhi! |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 22-11-2022 08:02
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Posts: 2666
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Should be a fun race for sure, good luck everybody!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 14:27
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| roturn |
Posted on 22-11-2022 08:12
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Always hoping Groenewegen is doing well in his home race but it`s not the most ideal terrain for pure sprinters indeed. So it`s more like going for a good stage result instead and then see what the GC brings. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-11-2022 12:30
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World Champion
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That was an exciting finish!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| SotD |
Posted on 22-11-2022 12:44
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World Champion
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Oh man, so close from Coquard... Should have started the sprint a bit later, but a chaos sprint without leadouts usually turn out OK for him. 3rd is OK, and with the surprising gaps he could have a shot at making a decent GC. It could also blow the race wide open with so many riders needing to attack.
Koretzky losing time right at the end is really sad - othewise he would have been in a great position.
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| redordead |
Posted on 22-11-2022 13:00
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Maybe it would be more fun if Beltran lost a lot more time here and then make a suicide attack on stage 3. Oh well...
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 22-11-2022 16:27
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
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Not the stage we hoped for, that's for sure. Seems like Manninen really couldn't be bothered again today, but I don't know if putting all our eggs in the Wilco-basket will be very fruitful in the end. Congratulations to cio on a great stage win, and thanks for a very fine report again to Abhishek 
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 22-11-2022 17:34
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World Champion
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Stage races are really not Grosu's cup of team this year. At least we have two riders well place for the GC. And with Grosu out of the picture, it might be Gerts' time to shine.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 22-11-2022 20:01
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
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Not sure why I keep expecting my guys to be any good at this
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| ember |
Posted on 22-11-2022 21:41
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Team Leader
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Positives: Thank you for the report, I enjoyed the read Anderberg featuring in the breakaway and making it a fight for the KoM points. Also that Mohoric managed to grab a few bonus seconds at the finish, which could be valuable if stage 3 also proves selective, as it should make a nice GC placing possible for him.
Negative: Very frustrating to see only Mohoric feature in groups less than two minutes behind Demare and the sprinters creating a gap at the very front. Seeing how it played out, we really should be able to have both Wisniowski and Kragh there. We were supposed to have several cards to play going into the final stage. Now we're only left with Mohoric, which is far from ideal  |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 23-11-2022 09:16
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
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A good old classic sprint stage. Good reaction from Manninen after a bad stage yesterday, there's definitely no shame in losing against a top sprinter like Groenewegen. Although that final Cullaigh dash, denying us a second place, really wasn't necessary
Congratulations to roturn and thank you for the nice report to Abhishek!
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