Bienvenue en France, where the second stage race of the now famous "Spring Triple Clash" is about to start - the "Race to the Sun". Having been a race for the puncheurs last year, it's time for the climbers again in 2022 - and boy, what a climber field we have!
But before going into the details about lineups and favorites, let's first take a look at the profiles:
Spoiler
A short prologue might give us a first hint at who's in form and who's not, but in any case we'll have a first race leader. Whose position will mainly be challenged by the sprinters on the next two days, although some of those not liking the least speedbump might not enjoy day 3 as much.
On stage 4, the GC favorites definitely have to put their cards on the table for the first time. The stage is hilly rated, but the final uphill section could well be hard enough to create some gaps. Day 5 will then probably be the 3rd and final chance for the sprinters - although not all might survive the lumpy parcours up front.
The sixth day then brings us the Queen Stage, with a long final climb up to the Montagne de Lure. It's one of only two mountainous stages - and the only road stage. So if you want to rely on your teammates to make the difference, it's now or never.
Stage 7 will pretty likely be taken by a breakaway - way too easy for the uphill specialists to attack, and probably too hard for most sprinters. And given what's awaiting the riders on the final day, the GC riders probably won't be unhappy to take kind of a rest day - although that's pretty relative on a 218km stage.
The race concludes with an almost 10km long uphill ITT - where climbing strength paired with good daily form and recovery will likely be most important. And maybe some decent TT skills on the first and last kilometer.
We already said it, the climbers lineup is really stacked. Yet, only one of them actually is a former winner of this race - and probably the outright favorite for this year's edition: Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier. He won here two years ago - when it last was a climbers race. In total, 4 of the 2020 Top10 are present - you'll find out which ones.
So, either mighty PHL becomes the second two-times winner - besides Trofimov - or we get a new winner. Let's take a look at the most likely candidates - and be prepared for a long list, as there are no less than 15 80+ climbers present!
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Local hero Lecuisinier should be the outright favorite to win the race. He's the single strongest climber, and clearly the fastest against the clock among the top-level climbers - be the distance short or long. Furthermore, not many other climbers can match his acceleration, which might be decisive on uphill finishes.
However, in his first race for his new team - after having travelled from ELCO - ABEA to Evonik - ELKO, or from Greece to Latvia, he clearly wasn't up to his top level yet, finishing sub-par both in the hilly stage and in the TT. He will want to improve on his 6th GC place in Tasmania.
In terms of support, Evonik bring a pretty deep climbing lineup, but none of his domestiques is likely to be able to control the race on a mountain stage. Furthermore, he only has 6 teammates by his side, with one spot remaining empty. We'll see if that rather weak support cast has an impact on his chances of succeeding.
Lachlan Morton
#2 of this list has changed teams as well during the offseason - after Amaysim's relegation, he's now riding for cycleYorkshire. And he's a well-proven GC rider, although he's known to sometimes have some off-races.
In terms of climbing strength, he's just a tad behind Lecuisinier, while being even slightly stronger on the hills. However, he loses that advantage again with clearly lower acceleration and sprint. Furthermore - and probably having a bigger impact - he's clearly slower in TTs, no matter the distance.
We'll have to see how well he has acclimatized to his new environment, as he'll ride his first race for the new team here. At least the main language hasn't changed, though.
And the team actually gives him a great - and mainly English speaking - support, with Hugh Carthy being a potential GC contender in his own right (if not for the TTs). Stephen Williams and Tim Kennaugh are two good climbers as well - at least stronger than all of Lecuisinier's teammates. So the lack of team support clearly shouldn't be an excuse for Morton - although cycleYorkshire don't fill all the spots, either.
Joseph Dombrowski
And already the next top climber who discovered a new environment during the offseason, with Dombrowski making an inner-Dutch move from Huski to Gazelle. Jo is equally strong on the climbs as Morton, but has a way better acceleration - even better than PHL. On the other hand, he's the worst time trialist out of this Top3 trio - let's see if he can make up for that deficit.
Just like the Aussie, he hasn't raced so far this year, so we don't know yet how well his new team fits him. The team does provide him with some good mountain support, with Ukranians Denys Karnulin and Anatoliy Sosnitskiy being the main domestiques on the lineup. However, none of his teammates has a climbing stat below 75 - it's called the well-known Gazelle depth. We'll see if they can push Dombrowski to the podium - or even more?
Angel Madrazo
You know the story by now - new team, new conquests?!? With Dombrowski joining Gazelle, a declining Madrazo was free to look out for a new team - which he found in (presumed) promotion contenders Bralirwa. Thanks to a wildcard, he's still allowed to participate in Paris - Nice.
His first wildcard race of the year - Qatar - was just one to warm up his legs, with a 22nd place as his highest stage result. In Portugal, at the start of February, he finally found his preferred terrain. At least that's what everyone thought. The truth is that he had a disappointing race, losing touch on a hilly stage, being far off from his top level on the closing mountain stage, and taking home only a 7th GC place. Let's see if the lack of pressure in a wildcard race can help him finally find his best legs!
While he still is one of the world's best stage racers - he's among the top climbers, and furthermore one of the better time trialists among those - his mountain support isn't overwhelming. Valens Ndayisenga should provide him some help; let's see if it's enough to fend off attacks of the top favorites.
Mark Padun Aleksandr Pluchkin
It's hard to guess which of this P4E duo - indeed, both were already riding for the same team last year! - will finally be chosen as their leader, so let's just list them both. While Padun by now is the slightly stronger climber and one of the best puncheurs among the GC favorites, Pluchkin's advantage comes in the races against the clock. So whatever race we'll get, one of these two may very well be high up in the GC.
While it's the first race of the year for Padun, Pluchkin already had two more wildcard participations. In Tasmania, he was clearly lacking his top form, only finishing 55th in the GC with a 33rd place in the TT being his best stage result. Speaking of time trialing; his 2nd wildcard was in the Copenhagen - Malmö TTT, where P4E finished 18th and didn't show a great TT form yet.
With no race day constraints to respect, Popo4Ever bring a really strong climber team; the two captains will be supported by former superstar Simon Spilak, as well as Petr Rikunov and Zouzou Andriafenomananiaina - the latter just to annoy the reporter, though. Let's see if that two-pronged approach works out!
Egan Bernal
Bernal clearly is not only the outright U25 favorite, but has grown into a really dangerous threat for the "real" GC. While he lacks some climbing skills compared to the top riders, he's the shared strongest time trialist among the favorites listed here - alongside Lecuisinier. He's really solid on the hills as well, but what really sticks out is the "red triple" in energy stats! There seems to be no way to tire him out; you really need to ride faster uphill to beat him.
He's actually making his stage race debut as a fully developed rider here. It's not his first race of the year, though, as he already participated in Copenhagen - Malmö TTT - and he did not only participate, but finished 2nd alongside his teammates!
The Colombian might however face one big disadvantage compared to some of his competitors: his team support. Robin Carpenter is the best climbing domestique by far - which honestly isn't that much. Let's see what Bernal can make out of this situation - as said before, when it comes down to a fight among leaders only, he probably won't be the first one to get tired...
Warren Barguil
The second local rider on the favorites list was forced to look for a new team, after Mapei's disband. He found a home in the neighborhood, joining Team UBS for the 2022 season. Barguil matches Bernal and Pluckin in terms of climbing skills, yet lacks some TT power. On the other hand, he likes the hills and could make a difference with his punch. And as he most loves GTs due to his great recovery, even those 8 days here might be too short for him - at least the mountains are scheduled pretty late.
We actually have quite a good point of reference, as he already competed in Portugal - 8 stages long, with the Queen stage being the final one - and unlike Madrazo, he delivered. Sure, he wasn't among the strongest on most stages, but he did enough - especially collecting bonus seconds twice - to end the race on the GC podium! This is exactly what his team needs in the fight against relegation, let's see if he can add some nice points to his tally here!
While Team UBS don't have the best support climbers either, they do have multiple solid domestiques - such as Thery Schir, Pedro Sequera or Yuriy Natarov. While none of them is amazing, with their depth there's at least the chance that one of them could have a great day in the mountain stage and really do some precious work for their new leader.
Daan Olivier
We stay at the same climbing skill, but again go slightly down in TT power. However, Olivier could make up for that with his great resistance, and he's a pretty good puncheur as well. The Dutchman wasn't quite flying last year and needs to redeem himself this year to keep Aegon clear of the relegation spots early on.
However, we don't have any indications about his 2022 form yet, as this is his first race of the year. And while Giovanni Carboni could be a great domestique for him, the rest of the team is just there to carry the bottles in the flat stages, with 60 being the highest climbing skill among them... At least they have a Unicorn (Einhorn) on their lineup, maybe his presence will empower Olivier to write his own fairy tale?
Louis Meintjes
We've arrived at the 80 climbers - the last 5 of the list (whereof just 4 will be presented though). Meintjes is the most well-balanced so-called "hybrid" rider, combining skills on any length of climbs. However, he actually lacks some acceleration to be among the top puncheurs - and moreover doesn't really like the TT bike. Just like for many others, we'll see how much of an issue that really is in the mountain TT, though.
So far, we haven't had any chance to assess his form, either, with him making his 2022 debut here. For this, he does have some decent climbing support; however, it's rather a depth support instead of a top climber, with Ruben Guerreiro being the strongest of his teammates. What can Louis do in what looks to be the final year of his team?
Bartosz Warchol
After a sub-par 2021 season, the Pole now tries his luck in PT, having joined Moser for the 2022 season. His climbing skills are identical to Meintjes', and he rides the hills pretty well, too. However, with a pretty bad recovery, the race might just be too long for him. And unfortunately, he doesn't like TTs, either. So it looks like it's far from guaranteed that he'll be more successful this year - but we'll see.
Just like many others, he hasn't raced before in 2022, so let's see how his legs are early in the season. Stat-wise, he actually gets some nice support - but we all know how strong Matala Seboka really is. Yeah, he'd be the last 80 climber on the list... Otherwise, there's not much support on the longer climbs. Not the best starting position to get over last year's disappointments - but if Warchol does, it would be even nicer then!
Thibaut Pinot
Only two more to go - and the first one is Frenchie #3, Thibaut Pinot in his final year at full strength. And given the competition, he'll definitely need that full strength, not being among the very strongest climbers or puncheurs, and even less among the stronger TTers. So chances aren't that high that he'll be the best local rider in the final GC - but who knows.
We're repeating ourselves - no racing for him in 2022 yet. But some decent support to help him get started well, with Daniel Felipe Martinez, Getachew Sendeku or Juan Osorio. All of whom are better against the clock, by the way... But ISA have surprised us so often in the last couple of years, that it still looks like a whole lot could be possible for "Tibopino"!
Kevin Inkelaar
Last but not least comes a young man who definitely left some big traces in PT last year! However, while he definitely is a good climber with a nice acceleration, he's the weakest puncheur and time trialist on the favorites list - so one wouldn't expect him to come out on top of the GC. However, his big strength last year were some very gutsy rides - let's see if he can do those as well as a maxed rider in his new team!
Inkelaar already has a similar length stage race in his legs with the Volta a Portugal. However, he only was there as a domestique for Galta - and he did a great job for his leader especially on the final stage, setting a high pace on the climb, helping his leader to finish 4th on the GC. On the downside, he didn't get any notable result on his own and showed some worrying form especially in the hilly stages.
His support cast for the mountains is pretty strong, although all of George Alexandru Stancu, Pedro Pablo Pereyra and Abel Kenyeres are pure climbers and no puncheurs - just like their leader, in fact. Let's see if that will hurt them at one point, or if that mountains-only approach is good enough.
Enough text for now, let's dive into some numbers:
Rider
Mo
TT
Hi
Res
Acc
Lecuisinier
85
78
75
80
74
Morton
84
73
76
78
67
Dombrowski
84
71
75
78
75
Madrazo
83
75
74
77
69
Padun
82
66
77
74
75
Bernal
81
78
74
80
69
Pluchkin
81
75
71
72
68
Barguil
81
70
75
77
75
Olivier
81
69
76
80
71
Carthy
81
67
75
76
69
Meintjes
80
71
78
76
69
Warchol
80
67
74
77
70
Pinot
80
65
74
79
69
Inkelaar
80
64
70
76
74
Seboka
80
53
62
70
67
Chiarello
79
73
75
74
72
Kirsch
79
71
74
73
67
Roglic
79
71
75
74
72
Formolo
79
69
80
76
71
Foss
78
76
72
79
69
Giannoutsos
78
72
72
78
68
Almeida
78
71
70
77
71
Vingegaard
78
71
70
77
66
Karnulin
78
70
74
75
70
Spilak
78
70
75
71
64
Carboni
78
69
76
73
69
Smith
78
68
75
74
74
Sosa
78
67
78
79
74
Williams
78
66
74
76
74
Stancu
78
66
69
74
71
Ndayisenga
78
65
75
68
73
Chamorro
78
65
75
76
74
Sosnitskiy
78
64
72
77
73
There are also two hilly-rated stages; let's see which specialists have come here to try and get a stage win there:
Rider
Hi
Mo
Acc
Res
Spr
Formolo
80
79
71
76
69
Prevar
80
71
73
70
67
Meintjes
78
80
69
76
61
Sosa
78
78
74
79
59
Strakhov
78
70
70
76
61
Padun
77
82
75
74
60
Guerreiro
77
76
72
73
72
Mager
77
74
71
70
60
Narvaez
77
72
74
71
73
Formolo might be the top favorite for stage 4, where we'll have a pretty long final hill, which could be too long for Prevar. But obviously we shouldn't rule out the likes of Sosa and especially Padun, who's got the highest acceleration of all riders on that list. Meintjes will surely want to try to get some bonus seconds, too.
For the flat run-in on stage 7, there's no outright favorite, but Narvaez and Guerreiro as the strongest sprinters on the list might have some advantage. In general, it's not a race attracting the big puncheurs - you'd have to move over to Tirreno - Adriatico to see them in action.
However, we'll have three flat stages, and even stage 7 might go to a sprinter depending on how hard the long climb will be ridden. So we would expect a rather dense sprinter field - let's take a look at the top shots:
Rider
Spr
Acc
Res
Fl
Hi
Coquard
84
83
74
73
67
Gaviria
83
84
76
76
72
Ewan
83
81
71
75
71
Lo Cicero
82
75
60
70
62
Samolenkov
81
79
71
74
64
Silvestre
80
81
71
78
67
Kemboi
80
80
77
78
64
Hsu
80
79
70
75
67
Moser
80
79
69
72
67
Swift
80
76
64
70
64
Dainese
79
80
75
74
68
Van der Sande
79
79
73
75
70
Riabushenko
79
77
74
76
68
Abdul Halil
79
77
66
68
60
Stallaert
79
76
68
77
67
Just like in Qatar, we'll get the big clash Coquard - Gaviria - Ewan - hopefully a great show for all spectators! Coquard should be led out by Bouglas and Koumpetsos, while Gaviria brings Peak and Rickaert - a trio that's just amazing on flat roads. Ewan will get support by Santos and Baska - those are the three teams that will most likely try to get some sprint trains working.
Stages 3 and 5 have a slightly uphill final straight - if some puncheur capabilities are required, Gaviria and Ewan might have the edge over Coquard. But let's not exclude all the others - we've seen that sprints can at times be really messy, and being lower on the favorites list isn't necessarily a disadvantage. So we can be looking forward to see those fast men in action!
We also have a prologue to get the race started - let's see if some specialists have made the trip to France:
Rider
PRL
Res
Fl
Leung
82
77
73
Kemboi
81
77
78
Larsen
80
73
77
Coquard
79
74
73
Jungels
78
75
72
Korsaeth
78
71
73
Lecuisinier
77
80
71
De Bod
77
78
73
Giannoutsos
77
78
68
Atkins
77
75
75
Pszczolarski
77
72
73
Silvestre
77
71
78
Not too many of them are here, as you can see. While Leung is the strongest rider on paper, Kemboi, Coquard and maybe Silvestre will want to at least not lose too much time, so they could take over the leader jersey after the first sprint stage - or even win the prologue outright, obviously.
In terms of GC, Lecuisinier surely wants to make use of the first stage to gain some seconds on the other GC favorites. Bernal, Madrazo and Pluchkin should be his closest rivals.
While we don't put up a list of TT specialists - because pure TT skills don't mean much in an MTT - let's still take a look at the U25 favorites:
Rider
Mo
TT
Hi
Res
Acc
Bernal
81
78
74
80
69
Inkelaar
80
64
70
76
74
Foss
78
76
72
79
69
Giannoutsos
78
72
72
78
68
Almeida
78
71
70
77
71
Sosa
78
67
78
79
74
Rikunov
77
74
73
71
66
Misbah
75
73
69
72
68
Abdurrahman
75
70
71
73
68
Elosegui
75
70
70
78
70
Van Poucke
75
64
75
71
73
Phodingam
75
61
72
70
71
As stated previously, it's difficult to look past Bernal for the white jersey. Although Inkelaar is a great climber as well, the Spaniard is just so much more well-rounded, and has a massive TT advantage. Which holds as well for Foss compared to his rivals for the final podium spot, although Giannoutsos, Almeida and Rikunov could be pretty close to him if getting the necessary freedom. Sosa will want to use his superior punch to make the difference. Let's see what the next generation of (potential) superstars has got to offer!
That's all - or even more - what had to be said pre-race. And before officially starting the race tomorrow, let's take a look at the startlist:
Great preview, thanks! Not an ideal startlist for Gaviria obviously, but we're confident in our train if it doesn't screw itself over again.
With Phinney it was between this (and sending Gaviria), Portugal and a different plan, we decided against this in favor of Gaviria-race days. Let's see whether that was a mistake. Also didn't send Tao to keep it simple for Gaviria, let's see whether that was a good idea.
That’s one hell of a preview. I’ll have to chew through it in two bites, but what I got through was a very pleasant read, despite the competition isn’t to my likings.
Thank you for the massive preview Fabianski, great to see you back to reporting!
As a wild card team, we're here to have fun more than anything. Had I been able to choose, I would have of course prefered a poor race from Madrazo here instead of in Portugal, but it would still be a nice bounce back if he can perform well here. Top 5 should be doable, depending on how he does on the hilly stage, even 2nd place could be within reach. But no pressure here, like I said.
Another intriguing prospect is Silvestre. With his good prologue stat, he could have a shot at taking yellow on one of the first sprint stages. I'm curious if we might even see a Bralirwa sprint train, given we also bring Stallaert. I'm slightly worried about him having our #1, not sure if/how that'll affect the AI.
Overall, this should be a walk in the park for Lecuisinier. I don't see where anyone would gain time on him. But stranger things have happened. Good luck to everyone!
Excited to see Dainese in action here! Will be his first outing for us, and what a field he is getting his debut in. No real expectations for a result, really, but really hope he can try to mix it and participate in the expected sprints here.
Olivier apparently can go anywhere here between 3rd and 15th. Let`s hope for 5th to 10th and active riding.
Carboni is a great support here, which wasn`t given always last season due to Carboni having a lot more leadership in 2 GTs back then, which due to Wellens is no longer needed as much. Though behind him not a lot of backup indeed, though only one stage really should see a top top domestique for Olivier and this should work with him.
Was looking forward to those unicorn jokes, probably not the last this season. He won`t have a lot of chances I guess as the sprinter competition is a lot stronger than I had expected here.
Leung the big favorite for the prologue. I hope he delivers like last season. Other than that Hsu is here for the sprint and a triple threat for the more challenging stages with Roglic, Sosa & Smith. With the strong startlist, it's just outside chances, but there should definitely be moments where we can show ourselves.
Thanks for the extensive preview!!
I guess the startlist looks fairly alright for Lecuisinier. My biggest worry is my support team here. Due to RD concerns (and the clash) neither Vosekalns nor Blums are here so Lehtinen, Gavars, Sergis and Khodayari have to save the day for him. Thought for quite some time whether i'd do a 6/8 split between Grand-Duche and here, a 7/7 split or a 8/8 split skipping Tirreno. In the end, i felt like both Lopez and Lecuisinier needed the support team so a 7/7 split looked the best - especially with the mountainious stages not looking too hard which hopefully means that the lesser domestiques can lead for a longer time...
That was really dissapointing. Had hoped atleast Giannoutsos would be a top 2 U25 rider. Coquard often messes these prologues up. He was also beat by Gaviria in Qatar.
Oh well. Let’s hope we Can Shake it off, because we can’t really afford for this to be a bad race.
This could not have gone much better for us. Madrazo the best GC rider, Silvestre the second best sprinter, though he would likely still need at least a second place to take yellow.
Really high quality report Fabianksi, that was very enjoyable to read, especially for a TT. And also pretty nice to see the top 3 favorites actually in the top 3, which is not often the case for a prologue. Although the other favorites' places only serve to confirm the randomness of this type of stage. But at least some consistency at the top.
Nailbiting report, thanks Fabianski. Really close one for Leung, congrats jph. It's good to see the top favorites on the top steps in a prologue.
Hsu is only 10 seconds back, so maybe with some luck if he has strong legs he can move into a decent position in GC in the sprint stages.
We should look to have a good race here with the team we've sent. The prologue could have been better I guess but we haven't lost too much time at all.
Good luck to the sprinters since we'll probably be sitting these stages out before things get tough!
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
It's a feeble squad from us here indeed. Let's see if we can try and find ourselves in the BOTD and maybe see if Almeida can have a go at a decent U25 classification. So far it's a good display from Rachid, matching Pluschkin's time on day one. Impressive!
Thanks fornthe comprehensive preview and firat report Fab!
Happy to see Larsen getting of to a good start. Such a short prologue can always be a bit unpredictable, but in the end the podium was certainly one that you could have guessed. A nice bonus for Larsen to take the U25 jersey. Hopefully he can keep that at least for a couple of days.
Paris - Nice 
A shame I'm only here with my C-team, but I'm looking forward to be reading the reports. Good luck to all.
